David Johnson 2019 Outlook

[Jags02 151]

When I weight probabilities, I'd say there's a very high probability that Arizona's pass happy scheme is going to fail in the NFL as all those rookies learn their way. I'm a little nervous about DJ getting very few rushing reps while on a team that's going to mostly line up 3 or 4 WRs out there.

[buzzkilloton 248]

4 hours ago, Jags02 said:

When I weight probabilities, I'd say there's a very high probability that Arizona's pass happy scheme is going to fail in the NFL as all those rookies learn their way. I'm a little nervous about DJ getting very few rushing reps while on a team that's going to mostly line up 3 or 4 WRs out there.

 

He was with going by memory not looking what RB 9 last season? That was in the worst offense ITL. No way he cant beat that finish if hes healthy. 

[joshua18 7,029]

3 hours ago, buzzkilloton said:

 

He was with going by memory not looking what RB 9 last season? That was in the worst offense ITL. No way he cant beat that finish if hes healthy. 

 

Exactly. No reason he can't get 100+ targets if ARI throws as much as we expect them to.

[bomont 808]

I'm not interested in Johnson but agree. Not like they're exactly loaded with receiving options.

[RMJ_12 1,737]

10 hours ago, Jags02 said:

When I weigh probabilities, I'd say there's a very high probability that Arizona's pass happy scheme is going to fail in the NFL as all those rookies learn their way.

Fitz, Kirk, DJ, and Seals-Jones aren't rookies.  It's not like he's throwing 4 rookies out there as starters.  They'll see limited playing time just like every other rookie.

 

10 hours ago, Jags02 said:

I'm a little nervous about DJ getting very few rushing reps while on a team that's going to mostly line up 3 or 4 WRs out there.

They aren't taking the RB off the field to run 4 WR sets.  They're taking a TE off the field.

[Ryansm11 2,133]

Anyone drafting this guy hoping for another 2000 yard 20 touchdown season will be disappointed. However, I really do like him this year. He held his own in a terrible offense last year and I believe he will have a much better season this year. I know they have a guy who wants to run the “air raid” but at the end of the day he wants to be successful. When you have a rookie QB your RB is your best friend. They will lean on Johnson, their best playmaker, every game. 1st round guy for sure in my opinion. 

[RMJ_12 1,737]

10 hours ago, Ryansm11 said:

Anyone drafting this guy hoping for another 2000 yard 20 touchdown season will be disappointed.

You don't draft a guy in the middle of the 1st expecting that.  You don't draft anyone expecting that.

[Jags02 151]

13 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

Fitz, Kirk, DJ, and Seals-Jones aren't rookies.  It's not like he's throwing 4 rookies out there as starters.  They'll see limited playing time just like every other rookie.

 

They aren't taking the RB off the field to run 4 WR sets.  They're taking a TE off the field.

 

That doesn't mean they're throwing to DJ with 4 WRs out there. He'll get some sure, but he's not racking up catches in 4-WR sets. Most often in those sets they'll need him to pick up blitzers.

[RMJ_12 1,737]

1 hour ago, Jags02 said:

That doesn't mean they're throwing to DJ with 4 WRs out there. He'll get some sure, but he's not racking up catches in 4-WR sets. Most often in those sets they'll need him to pick up blitzers.

Then why did Kingsbury's RB's catch so many passes in college?

 

You're making assumptions based on what helps your argument rather than the truth.

Edited June 25, 2019 by RMJ_12

[Boudewijn 4,655]

20 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

Then why did Kingsbury's RB's catch so many passes in college?

Because I'm an @#$% I like to check those things:

2018: RBs were 5, 7 and 10 in receptions; top RB had 28 rec (on 227 completions)
2017: RBs were 5, 7 and 12 in receptions; top RB had 27 rec (on 328 completions)
2016: RBs were 7, 8 and 13 in recs; top RB had 21 rec on 388 completions
2015, 2014 and 2013 were similar. Pass/run in most seasons was around 65/35%

So, let's translate that to a NFL offense on 16 games:

- in 2018 the Cards ran around 350 times, with 500 pass attempts (283 rec)

Those numbers look quite similar to what Kingsbury did in his offenses; however last season DJ was the #2 receiver with 50 rec, which is significantly higher than how KK ran his offenses the past couple years.

BTW small print: I realise I haven't been very consistent on KK and his beloved air raid; I started repeating the claims of others, then I found KK hasn't said too much about using the air raid in the NFL, and this is the first time I actually looked into the actual numbers. I also realise that those number are skewed possibly because most college RBs are not fully functional receivers, while DJ is everything you hope for if you want somebody to catch the ball. The above numbers are just to see if you say "so many passes", how many passes we were talking about.

