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Le'Veon Bell 2019 Outlook


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3 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

That’s the point. I posted that he has played 62/96 games, or 10.3 per season, missing games for any reason. That is his track record. 

 

There are liars here pretending otherwise. But those are the facts. He misses games, A LOT! 

No argument he misses games and while 10.3 is mathematically correct I think basing projections around potential suspensions is shaky IMO.  A suspension of any sort can happen to any player at any time (G. Tate) so personally I would rather discount oft injured players but that’s it when projecting stats

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Whoa. Easy with the language.

You're lucky I'm not active this year.  This is some of the most useless analysis I've seen and would normally tear it apart a lot more than I'm about to. Bell is the best back in the league.  Un

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And to those questioning Bell’s efficiency:

 

He is EXTREMELY inefficient in fantasy. Per touch, he only scores 0.78 fantasy points 0.5ppr on his career. That is downright abysmal.

 

For a hint as to why, maybe see that even over 62 games played in his career, he only has 7 receiving TDs. As a comparison, Damien Williams, in 6 games to end last year, had 6 receiving TDs. That should clear things up for those otherwise confused.

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Just now, broncofan48 said:

No argument he misses games and while 10.3 is mathematically correct I think basing projections around potential suspensions is shaky IMO.  A suspension of any sort can happen to any player at any time (G. Tate) so personally I would rather discount oft injured players but that’s it when projecting stats

That isn’t his projection. It is just showing he is historically bad at being available to play, whether it be for injury, suspension, or personal reasons, he plays in about 2/3 of games, and consistently misses time. He has only played 16 games 1x, and that was 5 years ago.

 

I mean, these are his games played per season:

13

16

6

12

15

0

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7 minutes ago, mortman212 said:

Agreed when you draft you need to look at off field issues and character as well.  Guys like AB and Bell might decide they aren't happy with their shoe lace color and decide to leave the team, that is still bad for your fantasy team.

 

Agreed about Bell. AB on the other hand is MUCH more stable than Bell in every aspect of the game, and has missed very little time throughout his career.

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4 hours ago, elroypedro said:

And to those questioning Bell’s efficiency:

 

He is EXTREMELY inefficient in fantasy. Per touch, he only scores 0.78 fantasy points 0.5ppr on his career. That is downright abysmal.

 

For a hint as to why, maybe see that even over 62 games played in his career, he only has 7 receiving TDs. As a comparison, Damien Williams, in 6 games to end last year, had 6 receiving TDs. That should clear things up for those otherwise confused.

 

Dude we've been over this. It's all about the TDs in FPPT. But who cares about that. What we care about is actual fantasy points and for nearly every game bell plays he has been a top fantasy producer. Who cares if it takes nine 30 touches to get 25 points we just want the 25 points.

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10 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Dude we've been over this. It's all about the TDs in FPPT. But who cares about that. What we care about is actual fantasy points and for nearly every game bell plays he has been a top fantasy producer. Who cares if it takes nine 30 touches to get 25 points we just want the 25 points.

No it isn’t. Or, it may seem like that, but it is about being a pass catching RB.

 

Check out the top and bottom 20 RBs in FPPT:

James White 1.29

Damien Williams 1.22

Duke Johnson 1.20

Tarik Cohen 1.18

Alvin Kamara 1.12

Melvin Gordon 1.10

Todd Gurley 1.07

Kenyan Drake 1.05

Kareem Hunt 1.05

Austin Ekeler 1.04

Jalen Richard 1.03

Aaron Jones 1.02

Christian McCaffrey 1.01

Devontae Booker 0.98

Spencer Ware 0.97

Saquon Barkley 0.96

James Conner 0.94

Jaylen Samuels 0.93

Jacquizz Rodgers 0.93

TJ Yeldon 0.93

 

 

 

Bottom 20:

 

LeGarrete Blount 0.51

Alfred Blue 0.51

Carlos Hyde 0.52

Jeff Wilson 0.54

Alfred Morris 0.56

Chris Ivory 0.56

Peyton Barber 0.56

LeSean McCoy 0.5

Frank Gore 0.58

Doug Martin 0.62

Josh Adams 0.62

Dion Lewis 0.62

Bilal Powell 0.62

Gus Edwards 0.62

Sony Michel 0.64

Jordan Howard 0.64

Jamaal Williams 0.67

Royce Freeman 0.67

Adrian Peterson 0.68

Marshawn Lynch 0.68

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Why? Because pass catching RBs not only get extra points for catching those passes, BUT THEY SCORE TDs at a much higher rate than old school plodders. 

