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Alvin Kamara 2019 Outlook


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Pros: 4th in Receptions among RBs 4th in Targets among RBs 5th in Reception Yards among RBs 2nd highest amount of Red Zone Carries among RBs (51) 2nd Highest amount of Carries

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2 hours ago, dfstout said:

How early is too early? He seems to be a consensus top 4 pick and most would take him at 2...

I don't think there is such thing as too early for Kamara. It's entirely reasonable to have him ranked #1 overall, especially in any PPR formats. If he's your guy, go ahead and grab him. Like the user above me said, there's really not much of a case against AK being a top flight stud. 

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Kamara set the all-time record for RB fantasy points over a 4 week stretch with Ingram out. Safe to say that even a lot of regression from that production gives him a top 5 RB floor barring injury. 

 

And Lat Murray is good in the RZ (great TD conversion rate over the past 3 yrs under 3 different playcallers). Lots of upside for both RBs.

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Thing about rb is the injury bug. I like kamara because he doesnt get 20 carries which often leads to injury. Plus he is in a contact year.

1. Sequon

 

2.Kamara i see them give him a little more run in the run game, top 5 offense which leads to more tds redzone/longer drive, will catch 85 passes, less square hits. Contract year.

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2 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

Thing about rb is the injury bug. I like kamara because he doesnt get 20 carries which often leads to injury. Plus he is in a contact year.

1. Sequon

 

2.Kamara i see them give him a little more run in the run game, top 5 offense which leads to more tds redzone/longer drive, will catch 85 passes, less square hits. Contract year.

 

This is not Kamara's contract year. 

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The thing i worry about kamara is he can get game scripted out of games saints are beating people by 21. In the redskins game and the bengals game he had under 12 ppr points. I am not saying to avoid kamara but i think cmac and zeke both have a far better ceiling.I do not think sean payton signed l murray to not be used at all. kamara is of course worthy of his draft selection but I could see a scenario where kamara finishes outside of the top 6 fantasy rb.

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  • 3 weeks later...
5 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I plan on taking him at #2 in my main league, assuming Barkley goes first. In PPR formats, though, I think it is totally justifiable to go AK at #1. 

I have him at 3.

1. Barkley

2. CMC

3. AK

Barkley/ CMC will get more carries and similar catches and is the unquestioned goalline back.

 

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4 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I have him at 3.

1. Barkley

2. CMC

3. AK

Barkley/ CMC will get more carries and similar catches and is the unquestioned goalline back.

 

I wouldn't fault somebody for taking any of those guys #1. A case could be made for each of them. For what it's worth, Kamara had more rushing TDs last season (14) than Barkley (11) and CMC (7) and they were both the unquestioned goalline backs for their teams at that point. Also, one could argue that Kamara will have less competition from Murray for those carries than he did from Ingram. 

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12 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I wouldn't fault somebody for taking any of those guys #1. A case could be made for each of them. For what it's worth, Kamara had more rushing TDs last season (14) than Barkley (11) and CMC (7) and they were both the unquestioned goalline backs for their teams at that point. Also, one could argue that Kamara will have less competition from Murray for those carries than he did from Ingram. 

This is exactly what I am thinking. Kamara will have less competition from Murray compared to Ingram. And yes, I play in PPR league and I have the first pick. The league manager determines pick way in advance. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
2 hours ago, dlionsfan901 said:

Thinking of taking this stud #1 in a ppr 12 man.  My gut tells me he’s going to finish #1.  Who else is marching towards the same?

 

Over Zeke maybe, Saquon eeesh I dunno. Thats a tough nut to crack. What If Barkely does better then last year, very possible he was a rookie. He going to be feasting on dump off passes the whole year. Even more so I think, if Daniel Jones takes over at QB. 

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On 8/8/2019 at 1:36 PM, nmartinez12443 said:

I have him at 3.

1. Barkley

2. CMC

3. AK

Barkley/ CMC will get more carries and similar catches and is the unquestioned goalline back.

 

Check out today's yahoo blurb for CMC - they're apparently trying to find a back to take the goal line work.

May or may not work out that way.

One thing that Kamara, and Zeke, have that CMC and Barkley don't: elite lines.

