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James Conner 2019 Outlook


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well I am glad that Hopkins is my WR3 I mean its a good thing I have Mclaurin and Fitzgerald as my WR1 and 2    

Conner a Rotoworlder confirmed.

The above is exactly how Conner owners should be selling high on him. 2019 is going to look a lot different than 2018 in Pittsburgh.  1. Esteemed  O-line coach is gone. 2. Esteeme RB coach i

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I think ESPNs projections for Conner are way conservative. They have to be thinking he misses multiple games. 

 

Conner played 13 games last season and averaged: 

75 yards rushing per game

38 yards receiving per game

4.2 catches per game 

1 TD per game

 

With the loss of AB, this opened up 168 targets, 104 receptions, 1300 yards and 15 TDs. 

 

Conner is going from year 2 to year 3. He is an ascending player. 

 

ESPN projects him for 1,436 total yards, 12 TDs and 50 receptions. 263.4 PPR FF pts. 

 

I see him getting 2-3% usage increase across the board with the departure of AB. 

 

My projections are: 

1,853 total yards 

68 catches

15 TDs

343 PPR FF pts. 

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to the above post about ESPN projections and Conner for the upcoming season-

too many times last year we saw him pathetically underused by Marble Mouf Mike (aka "Teflon Tomlin", aka "Moosh Mouth Mike") ... recall the Bucs game, a Thursday night affair, iirc ... they opened up with Swizzle Stick in the backfield ... think Conner got maybe a dozen carries ... TD saved his night. 

wasn't the only time that JC was ignored, either ... started off gangbusters, but came back to the pack, then the injury. 

now they have what they know to be a very competent stand in with Samuels ... now, not saying "TIMESHARE, DND!!!! ZOMG!!!1!!!1!1"  but, ehhh ...

i will say this for the talking sweatsuit on the sidelines, he has shown propensity to hitch to a hoss and go ... but, man, Conner just flat out disappeared for stretches last year. 

i love the kid and his whole story ... wish him well, and ditto to his drafters. 

 

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14 minutes ago, Tenner said:

I think ESPNs projections for Conner are way conservative. They have to be thinking he misses multiple games. 

 

Conner played 13 games last season and averaged: 

75 yards rushing per game

38 yards receiving per game

4.2 catches per game 

1 TD per game

 

With the loss of AB, this opened up 168 targets, 104 receptions, 1300 yards and 15 TDs. 

 

Conner is going from year 2 to year 3. He is an ascending player. 

 

ESPN projects him for 1,436 total yards, 12 TDs and 50 receptions. 263.4 PPR FF pts. 

 

I see him getting 2-3% usage increase across the board with the departure of AB. 

 

My projections are: 

1,853 total yards 

68 catches

15 TDs

343 PPR FF pts. 

New RBs coach Eddie Faulkner was previously Jaylen Samuels' coach at NC State. I don't think Samuels is a threat to Conner's lead status or even close to it but the numbers you describe would be running Conner into the ground. Don't think that's gonna happen for a guy who broke down on the stretch.

I'd say ESPNs projections are a little too conservative but not awfully far off. Although usually I think ESPN projections are trash.

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A lot of optimism here and I get it, I owned him last year and he was so consistent.

I know it's irrational but something about James Conner as my best player just doesn't sit well with me. Anyone else feel this way despite knowing he will likely produce?

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1 minute ago, bgar15 said:

A lot of optimism here and I get it, I owned him last year and he was so consistent.

I know it's irrational but something about James Conner as my best player just doesn't sit well with me. Anyone else feel this way despite knowing he will likely produce?

 

I have this same feeling... So I usually hedge and draft Conner with another RB... Like Gurley or Cook

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16 hours ago, bigbluecrew56 said:

I got Connor but don't forget to cuff wisely with Samuels. Samuels is one of the cheaper more valuable cuffs.

 

I dont really think Samuels is the cuff.  Samuels seems like a third down specialist and if Conner goes down I wouldnt be surprised to see Snell or Edmunds get the early down work and Samuels come in on third downs.

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

I dont really think Samuels is the cuff.  Samuels seems like a third down specialist and if Conner goes down I wouldnt be surprised to see Snell or Edmunds get the early down work and Samuels come in on third downs.

Samuels was the cuff last year...

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Just now, Chwf3rd said:

 

I dont really think Samuels is the cuff.  Samuels seems like a third down specialist and if Conner goes down I wouldnt be surprised to see Snell or Edmunds get the early down work and Samuels come in on third downs.

 

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Samuels is the strong cuff to Conner. Have you been paying attention? 

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4 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

A lot of optimism here and I get it, I owned him last year and he was so consistent.

I know it's irrational but something about James Conner as my best player just doesn't sit well with me. Anyone else feel this way despite knowing he will likely produce?