 

Even LeGarrette Blount, an historic extreme outlier in scoring TDs, is DEAD LAST in FPPT.

 

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Moral of the story:

 

If you get a great pass catching RB, that gets bellcow touches, that is the holy grail. Aka CMC, Kamara, Barkley, others, and now D Williams.

 

 

And as to Bell, he is a very average pass catcher, who doesn’t score much, and wholly relies on volume to produce fantasy points. Wholly. And now he is no longer in a perfect situation, in fact he is in one of the worst spots for any RB in the league, and Gase has never given a single RB more than 301 touches in a season, and Bell misses time at a VERY high rate. 

 

If you think Bell gets 400+ touches, then he would be in conversation for top half RB1, but still behind guys like CMC and Kamara, even if those guys are just projected with 300 touches. 

 

There is a mountain of evidence against Bell performing well this year, and very little backing him. It is a horrible gamble to spend any kind of high capital on him this year, and that’s just clear as day at this point.

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Here is another example of how inefficient Bell is, but how his high usage fools newbies in fantasy into thinking he is super talented or efficient or worth owning in a low volume offense this year with a coach that doesn’t feed RBs:

 

in 2015, Bell only played 6 games, here are his stats...

113 carries, 556 yards, 3 TD

26 targets, 24 receptions, 136 yards, 0 TD

Total touches = 137

Touches PG = 22.9

Total FP 0.5ppr = 99.2 

FPPG = 16.5

FPPT = 0.72

 

And, because we’ve discussed it plenty of times here and the numbers are easily accessed and he played 6 games last year(actually 5.5), and not even all as the starter, here is Damien Williams last year...

78 carries, 376 yards, 6 TD

33 targets, 28 receptions(0 drops), 226 yards, 4 TD

Total Touches = 106 touches

Touches PG = 18.1

Total FP = 134.7

FPPG = 22.4

FPPT = 1.27

 

 

Okay, even with almost 5 more touches per game, Bell averaged almost 6 less Fantasy PPG than an actually elite efficiency RB. 

 

Thats why FPPT is the best stat in all of fantasy, although only for RBs, obviously. 

 

 

EDIT: and the stat is very sticky across seasons and situations. 9 of the top 20 FPPT RBs in 2017 were top 20 in 2018. And 9 of the bottom 20 in 2017 were bottom in 2018.

Damien Williams was high in Miami and in KC, even though Hunt wasn’t in KC. Bell was bad consistently throughout his time in Pitt, and it is overwhelmingly likely he carries that inefficiency with him to the NYJets, and will need unsustainable volume to be an RB1.

 

If you don’t like Damien Williams as an example, then maybe this might help you understand: 

If Kamara, CMC, and Bell all receive 300 touches this year, Kamara will likely score well into the mid 300s, CMC in the low 300s, and Bell will do well just to get into the low 200s in 0.5ppr.

 

Do you now see how ridiculous it is to take Bell anywhere near these RBs that are so much better than him? In Pitt, where he got ridiculous usage, behind an elite Line, in an elite offense, with good game scripts, with elite OL and RB coaches, with a HOF QB, a HOF WR, a future HOF WR, he produced  in fantasy ONLY due to volume, and even so busted several years out of the last 6 due to his MAJOR off field and injury issues.

Edited by elroypedro
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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

No it isn’t. Or, it may seem like that, but it is about being a pass catching RB.

 

Well your right and your wrong. Strictly pass catching backs do score more per touch on average than strictly runners. Cohen vs  Blount is a no brainer.

But once you start giving an RB bell cow touches the FPPT becomes very TD dependent. 

For example. Your boy damien William's averages 8.3 yards per catch. 1 catch is worth half a fantasy point so every time William's catches the ball on average he scores 1.33 fantasy points. 

Now let's say Williams is awesome and averages 5 yards per carry. For every rush he only gets 0.5 fantasy points.. for scat backs like duke johnsons or William's or cohen they will rarely rush more than they recieve.

