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Joe Mixon 2019 Outlook


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24 minutes ago, Ball So Hard said:

 

Doesn't this also sound like consensus #1 Fantasy pick Saquon Barkley? I think you're reading too much into it. Running backs on bad teams put up big fantasy numbers all the time.

 Barkley is a generational talent and although the giants suck they have an easier schedule, better oline, better defense, and better QB. 

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Me at the Mixon Fan Club Meeting last night  

Me reading this and getting hyped pregame

Yeah the "his offense sucks" is always an unending argument.  You've got "the defense will key on my guy" vs. "he'll get a lot more volume because the rest of his team sucks".  Have at it if you want, but I've never seen this one decided ever.

Feel free to hop to the Marlon Mack thread if you like this particular argument.

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45 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

but you are comparing them ..

see, Barkley is a generational/HoF super elite talent that could produce behind a line made up of the Little Sisters of the Poor, with Danny DeVito playing QB and the Olsen Twins at WR ..Mixon is not/will not/cannot. 

 

this punk has BUST written all over him. 

 

Except... He literally led the AFC in rushing yards last year while averaging 4.9 YPC on a 6-10 Bengals team. He's going to have the workload of a top fantasy RB, including passing game work, but you can get him in the 2nd round as potentially your RB2. Sure, his bad team limits his potential to be in the top 5-ish of running backs, but I'm not necessarily looking for that home run in the 2nd round, I think his floor is extremely safe. 

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2 minutes ago, Ball So Hard said:

 

Except... He literally led the AFC in rushing yards last year while averaging 4.9 YPC on a 6-10 Bengals team. He's going to have the workload of a top fantasy RB, including passing game work, but you can get him in the 2nd round as potentially your RB2. Sure, his bad team limits his potential to be in the top 5-ish of running backs, but I'm not necessarily looking for that home run in the 2nd round, I think his floor is extremely safe. 

 

I see him going in the late 1st quite often in mocks.  Standard scoring.  You might get him at the top of the 2nd round but I wouldn't bank on getting him in the 2nd.

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9 minutes ago, Ball So Hard said:

 

Except... He literally led the AFC in rushing yards last year while averaging 4.9 YPC on a 6-10 Bengals team. He's going to have the workload of a top fantasy RB, including passing game work, but you can get him in the 2nd round as potentially your RB2. Sure, his bad team limits his potential to be in the top 5-ish of running backs, but I'm not necessarily looking for that home run in the 2nd round, I think his floor is extremely safe. 

 

the AFC is freakin' weak sauce in the RB dept ... no great shakes - here was the stellar field behind him last year:

 

Pats - no Hoodie RB will ever lead the league in anything but fantasy headaches. 

Bills - an over the hill Shady? on that offense?

Jets/Dolphins - bwahahahaha!

Stillers - Conner balled, missed 3 to injury. 

Ravens - Gus the Bus? Alex Butterfingers? Buck Allen?

Browns - Chubbo got a late start, best RB in the conference, by far. 

Titans - Henry was misused early.

Texans - Lamar frickin' Miller? lol

Colts- Marlon Mack, yeah ... no. 

Jags - Fournette is a foogin' trainwreck. 

Chargers - MGIII missed time with injury. 

Chiefs - Hunt booted for kicking a defenseless chick ( hey, maybe him n' Mixon can double date sometime soon!!1!11!)

Broncos - Lindsey's story is cute, but, c'mon

Raiders-  'nuff said. 

 

not exactly a murderer's row of talent there ... sorta like being the prettiest bearded lady, amirite?

 

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31 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

the AFC is freakin' weak sauce in the RB dept ... no great shakes - here was the stellar field behind him last year:

 

Pats - no Hoodie RB will ever lead the league in anything but fantasy headaches. 

Bills - an over the hill Shady? on that offense?

Jets/Dolphins - bwahahahaha!

Stillers - Conner balled, missed 3 to injury. 

Ravens - Gus the Bus? Alex Butterfingers? Buck Allen?

Browns - Chubbo got a late start, best RB in the conference, by far. 

Titans - Henry was misused early.

Texans - Lamar frickin' Miller? lol

Colts- Marlon Mack, yeah ... no. 

Jags - Fournette is a foogin' trainwreck. 

Chargers - MGIII missed time with injury. 

Chiefs - Hunt booted for kicking a defenseless chick ( hey, maybe him n' Mixon can double date sometime soon!!1!11!)

