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David Johnson 2019 Outlook


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5 minutes ago, WVFalcon said:

I pick 4th in a 10 team standard league this Sunday. I don't really feel comfortable picking unsigned Zeke or DJ there, but RB's are more valuable in standard so I feel like WR is also too high to take there. I think I'd rather have Chubb,Gurley, or Connor over DJ, but I feel like that is reaching for the 4th pick. I feel like 4th and 5th are the worst positions to draft at right now : /

 

Pray to the fantasy gods that Zeke signs this week.

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Would have been nice if he said this before the game.

Did your backup get all the reps in your furniture moving business while you were out?  That’s the only part of your analogy that us Chase Edmonds owners care about.

this is what fantasy football has come to 🤦🏻‍♂️

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im confused why so low on him all of a sudden. I don't think they broke out that new shiny offense yet. yes his line is bad but that's not stopping people from drafting barkley. don't get me wrong hes not barkley but I feel like in ppr if you draft 5-6 then hes a nice workhorse to grab.

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I never really understood how he became the consensus RB5 this year and always had him below Conner/Mixon/Chubb.  

1. He's only every really put one great full season

2. He's older than people realize at 27 years old

3. People point to his finish last season as RB9 and act like that establishes a safe floor.  If you owned him last season you would be massively disappointed if he put up the same performance as last year.  While his year end number were nice given that he played the entire year, you would have routinely played the "WW pickup of the week" over him on a  weekly basis.

4. The situation is better this year with a creative playcaller and more exciting starting QB.  However, that's about the only thing that's changed with this offense and I don't think a new rookie QB and the Texas Tech Head Coach is going to suddenly turn this into a top end offense.

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41 minutes ago, Chwf3rd said:

I never really understood how he became the consensus RB5 this year and always had him below Conner/Mixon/Chubb.  

1. He's only every really put one great full season

2. He's older than people realize at 27 years old

3. People point to his finish last season as RB9 and act like that establishes a safe floor.  If you owned him last season you would be massively disappointed if he put up the same performance as last year.  While his year end number were nice given that he played the entire year, you would have routinely played the "WW pickup of the week" over him on a  weekly basis.

4. The situation is better this year with a creative playcaller and more exciting starting QB.  However, that's about the only thing that's changed with this offense and I don't think a new rookie QB and the Fired Texas Tech Head Coach is going to suddenly turn this into a top end offense.

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The optimism is that the team has stated multiple times that they are keeping their cards close to their chest. Even players that have gotten interviewed in regards to what is going on have more or less said "it's a surprise". There was almost zero chance you'd get DJ in the 9-12 range prior to the preseason and now there's a solid shot. If you don't read too much into the preseason it's a very good option. DJ himself said he is very excited for this season.

The age argument is a joke. 27 is one of the most common ages for a RB to hit their peak. He also was quite limited his rookie year and two years ago he played half a game. 

 

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I drafted Johnson when I had the #5 pick in a PPR league at the beginning of August but if I had a chance to pick again, I wouldn't take him.  After seeing how the Cardinals first team offense looks, I'm not confident in him at all now.

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1 hour ago, Chwf3rd said:

I never really understood how he became the consensus RB5 this year and always had him below Conner/Mixon/Chubb.  

1. He's only every really put one great full season

2. He's older than people realize at 27 years old

3. People point to his finish last season as RB9 and act like that establishes a safe floor.  If you owned him last season you would be massively disappointed if he put up the same performance as last year.  While his year end number were nice given that he played the entire year, you would have routinely played the "WW pickup of the week" over him on a  weekly basis.

4. The situation is better this year with a creative playcaller and more exciting starting QB.  However, that's about the only thing that's changed with this offense and I don't think a new rookie QB and the Texas Tech Head Coach is going to suddenly turn this into a top end offense.

 

1.  Misleading.  He has played 4 seasons.  One of those seasons was a 1 game season so we throw that out.  Of the remaining 3, arguably 2 were great.  His rookie season he was behind Chris Johnson and didn't play until the end, where we went ballistic and earned a 1st round fantasy pedigree for the following year.  2016 he went bonkers.  It was only last year, when he had a horrible offensive scheme and line, that he stunk (and he really stunk).