So let's say williams had a good year of 50 rushes and 50 catches and 5 total TDs. That equals a total of 1.21 fantasy points per touch. With 1 td per 10 touches no brainer because he only had 50 rushing attempts and was a scat back.

But let's start giving William's bell cow touches with the exact same efficiency except for TDs 

250 rushes at 5 yards per touch and 75 catches for 8.3 yards per catch for only 15 tds or one over 21.6 touches

That comes to 0.96 FPPT. 

 

I think we can both agree that the math speaks for itself. The FPPT is higher for scat backs when they used solely as scat backs. But when they are used as bell cows and the rushes go up they become more inefficient and thus depend on more TDs. 

 

So yes bell is inefficient because he doesnt score a lot of TDs off his many touches. 

 

1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

 

Check out the top and bottom 20 RBs in FPPT:

James White 1.29

Damien Williams 1.22

Duke Johnson 1.20

Tarik Cohen 1.18

Alvin Kamara 1.12

Melvin Gordon 1.10

Todd Gurley 1.07

Kenyan Drake 1.05

Kareem Hunt 1.05

Austin Ekeler 1.04

Jalen Richard 1.03

Aaron Jones 1.02

Christian McCaffrey 1.01

Devontae Booker 0.98

Spencer Ware 0.97

Saquon Barkley 0.96

James Conner 0.94

Jaylen Samuels 0.93

Jacquizz Rodgers 0.93

 

 

Well alot of these are used in the scat back role and as I proved earlier they would become.more TD dependent if they recieved more rushing attempts but most of these guys had a very high TD per touch rate anyway.

James white: 181 touches and 12 tds one td for every 15 tocuhes

William's: 73 and 6 tds. 1 td for every 12 touches 

Duke: 87 for 3. 1 td for every 29 tocuhes 

Cohen: 190 for 8 [1 td for 23 tocuhes)

Kamara 275 and 18tds (1td every 15 touches)

Gordon: 225 and 14 tds (1 td every 16 touches)

Todd: 315 for 21 tds (1 td every 15 touches)

Drake: 173 for 9 tds (1 td ever 19 touches)

Hunt: 207 for 14 tds (1 td every 14 touches)

Ekeler: 145 for 6 tds

So on and so forth

To show how efficient they were with TDs

saquon: 350 for 13 tds. (1 tds for every 27 touches)

 zeke: 380 for 9 tds (1 td for every 42 touches)

We both know saquon is an elite pass catcher with 91 catches and zeke had 77 catches for 7.4 yards per catch that's elite. But the didnt score a td for every 19 touches so their FPPT looks bad and thus to you they look like they're bad at fantasy

 

So everyone but Duke johnson had a well above average touches to touchdown rate but he only had 40 rushes and 47 catches so hat proves you right about recoving backs FPPT being higher. But as I said once you get to bell cow status like Kamara or hunt or gurely to have a high FPPT you need alot of TDs or you looked inefficient like saquon or zeke. 

 

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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

 

Thats why FPPT is the best stat in all of fantasy, although only for RBs, obviously. 

 

 

EDIT: and the stat is very sticky across seasons and situations. 9 of the top 20 FPPT RBs in 2017 were top 20 in 2018. And 9 of the bottom 20 in 2017 were bottom in 2018.

Damien Williams was high in Miami and in KC, even though Hunt wasn’t in KC. Bell was bad consistently throughout his time in Pitt, and it is overwhelmingly likely he carries that inefficiency with him to the NYJets, and will need unsustainable volume to be an RB1.

 

If Kamara, CMC, and Bell all receive 300 touches this year, Kamara will likely score well into the mid 300s, CMC in the low 300s, and Bell will do well just to get into the low 200s in 0.5ppr.

 

It's not the best stat to use in fantasy. By FPPT your telling us to draft duke johnson and austin ekeler over zeke and saquon

It's not that sticky of a stat you boy damien was very bad in this stat most of his career but one good year has fixed his miami FPPT to look good.

Damien William's FPPT by year

2014: 0.82

2015: 0.97

2016: 1.44

2017:0.76

2018: 1.2

Hes had roughly the same rushes and catches every season but in 2016 he had 6 tds meanwhile in the other 3 years he had 1 a piece then in 2018 he had 6 tds in 4 games. It's very very much td dependent.

As a matter a fact his one good year in miami brings the other 3 up with it. 

