Joe Mixon 2019 Outlook

[daethfromabove1979 874]

34 minutes ago, Krambone said:

Great finish to the season for this criminal. I hope he gets caught next time he does something stupid and criminal. Guys like him are why people are losing interest in the National Felon League.

If it’s against your morals to draft anyone with off field issues then don’t draft them. I don’t feel bad about winning leagues with guys like Mixon and Tyreek on my team though.

[Krambone 397]

21 hours ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

If it’s against your morals to draft anyone with off field issues then don’t draft them. I don’t feel bad about winning leagues with guys like Mixon and Tyreek on my team though.

Hahhaha, I jump into the boat with all the best players I can get. The hard part is rooting for them.

[Corleone 1,967]

Mixon is an interesting one for 2020. I was looking at how his career has gone so far in PPR...

--2017
RB ADP: #20
Final RB Rank: #33
Mixon underwhelms pretty much all season. He has just one 100-yard rushing game, 62 or less rushing yards in his other 11 games through Week 13, is injured for Week 14 and Week 15, and has a dud in the Week 16 Fantasy Finals, with just 32 total yards.
Then he puts up his second-best rushing game in Week 17, with 96 rushing yards (which for most fantasy owners, is useless and not applicable). 

--2018
RB ADP: #14
Final RB Rank: #9
Through Week 13, Mixon is the #13 RB, right in line with his ADP amongst RB's. He misses 2 games with injuries, has just one 100-yard rushing game, scores 6 TD's, and gets 755 rushing yards.
Then from Week 14--Week 17, he puts up 3 TD's and 413 rushing yards (with three 100-yard rushing games). Like in 2017, one of his best games of the season comes in Week 17, as he rushes for 105 yards on just 13 carries. 

--2019
RB ADP: #10
Final RB Rank: #13
Through Week 13, Mixon is the #18 RB and is a big disappointment to his owners. For the third-straight season, he has just one 100-yard rushing game, scores 5 TD's, and gets 643 rushing yards.
Then from Week 14--Week 17, he puts up 3 TD's and 494 rushing yards (with three 100-yard rushing games). Like in 2017 and 2018, he's a Week 17 star. That's his best game of the season, with 176 total yards and 2 TD's.

There seems to be a recurring theme. In all 3 seasons, Mixon doesn't exceed expectations through Week 13 (and in 2 of 3 seasons, performs significantly below expectations). Then he turns it on during Week 14--Week 17. Week 17 as discussed is useless for the majority of people. And many of the owners who had him may not have even made the playoffs, with his underperformance being one of the reasons why. But with the strong finishes to his seasons, he gets fantasy owners excited, helping his ADP the next season...and then repeats all over again.

Now to be fair, 3 seasons like this, does NOT mean that this will be the case for 2020. The Bengals will have changes to their team, most notably at QB (with likely #1 pick Joe Burrow at the helm). And maybe the Bengals will keep in place the offensive line scheme that worked for him in late-2019. Perhaps Mixon can be more consistent during the first 13 weeks of the season AND produce during the fantasy playoffs as well. Ending the season as the #9 and #13 RB's the last two seasons is nothing to sneeze at...even if he didn't play to that level through 75% of the football season. Overall, I just think it's worth noting how his prior seasons have played out. Because he has kind of tricked fantasy owners before...

[StevenSC400 1,002]

He’s going to be a prime bounce back candidate next year. I’ll be targeting him in the 3rd-4th round. He will most likely drop that far in next years draft.

[Sonny_D 1,964]

1 hour ago, StevenSC400 said:

He’s going to be a prime bounce back candidate next year. I’ll be targeting him in the 3rd-4th round. He will most likely drop that far in next years draft.

In what kind of leagues does a Mixon fall to #30-40? Even though I never buy into it (until this year with OBJ but NEVER again), for arguments sake let’s just say there’s 5-6 “Safe elite” WR’s, who in the world is filling the other 24-34 slots before Mixon comes up? I don’t know, I just think this is absurd. 

[StevenSC400 1,002]

11 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

In what kind of leagues does a Mixon fall to #30-40? Even though I never buy into it (until this year with OBJ but NEVER again), for arguments sake let’s just say there’s 5-6 “Safe elite” WR’s, who in the world is filling the other 24-34 slots before Mixon comes up? I don’t know, I just think this is absurd. 

Who says 30-40? You know how rounds work? Pick 25 would be the third round in 12 team leagues. In 10 team leagues it would be pick 21. I could easily name 24 players someone could take over mixon. 4th round might be a stretch but again it’s possible.

[daethfromabove1979 874]

13 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

He’s going to be a prime bounce back candidate next year. I’ll be targeting him in the 3rd-4th round. He will most likely drop that far in next years draft.

I bet he will be gone by the late second in most leagues. Mixon was one of nine RBs to have 300 touches this year and he’s also just really good. 

[affliction 2,172]

The hype is going to be real when they draft Burrow Mixon will definitely be within the top 25 picks. I think he is the best QB prospect since Luck.

[StevenSC400 1,002]

40 minutes ago, daethfromabove1979 said:

I bet he will be gone by the late second in most leagues. Mixon was one of nine RBs to have 300 touches this year and he’s also just really good. 

