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Nick Chubb 2019 Outlook


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Just now, Dr. Whom said:

He’s been a low end rb2 for a few weeks now...the writing has been on the wall

You probably shouldn't have put him in his bye week.

Oh!  You mean when he had 132 yards rushing against the best defense in the NFL.  LOL.

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This is pretty simple guys. Don’t overthink it.  If I’m able to get Chubb in my draft, the coaches would be idiots to have Hunt spell him when he’s beasting. If I’m not able to get Chubb in

Chubb when Hunt returns  

Chubb hasn't taken the field once as Hunt has been used exclusively as the first team running back in the dress rehearsal. If people think Hunt isn't going to be on the better side of the split when h

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Just now, JE7HorseGod said:

You probably shouldn't have put him in his bye week.

Oh!  You mean when he had 132 yards rushing against the best defense in the NFL.  LOL.

13.2 points is an rb2. He has almost zero chance for a td unless he breaks a long one

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Just now, Dr. Whom said:

13.2 points is an rb2. He has almost zero chance for a td unless he breaks a long one

yup. harsh truth.

more worried about the fact that mayfield sucks and kitchens is hellbent on making him a star than hunt though

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This thread is as plagued with false narrative as Mike Evans' was after the New Orleans game.

Except the case for Godwin was actually somewhat compelling due to on the field results this year.

Edited by JE7HorseGod
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1 hour ago, Zekepeak86 said:

Strange how everyone wants to buy this guy and he very well is probably keeping a lot of people in the playoff race but if any backfield is going to see a even rbbc split, its this one. The Browns have 2 very good running backs. If hunt studied at all and is up with the playbook i dont see how chubbs touches dont dwindle by roughly half. Its going to be very interesting to see. If the browns were smart both players will be on the field together more than not which gives them opportunities to both be successful. Only issue is not seeing more than 10-12 touches. Gotta think Chubb is going to be the goal line back though.

There's a chance you're right but that would make Kitchens the dumbest MF.  Which he may be but, Chubb has been the only shining light in this offense.  My guess would be that he takes a little productivity from Chubb, but mostly will be a catching back.  Maybe they'll both be on the field to keep the Def guessing as to whether they'll run it or pass it, but Hunt isn't going to be taking many runs away from Chubb.  Of course this is just my guess and I could be wrong.  We'll find out Sunday for sure.

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51 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

They don't.

They do care about their jobs though.

There were some high expectations on the Browns this year.  I don't suspect Kitchens is doing himself in any favors if the team is racking up more losses by taking the ball away from their best player and saying he is "saving Chubb for next year."

Hunt is a capable running back. It’s not like they are admitting defeat by playing him. They aren’t doing any favors to themselves by risking injury to their young star RB

Edited by bhawks489
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1 minute ago, fullonchubb said:

I DON'T KNOW WHO TO BELIEVE

I’m just throwing out possibilities. I have no idea what their game plan is. I just think it’s better to showcase Hunt and ship him off for a pick or whatever if you aren’t keeping him

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

Hunt is a capable running back. It’s not like they are admitting defeat by playing him. They aren’t doing any favors to themselves by risking injury to their young star RB

Hunt was a great back for the Chiefs, when they had the best passing game in the NFL to draw attention away from him.

What he is with the Browns is an unknown quantity.  Is he capable of outdoing what Chubb has done, facing the defenses he's faced, given the cast of characters the Browns have on a per snap basis enough to say that playing him more gives you a better chance of success?

I doubt it.  There's only one guy in the league who is rushing for more yards per game than him despite the team being a dumpster fire.

If you held on to Hunt or recently acquired him and are hopeful of some useful fantasy numbers in a flex or whatever, that's fine.  But all of this "if the team is smart" stuff, naw, I don't buy that.  If the team is smart they are playing their best players in order to win football games and save their jobs.  Their best player is Chubb.