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Ty Montgomery has looked pretty good in the first 2 preseason games and is likely the handcuff for Bell.  Bilal Powell will probably mix in, too, but they say that Montgomery will be used as a rb and also split out wide so he could get a dual designation from yahoo.

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5 hours ago, Stonej14 said:

 

It's not the best stat to use in fantasy. By FPPT your telling us to draft duke johnson and austin ekeler over zeke and saquon

It's not that sticky of a stat you boy damien was very bad in this stat most of his career but one good year has fixed his miami FPPT to look good.

Damien William's FPPT by year

2014: 0.82

2015: 0.97

2016: 1.44

2017:0.76

2018: 1.2

Hes had roughly the same rushes and catches every season but in 2016 he had 6 tds meanwhile in the other 3 years he had 1 a piece then in 2018 he had 6 tds in 4 games. It's very very much td dependent.

As a matter a fact his one good year in miami brings the other 3 up with it. 

 

Zeke and Saquon are historically good runners. They are this generations two greatest ball carriers I believe. Saquon is good as a receiver as well, and Zeke is average. They of course make up for their shortcomings as receivers with incredible and unparalleled ability once the ball is in their hands. The main issue for both of them is how they are being used in the receiving game, and for Zeke, what he is capable of. 

 

They both are dumpoff receivers on a vast majority of their targets and receptions. Here are some stats that show this(these stats become pretty solid and reliable after about 50 targets/receptions in a season I’ve found)

 

Saquon

120 targets, 90 receptions, 712 yards, 4 TD

Cumulative air yards = 34

Average Depth of Target = 0.3 yards

 

Zeke

93 targets, 76 receptions, 553 yards, 3 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 42

Average Depth of Target = 0.5 yards

 

So the average depth downfield for Saquon is 1 foot past the LOS, and for Zeke is 1.5 feet past. They are dumpoff kings. And while Saquon can run routes - although his hands are not great at all - and operate downfield, Zeke is nowhere near as proficient running routes. So they don’t score through the air nearly as much or at the rate of these other true receiving RBs.

 

James White

125 targets, 89 receptions, 770 yards, 7 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 417

Average Depth of Target = 3.3 yards 

 

Tarik Cohen

86 Targets, 69 receptions, 684 yards, 5 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 316

Average Depth of Target = 3.7 yards

 

Kenyan Drake

74 Targets, 54 receptions, 487 yards, 5 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 435

Average Depth of Target = 2.4 yards

 

CMC and Kamara have had about 400 cumulative air yards each their first 2 years each, and averaged about 2.0 yards ADot each as well.

 

Damien Williams best year in 2016 he had 112 cumulative air yards on only 31 targets, and of course, pulled in as many TDs, 3, as Zeke had on more than 3x the targets because of it. In 2018, Damien Williams had an abysmally low Air Yards and ADot in the earlier regular season, when he was used exclusively on dump offs and lateral throws in the flat. But last few games and especially the playoffs those numbers ballooned back to his average range and so did his fantasy numbers, once Reid started using him more downfield. It is pretty wild how if Mahomes hadn’t overthrown a WIDE OPEN Williams in the AFC title game on his way into the end zone that the Chiefs likely would have gone to the Super Bowl, even with the offsides penalty from hell.

 

 

Hope this all makes sense.

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8 hours ago, elroypedro said:

And as to Bell, he is a very average pass catcher

That is very incredibly wrong. Excluding his rookie year, any year he's played 12+ games he's averaged over 80 catches a year. That's TOTALLY elite. Hell most WRs can't say that.

Your statistical over-analysis is just that and a classic example of how people can get stats to say anything. Say what you will about him personally but he produces at an elite level fantasy wise. If he was still with the Steelers, he'd be the RB2 overall easily, possibly RB1 overall. The only question is how much being off a year and with an inferior team will mess him up. 

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7 hours ago, elroypedro said:

CJ Spiller/Toby Gerhart 1st pick overall cuz points per touch for COP backs with limited roles, projecting for 300 touch seasons with zero regression is like ERMERGERRDDDD!!!111one11!

 

You're lucky I'm not active this year.  This is some of the most useless analysis I've seen and would normally tear it apart a lot more than I'm about to.

