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Le'Veon Bell 2019 Outlook


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Yeah I don't think he'll be as consistent as the top 3 (Elliot doesn't count since he isn't around) but he won't cost as much either. For auctions money saved there can be spent upgrading the WRs or a better RB2. 

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Whoa. Easy with the language.

You're lucky I'm not active this year.  This is some of the most useless analysis I've seen and would normally tear it apart a lot more than I'm about to. Bell is the best back in the league.  Un

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On 8/1/2019 at 12:07 PM, elroypedro said:

Here is another way to look Bell not having upside...

 

Gase’s highest TD total for an RB is 13.

Bell’s highest TD total is 11.

Let’s say he gets 10 TDs this year.

 

Gase’s highest mark for receptions by a RB is 60.

Bell’s mark for most catches is 85.

Let’s say he gets 70 this year. On 8 YPR let’s say that is 560 yards. 

 

Thise numbers combined would see him at near his ceiling in catches and TDs in his current situation, and would only account for 151 FPs in 0.5ppr.

 

300+ is what it takes to be a top 5 RB overall. So that means Bell would need roughly 1500 yards just to break into the top 5 RBs. How likely is that?

 

Gase’s biggest rusher as a coach has been 1272 yards in a season, followed by 1038, 898, 849, 722, 644, 535, 465.

Bells biggest rushing seasons have been 1361, 1291, 1268, 869, 556, 0.

 

Gase’s RBs do often average mid 4 YPC or above, and Bell averages 4.3 YPC in his career. Let’s say he averages 4.5 YPC. That would take roughly 333 carries alone to get those 1500 yards.

 

333 carries + 70 receptions to get to top 5 RB. Chances of that? 0.01%. His projected season long touches should be in the mid to high 200s, with a mid to low 300s cap, with a lot of downside.

 

 

If he gets 250 carries at 4.3 YPC and 70 recs at 8 YPC and 8 TD that is 246.5 points which would have put him at RB9 last year at almost exactly what David Johnson did.

 

I think his price is exactly right at RB10

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1 hour ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

If he gets 250 carries at 4.3 YPC and 70 recs at 8 YPC and 8 TD that is 246.5 points which would have put him at RB9 last year at almost exactly what David Johnson did.

 

I think his price is exactly right at RB10

 

You are basically projecting Bell’s ceiling, and are happy with potentially 15.4 ppg? That is RB10, but RB9 to RB1 averaged 19-24 ppg, so in reality the performance you are hoping for is MUCH more accurately described as a high end RB2 tier season WELL outside of the range of the actual RB1s. 

 

Seriously, the most touches any Gase RB has ever had is 301. You’re projecting 320.

 

Bell averages 10.3 games played per 16, and he has had near 1600 touches in his career, and is expected to deteriorate quickly at any time now, like most RBs at that point. 

 

Tighten it up man.

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13 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

 

 

Seriously, the most touches any Gase RB has ever had is 301. You’re projecting 320.

 

....

 

Tighten it up man.

 

On 7/30/2019 at 2:22 AM, Iron-cock said:

 

Gase has given running backs plenty of touches.  In fact, he's put many RB's on a pace that would put them over 300+ carries in a season.  The issue is he's never gotten a full season out of his running backs due to trades, injuries, etc.  So you will only know if you remember the situations or dig into the stat sheets.  

 

2015:

 

When Gase was OC in Chicago, he gave Matt Forte 85-89% of the snaps in the first six games.  Forte was injured in week 7 vs the Vikings.  

 

After sitting out three weeks, he returned but understandably was not given the same number of snaps coming off a MCL sprain.

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/F/FortMa00/fantasy/2015/

 

Before Forte was injured in week 7 of 2015, he was on pace for 336 carries and 56 catches on 85 targets for 1862 yards from scrimmage.

 

2016:

 

Arian Foster is the Dolphins starting running back heading into the season.  Jay Ajayi was not happy with this, which supposedly landed him in Gase's doghouse.  Ajayi isn't active for game 1, and does not travel with the team.  Rotoworld briefly misreports that Ajayi went "AWOL".

 

In game 1 Arian Foster gets 87% of the snaps.  He's injured in game 2.  Games 3 and 4 are basically running back by committee.   Drake and Damien Williams get starts.  Damien Williams seemed like a really crazy choice to start over Ajayi back then.