It is completely irrational but I get it. He was one of the best backs in the league when healthy. He does not have the name value of some of the other RB1s like CMC, Zeke, Barkley, Kamara (and certainly is a tier below those guys, regardless) and lacks the sexiness of other RB1s like Mixon, Cook, Chubb, Jones, etc. (though he is likely to outperform most).

 

He is a very talented back in an incredibly valuable offense for fantasy purposes. For me, he is likely the safest RB available after the Big 4-5, offering a very high floor while still providing top 3-5 upside. 

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5 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

A lot of optimism here and I get it, I owned him last year and he was so consistent.

 

to hearken back to my post, here are his carries from last year: 31, 8, 15, 9, 21, 19, 24, 24, 13, 9, 13, 15, inj, inj, inj, 14. 

that's roughly 16 per, toss in his receptions, and it's 20 touches per game. 

but they went away from him for stretches last season ... after those gargantuan 24 carry consecutive weeks they scaled his carries down quite a bit ... was a tad hibbled, as well. 

just don't see this cat as a 300 touch guy ... he'll do extremely well with the 250+ he'll likely get, but he's not gonna see Bell type workhorse numbers. 

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2 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

to hearken back to my post, here are his carries from last year: 31, 8, 15, 9, 21, 19, 24, 24, 13, 9, 13, 15, inj, inj, inj, 14. 

that's roughly 16 per, toss in his receptions, and it's 20 touches per game. 

but they went away from him for stretches last season ... after those gargantuan 24 carry consecutive weeks they scaled his carries down quite a bit ... was a tad hibbled, as well. 

just don't see this cat as a 300 touch guy ... he'll do extremely well with the 250+ he'll likely get, but he's not gonna see Bell type workhorse numbers. 

He is certainly built to be a bell-cow back at 6'1 230 and has the skillset to handle all three downs. PIT has a history of giving bell-cow volume so long as the RB is capable. 

 

Last year was his first season seeing significant touches and he mostly seemed to hold up just fine. He did have his leg rolled up in what many speculated to be a high ankle sprain and was still able to recover fairly quickly and return. I think he also suffered a concussion late in a game but was able to recover in time for the following week. 

 

He accumulated 270 touches in his first season as the lead back (13 games). It would be hard to imagine a scenario that he does not exceed 300+ touches if he plays 16 games. 

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24 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

A lot of optimism here and I get it, I owned him last year and he was so consistent.

I know it's irrational but something about James Conner as my best player just doesn't sit well with me. Anyone else feel this way despite knowing he will likely produce?

 

Name value.  You're better off this year with Adam Thielen and Tyler Lockett than AJ Green and Josh Gordon, but which looks better in your lineup?

Don't worry about it man.  Take the guy you think will produce regardless of his name value and watch the points come in.

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2 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

He is certainly built to be a bell-cow back at 6'1 230 and has the skillset to handle all three downs. PIT has a history of giving bell-cow volume so long as the RB is capable. 

 

Last year was his first season seeing significant touches and he mostly seemed to hold up just fine. He did have his leg rolled up in what many speculated to be a high ankle sprain and was still able to recover fairly quickly and return. I think he also suffered a concussion late in a game but was able to recover in time for the following week. 

 

He accumulated 270 touches in his first season as the lead back (13 games). It would be hard to imagine a scenario that he does not exceed 300+ touches if he plays 16 games. 

 

look, i'm a huge fan of the kid - wish him to be the overall #1 rb and NFL MVP - he deserves all the goodness in the world. 

and his touches last year, extrapolated over 16, would've easily eclipsed 300. fact.  i get all that. 

i just think Samuels and Swizzle Stick siphon juuuuust enough off the top to keep Conner outta the super elite touch getters ... simple enough. 

now, all that being said, i take him over Mixon in a heartbeat, and it ain't even close ... Conner can make up for lesser workload by scoring double the TDs Mixon will.

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Just now, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

look, i'm a huge fan of the kid - wish him to be the overall #1 rb and NFL MVP - he deserves all the goodness in the world. 

and his touches last year, extrapolated over 16, would've easily eclipsed 300. fact.  i get all that. 

i just think Samuels and Swizzle Stick siphon juuuuust enough off the top to keep Conner outta the super elite touch getters ... simple enough. 

now, all that being said, i take him over Mixon in a heartbeat, and it ain't even close ... Conner can make up for lesser workload by scoring double the TDs Mixon will.

 

What about Chubb?

 

The Conner/Chubb/Bell/Cook/Mixon tier is very tough IMO.

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3 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

Name value.  You're better off this year with Adam Thielen and Tyler Lockett than AJ Green and Josh Gordon, but which looks better in your lineup?

Don't worry about it man.  Take the guy you think will produce regardless of his name value and watch the points come in.