2.  Yes but his first season was when he was 24, and he missed an entire season.  He has basically only played 3 full seasons, which is not a lot of wear and tear.

3.  Agree with this.  I had him and I hated him.

4.  That's your opinion and it's fair.  Nobody actually knows how they're going to do since it's totally new and they haven't shown anyone anything in preseason.  The argument for it being better is not faith in the air raid, but the fact that it ISN'T last years crap show.

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Just now, sjm76 said:

I drafted Johnson when I had the #5 pick in a PPR league at the beginning of August but if I had a chance to pick again, I wouldn't take him.  After seeing how the Cardinals first team offense looks, I'm not confident in him at all now.

The coach AND players have repeatedly said they’re keeping their cards close to their chest until the season starts.

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23 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

The optimism is that the team has stated multiple times that they are keeping their cards close to their chest. Even players that have gotten interviewed in regards to what is going on have more or less said "it's a surprise". There was almost zero chance you'd get DJ in the 9-12 range prior to the preseason and now there's a solid shot. If you don't read too much into the preseason it's a very good option. DJ himself said he is very excited for this season.

The age argument is a joke. 27 is one of the most common ages for a RB to hit their peak. He also was quite limited his rookie year and two years ago he played half a game. 

 

 

You are kidding yourself if you think DJ hasn’t peaked. He’s a big name but his best days are behind him and there are a lot of highly talented, ascending young RBs in far better situations that are set to surpass him, if they haven’t already. Chasing the past rarely works out in fantasy at the RB position.

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3 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

You are kidding yourself if you think DJ hasn’t peaked. His best statistical days are behind him. He’s a big name but his best days are behind him and there are a lot of highly talented, ascending young RBs in far better situations that are set to surpass him, if they haven’t already.

I think you’re kidding yourself. RB is just as much about OPPORTUNITY as it is skill set. DJ will see just as much work as any other cowbell in the league, probably even more. He saw the 5th most snap counts last year on a historically bad offense and still winded up a top 10 fantasy run. I think anyone who knows football can understand how poorly DJ was used last year. With a new coaching change and scheme, DJ can be very, and I mean very successful.

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4 minutes ago, Athebaby7 said:

I think you’re kidding yourself. RB is just as much about OPPORTUNITY as it is skill set. DJ will see just as much work as any other cowbell in the league, probably even more. He saw the 5th most snap counts last year on a historically bad offense and still winded up a top 10 fantasy run. I think anyone who knows football can understand how poorly DJ was used last year. With a new coaching change and scheme, DJ can be very, and I mean very successful.

Kyler Murray is the key.  If he can keep defenses honest then Johnson could have a big season but that offensive line is a problem.

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7 minutes ago, Athebaby7 said:

I think you’re kidding yourself. RB is just as much about OPPORTUNITY as it is skill set. DJ will see just as much work as any other cowbell in the league, probably even more. He saw the 5th most snap counts last year on a historically bad offense and still winded up a top 10 fantasy run. I think anyone who knows football can understand how poorly DJ was used last year. With a new coaching change and scheme, DJ can be very, and I mean very successful.

He looks very tentative running and that OL is still crap. Can't deny that.

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2 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Kyler Murray is the key.  If he can keep defenses honest then Johnson could have a big season but that offensive line is a problem.

The offensive line is bad. The offense is bad. The team is bad. He won't have much running room, let alone touchdown opportunities. And sure, the coaching change could make him successful. The tempo alone should help him. But Kliff also has (by far) the least impressive resume of any newly minted NFL head coach I can ever remember. It'd be hard to be worse than McCoy and Wilks. But it's certainly possible, too.

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Just now, sjm76 said:

That's the same thing I saw so far in the preseason.  That's why I regret drafting him now.

