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Alvin Kamara 2019 Outlook


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3 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

The point isn't whether or not they have the backup plan ready. The point is executing it well with a crap QB. This isn't some unknown rookie QB who may show a flash of greatness - this is some s---y career backup QB who (I read this in another thread) has the 33/36th worst TD to pass ratio. 

Whether or not Sean can scheme something up is not the point. The point is Bilgewater just sucks. I'm still starting Kamara weekly and still hold him as a RB1, but he's no longer a top 4 back as he was drafted, and we saw why yesterday. 

Think that's a bit unfair imo. They weren't expecting Brees to get hurt mid game and Bridgewater was just thrown in the fire against a stud defense. We'll see what he has after a week of practice and game planning. 

Good thing I have Ekeler, Marlon Mack and Sony Michel..

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2 minutes ago, GoVols98 said:

They weren't expecting Brees to get hurt mid game and Bridgewater was just thrown in the fire against a stud defense.

I can agree with this, but also still think Bridgewater is garbage, whether he was thrown in mid-game or had an entire off-season. My only hope is the talent he has surrounding him will help his below average skill. 

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28 minutes ago, oliminator123 said:

Yes it is different. Those teams were built with an off-season to feature that player. The Saints are built to have Brees lead that team - not some trash career backup like Bilgewater. 

Midseason QB changes rarely work. We just have to hope Bilgewater/Hill will use Kamara as a checkdown option often. Teams won't be afraid of the air game. 

Hopefully yesterday isn't a sign of things to come.   Bridgewater didn't even give Kamara a glance on several plays where he looked like a good option.   TB just doesn't process the game as fast as Brees and I'm not sure he's going to get through the reads quick enough.   He looked pretty locked in on whatever his first option was or a second option on the same side of the field.  I did not see him look back to the short middle or opposite side. 

Although the Rams D also had something to do with that.

Edited by K197040
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2 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Hopefully yesterday isn't a sign of things to come.   Bridgewater didn't even give Kamara a glance on several plays where he looked like a good option.   TB just doesn't process the game as fast as Brees and I'm not sure he's going to get through the reads quick enough.   He looked pretty locked in on whatever his first option was or a second option on the same side of the field.  I did not see him look back to the short middle or opposite side. 

Although the Rams D also had something to do with that.

 

I think they'll watch film and that will get fixed. And if Bridgewater is still too inept to find Kamara they'll design plays where he's the first read. He'll get his touches, my main concern is the touches will be much lower quality with the offense taking such a big hit, that he's no longer the elite RB1 he was drafted as. 

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7 minutes ago, ccimore said:

I'm worried, but there's a chance his touches go up enough to offset, or even exceed his current production.  The offense should be entirely built around him now.  I'd be much more concerned as the Michael Thomas owner.

Unfortunately defenses will be game planning for this as well.

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15 minutes ago, ccimore said:

I'm worried, but there's a chance his touches go up enough to offset, or even exceed his current production.  The offense should be entirely built around him now.  I'd be much more concerned as the Michael Thomas owner.

 

You mean the guy who received 11 targets yesterday and was primarily Bridgewater's first read? Everyone on that offense get a downgrade with guys like Cook/Ginn/Smith/Murray becoming unstartable.

Kamara will still be a big part of the offense but his upside is obviously capped.

MT is literally the only viable WR they have and he just knows how to get open.  Bridgewater may be below average but he looked fine throwing the ball to MT yesterday.

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1 minute ago, ludawg23 said:

 

You mean the guy who received 11 targets yesterday and was primarily Bridgewater's first read? Everyone on that offense get a downgrade with guys like Cook/Ginn/Smith/Murray becoming unstartable.

Kamara will still be a big part of the offense but his upside is obviously capped.

MT is literally the only viable WR they have and he just knows how to get open.  Bridgewater may be below average but he looked fine throwing the ball to MT yesterday.

He'll get targets, but the quality of the targets will decrease.  We see this every time a star receiver loses his qb.  