Bell is the best back in the league.  Unfortunately he's on a trash team, with a trash coach, trash QB, slightly better than trash WRs, and a run of the mill Oline.

If you want to avoid him this year, especially at his price, because of his situation, injury concerns, year off, or off field issues... 100% understand, zero argument from me!

But if you want to tell me it's because you don't think he's a talented back, then you must be blind, ignorant, or just trolling.

Bell has never 'busted' since he's entered the league, in my opinion.  Suspensions, Hold outs, etc were all baked into his price and well known risks for those who drafted him.  Those games missed don't count as 'bust' anymore than a bye week does.  In every single one of those years, when on the field 2nd,1st, 4th, 1st in PPG. (P.S. this is the stat that wins you matchups/seasons/championships) In fact, Bell's worst year, his rookie season, he was 10th in PPG.  When on the field Bell is a top 4 back at worst, with the exception of his 1st year in the league, where he was still a top 10 back.

Bell's 26.5 PPR PPG in 2016, over 12 games, is the most dominant RB performance we've seen since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. (Which is the best RB season of all time that I can find)

BUT... Bell hit his 26.5 PPG with just (9) NINE Touchdowns(on pace for only 12 that year) whereas LT and his 29.6 PPG required (31) THIRTY-ONE Touchdowns.

More recent perspective for that, last year Todd Gurley dominated the fantasy landscape with 26.3 PPG, with a pace of 24 TDs.

 

Let me put that in layman's terms.  Imagine how amazing it was to own Todd Gurley last season... and realize that Bell was MORE productive every week, while scoring HALF as many TDs.  Let that sink in.
If Bell had 24 TDs that season, (Like Gurley) he would have scored another 72 fantasy points, or 495.2. (30.95 PPG)
If Bell had 31 TDs that season, (Like LT) he would have scored another 114 fantasy points, or 537.2. (33.5 PPG)

Either of these would have been the best season of a RB in the history of the NFL (that I can find since 1950)
Just to really drive home how good these point totals would have been:
Barkley was the #1 Fantasy Back last year, with 383 fantasy points. (24 PPG)
Gurley was the best back on a per game basis and was on pace for 420.7 fantasy points. (26.3 PPG)

 

That's all, good bye.

 

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3 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

You're lucky I'm not active this year.  This is some of the most useless analysis I've seen and would normally tear it apart a lot more than I'm about to.

Bell is the best back in the league.  Unfortunately he's on a trash team, with a trash coach, trash QB, slightly better than trash WRs, and a run of the mill Oline.

If you want to avoid him this year, especially at his price, because of his situation, injury concerns, year off, or off field issues... 100% understand, zero argument from me!

But if you want to tell me it's because you don't think he's a talented back, then you must be blind, ignorant, or just trolling.

Bell has never 'busted' since he's entered the league, in my opinion.  Suspensions, Hold outs, etc were all baked into his price and well known risks for those who drafted him.  Those games missed don't count as 'bust' anymore than a bye week does.  In every single one of those years, when on the field 2nd,1st, 4th, 1st in PPG. (P.S. this is the stat that wins you matchups/seasons/championships) In fact, Bell's worst year, his rookie season, he was 10th in PPG.  When on the field Bell is a top 4 back at worst, with the exception of his 1st year in the league, where he was still a top 10 back.

Bell's 26.5 PPR PPG in 2016, over 12 games, is the most dominant RB performance we've seen since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. (Which is the best RB season of all time that I can find)

BUT... Bell hit his 26.5 PPG with just (9) NINE Touchdowns(on pace for only 12 that year) whereas LT and his 29.6 PPG required (31) THIRTY-ONE Touchdowns.

More recent perspective for that, last year Todd Gurley dominated the fantasy landscape with 26.3 PPG, with a pace of 24 TDs.

 

Let me put that in layman's terms.  Imagine how amazing it was to own Todd Gurley last season... and realize that Bell was MORE productive every week, while scoring HALF as many TDs.  Let that sink in.
If Bell had 24 TDs that season, (Like Gurley) he would have scored another 72 fantasy points, or 495.2. (30.95 PPG)
If Bell had 31 TDs that season, (Like LT) he would have scored another 114 fantasy points, or 537.2. (33.5 PPG)

Either of these would have been the best season of a RB in the history of the NFL (that I can find since 1950)
Just to really drive home how good these point totals would have been:
Barkley was the #1 Fantasy Back last year, with 383 fantasy points. (24 PPG)
Gurley was the best back on a per game basis and was on pace for 420.7 fantasy points. (26.3 PPG)

 

That's all, good bye.