 

Gase admits the four running back committee thing isn't working out, says it's been "some bad coaching by me" and "hopefully we can target a couple of guys a game or one guy a game and let that guy get in the flow of it"

 

Gase settles on Ajayi as starter in week 5.   

 

From Week 6 on, with the exception of blowouts, Ajayi is given about 70% of the snaps.


Ajayi's 16 game pace during his time as a starter was 323 carries, 28 receptions for 1739 yards rushing and receiving.

 

2017:

 

Ajayi would get the same kind of usage for the 7 games he played for Miami before he was traded to Philly.  He was on a 16 game pace for 315 carries and 32 recs, and about 1200 rush/rec yards.

 

After Ajayi was traded, Drake was in a back and forth timeshare with Damien Williams until Williams injured his shoulder and was out for the year in week 11.

 

From week 12 on, Drake was getting 80-90% of the offensive snaps until getting 67% in week 17 since the rest of the RB's were basically CFL level talent.

 

This led many fantasy owners to overdraft Drake in 2018 assuming he'd be a feature back.

 

2018:

 

Drake was in a back and forth timeshare with Frank Gore.

 

2019:

 

Drake looks like he's headed for a timeshare with Ballage, despite Gase not being there.

 

Summary/TLDR:

 

Gase will clearly give a running back 300+ carries and keep them on the field all three downs if they're capable enough.  He had both Forte and Ajayi on a 300+ carry pace, despite Ajayi having knee issues and not being a pass catcher on the level of Forte or Bell.  In 2017 after Ajayi was traded Gase said in a press conference: 

 

“I don’t know if I’m ever going to have feature back-type situations,” Gase said. “I like using multiple guys. I like guys moving in and out and I like having guys that can do multiple things and really put pressure on the defense where they can’t focus on one thing. I don’t know. We might be out of that game.”

 

The fantasy community still looks as that quote as the definitive fact when it comes to how Gase ALWAYS uses running backs, rather than the context of the quote...his "Feature Back" had just been traded to Philly and he wasn't going to use Drake or Williams the same way.    

 

His prior usage of Ajayi, Forte, CJ Anderson (briefly in 2014) and Foster (very briefly) all show that Gase is willing to have a workhorse RB that puts up 300+ carries.  

 

It's more likely that Gase will run Bell into the ground rather than put him into some kind of committee that limits his fantasy upside.

 

^^^

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1 minute ago, Iron-cock said:

 

^^^

 

You realize that Bell plays 10.3 games per season on average, and he is at the tail end of his career, with a TON of wear and tear. 

 

And the fact remains that Gase has never given an RB more than 301 touches.

 

What is this a recipe for? Mid 200s touches. 

 

Even if Bell averaged more touches than Gurley last year, in 10.3 games that is about 250 touches. 

 

It just doesn’t work out. There is a very, very small chance that he has a massive outlier season for BOTH him and for Gase, but again, the chances it all lines up are too small to even take seriously.

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2 hours ago, elroypedro said:

 

You are basically projecting Bell’s ceiling, and are happy with potentially 15.4 ppg? That is RB10, but RB9 to RB1 averaged 19-24 ppg, so in reality the performance you are hoping for is MUCH more accurately described as a high end RB2 tier season WELL outside of the range of the actual RB1s. 

 

Seriously, the most touches any Gase RB has ever had is 301. You’re projecting 320.

 

Bell averages 10.3 games played per 16, and he has had near 1600 touches in his career, and is expected to deteriorate quickly at any time now, like most RBs at that point. 

 

Tighten it up man.

 

You're fussing over me projecting 19 more touches? Gase has never had a RB this talented.

Expected to quickly deteriorate at any time? You make it seem like he's a ticking time bomb. He should be fine for at least this season. 

If you want to call him a high-end RB2, that's fine. I think he's an ok value as the 10th RB off the board is my point. I'm not jumping to get him, but he's still an immense talent.

 

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2 hours ago, elroypedro said:

 

You realize that Bell plays 10.3 games per season on average, and he is at the tail end of his career, with a TON of wear and tear. 

 

Even if Bell averaged more touches than Gurley last year, in 10.3 games that is about 250 touches. 

