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Alvin Kamara 2019 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Give me the guy with otherworldly talent and 350+ touches every time.  Love Kamara, but sorry, it's not even close.  Barkley in any format.  Last year was not his ceiling, it was his floor. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Give me the guy with otherworldly talent and 350+ touches every time.  Love Kamara, but sorry, it's not even close.  Barkley in any format.  Last year was not his ceiling, it was his floor. 

 

He outscored Kamara by 30 full PPR points with Kamara splitting carries and Beckham there opening the field for Saquon. You're just trolling at this point, whether you know it or not.

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1 minute ago, kball09 said:

 

He outscored Kamara by 30 full PPR points with Kamara splitting carries and Beckham there opening the field for Saquon. You're just trolling at this point, whether you know it or not.

Beckham missed a quarter of the season and was hobbled much of the rest.  You overrate his impact.  Meanwhile, Kamara's usage is not changing.  This isn't trolling, I'm far from the only one with this opinion. 

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3 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Beckham missed a quarter of the season and was hobbled much of the rest.  You overrate his impact.  Meanwhile, Kamara's usage is not changing.  This isn't trolling, I'm far from the only one with this opinion. 

 

As a Murray owner, I hope you are correct, but I sincerely don't think Kamara won't have an uptick. That's just naive. 

And that means Beckham played 3/4, right? I don't think Saquon won't be a stud, he will, but if they stack boxes against the Giants, as they should, Saquon isn't bullet proof. The issue isn't with your "Saquon is the best" sentiment, it's with your "not even close" bs. That's just hyperbole and does you no favors.

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3 minutes ago, Chardo said:

Beckham missed a quarter of the season and was hobbled much of the rest.  You overrate his impact.  Meanwhile, Kamara's usage is not changing.  This isn't trolling, I'm far from the only one with this opinion. 

 

No youre trolling if you think a RB's floor is 2000 total yards and 15 tds.

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2 minutes ago, Chardo said:

As a rookie on a terrible team, it is.

 

No it just isnt a realistic floor for any player no matter how great there are. Its not hard to comprehend.

Im sure there were some enthusiastic Lions fans who once thought Megatron's floor was 10 tds and than 2012 happened.

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22 hours ago, Chardo said:

As a rookie on a terrible team, it is.

 

Team wasnt that bad. The offense was a little less than average so was the offensive line. I think PFF ranked the line as 20th in the league. That's better than alot of good teams offensive lines like the vikings and chargers.

Eli was worse than his numbers show but he still put up 4000 passing yards. The defense was poor but this allowed for more offense and more opprotunity for saquon. 

 

I've noticed that saquon and eli manning fans are some of the most delusional out there. Really makes ya think there might be something in that New york and new jersey water.

Edited by Stonej14
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22 hours ago, Chardo said:

Beckham missed a quarter of the season and was hobbled much of the rest.  You overrate his impact.  Meanwhile, Kamara's usage is not changing.  This isn't trolling, I'm far from the only one with this opinion. 

 

Also kamara only played in 15 games. It's fair to say Kamara couldve outscored saquon with one more game. 

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Just to be that guy, and fulfill my desperate lust for approval.....

Kamara's 2018:

15 games

275 touches (81 receptions, same as 2017)

1592 total yards

18 TDs

279.2 points in standard, 360.2 points in 1ppr

On 8/19/2018 at 11:49 PM, SadFaceHappy said:

14.5 touches per game (excluding above mentioned outliers), so we'll round up to 15.

15×16=240 touches

240×7.73=1,855 total yards

Give him 160 carries and keep him at 80 receptions, plus his 13 TDs.

That's 343.5 points ppr and 283.5 standard.

I'd take it.

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So let's try 2019 projection...

 

Career #s:

31 total games (excluding playoffs)... 15.5 average

314 carries + 162 receptions = 476 touches... 157 + 81 = 238 average

2017: 201 touches, 2018: 275 touches

1611 rush yards + 1535 receiving yards = 3146 total yards... 805.5 + 767.5 = 1573 average

22 rush Tds + 9 receiving TDs = 31 total TDs... 15.5 average

476/31=15.4 touches/game

3146/31=101.5 yards/game

31/31=1 TD/game

3146/476=6.6 yards/touch

But, a handful of games stand out as outliers [week 2 (4 touches, 10 yards), week 3 (5 touches, 42 yards), and week 14 (4 touches, 27 yards; left game with concussion)]

So, excluding outliers:

31-3=28 games

476-13=463 touches

3146-79=3067 yards

31-0 = 31 TDs

463/28=16.5 touches/game

3067/28=109.5 yards/game

31/28=1.1 TDs/game

3067/463=6.6 yards/touch

 

Kamara's usage increased from 14.5 touches/game (excluding outliers) in 2017 to 18.3 touches/game in 2018, an increase of 11.5%

 

Projecting for 2019:

If Kamara's usage increases at the same 11.5% rate, he'll have 307 touches.  34% of those touches have been receptions, which would result in 203 rushes and 104 receptions.  If his receptions remain consistent at 81 for the 3rd straight year, that would leave 226 rushes.  Over 16 games, Kamara's touches/game would be 19.2.

Those numbers don't seem out of line at all.

At his career average of 6.6 yards/touch, he should accumulate 2026 yards, and 1.1 TDs/game would put him at 17.6 total.