 

 

 

 

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25 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

 

You're lucky I'm not active this year.  This is some of the most useless analysis I've seen and would normally tear it apart a lot more than I'm about to.

Bell is the best back in the league.  Unfortunately he's on a trash team, with a trash coach, trash QB, slightly better than trash WRs, and a run of the mill Oline.

If you want to avoid him this year, especially at his price, because of his situation, injury concerns, year off, or off field issues... 100% understand, zero argument from me!

But if you want to tell me it's because you don't think he's a talented back, then you must be blind, ignorant, or just trolling.

Bell has never 'busted' since he's entered the league, in my opinion.  Suspensions, Hold outs, etc were all baked into his price and well known risks for those who drafted him.  Those games missed don't count as 'bust' anymore than a bye week does.  In every single one of those years, when on the field 2nd,1st, 4th, 1st in PPG. (P.S. this is the stat that wins you matchups/seasons/championships) In fact, Bell's worst year, his rookie season, he was 10th in PPG.  When on the field Bell is a top 4 back at worst, with the exception of his 1st year in the league, where he was still a top 10 back.

Bell's 26.5 PPR PPG in 2016, over 12 games, is the most dominant RB performance we've seen since LaDainian Tomlinson in 2006. (Which is the best RB season of all time that I can find)

BUT... Bell hit his 26.5 PPG with just (9) NINE Touchdowns(on pace for only 12 that year) whereas LT and his 29.6 PPG required (31) THIRTY-ONE Touchdowns.

More recent perspective for that, last year Todd Gurley dominated the fantasy landscape with 26.3 PPG, with a pace of 24 TDs.

 

Let me put that in layman's terms.  Imagine how amazing it was to own Todd Gurley last season... and realize that Bell was MORE productive every week, while scoring HALF as many TDs.  Let that sink in.
If Bell had 24 TDs that season, (Like Gurley) he would have scored another 72 fantasy points, or 495.2. (30.95 PPG)
If Bell had 31 TDs that season, (Like LT) he would have scored another 114 fantasy points, or 537.2. (33.5 PPG)

Either of these would have been the best season of a RB in the history of the NFL (that I can find since 1950)
Just to really drive home how good these point totals would have been:
Barkley was the #1 Fantasy Back last year, with 383 fantasy points. (24 PPG)
Gurley was the best back on a per game basis and was on pace for 420.7 fantasy points. (26.3 PPG)

 

That's all, good bye.

 

 

Im dealing in facts and stats, not completely ridiculous hypotheticals. This is such an embarrassing and cringeworthy post on your part, from start to finish. I can’t even.

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Just now, Brownsfan74 said:

Guys, please don't discourage elroypedro.  I enjoy his arguments.  I mean, he used a 5 game stretch by Damien Williams to prove that Bell is a bad football player.  Gotta be the most creative argument I've read on this site.

 

Its not “creative” at all. It is straightforward and provably true analysis. Those stats do not lie. It’s all been laid out clearly here, anybody should be able to understand, a reasonable person would assume.

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2 hours ago, elroypedro said:

 

Zeke and Saquon are historically good runners. They are this generations two greatest ball carriers I believe. Saquon is good as a receiver as well, and Zeke is average. They of course make up for their shortcomings as receivers with incredible and unparalleled ability once the ball is in their hands. The main issue for both of them is how they are being used in the receiving game, and for Zeke, what he is capable of. 

 

They both are dumpoff receivers on a vast majority of their targets and receptions. Here are some stats that show this(these stats become pretty solid and reliable after about 50 targets/receptions in a season I’ve found)

 

Saquon

120 targets, 90 receptions, 712 yards, 4 TD

Cumulative air yards = 34

Average Depth of Target = 0.3 yards

 

Zeke

93 targets, 76 receptions, 553 yards, 3 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 42

Average Depth of Target = 0.5 yards

 

So the average depth downfield for Saquon is 1 foot past the LOS, and for Zeke is 1.5 feet past. They are dumpoff kings. And while Saquon can run routes - although his hands are not great at all - and operate downfield, Zeke is nowhere near as proficient running routes. So they don’t score through the air nearly as much or at the rate of these other true receiving RBs.