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48 minutes ago, CookiesOmNom said:

I'm benching both Chubb and Hunt this week to see what's going to happen and hopefully we have a better idea by next week

 

I would start Chubb and bench Hunt at least for this week

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1 minute ago, JE7HorseGod said:

Hunt was a great back for the Chiefs, when they had the best passing game in the NFL to draw attention away from him.

What he is with the Browns is an unknown quantity.  Is he capable of outdoing what Chubb has done, facing the defenses he's faced, given the cast of characters the Browns have on a per snap basis enough to say that playing him more gives you a better chance of success?

I doubt it.  There's only one guy in the league who is rushing for more yards per game than him despite the team being a dumpster fire.

If you held on to Hunt or recently acquired him and are hopeful of some useful fantasy numbers in a flex or whatever, that's fine.  But all of this "if the team is smart" stuff, naw, I don't buy that.  If the team is smart they are playing their best players in order to win football games and save their jobs.  Their best player is Chubb.

Hard to say who is better. Haven’t see. Hunt play on the browns yet. True has was a great back in KC though. You don’t have to dismiss other views just because you own a certain player 

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1 minute ago, bhawks489 said:

Hard to say who is better. Haven’t see. Hunt play on the browns yet. True has was a great back in KC though. You don’t have to dismiss other views just because you own a certain player 

I'm not just dismissing them because of my bias.

I'm also dismissing them because Chubb is, objectively, a great football player.  There are a litany of stats and game films you can observe to quantify this.

Anyway, you want to play Hunt - fire away man.  No skin off my nose. 

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To be fair, i don't think Chubb is an RB1 either. He just doesn't catch as many passes you would need to make him produce without a TD, so I think he's a really high TD-dependent option. His floor is like 10 points but his ceiling without TDs isn't much higher. I honestlly view him as a little better Derrick Henry for fantasy purposes, though I think as an RB, he's elite. 

 

However, he's only getting 60% of the snaps in the past 2 games and I don't see that number increasing or decreasing with the addition of Hunt. Chubb will still get his 20 touches a game in my opinion, so he should be fine. 

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3 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

To be fair, i don't think Chubb is an RB1 either. He just doesn't catch as many passes you would need to make him produce without a TD, so I think he's a really high TD-dependent option. His floor is like 10 points but his ceiling without TDs isn't much higher. I honestlly view him as a little better Derrick Henry for fantasy purposes, though I think as an RB, he's elite. 

 

However, he's only getting 60% of the snaps in the past 2 games and I don't see that number increasing or decreasing with the addition of Hunt. Chubb will still get his 20 touches a game in my opinion, so he should be fine. 

Pretty good analysis except where you say he's not an RB1.  He's the 4th best fantasy RB in .5 ppr.  Seems like an RB1 to me.  Especially when he has the potential to go off for like 35 points which he has done.  So what 12 running backs would you take over Chubb to put him in RB2 status?

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3 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

To be fair, i don't think Chubb is an RB1 either.

In my league he is the 6th highest scoring RB.

We have 12 teams.

That's an RB1.  I suppose your mileage may vary, but that makes the whole "is he/isn't he an RB1" debate pretty vacuous and honestly uninteresting.

What he is, is the 2nd leading rusher in the NFL in terms of yards per game, a guy who rushed for 165 yards and 3 TDs against Baltimore, and a guy who has scored 6 rushing TDs on the year and caught 25 passes for 161 yards despite the star WR offseason acquisition being inconsistent, the line being a mess, the QB busting, the passing game in general being a disaster and the defense being a flop.

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3 minutes ago, fullonchubb said:

Pretty good analysis except where you say he's not an RB1.  He's the 4th best fantasy RB in .5 ppr.  Seems like an RB1 to me.  Especially when he has the potential to go off for like 35 points which he has done.  So what 12 running backs would you take over Chubb to put him in RB2 status?

 

Sorry I play in PPR only. I guess my argument is less relevant in 0.5 ppr and 0 relevanc in standard. I'd say he's a fantasy low Rb1 in 0.5 PPR.