Broncos - Lindsey's story is cute, but, c'mon

Raiders-  'nuff said. 

 

not exactly a murderer's row of talent there ... sorta like being the prettiest bearded lady, amirite?

 

You can make excuses for every RB in the league if you like, but Mixon missed 2 games too, and still led the AFC.

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3 minutes ago, smeeze said:

You can make excuses for every RB in the league if you like, but Mixon missed 2 games too, and still led the AFC.

 

OMG!!!!  I HAD NO IDEA!!!

THIS.

CHANGES. 

EVERYTHING.

i can't believe he overcame such hardship to to finish ahead of such an amazing field of challengers!!!1!!!1!1!11!  HE IS LT2/ADP/FAULK/EMMIT/BARRY/JIM BROWN INCARNATE!

 

aaaaaaaaaamaaaaaaaazing!

 

HE MISSED 2 GAMES!??  WOW!!

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3 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

OMG!!!!  I HAD NO IDEA!!!

THIS.

CHANGES. 

EVERYTHING.

i can't believe he overcame such hardship to to finish ahead of such an amazing field of challengers!!!1!!!1!1!11!  HE IS LT2/ADP/FAULK/EMMIT/BARRY/JIM BROWN INCARNATE!

 

aaaaaaaaaamaaaaaaaazing!

 

HE MISSED 2 GAMES!??  WOW!!

 

This sounds sarcastic.

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37 minutes ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

OMG!!!!  I HAD NO IDEA!!!

THIS.

CHANGES. 

EVERYTHING.

i can't believe he overcame such hardship to to finish ahead of such an amazing field of challengers!!!1!!!1!1!11!  HE IS LT2/ADP/FAULK/EMMIT/BARRY/JIM BROWN INCARNATE!

 

aaaaaaaaaamaaaaaaaazing!

 

HE MISSED 2 GAMES!??  WOW!!

You cite Conner and Gordon for missing 2-3 games in 2018 elite offenses yet you can give Mixon the same benefit of the doubt? I generally appreciate your over-the-top zany sarcasm but it is quite clear you have an agenda here.

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5 hours ago, pastorofmuppets2 said:

 

the AFC is freakin' weak sauce in the RB dept ... no great shakes - here was the stellar field behind him last year:

 

 

So compare him to the NFC as well. Still 4th in rushing yards and 3rd in rushing yards per game.

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Honestly, I'm not sure what else to say other than to look at the stats (which was already done, but I'll do it a bit more in depth).  On a per game basis, Mixon was 3rd with 83.43 RushYds/game on about 17 attempts/game.  Of players with more than 100 rush attempts, 6 of the top 10 RuYds/Attempt were in the AFC, and Mixon (4.93 yards/attempt) would not be in the top 10, actually (he was number 11, just behind CMC, who was 10, and ahead of D. Henry at 12).  When you increase to 150 attempts, again, 6 of the top 10 were in the AFC, and this time, Mixon was 7th.  If you look at Rush Attempts per game, Mixon led the AFC and was 4th in the league.  So, from a pure rushing and "attempts" standpoint, Mixon is right up there with the best of them, either in the AFC or NFC.

The problem is in a PPR setting or when looking at scoring.  Since Cincy is not great, Mixon won't have many opportunities to score, and they don't pass to him a whole lot.  That is where the biggest improvement would have to be in order for Mixon to join the elite RB1 category.  That likely won't happen.  But he could be a MGIII or DJ (from past years) if he can do that (and Cincy allows him to).  

For fantasy purposes, when looking at actual numbers, in PPR through Week 16 (when many leagues have their championship due to the potential irrelevance of week 17) of the 2018 season, Mixon ranked 10th in total points even though he only played 13 games to that point (he was still 10th through the whole season).  Interestingly, 5 of the top 10 RBs in PPR points were in the AFC.  11 of the top 20 were AFC.  17 of the top 30.

In Standard scoring, again, 5 of the top 10 were AFC, but only 10 of the top 20 (still 1/2), 16 of top 30.

So, you can say all you want that "AFC RBs sucked last year," but the numbers don't bear that out.  I'll give you that the NFC guys were better for fantasy purposes, in part because I don't think there's as much depth of talent in the NFC.  There are more 3-down RBs in the NFC, so you get more out of them.  There is also more talent at the top, I'll give you that (can't even claim Bell sitting hurt the AFC because Conner was great).  But to say they "sucked" is oversimplifying.  There are more 3rd down COP RBs in the AFC.

