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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook


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21 hours ago, gufomel said:

This is pretty simple guys. Don’t overthink it. 

If I’m able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to have Hunt spell him when he’s beasting.

If I’m not able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to not give Hunt at least 40-50% of the RB touches when he’s eligible.

Well I think we can officially close the thread. 

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This is pretty simple guys. Don’t overthink it.  If I’m able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to have Hunt spell him when he’s beasting. If I’m not able to get Chubb in

Chubb when Hunt returns  

Chubb hasn't taken the field once as Hunt has been used exclusively as the first team running back in the dress rehearsal. If people think Hunt isn't going to be on the better side of the split when h

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21 hours ago, Magoo said:

You've summed up your own posts more than the thread.  Very few have said non-factor. Lots (like me) just don't see the touches or potential for touches as a true threat to knock his ADP a few spots for reasons that have been explained for something like 42 pages.

Well depends on what you view as his ADP. It seems to be in the 10-15 range depending on how you look at it while draft sites have it anywhere in the 10-25 range.

Without Hunt in the mix, Chubb would pretty much be a consensus top 5-7 pick. However, if Hunt was not suspended he would be going around the 25-30 range ADP wise. 

I've warmed up to Chubb a bit but I still "only" have him ranked as my 13-16 player. I expect him to play as a top 5 RB the first 12 weeks or so but once Hunt is caught up I expect it to be closer to the 10th-15th RB. So while you are only getting like 3-4 weeks of not full blown elite Chubb it's during the most critical time of the year. 

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On 8/19/2019 at 7:31 AM, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Because they want to win games? 

Look at Ladanian Tomlinson / Michael Turner.  Turner kinda flopped at the end of his career but when he was on the Chargers, he was excellent and yet was never in a timeshare with Ladanian.  As proof of how good Turner was, he went to the Falcons and immediately ran for 1699 yards and 17 TDs.  Hunt has never done that.  The Chargers did not go into a timeshare because they had possibly the greatest RB ever and they knew their best chance to win games was to play him as much as possible.

We can just agree to disagree here though.  I personally think Saquon and Zeke are so far ahead, talentwise, of Hunt that it would be a Tomlinson / Turner situation if Hunt were on NYG or Dallas.  I do not think Chubb is so far ahead that they wouldn't see the benefit of giving Hunt significant run to keep Chubb fresh.  The dropoff wouldn't be as big.

Well and that is the flaw in the argument. You mention in your last paragraph that the talent descrepancy isn't massive. Chubb is very good but he is not a generational talent. Kareem Hunt is very good but he is not a generational talent. 

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9 minutes ago, CKY12489 said:

Sorry if this question has already been answered, but what round are Chubb owners eyeing Kareem Hunt if he is available? I just confirmed with the guy who owns him in my keeper league that he is letting him go.

 

You’ll get a lot of answers to this... but here’s the rub. If you believe in Chubb enough to pick him where he’s going (late first, early second), that’s because you think he’s going to be a monster who makes it impossible for Hunt to take a huge (greater than 30-35%) of the job. If that’a true, it’s a really costly hedge to want to take Hunt where you need to take him (9th round?, 8th round?). I’d sooner not have to hold Hunt with Chubb for 8 useless weeks (including Chubb’s and other byes) and take a Hill, Thompson, Singletary type in the same spot. My 2 cents.

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5 minutes ago, oswald737 said:

 

You’ll get a lot of answers to this... but here’s the rub. If you believe in Chubb enough to pick him where he’s going (late first, early second), that’s because you think he’s going to be a monster who makes it impossible for Hunt to take a huge (greater than 30-35%) of the job. If that’a true, it’s a really costly hedge to want to take Hunt where you need to take him (9th round?, 8th round?). I’d sooner not have to hold Hunt with Chubb for 8 useless weeks (including Chubb’s and other byes) and take a Hill, Thompson, Singletary type in the same spot. My 2 cents.

 

Agree.  It depends on your bench size too.  Keep in mind that you'll be taking up a bench slot that could be used for injuries, bye weeks, and simply to speculate on players who emerge during the season.  Given the uncertainty about Hunt's role when he comes back, you need to decide if it's worth the loss of bench/roster flexibility.  If it's a big bench, then you probably need to take him around the 8th.  That's where I see him going in mocks.  Personally, if I had Chubb I'd be more interested in using the slot for Chubb's week 1 backup, in case he gets hurt weeks 1-8.  You can probably get that guy (whoever he is) at the very end of your draft and use your 8th pick on another RB/WR.

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1 minute ago, oswald737 said:

 

You’ll get a lot of answers to this... but here’s the rub. If you believe in Chubb enough to pick him where he’s going (late first, early second), that’s because you think he’s going to be a monster who makes it impossible for Hunt to take a huge (greater than 30-35%) of the job. If that’a true, it’s a really costly hedge to want to take Hunt where you need to take him (9th round?, 8th round?). I’d sooner not have to hold Hunt with Chubb for 8 useless weeks (including Chubb’s and other byes) and take a Hill, Thompson, Singletary type in the same spot. My 2 cents.

