Patrick Mahomes 2019 Outlook

[psygolf 2,791]

3 minutes ago, dashoe said:

isnt this when somene ususally chimes in with the "let me join your league if u draft a kicker in the first" line

Dash...Q: are you always an "also-ran" when your 1st pick gets hurt early-?

[Gohawks 10,066]

11 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

The fundamental flaw of your argument is you have to fill 1 slot for QB in a single QB league and u need to fill 4+1  starting position slots  with rb/wr and this does not include bench slots where people do stashes and cuffs and lottery tickets thus further depleting the talent pool to fill those positions.   Each successive round of  a draft the wr/rb position depletes faster than the any other position. 

Rarely do you see guys scramble to fill a lost QB but every season people scramble weekly to fill in rb/wr slots over the course of a season and the talent isnt always on the waiver it may be on the bench which other players can't compete to acquire.

It's a number game

 

 Every year we debate on this forum about which round to take the #1 QB and it won't change because every player has their particular draft philosophy

 

That isn't a fundamental flaw because if what you are stating wasn't taken into account, based on the advantage Mahomes provided, he would be the undisputed first overall pick next season. However, with that taken into account it drops him down 10+ picks or so.

[dashoe 6,462]

17 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

TE1: 12.0

TE2: -1.3

TE12: -6.8

 

Which is why this is extremely laughable. People won't touch Mahomes yet will take a TE in the first two rounds. Yet you only need one of each and the advantage Mahomes provides guys like Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz don't even come close to. There's really no reason to waste an early pick on a TE in all honesty. People think these TEs are worth so much because everyone else is averaging under 6 points but even the top TEs aren't scoring that much in the first place relative to other positions. So the deviation from the mean isn't as big as people make it out to be.

 

 

This where your process goes wrong without context. Every season  there are maybe 1-2 standout te's not because of the point diffential but because they put up those points consistently every week. whereas other te's will get their points in chunks so the season long  averages of ppg dont really apply.   A top 2 TE usually performs close to a top 12 wr

Thus the  talent pool of te production is very thin which is why people will take a  swing at a te in a higher round. QB is not thin and is very deep and pretty predictable because you know QB x will  have a given range of pass attempts vs certain teams; which is why u can stream the position with some accuracy week to week whereas streaming TE's is a volatile strategy given how unpredicatble their usage is.

[Gohawks 10,066]

Just now, dashoe said:

 

 

This where your process goes wrong without context. Every season  there are maybe 1-2 standout te's not because of the point diffential but because they put up those points consistently every week. whereas other te's will get their points in chunks so the season long  averages of ppg dont really apply.   A top 2 TE usually performs close to a top 12 wr

Thus the  talent pool of te production is very thin which is why people will take a  swing at a te in a higher round. QB is not thin and is very deep and pretty predictable because you know QB x will  have a given range of pass attempts vs certain teams; which is why u can stream the position with some accuracy week to week whereas streaming TE's is a volatile strategy given how unpredicatble their usage is.

My argument is not how high QBs should be drafted vs TEs. This thread is the Mahomes thread not the QB thread. Mahomes performed so much better than everyone else thus he should be drafted so much higher than everyone else. I mean, I also don't really agree with your claim either way but that's beside the point for the purpose of this thread.

[psygolf 2,791]

We wouldn't be arguing against picking Rodgers in the first 2 rds *if he had thrown 50 tds.

[bhawks489 3,678]

Why isn't mahommes getting the Watson treatment in here... 

 

Probably a good bet for top 3 QBs but I'll wait in a snake draft. Still rather take a shot on a 3rd round RB/WR

[Zak0221 910]

2 hours ago, smetana34 said:

The chargers are just as good, if not better, than the Chiefs. There's going to be constant competition for the division. The possibility of only getting 15 weeks is a distant thought in my mind. We got 16 weeks this year in his historic season; it's not going to get any better than that moving forward. Better than that meaning the outlook for the chiefs isn't any better than what we saw this year

 

Its certainly something fantasy owners SHOULD take into consideration before using a 1st round pick on the player ( if your league uses Week 17)

 

That's all I am saying, not that it is a certainty he will only play 15 games, it's just he is way more likely than say another great fantasy QB like Big Ben or Rodgers now that GB is no longer an elite team.  

[JJ1223 1,849]

2018 was fun while it lasted.  Alas, it is probably the only time I'll ever own Patrick.

[dashoe 6,462]

19 minutes ago, psygolf said:

We wouldn't be arguing against picking Rodgers in the first 2 rds *if he had thrown 50 tds.

 

Rodgers, brady, Brees and even watson have been argued  on how high to draft them every season they were  viewed as a #1 QB and the consenseu every year has always been rd2 as the reach and rd3 is where those who want to own them feel comfortable taking them.

[psygolf 2,791]

38 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Rodgers, brady, Brees and even watson have been argued  on how high to draft them every season they were  viewed as a #1 QB and the consenseu every year has always been rd2 as the reach and rd3 is where those who want to own them feel comfortable taking them.

Brady's adp after his 50 td season...1.06

 

 

....same for Manning in 2014

Edited January 4, 2019 by psygolf

[dashoe 6,462]

12 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Brady's adp after his 50 td season...1.06

 

 

....same for Manning in 2014

 

 Exactly and i'm sure if u pull up those old threads u had the same debate as it is happening now about mahommes, this is every season

[bhawks489 3,678]

QBs used to be drafted all the time in the first look at the last few years ADP...you have to go back to 2015 to find one in the top 12 (Luck).

 

i doubt he goes round 1 outside of a few yahoos picking him there 

[psygolf 2,791]

37 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

QBs used to be drafted all the time in the first look at the last few years ADP...you have to go back to 2015 to find one in the top 12 (Luck).