He was a second round pick this year. I have no idea how he doesn’t drop at least a little bit. I know I’m not touching him in the second round. It’s not worth the risk.

[daethfromabove1979 874]

1 hour ago, StevenSC400 said:

He was a second round pick this year. I have no idea how he doesn’t drop at least a little bit. I know I’m not touching him in the second round. It’s not worth the risk.

 

The early year issues seemed to be the offensive line. Mixon was quite good once Cordy Glenn came back from injury and they changed their running scheme. Add Jonah Williams next year and maybe some additional O-line help and I think he will end up in a similar draft spot. I can see the risk because if they have O-line injuries again then he's in trouble.

[Sonny_D 1,964]

2 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

Who says 30-40? You know how rounds work? Pick 25 would be the third round in 12 team leagues. In 10 team leagues it would be pick 21. I could easily name 24 players someone could take over mixon. 4th round might be a stretch but again it’s possible.

 

1 hour ago, StevenSC400 said:

He was a second round pick this year. I have no idea how he doesn’t drop at least a little bit. I know I’m not touching him in the second round. It’s not worth the risk.

But you’ll take him at 25.....

[dashoe 6,462]

8 hours ago, StevenSC400 said:

Who says 30-40? You know how rounds work? Pick 25 would be the third round in 12 team leagues. In 10 team leagues it would be pick 21. I could easily name 24 players someone could take over mixon. 4th round might be a stretch but again it’s possible.

 

 Are not sort of slicing it thin with pick 25 technicality but adamantly stating that he wouldnt be a 2nd rd pick for u?🤣

[StevenSC400 1,002]

6 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 Are not sort of slicing it thin with pick 25 technicality but adamantly stating that he wouldnt be a 2nd rd pick for u?🤣

 

6 hours ago, Sonny_D said:

 

But you’ll take him at 25.....

You guys love to twist things around in order to fit your narrative. I said the third round would be picks 21-25 in 10-12 leagues just as a comparison to someone who said 3rd-4th round would be picks 30-40. I also never said I would take him even at 25. There’s a lot of other players I would have no problem taking over him. I guess it would depend on how my draft went but I would probably consider taking him around pick 30 maybe. He def isn’t going to be one of my first two picks. Again if he was second round this year why would I take him again at that price when he flopped for half the season. The guy who owned him never recovered. It didn’t matter what he did in the second half anymore. Same thing could happen next year. Why take that chance with your first two picks. 

[dashoe 6,462]

16 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

 

You guys love to twist things around in order to fit your narrative. I said the third round would be picks 21-25 in 10-12 leagues just as a comparison to someone who said 3rd-4th round would be picks 30-40. I also never said I would take him even at 25. There’s a lot of other players I would have no problem taking over him. I guess it would depend on how my draft went but I would probably consider taking him around pick 30 maybe. He def isn’t going to be one of my first two picks. Again if he was second round this year why would I take him again at that price when he flopped for half the season. The guy who owned him never recovered. It didn’t matter what he did in the second half anymore. Same thing could happen next year. Why take that chance with your first two picks. 

 

I didn't twist anything around nor do I have a narrative. I just thought it was odd to say you wouldnt draft in the  1st 2 roundsbut would target him in the 3rd -4th assumming 12man leagues yet in the same breath say you could name 24 players ahead but how hard is that line between #24 and 25? 😂

You premise sort of doesnt make sense given the landscape of fantasy football and the volatility of player production

Mixons volume and relatively injury free season will dictate that he does not make it to the 3rd round given the way rb's go early in drafts. Could you name 10rb's that will trade ahead of him assumming?

Also please tell us from 2019 draft ADP who actually performed at or exceeded their ADP? Based on your criteria you stated above almost 80% of the players listed below would not make your top 24 list. I see a lot of broken fantasy dreams with that ADP 🤣

 

1    Saquon Barkley NYG 
2    Christian McCaffrey CAR 
3    Alvin Kamara NO 
4    Ezekiel Elliott DAL
5    DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
6    David Johnson ARI 
7    Davante Adams GB 
8    Le'Veon Bell NYJ 
9    James Conner PIT 
10    Michael Thomas NO 
11    Julio Jones ATL 
12    Odell Beckham Jr. 
13    Todd Gurley LAR 
14    JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 
15    Travis Kelce KC 
16    Tyreek Hill KC 
17    Dalvin Cook MIN 
18    Nick Chubb CLE 
19    Joe Mixon CIN 
20    Patrick Mahomes KC 
21    Antonio Brown     
22    Mike Evans TB 
23    Adam Thielen MIN 
24    Keenan Allen LAC

[affliction 2,172]

42 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I didn't twist anything around nor do I have a narrative. I just thought it was odd to say you wouldnt draft in the  1st 2 roundsbut would target him in the 3rd -4th assumming 12man leagues yet in the same breath say you could name 24 players ahead but how hard is that line between #24 and 25? 😂

You premise sort of doesnt make sense given the landscape of fantasy football and the volatility of player production

Mixons volume and relatively injury free season will dictate that he does not make it to the 3rd round given the way rb's go early in drafts. Could you name 10rb's that will trade ahead of him assumming?

