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Alvin Kamara 2019 Outlook


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2 hours ago, Tenner said:

Sean Payton owed Teddy a shot this game and another shot in Seattle next week. Bridgewater was going to sign elsewhere and Payton made promises. 

 

That said, it will soon be the Taysom Hill show. When that happens Kamara will be back big time. 

 

Probably the best case scenario unless Brees makes a quick turnaround.  But I'm concerned Hill will get his own number called near the goalline often enough to be maddeningly frustrating and cap Kamara's TD upside.  Still an improvement on Teddy at the helm for sure.

Edited by TheINC
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4 hours ago, GangGreen89 said:

Something tells me he will be fine. The offense now must run through Kamara. 

 

Agreed, Payton will have to go back to the drawing board a little and figure out how to get Kamara much more involved.  I know they were playing from behind a lot, but Kamara only being targeted 3 times is criminal.  With Bridgewater coming into the game only down 3 points, you would think the easiest way to get him in the groove is have him feed some easy, short passes to Kamara and let him do the rest.

I think Payton is too intelligent to not have this resurrected for next week.  Especially with Teddy struggling, emphasizing the ground game and short passes will be key.

 

4 hours ago, TheINC said:

Opposing teams will be well aware of this too however.

 

This is true, but it also doesn't seem to have much of a negative effect on someone like Barkley.  He's arguably the most obvious offensive focal point in the league, with next to no offensive weapons around him, and he still puts up numbers.  Kamara is plenty talented enough, Payton is a good enough game planner, and the OL and rest of the offense around him is good enough, that I don't foresee teams being able to just stop him at will because he's expected to get the ball more.  Efficiency will probably drop, but touches should increase to offset that in fantasy.

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This is the first real action Teddy has had where the game actually meant something.  You could see he was a step slow.  Peyton will put a plan in place that allows them to be flexible on offense and put Teddy in position to succeed.  This will allow Kamara to do Kamara type things with a slight uptick in touches.

Edited by jjbooda
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1 minute ago, jjbooda said:

This is the first real action Teddy has had where the game actually meant something.  You could see he was a step slow.  Peyton will put a plan in place that allows them to be flexible on offense and put Teddy in position to succeed.  This will allow Kamara to do Kamara type things with a slight uptick in touches.

 

Not to mention the Rams' defense is a pretty tough one to come in against to get your feet wet.  Should be easier sledding for sure with a week of practice and preparing, against a bit of an easier defense.

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8 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Bilgewater is going to hurt Kamara's value. He is going to hurt every member of this teams value. He's garbage. 

This is true. But is it any different than Saquon and the Giants? David Johnson with the Cardinals? Both play on terrible teams with mediocre QB play. The saints have to game plan to feature Kamara if they want any chance at winning. I could see Kamara getting 10 plus targets a game having to dink and dunk, plus whatever rushing. Ceiling is capped but floor is still there imo. 

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9 minutes ago, johnnyboy8102 said:

 

The Saints couldn't come up with a better backup situation then this behind a 40 year old QB? Teddy and Tebow Hill is it? 

Can they get Chase Daniel back?!

Well, there's always Kaepernick, but the league that is fine with Tyreek Hill and Antonio Brown has banned him.

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1 minute ago, GoVols98 said:

This is true. But is it any different than Saquon and the Giants? David Johnson with the Cardinals? Both play on terrible teams with mediocre QB play. The saints have to game plan to feature Kamara if they want any chance at winning. I could see Kamara getting 10 plus targets a game having to dink and dunk, plus whatever rushing. Ceiling is capped but floor is still there imo. 

Yes it is different. Those teams were built with an off-season to feature that player. The Saints are built to have Brees lead that team - not some trash career backup like Bilgewater. 

Midseason QB changes rarely work. We just have to hope Bilgewater/Hill will use Kamara as a checkdown option often. Teams won't be afraid of the air game. 

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2 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Yes it is different. Those teams were built with an off-season to feature that player. The Saints are built to have Brees lead that team - not some trash career backup like Bilgewater. 

Midseason QB changes rarely work. We just have to hope Bilgewater/Hill will use Kamara as a checkdown option often. Teams won't be afraid of the air game. 

 

Do you think it will take Payton a whole off-season worth of time to decide he has to call more running plays and fewer passing plays with his backup QB?  I'm guessing there's plenty of plays already in the playbook to call Kamara's number on.  He already has a whole set of gimmick plays for Hill that they run sporadically, now he might just have to try it more rapid-fire.  

I'd also think an NFL coaching staff is pretty poor if they haven't at least somewhat prepared ahead of time for "what if our star QB and the player this whole offense is built around gets hurt?".  Do we think if Barkley got hurt that his team (who spent the whole off season planning to feature him) would then need to give Wayne Gallman 30 touches a game and require months of planning to re-jig their game plan?

New Orleans still has a top-3 OL in the NFL, and they still have a top-3 RB in Kamara.  That's a lot more than most NFL offenses have - I think a 'genius' like Sean Payton can do the math on this one.

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Just now, handyandy86 said:

 

Do you think it will take Payton a whole off-season worth of time to decide he has to call more running plays and fewer passing plays with his backup QB?  I'm guessing there's plenty of plays already in the playbook to call Kamara's number on.  He already has a whole set of gimmick plays for Hill that they run sporadically, now he might just have to try it more rapid-fire.  

I'd also think an NFL coaching staff is pretty poor if they haven't at least somewhat prepared ahead of time for "what if our star QB and the player this whole offense is built around gets hurt?".  Do we think if Barkley got hurt that his team (who spent the whole off season planning to feature him) would then need to give Wayne Gallman 30 touches a game and require months of planning to re-jig their game plan?

New Orleans still has a top-3 OL in the NFL, and they still have a top-3 RB in Kamara.  That's a lot more than most NFL offenses have - I think a 'genius' like Sean Payton can do the math on this one.

The point isn't whether or not they have the backup plan ready. The point is executing it well with a crap QB. This isn't some unknown rookie QB who may show a flash of greatness - this is some s---y career backup QB who (I read this in another thread) has the 33/36th worst TD to pass ratio. 

Whether or not Sean can scheme something up is not the point. The point is Bilgewater just sucks. I'm still starting Kamara weekly and still hold him as a RB1, but he's no longer a top 4 back as he was drafted, and we saw why yesterday. 

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9 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Yes it is different. Those teams were built with an off-season to feature that player. The Saints are built to have Brees lead that team - not some trash career backup like Bilgewater. 

Midseason QB changes rarely work. We just have to hope Bilgewater/Hill will use Kamara as a checkdown option often. Teams won't be afraid of the air game. 

Except it's not midseason, It's the 2nd week and Bridgewater has had no game experience since his injury. I'll freak out if the team looks beyond trash 2 straight weeks and Kamara gets sub 15 points in PPR in those games. I think they'll game plan, and like I said, I'm expecting A TON of check downs to Kamara. I think he can adapt to any QB and IDC what you say, Bridgewater can't he any worse than having Eli Manning as your QB.

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I think Kamara will be fine. Drew being out definitely hurts his receptions and the offense as a whole. But I think the offense has to run through him now. 

It’s hopefully only for 6 weeks, Saints have a good o-line and Sean Payton calling plays. Maybe I’m a little too optimistic though 

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