 

i doubt he goes round 1 outside of a few yahoos picking him there 

If he lights up the playoffs...I'll be saying yoo-hoo

[Flyman75 4,873]

The great thing about the debate in here is that it doesn’t matter to me 😁. I play in one league, and it’s a keeper. So I’ll be the proud owner of Mahomes for the low, low price of an 11th round pick. 

 

In a redraft, however, I’m far more concerned about filling out my RB and WR than I am my QB...until later. 

[diverz4 101]

4 hours ago, Gohawks said:

TE1: 12.0

TE2: -1.3

TE12: -6.8

 

Which is why this is extremely laughable. People won't touch Mahomes yet will take a TE in the first two rounds. Yet you only need one of each and the advantage Mahomes provides guys like Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz don't even come close to. There's really no reason to waste an early pick on a TE in all honesty. People think these TEs are worth so much because everyone else is averaging under 6 points but even the top TEs aren't scoring that much in the first place relative to other positions. So the deviation from the mean isn't as big as people make it out to be.

And the thing your analysis hasn't even touched is how many of those top 24 RBs were drafted in the top 24? Or, better yet, how many of the top 24 drafted RBs were performing like that in weeks 14-16? 

[Gohawks 10,066]

31 minutes ago, diverz4 said:

And the thing your analysis hasn't even touched is how many of those top 24 RBs were drafted in the top 24? Or, better yet, how many of the top 24 drafted RBs were performing like that in weeks 14-16? 

An earlier post I made talked about percentage of RBs drafted later that were in the top 24

Edited January 5, 2019 by Gohawks

[1972Miamidolphins 1,374]

All player threads that are still in playoffs should have their 2019 outlook blocked.

 

 

[ZappB 656]

The talk of his PPG advantage is nice but doesn't that depend on assuming he'll score as many points next year?  For the sake of argument let's drop his passing stats to 4,500/40 with the same rushing stats, would people still want to take him late 1st or in the 2nd?  How about 4500/35?  You could say that there's no reason to think his numbers will change if the team remans the same overall, but was that not true during the crazy years that Manning or Brady or Brees had in the past?

[Zak0221 910]

15 minutes ago, ZappB said:

The talk of his PPG advantage is nice but doesn't that depend on assuming he'll score as many points next year?  For the sake of argument let's drop his passing stats to 4,500/40 with the same rushing stats, would people still want to take him late 1st or in the 2nd?  How about 4500/35?  You could say that there's no reason to think his numbers will change if the team remans the same overall, but was that not true during the crazy years that Manning or Brady or Brees had in the past?

 

The only opposite side of the coin in Mahomes favor is he did this in basically his rookie year as a starter.   The other dudes had careers that were good before their blow up statistical seasons and then they returned back closer to career norms.  This dude might be a 45 TD a year guy - we just don't quite know so at least this next season and especially if he blows up in playoffs, will likely be a 1st/2nd round pick.  

 

If he suddenly 'only' throws 35 TDs next year then a QB won't be selected in 1st/2nd round for a long time again...until Lamar Jackson blows up lol. 

[psygolf 2,791]

34 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

All player threads that are still in playoffs should have their 2019 outlook blocked.

 

 

 Disagree...the 2018 threads need to be locked.

[WEIL3R 250]

If Mahomes scores 5 more points than the second best QB in 2019 then he is worth a first round pick.  That can't be argued against in any successful way.  

 

The only debate is his odds of outpacing the field with that kind of margin again next year.  I think he has a decent shot due to his talent, coaching staff and youth (room for improvement) but it didn't happen for Peyton and Brady after their monster years.  We will just have to wait and see.  I'd be comfortable taking him in the second  or the end of the first in 6 point TD leagues, barring some major changes before next season.

 

Mahomes looks special.  I wasn't nearly as sold on Watson's hot start last year.  This guy is in the perfect situation, surrounded by offensive talent and great coaching.

 

 

[bhawks489 3,678]

5 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

If Mahomes scores 5 more points than the second best QB in 2019 then he is worth a first round pick.  That can't be argued against in any successful way.  

 

The only debate is his odds of outpacing the field with that kind of margin again next year.  I think he has a decent shot due to his talent, coaching staff and youth (room for improvement) but it didn't happen for Peyton and Brady after their monster years.  We will just have to wait and see.  I'd be comfortable taking him in the second  or the end of the first in 6 point TD leagues, barring some major changes before next season.

 

Mahomes looks special.  I wasn't nearly as sold on Watson's hot start last year.  This guy is in the perfect situation, surrounded by offensive talent and great coaching.

 

 

Are you talking 5 more points a GAME? if its just 5 points then who gives a bleep. 

 

I just wouldnt be chasing last years leader in any category with a steep price.

[psygolf 2,791]

7 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I just wouldnt be chasing last years leader in any category with a steep price.

So you're trading out of the first 1-3 rds-? ...odd strategy.

[bhawks489 3,678]

7 minutes ago, psygolf said:

So you're trading out of the first 1-3 rds-? ...odd strategy.

What? alright i guess ill type it out.

 

Id rather not spend a first round on mahomes chasing his #1 overall 5 point lead QB when the next QB is gone round 4 or so. 

 

Same with TE and same with K/DEF (ill probably drop down a round or 2 for the K/DEF just to get one from a decent D or high powered offense)

[Gohawks 10,066]

1 hour ago, ZappB said:

The talk of his PPG advantage is nice but doesn't that depend on assuming he'll score as many points next year?  For the sake of argument let's drop his passing stats to 4,500/40 with the same rushing stats, would people still want to take him late 1st or in the 2nd?  How about 4500/35?  You could say that there's no reason to think his numbers will change if the team remans the same overall, but was that not true during the crazy years that Manning or Brady or Brees had in the past?

That argument works for literally any position and player.