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1 hour ago, oliminator123 said:

The point isn't whether or not they have the backup plan ready. The point is executing it well with a crap QB. This isn't some unknown rookie QB who may show a flash of greatness - this is some s---y career backup QB who (I read this in another thread) has the 33/36th worst TD to pass ratio. 

Whether or not Sean can scheme something up is not the point. The point is Bilgewater just sucks. I'm still starting Kamara weekly and still hold him as a RB1, but he's no longer a top 4 back as he was drafted, and we saw why yesterday. 

 

I'm not going to argue that Bridgewater is a good QB, but I think he's definitely a wild card.  He's for sure a down grade, but how much of one we'll find out over the next couple weeks.  Like where does this stat come from about him being 33/36 worst TD to pass ratio?  That's a bit of an obscure one.  Why is it based on 36 QB's?  And over what time frame?  If he is 33rd in the league then that still makes him pretty much tops among backup QB's.  

He's also not your typical "career backup".  He was a starter as a rookie in 2014, and then started again in 2015, and led the Vikings to an 11-5 record in 2015.  Then in 2016 his leg pretty much broke clean in half, and after a lengthy recovery he landed in New Orleans as Brees' backup.  Where Payton seems to like him enough that he's paying him $7 million a year to be the backup. 

Like I said, I don't think Bridgewater will be great.  But I also think your view of him is a little off - we're not talking about Nathan Peterman here.  Bridgewater in 2015 was a game manager who had some legs, but mostly deferred to AP and the ground game.  That's all he needs to be again in 2019.

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2 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

I'm not going to argue that Bridgewater is a good QB, but I think he's definitely a wild card.  He's for sure a down grade, but how much of one we'll find out over the next couple weeks.  Like where does this stat come from about him being 33/36 worst TD to pass ratio?  That's a bit of an obscure one.  Why is it based on 36 QB's?  And over what time frame?  If he is 33rd in the league then that still makes him pretty much tops among backup QB's.  

He's also not your typical "career backup".  He was a starter as a rookie in 2014, and then started again in 2015, and led the Vikings to an 11-5 record in 2015.  Then in 2016 his leg pretty much broke clean in half, and after a lengthy recovery he landed in New Orleans as Brees' backup.  Where Payton seems to like him enough that he's paying him $7 million a year to be the backup. 

Like I said, I don't think Bridgewater will be great.  But I also think your view of him is a little off - we're not talking about Nathan Peterman here.  Bridgewater in 2015 was a game manager who had some legs, but mostly deferred to AP and the ground game.  That's all he needs to be again in 2019.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RotoPat/status/1173612147055714304

This is what I was referring to. 

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We have two tough games coming up back to back @SEA and Home vs Cowboys. Then a cupcake game against the Bucs but then we're @JAX and @CHI. 

All of this with Teddy Boring-Game at QB. Yards and points will be hard to come by. Wins will be hard to come by. The good news is that after this 5 game stretch the rest of the schedule is Real Juicy. So if you are a gambling man it's perfect time to send some low ball offers to Kamara and Michael Thomas owners. 

 

Edited by Cdub2k
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1 hour ago, ccimore said:

I'm worried, but there's a chance his touches go up enough to offset, or even exceed his current production.  The offense should be entirely built around him now.  I'd be much more concerned as the Michael Thomas owner.

Nothing is going to offset Bridgewater!

 

A top 3 pick just turned into a mid second rounder in one fell swoop

 

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53 minutes ago, Asian Sensation said:

 

You’re forgetting one minor detail. Vikings were a top 5 Defense in 2015. 

 

My point is in reference to Kamara's fantasy success, not overall team success. For fantasy purposes I could care less what the Saints' record is over the next few weeks. 

Vikings also had a top 5 rushing offense with Bridgwater at QB. Vikings had a solid o-line and Bridgewater was able to keep teams honest enough that AP could go to work. 

That's really all this is about - should AK owners panic that Bridgewater will be so bad AK's value in fantasy will tank? History would tell us no, and that if Payton can focus more on the run this could still be a top rushing offense. 

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