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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook


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23 minutes ago, jay2491 said:

Just moved to number 6 on yahoo, the days of getting chubb on the turn will be long gone 

I'm drafting on ESPN, where somehow he is still ranked 29th!? I'm picking 7th in a 10 team league, and in some mocks I have been able to get him in the late third round. I know my league will be smarter than this though, but I think I can still go Adams/Hopkins in the first and pair them with Chubb at pick 14. If you are able to pair Chubb with an elite WR, I'm loving that start to building a team around.

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This is pretty simple guys. Don’t overthink it.  If I’m able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to have Hunt spell him when he’s beasting. If I’m not able to get Chubb in

Chubb when Hunt returns  

Chubb hasn't taken the field once as Hunt has been used exclusively as the first team running back in the dress rehearsal. If people think Hunt isn't going to be on the better side of the split when h

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19 hours ago, brakeyawself said:

Hunt is still the more talented RB until Chubb proves otherwise.  He has not done so yet.

That’s literally all Chubb has done is prove otherwise.  In college and in the NFL.

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Just now, Ryansm11 said:

Can’t wait to draft this guy. Even if he’s a top 3 back for 10 weeks I’m happy. Get me to the playoffs, I’ll figure the rest out. 

That's kind of how I feel about it.  He's a lock(IMO) to be a top-5 back for at least half the season.  I'll take him over Connor and Mixon.  Worst case scenario, he drops from a high-end RB1 weeks 1-8 to a high-end RB2 for the remainder of the year?

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18 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

That's kind of how I feel about it.  He's a lock(IMO) to be a top-5 back for at least half the season.  I'll take him over Connor and Mixon.  Worst case scenario, he drops from a high-end RB1 weeks 1-8 to a high-end RB2 for the remainder of the year?

Exactly and by then your team will most certainly look very different than it did on draft day.

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Lol like i said earlier this guy is a beast. Barring any injury of course Chubb is going to put elite numbers.. and when that happens he will have secured his role. I mentioned this earlier many people will regret over looking this guy because of the Hunt situation. 

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Chubb got over a third of his yardage off 8 carries.  Not even derrick henry can say that. 

Everyone makes a big deal about chubb getting 996 rushing yards in 9 starts but he only got 803 rushing yards in his last 10 games and 6 rushing TDs where he was the dominate ball carrier even tho he only started 9 of those games.

 I know this excludes his 1 big game where he had over 100 yards on 3 Carries and 2 tds but let's call that lucky (I kno I kno even the lucky runs count for fantasy points)

So. 80 yards a game 0.6 rushing TDs a game he also had 15 recieving yards a game and 2 catches and 0.2 tds a game.

Total of 95 yards a game for 0.8 tds and 2 catches.

These are very good numbers. Extrapolates to 1520 yards and 12.8 tds total in 16 games. That's awesome but I don't think that's elite that's about the same as david johnson last season. (Which I'm fine with for chubb)

And maybe.. Just maybe.. a one time league rushing champion and good all around back steals some of that work. Maybe takes a couple goaline TDs or something idk.

I love chubb and want him on my team. Just trying to tamper some expectations I guess. 

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11 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

Chubb got over a third of his yardage off 8 carries.  Not even derrick henry can say that. 

Everyone makes a big deal about chubb getting 996 rushing yards in 9 starts but he only got 803 rushing yards in his last 10 games and 6 rushing TDs where he was the dominate ball carrier even tho he only started 9 of those games.

 I know this excludes his 1 big game where he had over 100 yards on 3 Carries and 2 tds but let's call that lucky (I kno I kno even the lucky runs count for fantasy points)

So. 80 yards a game 0.6 rushing TDs a game he also had 15 recieving yards a game and 2 catches and 0.2 tds a game.

Total of 95 yards a game for 0.8 tds and 2 catches.

These are very good numbers. Extrapolates to 1520 yards and 12.8 tds total in 16 games. That's awesome but I don't think that's elite that's about the same as david johnson last season. (Which I'm fine with for chubb)

And maybe.. Just maybe.. a one time league rushing champion and good all around back steals some of that work. Maybe takes a couple goaline TDs or something idk.

I love chubb and want him on my team. Just trying to tamper some expectations I guess. 

We don’t need you throwing logic at us crazed chubb drafters. Beat it. 

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4 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

Can’t wait to draft this guy. Even if he’s a top 3 back for 10 weeks I’m happy. Get me to the playoffs, I’ll figure the rest out. 

Eh. I’m not sure if I could justify that stance on a guy who is currently going 13th overall. At that price I would have a strong preference towards drafting somebody who I could at least expect to carry close to their full value into the fantasy playoffs. 