 

It just doesn’t work out. There is a very, very small chance that he has a massive outlier season for BOTH him and for Gase, but again, the chances it all lines up are too small to even take seriously.

 

You are really stuck on that 10.3 games haha.  In his career he's played: 13, 16, 6*, 12, 15 games. (*MCL tear in 2015)

So you can say two things both of which are correct:

  • He's averaged 10.3 games per season
  • He's played 12+ games in 4/5 seasons


He does have a ton of work to this point, but in today's NFL there are precious few backs that are good for 250-300 touches and Bell is exactly that. Add in that he's a great receiver and he's easily worth grabbing as one of the top 10-12 RBs off the board.

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34 minutes ago, sportsfreak2744 said:

 

You are really stuck on that 10.3 games haha.  In his career he's played: 13, 16, 6*, 12, 15 games. (*MCL tear in 2015)

So you can say two things both of which are correct:

  • He's averaged 10.3 games per season
  • He's played 12+ games in 4/5 seasons


He does have a ton of work to this point, but in today's NFL there are precious few backs that are good for 250-300 touches and Bell is exactly that. Add in that he's a great receiver and he's easily worth grabbing as one of the top 10-12 RBs off the board.

 

Youre missing numbers. In sum, Bell has played 12 or more games 4 times, and has played 6 or fewer games 2 times. This is not good, any way you shake it.

 

The point is, all of these things are working AGAINST Bell:

 

An old and heavily worn 27 years of age.

 

Averages only 10.3 games played per year. 62/96 total games played in career. 

 

1500+ touches.

 

Terrible OL.

 

Bad team.

 

Mediocre offense.

 

Gase has never given an RB more than 301 touches and his lead RB averages closer to 200 touches normally.

 

He is an inefficient volume dependent RB in fantasy.

 

 

 

What does he have FOR him? List them and we will compare...

Edited by elroypedro
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5 hours ago, elroypedro said:

 

Youre missing numbers. In sum, Bell has played 12 or more games 4 times, and has played 6 or fewer games 2 times. This is not good, any way you shake it.

 

The point is, all of these things are working AGAINST Bell:

 

An old and heavily worn 27 years of age.

 

Averages only 10.3 games played per year. 62/96 total games played in career. 

 

1500+ touches.

 

Terrible OL.

 

Bad team.

 

Mediocre offense.

 

Gase has never given an RB more than 301 touches and his lead RB averages closer to 200 touches normally.

 

He is an inefficient volume dependent RB in fantasy.

 

 

 

What does he have FOR him? List them and we will compare...

 

I'm pretty anti bell this year too but I'll give it a shot.

 

Bell is the best RB gase has ever had and it's not really close. Matt forte was closer to the end of his career and was being fed like he was still 22 years old until he eventually got Injured.

Idk how you've concluded he is inefficient and volume dependent. 

2013: 3.7 ypc 

2014: 4.7 ypc

2015: 4.9 ypc

2016: 4.9 ypc

2017: 4.0 ypc

Career: 4.3 ypc

His career average for yards per reception is 8.5 yards per reception. Your boy damien William's only has a 8.3 yards per reception and he is supposed to be one of the best recieving backs in the league. 

 

You say "He is 27 years old" like it's a bad thing. I thought the RB cliff was age 30. I might be wrong. Either way he took a whole year off and has had plenty of time to heal and recover. Similar to adrian Peterson's good year after he had a year off for beating his kids. 

 

I also believe the jets dont want to look stupid for paying him so much money so theyll use him until he falls apart. Oh and to bring up injuries. His 12 game season was due to a suspension from a failed drug test I believe. I think that shouldnt be held agaisnt him too much. He was healthy just stupid. 

 

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lmao

elroypedro's argument is very disingenuous.

He tried to count last year in his math while insinuating high injury risk.

Bell's actual average games played is 12.4.

Literally everything else is either wrong or misleading as well, but unpacking it all doesn't seem like a fruitful endeavor.

The point of discussion is to push towards the truth, not to "win" a debate. It's clear that he does not seek truth for mutual benefit. If he did, he wouldn't obfuscate his data or editorialize his language to imbue it with negative connotations.

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Keep it on the post/opinion
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5 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

I lol at people who are projecting Bell to play a full season.  Play a full quarter for starters...