 

James White

125 targets, 89 receptions, 770 yards, 7 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 417

Average Depth of Target = 3.3 yards 

 

Tarik Cohen

86 Targets, 69 receptions, 684 yards, 5 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 316

Average Depth of Target = 3.7 yards

 

Kenyan Drake

74 Targets, 54 receptions, 487 yards, 5 TDs

Cumulative air yards = 435

Average Depth of Target = 2.4 yards

 

CMC and Kamara have had about 400 cumulative air yards each their first 2 years each, and averaged about 2.0 yards ADot each as well.

 

Damien Williams best year in 2016 he had 112 cumulative air yards on only 31 targets, and of course, pulled in as many TDs, 3, as Zeke had on more than 3x the targets because of it. In 2018, Damien Williams had an abysmally low Air Yards and ADot in the earlier regular season, when he was used exclusively on dump offs and lateral throws in the flat. But last few games and especially the playoffs those numbers ballooned back to his average range and so did his fantasy numbers, once Reid started using him more downfield. It is pretty wild how if Mahomes hadn’t overthrown a WIDE OPEN Williams in the AFC title game on his way into the end zone that the Chiefs likely would have gone to the Super Bowl, even with the offsides penalty from hell.

 

 

Hope this all makes sense.

 

Dude their averaging a distance of 2 and 3 yards down field. Their not running real routes. 90% of all their routes are wheels slants and outs. It's not like their mike Evans and averaging 16 yards per target. 

What does matter is how many yards they get per catch a d for his career damien William's averages 8.3 yards per catch. Zeke averages 8.9 yards per catch.  So even tho he is only catching them at a half hard in front of the line of scrimmage he still gets more yards. He's elite in the recieving category. And he had 77 receptions and his FPPT was still low because he didnt have enough TDs. As I've showed over and over the TDs are the most important thing especially once it gets to bell cow territory.

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4 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

Im dealing in facts and stats, not completely ridiculous hypotheticals. This is such an embarrassing and cringeworthy post on your part, from start to finish. I can’t even.

 

Everything he said was a fact

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2 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Everything he said was a fact

 

No it wasn’t. They were random hypotheticals and they were pathetic. 

 

Here are facts that are indisputable and actually true:

 

Bell has played in 62/96 possible games in his career.

In those 62 games, he has been targeted 397 times.

He has 7 career receiving TDs.

 

This was all in one of the most potent offenses the league has ever seen with every advantage in the world.

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7 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

No it wasn’t. They were random hypotheticals and they were pathetic. 

 

Here are facts that are indisputable and actually true:

 

Bell has played in 62/96 possible games in his career.

In those 62 games, he has been targeted 397 times.

He has 7 career receiving TDs.

 

This was all in one of the most potent offenses the league has ever seen with every advantage in the world.

 

Everything was a fact. He simply tried to  show you what bells fantasy points would've been if he got the TDs that gurely or LT got. He was showing you that bell was the best back in fantasy despite poor TD rates meanwhile LT and gurely need astronomical touchdown number just to put up the points bell did. Bell was amaizing not inefficient. Just had poor TD rates... which go to show you why his FPPT is so low!

 

 

So do you just go around drafting nothing but recieving backs because of their high FPPT. Like I'd imagine theres no way your going to draft a zeke or a nick chubb when you could have Duke johnson and austin ekeler and of course damien William's.

 

Edited by Stonej14
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I think a lot of people are underestimating the jets this season, I'm expecting a big jump from Darnold and the receiving core is decent enough. 

 

The division is not difficult at all compared to years past, patriots will be slumping as well. These are just basic thoughts but Bell is going to get a lot of chances in a poor division and a favorable season schedule in general....Bell will be the best player in the AFC East = major fantasy points. Only time will tell. 

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7 hours ago, elroypedro said:

 

Its not “creative” at all. It is straightforward and provably true analysis. Those stats do not lie. It’s all been laid out clearly here, anybody should be able to understand, a reasonable person would assume.

 

It's not the stats, it's your interpretation of them.  Your arguments are basically the rational equivalent of saying "Hey, Frank Gore has many more career fantasy points than Saquon Barkley.  Gore should be drafted ahead of him."

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