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20 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Barkley should be #1 on all formats.  It's not even close. 

Disagree - that offense aside from Barkley is historically bad and there are going to be a lot of stacked lines this year with ODB gone. I certainly wouldn't knock anyone for taking him #1 and the talent is there of course, but he does not come without risk. Kamara/CMC/Zeke (signed of course) all have legit cases to be made.

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13 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Barkley should be #1 on all formats.  It's not even close. 

 

I mean it's not that crazy honestly. In full PPR , AKamara and CMC are right behind him . For me it's an easy choice , Id go Barkely all the time. But he's on the worst offense and O-line out of the bunch. That matters however you want to slice it . Just a freak of nature tho, his talent alone will put up bonker numbers as we've witnessed already last season. 

4 minutes ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Check out today's yahoo blurb for CMC - they're apparently trying to find a back to take the goal line work.

May or may not work out that way.

One thing that Kamara, and Zeke, have that CMC and Barkley don't: elite lines.

 

I read the same thing, who knows tho really. Maybe it's just some BS preseason talk , maybe not. He is actually very good at the GL I had him last year. I mean they don't even have a decent backup RB ...Cameron Artis Payne , they're gonna give him the GL carries , I don't think so lol . And besides the O-lines , Kamara is on an elite offense which is a huge plus for him. Cowboys and Panthers are average to above average offenses. And the Giants are ..... well the Giants. If all things we're equal and Barkely was playing on a great offense with a future HOF QB . Don't even get me started. If healthy he will be the consensus #1 pick for years to come , the Giants are only going to get better which will raise his ceiling sky high. 

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9 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Barkley should be #1 on all formats.  It's not even close. 

I disagree.

Between Barkley, Zeke, and AK, Barkley plays on by far the worst offense with the worst line and the worst QB and worst receiving corps.

Indeed, part of Barkley's appeal is the lack of talent around him.  He has basically 0 competition for touches.

2018, in my .75ppr:

Barkley - 15 TDs, 371.05 pts, 352 touches, 1.05 ppt

Kamara - 18 TDs, 336.95 pts, 275 touches, 1.23 ppt

Zeke - 9 TDs, 318.85 pts, 381 touches, .84 ppt

Barkley still looks great, but!

Kamara is likely to increase his usage this year.  Give him 25 more touches and his points rise to 367.7, right in line with Saquan. 

Zeke had an inefficient year (for him) behind a beat up line in an offense that had no receiving threats and sputtered for the first half of the season.  With a healthy line, Cooper there from the beginning, and positive TD regression (only had 6 rushing) Zeke could jump right up there.  Let's give him 350 touches at closer to 1 point per (assuming an uptick in TDs and yards) and we're in Barkley territory. 

Barkley, as great a talent as he is, had an exceptional year.  The question is if that was something like his ceiling.  He had 2k+ yards and 15 TDs, a tough feat to repeat.  The line and QB are the same, but the threat of OBJ is gone.  The Giants don't have anyone defenses have to worry about getting loose behind them.  I don't expect a very significant drop off, but neither do I necessarily expect an increase in production.  And Barkley got at least 1 very lucky TD (I remember bc it was a 12 point swing in my opponent's favor) - Engram caught a long pass and was tackled at the goal line.  Replay showed he scored, but the Giants (quite reasonably) didn't challenge and just let Saquan take it in from a foot out on the next play.  The Giants have the same offensive line, the same declining QB, and worse weapons outside of Barkley. 

Long story summarized: there are good reasons to expect an increase in production for Kamara and Zeke, but not necessarily Saquan.  Having said that, those two increasing production brings them up to Barkley's level, or a little better at most, if he simply repeats what he did last year.

I'm definitely not arguing against taking Barkley #1.  I'd probably pull that trigger if I had the opportunity myself.  Just trying to give a different perspective than the conventional wisdom, and note that it's not as definitive a choice as it may first appear. 

But outside of those 3, and maaaaaybe CMC, the drop off into the unknown is massive. 

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6 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Give me the guy with otherworldly talent and 350+ touches every time.  Love Kamara, but sorry, it's not even close.  Barkley in any format.  Last year was not his ceiling, it was his floor. 

I’d bet money he has less fantasy points this year.

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