We're looking at a season line for Alvin Kamara of

300 touches, 2000 yards, 15-20 TDs.

That would be worth of the #1 overall pick.

Edited by SadFaceHappy
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On 8/20/2019 at 12:47 AM, SadFaceHappy said:

So let's try 2019 projection...

 

Career #s:

31 total games (excluding playoffs)... 15.5 average

314 carries + 162 receptions = 476 touches... 157 + 81 = 238 average

2017: 201 touches, 2018: 275 touches

1611 rush yards + 1535 receiving yards = 3146 total yards... 805.5 + 767.5 = 1573 average

22 rush Tds + 9 receiving TDs = 31 total TDs... 15.5 average

476/31=15.4 touches/game

3146/31=101.5 yards/game

31/31=1 TD/game

3146/476=6.6 yards/touch

But, a handful of games stand out as outliers [week 2 (4 touches, 10 yards), week 3 (5 touches, 42 yards), and week 14 (4 touches, 27 yards; left game with concussion)]

So, excluding outliers:

31-3=28 games

476-13=463 touches

3146-79=3067 yards

31-0 = 31 TDs

463/28=16.5 touches/game

3067/28=109.5 yards/game

31/28=1.1 TDs/game

3067/463=6.6 yards/touch

 

Kamara's usage increased from 14.5 touches/game (excluding outliers) in 2017 to 18.3 touches/game in 2018, an increase of 11.5%

 

Projecting for 2019:

If Kamara's usage increases at the same 11.5% rate, he'll have 307 touches.  34% of those touches have been receptions, which would result in 203 rushes and 104 receptions.  If his receptions remain consistent at 81 for the 3rd straight year, that would leave 226 rushes.  Over 16 games, Kamara's touches/game would be 19.2.

Those numbers don't seem out of line at all.

At his career average of 6.6 yards/touch, he should accumulate 2026 yards, and 1.1 TDs/game would put him at 17.6 total.

We're looking at a season line for Alvin Kamara of

300 touches, 2000 yards, 15-20 TDs.

That would be worth of the #1 overall pick.

I think it is slightly misleading to take out the games with kamara having lower stats, not so much the concussion one that is different. If anything you should focus on the games when Ingram was back and extrapolate those stats. I have the 2nd pick so I have been debating him or CMC for a long time. I pray Zeke signs, but that is neither here nor there. 

Don't get me wrong Alvin should be a top 4 selection in any format.

Problems I have with Kamara. 

-His coach has went on record saying that they WILL NOT change his role much and work him similar to the games after Ingram left. 

-If they are up in games, which I DO NOT see since they have a very tough schedule, they may dial him down.

-He won't get the carries, but I do see him getting 100 catches because of their schedule. 

 

My projections

195 carries for 975 yards (5.0 yards per carry)     104 catches for 936 yards.

He has so many games where they are going to be throwing A LOT

Texans, Falcons X 2, Bucs X2, Rams, Colts, 49ers (maybe)

 

 

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Morbid curiosity had me clicking on a thread that I wondered why it even existed! Obviously you're happy to get either him or Barkley. But being in an auction league I guess it's different. I will make a play for him or Barkley, whoever is nominated first. If the price gets ridiculous, I'll let the first pass and try for the second, glad if I get either. If price is too high for both, I shift gears and focus on a lesser RB and figure I can then spend more on a top WR or second RB.

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8 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

think it is slightly misleading to take out the games with kamara having lower stats, not so much the concussion one that is different

Those games were clear outliers.  The concussion one, obviously.  The others were weeks 2 and 3, with Peterson still on the team and before Kamara's role was really defined.  You could honestly throw out weeks 1-4 (his role was really first defined week 5 vs Miami), but since his touches weren't drastically out of line I left them in.

9 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

His coach has went on record saying that they WILL NOT change his role much and work him similar to the games after Ingram left. 

Payton said the same thing about him last year regarding the first 4 games and Ingram's suspension.  We all know how that turned out...

9 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

If they are up in games, which I DO NOT see since they have a very tough schedule, they may dial him down.

-He won't get the carries, but I do see him getting 100 catches because of their schedule. 

 

My projections

195 carries for 975 yards (5.0 yards per carry)     104 catches for 936 yards.

Possible, but this is the NFL - the "not for long" league where parity is the rule.  If they're protecting a lead, their not taking the ball out of his hands.  If they have a big lead, pretty good chance he's got 1 or 2 TDs already.  Remember the Philly regular season game last year?  They won 48-7, and it wasn't even that close.  Wentz put up 0 in fantasy, and I'm not sure the Eagles crossed midfield until well into the 2nd half.  Kamara had 13 carries and 1 reception for 108 total yards and 2 TDs - 22.8 points in standard, without factoring in any bonuses.

You've projected him for 299 touches, which is about right.  If he trades 20+ rushes for 20+ receptions, that would be even better for him as he's averaged 5.1 yards/carry and 9.5 yards/rec.  So give him an extra 80+ yards there.

If you think he's going to get 1900+ total yards, what's the worry?

TD regression is certainly possible, but regression is towards the mean.  Kamara has 31 TDs in 31 (regular) season games.  So instead of 18 TDs, we're looking at 16.

1900 total yards and 16 TDs?  Give me that at the #2 pick all day

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