 

2 minutes ago, JE7HorseGod said:

In my league he is the 6th highest scoring RB.

We have 12 teams.

That's an RB1.  I suppose your mileage may vary, but that makes the whole "is he/isn't he an RB1" debate pretty vacuous and honestly uninteresting.

What he is, is the 2nd leading rusher in the NFL in terms of yards per game, a guy who rushed for 165 yards and 3 TDs against Baltimore, and a guy who has scored 6 rushing TDs on the year and caught 25 passes for 161 yards despite the star WR offseason acquisition being inconsistent, the line being a mess, the QB busting, the passing game in general being a disaster and the defense being a flop.

 

I get that. He sure has been an rb1 so far. But that is using past results to predict the future, which does not always work when variables change. He hasn't been getting the snaps he's gotten before and I don't he will continue with Hunt in the mix. You can see how his lack of receptions is hurting him in 3 of the past 4 games with  13 or less points although they were against good defenses. 

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8 minutes ago, kraftwrk_5 said:

 

Yeah, he's gonna misuse Hunt now just like Chubb, lol.

Hunt will be used in short yardage situations and on special teams Kitchens knows his skillset. . . screens etc nothing of that nature.. Jarvis Landry will continue being the go to receiver followed by Antonio Callaway. Any red zone situations look for Ricky Seal Jones to be the first read, I'm thinking status quo for Chubb you know being yanked on crucial third downs etc.

Edited by CroNY
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Just now, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

You can see how his lack of receptions is hurting him in 3 of the past 4 games with  13 or less points although they were against good defenses. 

"Good defenses" is underselling it.

New England allowed one 100 yard rusher and no rushing TDs to any starting RB prior to playing the Browns.  They were undone with Baltimore's dynamic offense, which the Browns had no hope of replicating, but by and large they've been a brick wall.  He still rushed for 132 yards against them, in their gym, in the driving rain.

Predicting the future is a fool's errand IMO.  What I do is play the odds.  The odds tell me that a guy who has been this good will probably continue to be better than 11 other RBs in FF this year, because that's usually what happens with guys who are productive and talented, in spite of team circumstances.

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12 minutes ago, Itachi_is_the_goat said:

 

Sorry I play in PPR only. I guess my argument is less relevant in 0.5 ppr and 0 relevanc in standard. I'd say he's a fantasy low Rb1 in 0.5 PPR.

 

 

I get that. He sure has been an rb1 so far. But that is using past results to predict the future, which does not always work when variables change. He hasn't been getting the snaps he's gotten before and I don't he will continue with Hunt in the mix. You can see how his lack of receptions is hurting him in 3 of the past 4 games with  13 or less points although they were against good defenses. 

As the poster said, he is the overall RB4 in 0.5 PPR, that is not "fantasy low RB1" lol.

And you all keep harping on "3 of the last 4 games"...those opponents: SF, NE, Den, are the number 1, 2, and 4 overall defenses in the NFL. The fact that he even put up the numbers that he did against those juggernauts is impressive as hell. Then you factor in his monster performances against the rest of the league...I don't see where all this negativity is coming from.

As I've said, and others keep repeating, Hilliard has been getting 40% of the snaps. People who think Hunt is going to come in and Chubb's snaps are going to get cut in half don't understand basic math. It just doesn't work that way. Hunt will get Hilliards snaps, Chubb will keep largely the exact same role, with maybe a minor decrease (a few snaps per game).

But we're talking about a guy who is the overall RB4 in 0.5PPR based on average points, who has ALREADY had his bye week (so no worries moving forward), and has played 3 of the top 4 defense in the NFL over his last 4 games. People need to RELAX and start your studs.

Edited by UVA_Drew
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In half PPR Chubb is currently #5. Ahead of guys like Elliot. Fournette, Carson, Jacobs, and others. 

Peoples expectations are ******** stupid. What do you want? 30 points every week? Give me a break. He’s delivered on his ADP.

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