 

2 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Agree.  It depends on your bench size too.  Keep in mind that you'll be taking up a bench slot that could be used for injuries, bye weeks, and simply to speculate on players who emerge during the season.  Given the uncertainty about Hunt's role when he comes back, you need to decide if it's worth the loss of bench/roster flexibility.  If it's a big bench, then you probably need to take him around the 8th.  That's where I see him going in mocks.  Personally, if I had Chubb I'd be more interested in using the slot for Chubb's week 1 backup, in case he gets hurt weeks 1-8.  You can probably get that guy (whoever he is) at the very end of your draft and use your 8th pick on another RB/WR.

Great responses, guys! This really helps me put the situation into perspective. Chubb was my rookie keeper in this league so, I forfeited a 5th rounder for him this year. No way I'm spending anything on Kareem Hunt that high.

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52 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

Well depends on what you view as his ADP. It seems to be in the 10-15 range depending on how you look at it while draft sites have it anywhere in the 10-25 range.

Without Hunt in the mix, Chubb would pretty much be a consensus top 5-7 pick. However, if Hunt was not suspended he would be going around the 25-30 range ADP wise. 

I've warmed up to Chubb a bit but I still "only" have him ranked as my 13-16 player. I expect him to play as a top 5 RB the first 12 weeks or so but once Hunt is caught up I expect it to be closer to the 10th-15th RB. So while you are only getting like 3-4 weeks of not full blown elite Chubb it's during the most critical time of the year. 

Top 13-16 is where most of his supporters have him as well I think.  It's nitpicking imo once a player is top 15 where you pick him.

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33 minutes ago, CKY12489 said:

Sorry if this question has already been answered, but what round are Chubb owners eyeing Kareem Hunt if he is available? I just confirmed with the guy who owns him in my keeper league that he is letting him go.

In re-draft leagues with standard bench sizes (6-7 man bench), I wouldn’t take Hunt if he was available in the 16th round. It’s laughable to me that he’s going in the 8th-9th round. Even at rounds 12-16, people talk all the time about players being practically “free”. They’re not free - they cost a bench spot. And bench spots are very valuable.

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55 minutes ago, CKY12489 said:

Sorry if this question has already been answered, but what round are Chubb owners eyeing Kareem Hunt if he is available? I just confirmed with the guy who owns him in my keeper league that he is letting him go.

In a redraft league, I'm not touching Hunt if I have Chubb unless he falls to the last round or two in the draft. The only scenario where Hunt is more valuable than Chubb is if Chubb gets hurt. You're not going to start both Chubb and Hunt at the same time. Essentially when Hunt returns, either Chubb remains the lead dog or they cannibalize each other's production and are both lower end RB2s/FLEX plays. A middle round pick is way too expensive for a handcuff that will not play for half of the season.

However, one scenario that I don't see people talking about much is the chance Hunt gets traded mid-season to a RB needy team who is in contention. Hunt returns in week 9 which is at the trade deadline so teams might be looking to trade for him. I don't think the Browns will want to let Hunt walk for free at the end of the season but who knows.  

In keeper formats it's a different story because I don't think Hunt will be a Brown next year. I'd be more willing to spend a mid-round pick (9+) in that format. 

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1 hour ago, CKY12489 said:

Sorry if this question has already been answered, but what round are Chubb owners eyeing Kareem Hunt if he is available? I just confirmed with the guy who owns him in my keeper league that he is letting him go.

 

Depending on how your league handles keepers and what round you lose due to players kept, Hunt could wind up being a stash that results in him being a steal next year.

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2K rushing yards takes a huge commitment to running the ball by the staff. With Baker and OBJ, they're passing plenty.  Even if he starts off at that kind of pace, when Hunt returns, the amount of carries Chubb would have would make it foolish not to also use Hunt.   So i say, yes, its out of the question

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4 minutes ago, BrianM said:

2K rushing yards takes a huge commitment to running the ball by the staff. With Baker and OBJ, they're passing plenty.  Even if he starts off at that kind of pace, when Hunt returns, the amount of carries Chubb would have would make it foolish not to also use Hunt.   So i say, yes, its out of the question

It was a joke lol. We will never see a 2000 yard rusher again, those days are behind us. I’m hoping for 1300 and double digit touchdowns out of chubb. 

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Besides injury, what else are people concerned with? Talent, opportunity and supporting cast are all there.  Out of all the RBs outside of Saquon/CMC/Kamara...he has the least amount of question marks IMO.

I don't agree with the Hunt argument as he is not eligible until week 10 so unless he gets injured, I think you are looking at top 5 RB production.  I would venture that you would have a good look at this point if you are playoff bound or not.  The fantasy landscape changes by week so trying to look forward to week 10 to try and guess what is going to happen when he returns is almost impossible.