Get out of here with your Josh Gordon slander. 

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5 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

What about Chubb?

 

The Conner/Chubb/Bell/Cook/Mixon tier is very tough IMO.

 

full disclosure - i have a chubby for Chubbo this year - think he's the S.O.D, by far ... i see 1,000 yards and 10+ TDs before Stompy Hunt ever even suits up. 

but as far as the rest of those jalopies? yes. take over them, yes. 

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49 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

to the above post about ESPN projections and Conner for the upcoming season-

too many times last year we saw him pathetically underused by Marble Mouf Mike (aka "Teflon Tomlin", aka "Moosh Mouth Mike") ... recall the Bucs game, a Thursday night affair, iirc ... they opened up with Swizzle Stick in the backfield ... think Conner got maybe a dozen carries ... TD saved his night. 

wasn't the only time that JC was ignored, either ... started off gangbusters, but came back to the pack, then the injury. 

now they have what they know to be a very competent stand in with Samuels ... now, not saying "TIMESHARE, DND!!!! ZOMG!!!1!!!1!1"  but, ehhh ...

i will say this for the talking sweatsuit on the sidelines, he has shown propensity to hitch to a hoss and go ... but, man, Conner just flat out disappeared for stretches last year. 

i love the kid and his whole story ... wish him well, and ditto to his drafters. 

 

I agree they went away from him to often. That Thursday the plan was to limit him though I remember, they didn’t want to overuse him on a short week. 

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3 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

I agree they went away from him to often. That Thursday the plan was to limit him though I remember, they didn’t want to overuse him on a short week. 

 

ok, i checked ... it was vs KC in week 2, not Tampa, and, yes, he had a yuuuuuge workload week 1 in Cleveland  - seems legit ... but they did criminally underuse him in both games ... Marble Mouf made a big mistake gettin' into a track meet with Kool(Aid) and the Gang ...meh. 

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4 minutes ago, bgar15 said:

 

What about Chubb?

 

The Conner/Chubb/Bell/Cook/Mixon tier is very tough IMO.

 

That is a tough tier...Personally, I'm in on Conner, Chubb and Cook.  I won't have any shares of Bell on any of my teams.  I kinda doubt I have much Mixon also.  I don't have disdain for him like Bell but I just like the other guys I mentioned better.

As for Conner, I guess I have soft spot for him after having him be the darling of my squad last year.  

Conner doesn't seem to be all that athletically gifted or anything as a runner.  But on the flip side he's pretty solid in all aspects.  And I like two things about him....First, love the schedule this year and think it sets up pretty well.  Also like that the Brown is out of the picture.  I think the Steelers often ignored the run game because the passing game was a big strength and because Brown had to see his 10-15 targets every game or he'd throw a tantrum.  I could see them being more patient with the run game and not having Conner disappear for whole halves or something.  

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40 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

to hearken back to my post, here are his carries from last year: 31, 8, 15, 9, 21, 19, 24, 24, 13, 9, 13, 15, inj, inj, inj, 14. 

that's roughly 16 per, toss in his receptions, and it's 20 touches per game. 

but they went away from him for stretches last season ... after those gargantuan 24 carry consecutive weeks they scaled his carries down quite a bit ... was a tad hibbled, as well. 

just don't see this cat as a 300 touch guy ... he'll do extremely well with the 250+ he'll likely get, but he's not gonna see Bell type workhorse numbers. 

This requires a deeper dive to understand (the carry numbers). The KC game in week 2 the Chiefs came out and dog-stomped them, the script got away quick (thankfully he was able to contribute something via his pass-catching, a pleasant surprise). The Tampa and Baltimore game ended with people saying, give the ball to James Conner more, so they did, and from that point forward it looked like Conner was gonna give us a season every bit as good as any of Bell’s.

Until the concussion against Carolina. Everyone forgets that one cause he kept playing but it was obvious it bothered him (and it looked terrible on replay). Frankly I was surprised he played the next week against Jax and I thought he looked slow and sluggish, and I also think the coaching staff was watching him closely and gave him fewer carries because of it. He was vastly improved by the Denver game, but that one got away from the Steelers as well script-wise (and Denver was hot). And then the Chargers where he was on his way to a very good game until the ankle injury. Then the last game against Cincy coming back from injury.

I thought, over the first half of the season, he looked like one of the best RBs in the league (he was RB3 at the time of his concussion, so it’s not like he’s not capable of being elite). I think he’s far more talented than everyone else seems to think, and I was especially pleased by his pass-catching skills. The ‘he’s got meh talent’ isn’t an argument I can buy. Now the Samuels, sharing stuff gives me pause, though I’m not sure having Samuels college RB coach is much of a hindrance to Conner (he was as much a TE as a RB in college and never had more than 78 carries), but there’s no doubt he looks good when he gets a chance.

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