 

If he is even given that many touches, he's not going to make it to 16 games.....maybe not even 10

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7 hours ago, CABLE87 said:

 

If he is even given that many touches, he's not going to make it to 16 games.....maybe not even 10

 

Yeah because that would be so crazy... so crazy he has only handled that many touches FOUR different times.

 

289 touches 2013 as a rookie, 373 in 2014, 336 in 2016 and 406 in 2017. Guy is a 3 time Pro Bowler and 2 time All Pro. He is only 27 and coming off a full season where he sat out (everyone knows that sh*t) being fresh as possible at that age, guys are talking like he is 32. No one with common sense is calling for prime Pitt numbers because the oline and offense downgrade are obvious. But dude is an elite talent and has done it plenty. He runs elite between the tackles and is a truck to tackle. He runs routes like a WR when coming out of the backfield and out wide.

 

The hate and just straight up dumb takes in this forum are hilarious. 

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On 8/14/2019 at 8:04 PM, elroypedro said:

 

Youre missing numbers. In sum, Bell has played 12 or more games 4 times, and has played 6 or fewer games 2 times. This is not good, any way you shake it.

 

The point is, all of these things are working AGAINST Bell:

 

An old and heavily worn 27 years of age.

 

Averages only 10.3 games played per year. 62/96 total games played in career. 

 

1500+ touches.

 

Terrible OL.

 

Bad team.

 

Mediocre offense.

 

Gase has never given an RB more than 301 touches and his lead RB averages closer to 200 touches normally.

 

He is an inefficient volume dependent RB in fantasy.

 

 

 

What does he have FOR him? List them and we will compare...

 

I really hope I am in a league with a bunch of people who think the same way. 

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22 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

Idk how you've concluded he is inefficient and volume dependent. 

The dude thinks every single back in the league is inefficient and volume dependent except Damian Williams.

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On 8/14/2019 at 8:04 PM, elroypedro said:

Averages only 10.3 games played per year. 62/96 total games played in career. 

Again, he had 1 season where he tore his MCL and played 6 games and 1 season with a 3-game suspension (2016) and played 12 games. So you're really bending the truth saying 10.3 games.

1500+ touches.

OK. That's not a death sentence.

Terrible OL.

Yea, it won't be a strength but they've made some changes and lines can be pretty fickle year-to-year.

Mediocre offense.

Darnold looks much improved and they have solid real-life receiving weapons now with Anderson, Crowder, Enunwa, Herndon.

Gase has never given an RB more than 301 touches and his lead RB averages closer to 200 touches normally.

Gase has never had a RB this talented in his prime. Foster and Forte were washed.

He is an inefficient volume dependent RB in fantasy.

Players that get as many touches as Bell don't maintain efficiency, and his last year with the Steelers was the only time he managed <4.7 YPC aside from rookie year

 

 

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On 8/15/2019 at 7:27 AM, CallMeBDB said:

lmao

elroypedro's argument is very disingenuous.

He tried to count last year in his math while insinuating high injury risk.

Bell's actual average games played is 12.4.

Literally everything else is either wrong or misleading as well, but unpacking it all doesn't seem like a fruitful endeavor.

The point of discussion is to push towards the truth, not to "win" a debate. It's clear that he does not seek truth for mutual benefit. If he did, he wouldn't obfuscate his data or editorialize his language to imbue it with negative connotations.

 

Nowhere did I say or insinuate that he misses all of his games from injury.

And you saying his “actual average games played is 12.4” IS incorrect. 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

Nowhere did I say or insinuate that he misses all of his games from injury.

And you saying his “actual average games played is 12.4” IS incorrect. 

 

 

Injury worries I get, but do you expect him to really miss games via suspension?

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21 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Injury worries I get, but do you expect him to really miss games via suspension?

That’s the point. I posted that he has played 62/96 games, or 10.3 per season, missing games for any reason. That is his track record. 

 

Those are the facts. He misses games, A LOT! 

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14 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

That’s the point. I posted that he has played 62/96 games, or 10.3 per season, missing games for any reason. That is his track record. 

 

Those are the facts. He misses games, A LOT! 

Agreed when you draft you need to look at off field issues and character as well.  Guys like AB and Bell might decide they aren't happy with their shoe lace color and decide to leave the team, that is still bad for your fantasy team.

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