Things happen during an NFL season and player’s circumstances sometimes change, but why pay a premium for a guy who you know is going to have a wrench thrown into his situation? 

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3 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Eh. I’m not sure if I could justify that stance on a guy who is currently going 13th overall. At that price I would have a strong preference towards drafting somebody who I could at least expect to carry close to their full value into the fantasy playoffs. 

Things happen during an NFL season and player’s circumstances sometimes change, but why pay a premium for a guy who you know is going to have a wrench thrown into his situation? 

To be honest, I would’ve agreed with you any other year. Last year though James Conner got me to the playoffs and disappeared. I understand he wasn’t my first round pick, but there was a ton of value in having a top 3 back for 11 weeks. Fantasy football is all about making the playoffs, after that anything can happen. Every now and then there is one guy in the league who ends up with a unbeatable super team, but for the most part playoffs can be a coin flip. 10 weeks is a long ways into the season, maybe hunt kicks another girl by then. 

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

Chubb got over a third of his yardage off 8 carries.  Not even derrick henry can say that. 

Everyone makes a big deal about chubb getting 996 rushing yards in 9 starts but he only got 803 rushing yards in his last 10 games and 6 rushing TDs where he was the dominate ball carrier even tho he only started 9 of those games.

 I know this excludes his 1 big game where he had over 100 yards on 3 Carries and 2 tds but let's call that lucky (I kno I kno even the lucky runs count for fantasy points)

So. 80 yards a game 0.6 rushing TDs a game he also had 15 recieving yards a game and 2 catches and 0.2 tds a game.

Total of 95 yards a game for 0.8 tds and 2 catches.

These are very good numbers. Extrapolates to 1520 yards and 12.8 tds total in 16 games. That's awesome but I don't think that's elite that's about the same as david johnson last season. (Which I'm fine with for chubb)

And maybe.. Just maybe.. a one time league rushing champion and good all around back steals some of that work. Maybe takes a couple goaline TDs or something idk.

I love chubb and want him on my team. Just trying to tamper some expectations I guess. 

So he would have been like the RB 8 overall last year?  And that’s as a rookie with Duke Johnson still on the team, in a worse offense than the Browns should be in 2019.

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19 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

So he would have been like the RB 8 overall last year?  And that’s as a rookie with Duke Johnson still on the team, in a worse offense than the Browns should be in 2019.

 

I mean I said he was gonna be very good. I dont think being rookie is a knock agaisnt him we have so many awesome rookie RBS every year that it shouldnt surprise us that cubb is good or put what he did on a pedestal.

But RB 8 isnt elite. Duke johnson wasnt very much of a threat. He capped his receiving stats but so will Hilliard and kareem hunt is better than duke.

Like I said chubb will be very very good and I want him in the 2nd round but I dont have the "elite" expectations that I see alot in this thread. And i provided some stats that show it. Most chubb truthers just say "hes a beast" and so was jordan howard until he was a bum.

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20 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I mean I said he was gonna be very good. I dont think being rookie is a knock agaisnt him we have so many awesome rookie RBS every year that it shouldnt surprise us that cubb is good or put what he did on a pedestal.

But RB 8 isnt elite. Duke johnson wasnt very much of a threat. He capped his receiving stats but so will Hilliard and kareem hunt is better than duke.

Like I said chubb will be very very good and I want him in the 2nd round but I dont have the "elite" expectations that I see alot in this thread. And i provided some stats that show it. Most chubb truthers just say "hes a beast" and so was jordan howard until he was a bum.

His usage could very well go up based on a better offense and the team trusting him more.  Extrapolating stats isn’t always the answer.  He also doesn’t have to give elite production to be worth his adp, but he has the upside for it,

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1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

His usage could very well go up based on a better offense and the team trusting him more.  Extrapolating stats isn’t always the answer.  He also doesn’t have to give elite production to be worth his adp, but he has the upside for it,

 

His usage could go up but I doubt it's by much. In those 10 weeks he had 19.8 touches per game. CMC averaged just over 20 touches per game. Zeke led the league in touches by a wide margin and averaged 23.75 touches per game. So if if it goes up itll likely just be 2 or 3 more touches at most.

And I agree he doesnt need elite touches to out produce his adp. I think he will outproduce his adp I just dont think he'll jump into "elite" Territory like many think he will.

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OBJ's presence should help.

A little worried about the loss of Zeitler (guard).

Mostly, I just think it's a really unstable fantasy year.  Lots of new names at the top of drafts.  Outside of Saquan, AK47, Zeke, McCaffrey, and Chris freaking Carson (I know, not as high a pick), everyone has huge question marks regarding situation, health, and/or talent...

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