Honestly speaking from experience (played pro ball 4 years and had spring training multiple times) a guy like DJ is not trying to impress in pre season. Everyone knows what he can and has done. Pre season is important to a young rb trying to win a job. But for a seasoned pro, it’s a about reps and building yourself up to peak when season starts, not peaking at preseason. I cannot disagree with the fact that the OL struggled last year and most likely will again. But I do believe that it doesn’t matter how DJ does in preseason. He has nothing to prove in the preseason 

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17 minutes ago, Athebaby7 said:

I think you’re kidding yourself. RB is just as much about OPPORTUNITY as it is skill set. DJ will see just as much work as any other cowbell in the league, probably even more. He saw the 5th most snap counts last year on a historically bad offense and still winded up a top 10 fantasy run. I think anyone who knows football can understand how poorly DJ was used last year. With a new coaching change and scheme, DJ can be very, and I mean very successful.

 

Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Mixon, Carson, Conner, and Bell all have the same opportunity as DJ, and they all have better situations. DJ was great because of TDs and receiving. The TDs won’t be there, the yardage on the ground won’t be great, as it wasn’t especially outstanding even in his prime. His only chance at an RB1 finish is if he is a 70+ catch guy again, and even if he replicates that, the rushing and TDs won’t sniff his peak. He’s a mid-high end RB2, like last season.

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3 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Mixon, Carson, Conner, and Bell all have the same opportunity as DJ, and they all have better situations. DJ was great because of TDs and receiving. The TDs won’t be there, the yardage on the ground won’t be great, as it wasn’t especially outstanding even in his prime. His only chance at an RB1 finish is if he is a 70+ catch guy again, and even if he replicates that, the rushing and TDs won’t sniff his peak. He’s a mid-high end RB2, like last season.

Data doesn’t back up your idea of him being past his prime. 

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2 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Mixon, Carson, Conner, and Bell all have the same opportunity as DJ, and they all have better situations. DJ was great because of TDs and receiving. The TDs won’t be there, the yardage on the ground won’t be great, as it wasn’t especially outstanding even in his prime. His only chance at an RB1 finish is if he is a 70+ catch guy again, and even if he replicates that, the rushing and TDs won’t sniff his peak. He’s a mid-high end RB2, like last season.

I can name off issues for every single person you just mentioned. Some are extremely risky. And I still would take DJ over all of them. DJ’s floor is high and safe. Last year was worst case scenario for him. And still ended up with good numbers. There’s no reason to believe his td’s won’t be there. The cardinals offense cannot get any worse than last year. The only way is up.

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9 minutes ago, Athebaby7 said:

I can name off issues for every single person you just mentioned. Some are extremely risky. And I still would take DJ over all of them. DJ’s floor is high and safe. Last year was worst case scenario for him. And still ended up with good numbers. There’s no reason to believe his td’s won’t be there. The cardinals offense cannot get any worse than last year. The only way is up.

 

I really don't agree with the "safe floor" argument.  If he performs the same way he did last year then he will be a huge bust as the #4 or #5 overall pick.  This is a weekly game and last year his owners were playing the waiver wire RB flavor of the week over him.

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1 minute ago, Chwf3rd said:

 

I really don't agree with the "safe floor" argument.  If he performs the same way he did last year then he will be a huge bust as the #4 or #5 overall pick.  This is a weekly game and last year his owners were playing the waiver wire RB flavor of the week over him.

I got him #9 in my 12 team standard league. It’s possible he drops. I’ll absolutely take him at #9

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29 minutes ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Cook, Fournette, Chubb, Mixon, Carson, Conner, and Bell all have the same opportunity as DJ, and they all have better situations. DJ was great because of TDs and receiving. The TDs won’t be there, the yardage on the ground won’t be great, as it wasn’t especially outstanding even in his prime. His only chance at an RB1 finish is if he is a 70+ catch guy again, and even if he replicates that, the rushing and TDs won’t sniff his peak. He’s a mid-high end RB2, like last season.

 

Last season he finished as RB10 in standard, total points. I think that’s RB1. 

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