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On 8/19/2019 at 10:31 AM, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Because they want to win games? 

Look at Ladanian Tomlinson / Michael Turner.  Turner kinda flopped at the end of his career but when he was on the Chargers, he was excellent and yet was never in a timeshare with Ladanian.  As proof of how good Turner was, he went to the Falcons and immediately ran for 1699 yards and 17 TDs.  Hunt has never done that.  The Chargers did not go into a timeshare because they had possibly the greatest RB ever and they knew their best chance to win games was to play him as much as possible.

We can just agree to disagree here though.  I personally think Saquon and Zeke are so far ahead, talentwise, of Hunt that it would be a Tomlinson / Turner situation if Hunt were on NYG or Dallas.  I do not think Chubb is so far ahead that they wouldn't see the benefit of giving Hunt significant run to keep Chubb fresh.  The dropoff wouldn't be as big.

 

That wasn't because of Michael Turner.  It was because of their other Turner.  Norv.  An old school coach who rides his #1.

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12 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

It was a joke lol. We will never see a 2000 yard rusher again, those days are behind us. I’m hoping for 1300 and double digit touchdowns out of chubb. 

 

I wouldn't say never.  But it would have to be a star who is the only weapon on a team with a good OL, and a good enough D to keep them from ditching the run.  Zeke comes to mind, not that it's gonna happen.

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34 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

It was a joke lol. We will never see a 2000 yard rusher again, those days are behind us. I’m hoping for 1300 and double digit touchdowns out of chubb. 

 

My bad dawg.   I wouldn't say never again on a 2K rusher though, have you read the Derrick Henry thread?

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1 hour ago, Chardo said:

 

I wouldn't say never.  But it would have to be a star who is the only weapon on a team with a good OL, and a good enough D to keep them from ditching the run.  Zeke comes to mind, not that it's gonna happen.

 

I think we'll start seeing more 1000 and 1000 guys soon. We've been pretty close with several guys and as the NFL keeps evolving and the rules keep changing for passing I think it'll eventually be more common.

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1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

I think we'll start seeing more 1000 and 1000 guys soon. We've been pretty close with several guys and as the NFL keeps evolving and the rules keep changing for passing I think it'll eventually be more common.

 

He said rushing yards, not total yards (rushing+recieving) . We that being said yes I do believe we’ll see more 1k & 1k runners. 

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On 8/20/2019 at 11:26 PM, Stonej14 said:

 

I think we'll start seeing more 1000 and 1000 guys soon. We've been pretty close with several guys and as the NFL keeps evolving and the rules keep changing for passing I think it'll eventually be more common.

Given that it happened only twice in NFL history that sounded like a big claim, but if we extend the range a bit and look at 700/700 guys, then indeed we see it's happening more and more:

image.png.d0e4c9e4a40bca6b7f85dd091f89075d.png

700/700 seasons happened 12 times until 2000, then 8 times in the 2000s and already 9 times from 2011-2018. It's especially interesting to see the huge difference from 1998 onwards - I'm guessing Marshall Faulk is a big reason pass catching backs caught on.

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Oh man. He was a really good receiver last year surprisingly. Now a coach says he's gonna catch the ball more this season. I know it's hype, but he's my rb5 after Barkley CMC kamara and Elliot. I'm not worried about the hunt concerns. Hunt will settle in the 6-8 touch range, get traded, or get released due to being a bonehead.

Mixing in these two backs is gonna ruin the rhythm for them as well as the offense. Im not buying a 50-50 split for someone who was pff's #1 back last year

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On 8/20/2019 at 2:26 PM, Ryansm11 said:

It was a joke lol. We will never see a 2000 yard rusher again, those days are behind us. I’m hoping for 1300 and double digit touchdowns out of chubb. 

I would say that would be a solid year for Chubb and I would certainly take that as part of my RB stable on my team. 

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32 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

Oh man. He was a really good receiver last year surprisingly. Now a coach says he's gonna catch the ball more this season. I know it's hype, but he's my rb5 after Barkley CMC kamara and Elliot. I'm not worried about the hunt concerns. Hunt will settle in the 6-8 touch range, get traded, or get released due to being a bonehead.

Mixing in these two backs is gonna ruin the rhythm for them as well as the offense. Im not buying a 50-50 split for someone who was pff's #1 back last year

 

Really? Interesting. He's my RB8/9 on par with Conner.

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29 minutes ago, PlayTheWaivers said:

He was a really good receiver last year surprisingly.

 

Are we using strictly his stats as evidence. I'm not saying you are incorrect but looking at 29/20 isn't enough. 

Coaches look at more than just a players ability to catch when considering them quality receivers. 

What's their route tree? Can they make contested catches? Those 29 target could've been only when he was wide open.

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