[RMJ_12 1,737]

1 hour ago, RMJ_12 said:

Then why did Kingsbury's RB's catch so many passes in college?

 

You're making assumptions based on what helps your argument rather than the truth.

 

1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Because I'm an @#$% I like to check those things:.

"so many passes" as in the 6th most in the nation over the past 4 years.

 

Comparing college numbers to nfl numbers isn't a good idea.

[Ryansm11 2,133]

6 hours ago, RMJ_12 said:

You don't draft a guy in the middle of the 1st expecting that.  You don't draft anyone expecting that.

I don’t, a lot of people seem to think he’s going to be like he was that season and honestly that really just doesn’t get repeated. 

[Boudewijn 4,655]

44 minutes ago, RMJ_12 said:

"so many passes" as in the 6th most in the nation over the past 4 years.

Cool. I didn't see that stat, do you have a link?
I do find they were 2nd in completions in 2018, but that's for all receivers: https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/years/2018-team-offense.html

[FollowTheLeader 468]

While not fantasy related, Maurice Jones Drew rated David Johnson as the 25th best RB in the NFL

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001034041/article/ranking-all-32-rb1s-heading-into-2019-saquon-barkley-no-1

Absolutely ridiculous

[Mr2Saint 161]

18 minutes ago, FollowTheLeader said:

While not fantasy related, Maurice Jones Drew rated David Johnson as the 25th best RB in the NFL

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000001034041/article/ranking-all-32-rb1s-heading-into-2019-saquon-barkley-no-1

Absolutely ridiculous

 

The fact that MJD has Jordan Howard, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy and a rookie (Jacobs), who’s never seen a snap in the NFL, ahead of DJ shows how out of touch he is.

[bomont 808]

You mean some NFL players are clueless and shouldn't be allowed to prove it on any sports channel or site? No way!  

I just think Johnson is overpriced given all the question marks and will avoid. That probably bodes well for those targeting him.

Edited June 25, 2019 by bomont

[DerrickHenrysCleats 6,008]

AzCardinals.com's Darren Urban expects David Johnson's receiving skills to "come back to the forefront" under new coach Kliff Kingsbury.

This is a widely-held belief all across the industry, but it is still nice to hear it coming from a canny team observer like Urban. In addition to more creative usage, Johnson should also benefit from improved quarterback play and more raw plays. Now going on 28, Johnson is trying to bounce-back to high-end RB1 status after a pair of lost seasons.

[lvsaint429 1,774]

I compare Johnson with Murray to when Manning was a rookie & they leaned on Faulk.  Both backs are versatile & great in space.  High percentage short passes to get Johnson in space will replace a lot of the up the middle runs.  I don't think it's unreasonable to expect 60 catches & 1600 total with 10 total TD's.  Worth a late 1st round pick or $55 in auction

[klindsay87 44]

Pretty quiet thread for a guy as interesting as DJ this season with new coach expected to run 70 plays/gm and a new shiny QB to work with.

[Dislimb 1,411]

Something scares me about him. He’s going high enough in drafts (ADP of 5th ovr in 0.5 point PPR per FFC) to where I won’t have any shares. I definitely wouldn’t take him over the first tier of WRs (Hopkins, Julio, etc.) this season once the big 4 RBs are off the board. 

[BrianM 1,294]

i also wasn't super high on taking him in the first, but its hard as hell to find even 10 guys better than him.  

i'll have him in keeper for sure, so I'm already in.   In auction, its a no, only because i'd just spend the extra $ on a top four back, and i dont expect DJ to be significantly less than those guys.   

[bomont 808]

His history is too spotty for me. One great year, one injured year, one bad year. Yes you can say bad coaching and all that last year...I don't disagree, but I still have this uneasy feeling it wasn't all someone else's fault. He's just going too high for me.

[HarambeLives 336]

14 minutes ago, bomont said:

His history is too spotty for me. One great year, one injured year, one bad year. Yes you can say bad coaching and all that last year...I don't disagree, but I still have this uneasy feeling it wasn't all someone else's fault. He's just going too high for me.

 

Seem to be seriously underestimating what he can do. 

[bomont 808]

It isn't just about what he can do, but how likely I think he is to do it. Whole truckloads of players can do great things, but what are the odds? That's largely what determines draft rank. 

[smeeze 6,168]

2 minutes ago, bomont said:

It isn't just about what he can do, but how likely I think he is to do it. Whole truckloads of players can do great things, but what are the odds? That's largely what determines draft rank. 

This is gibberish. DJ is a top-5 RB in terms of talent and will get a top-5 workload. The question marks are the rookie QB and the rookie head coach’s ability to call a competent offense.