Okay, enough from me.

Your move. 

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On 8/27/2019 at 10:21 AM, Brownsfan74 said:

 

I see him going in the late 1st quite often in mocks.  Standard scoring.  You might get him at the top of the 2nd round but I wouldn't bank on getting him in the 2nd.

 

I was able to draft him with the next to last pick of the 2nd rd (19th overall) in my 10 team half point PPR league. 

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Somehow he slipped to third round in my draft so I snagged him. Barkley, Kamara, DJ, Zeke, Chubb, Cook, Gurley, Bell, Aaron Jones all went ahead of him in my 10 man. Although I think I made a fatal mistake of drafting Kittle in the second so I guess it evens out for me.

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Bad guy.  Good RB. Guys like him I always hope he gets injured. He deserves worse than that but he has 2 to 3 more years before he’s washed up. Dudes a total scumbag. I’m glad he’s on a garbage team and am going to laugh every time he gets phased out when the opponent is running out the clock then his crappy team has to chuck it deep every play and all the owners are crying about his 2nd half touches. What’s the over under he commits another felony assault this year?

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5 minutes ago, Krambone said:

Bad guy.  Good RB. Guys like him I always hope he gets injured. He deserves worse than that but he has 2 to 3 more years before he’s washed up. Dudes a total scumbag. I’m glad he’s on a garbage team and am going to laugh every time he gets phased out when the opponent is running out the clock then his crappy team has to chuck it deep every play and all the owners are crying about his 2nd half touches. What’s the over under he commits another felony assault this year?

 

So you're thinking around 8th-9th RB off the board?

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6 minutes ago, Krambone said:

Bad guy.  Good RB. Guys like him I always hope he gets injured. He deserves worse than that but he has 2 to 3 more years before he’s washed up. Dudes a total scumbag. I’m glad he’s on a garbage team and am going to laugh every time he gets phased out when the opponent is running out the clock then his crappy team has to chuck it deep every play and all the owners are crying about his 2nd half touches. What’s the over under he commits another felony assault this year?

 

In recent years, I've tried to take emotion out of fantasy football. Seems like every time I put emotion into my drafts or waiver picks, it backfires in the most stupendous way.

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2 minutes ago, Willsea33 said:

 

So you're thinking around 8th-9th RB off the board?

 

Right, um no. I don’t draft RB from bad teams... only WR or Passing backs from bad teams with decent QBs. It’s just not fun needing points and having your RB on the sidelines while the team is in a hurry up or 4 min personnel. 

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2 minutes ago, Krambone said:

 

Right, um no. I don’t draft RB from bad teams... only WR or Passing backs from bad teams with decent QBs. It’s just not fun needing points and having your RB on the sidelines while the team is in a hurry up or 4 min personnel. 

 

Seems like a well thought out strategy. Guess Barkley isn't the #1 RB simply because he's on a "bad team." 

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Just now, Willsea33 said:

 

Seems like a well thought out strategy. Guess Barkley isn't the #1 RB simply because he's on a "bad team." 

If your web site says he’s the best and you think he’s the best draft him.. if I was sitting with a pick to draft Barkley I would trade down and get Chubb and obviously trading a great pick I would be getting another hookup connected to the trade. Yeah I want no part of the roller coaster rides that comes with bad teams figuring out when and how to utilize their stud RB. Put Barkley on Houston or SD and I’m all over it. Back to Mixon it’s a hard pass due to his team and I can’t cheer for a thug like him.

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36 minutes ago, Krambone said:

Bad guy.  Good RB. Guys like him I always hope he gets injured. He deserves worse than that but he has 2 to 3 more years before he’s washed up. Dudes a total scumbag. I’m glad he’s on a garbage team and am going to laugh every time he gets phased out when the opponent is running out the clock then his crappy team has to chuck it deep every play and all the owners are crying about his 2nd half touches. What’s the over under he commits another felony assault this year?

 

I take it youre passing on Tyreek Hill too? Honestly who cares if a guy is a scumbag. It shouldnt matter when it comes to fantasy.

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23 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

Got this guy at 25 in a PPR league last night. The discount for being on a crappy team seems pretty ridiculous but I’ll take it. 

 

Absolute steal.  I think the really negative people in here haven’t really sat down and watched him play in CIN or at Oklahoma.  Talent wise he’s right up there with any RB in the league.  Plus even with the OL injuries this offense should be improved with a healthy Dalton the entire year and a new offensive minded HC.

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