Also please tell us from 2019 draft ADP who actually performed at or exceeded their ADP? Based on your criteria you stated above almost 80% of the players listed below would not make your top 24 list. I see a lot of broken fantasy dreams with that ADP 🤣

 

1    Saquon Barkley NYG 
2    Christian McCaffrey CAR 
3    Alvin Kamara NO 
4    Ezekiel Elliott DAL
5    DeAndre Hopkins HOU 
6    David Johnson ARI 
7    Davante Adams GB 
8    Le'Veon Bell NYJ 
9    James Conner PIT 
10    Michael Thomas NO 
11    Julio Jones ATL 
12    Odell Beckham Jr. 
13    Todd Gurley LAR 
14    JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 
15    Travis Kelce KC 
16    Tyreek Hill KC 
17    Dalvin Cook MIN 
18    Nick Chubb CLE 
19    Joe Mixon CIN 
20    Patrick Mahomes KC 
21    Antonio Brown     
22    Mike Evans TB 
23    Adam Thielen MIN 
24    Keenan Allen LAC

I see about 30% of that list not being in the top 24 next year. 

[dashoe 6,462]

7 minutes ago, affliction said:

I see about 30% of that list not being in the top 24 next year. 

 

I think that is a fair assessment to make. It's the rb's who will fall the hardest. Wr's have a way of retaining high draft value even after bad seasons. I can see scenarios where juju and OBJ and thielen easily stay in the top 24 shifting a few spots here and there.

But i dont see a scenario of a healthy +20 touch starting rb who finished the 2nd half of the season as a rb8 falling into the 3rd round, particularly as the coaching staff pivoted midseason and changed their blocking schemes to get the failed running game going. That would defy logic.

[StevenSC400 1,002]

2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I think that is a fair assessment to make. It's the rb's who will fall the hardest. Wr's have a way of retaining high draft value even after bad seasons. I can see scenarios where juju and OBJ and thielen easily stay in the top 24 shifting a few spots here and there.

But i dont see a scenario of a healthy +20 touch starting rb who finished the 2nd half of the season as a rb8 falling into the 3rd round, particularly as the coaching staff pivoted midseason and changed their blocking schemes to get the failed running game going. That would defy logic.

Not in any particular order. McCaffrey zeke Barkley henry Gurley a Jones Kamara Mack Fournette Chubb Ingram Jacobs Carson(if healthy) can all potentially be drafted before mixon. Then you got guys like hunt Gordon ekeler whose status can really change depending on off season moves. Then you got Lamar Kelce Kittle and then you got all the WRs left and new draft picks etc. Again in ten team leagues he is most likely a third round pick for sure. In 12 teams probably around pick 27-30 or so. But he can slip further too. I have no idea why its so hard to see him slipping to the 3rd. Again I wouldn’t take my chance on him in the second. 

Edited January 4, 2020 by StevenSC400

[dashoe 6,462]

58 minutes ago, StevenSC400 said:

Not in any particular order. 

McCaffrey

zeke

Barkley

henry

Gurley -injury+vol risk

a Jones

Kamara

Mack --👉injury+volume risk with other rbs+potential contract extension risk 

Fournette -👉-injury+coaching+organizational/contract/trade risk

Chubb-- 👉coaching+Hunt risk

Ingram -- 👉volume risk with 2 young improving rb's in a shared backfield

Jacobs -- 👉injury+unpredictable gruden risk

Carson(if healthy) - 👉injury+fumbles+contract risk  and high probability Petey adds competition in the backfield. SEA is not kind to broken rb's

can all potentially be drafted before mixon. Then you got guys like hunt Gordon ekeler whose status can really change depending on off season moves. Then you got Lamar Kelce Kittle and then you got all the WRs left and new draft picks etc. Again in ten team leagues he is most likely a third round pick for sure. In 12 teams probably around pick 27-30 or so. But he can slip further too. I have no idea why its so hard to see him slipping to the 3rd. Again I wouldn’t take my chance on him in the second. 

 

So I added my notes in redin your above post gurley-carson-mack-jacobs-ingram are guys I wouldnt draft ahead of mixon for various reasons from injuries, to complicated backfields, to volume issues to coaching uncertainty. We have already witnessed the  Cin coaching staff learn from their early season mistakes and make adjustments to the run game.  Fournette and Chubb will have question marks in the offseason so I have them even with mixon until further information. 

 

Again I will state +20 touch rb's almost never make it into the 3rd round in this era of rbbc unless they simply just have a history of sucking like Lamar Miller. So I appreciate your efforts of talking about the potential of Mixon falling but the probability of that is extremely low given the reality given his 2nd half performance and volume.  

You are essentially willing to bet on the least likely outcome for Mixon in the draft but attempting to convince people it is a likely outcome.😂

[StevenSC400 1,002]

18 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

So I added my notes in redin your above post gurley-carson-mack-jacobs-ingram are guys I wouldnt draft ahead of mixon for various reasons from injuries, to complicated backfields, to volume issues to coaching uncertainty. We have already witnessed the  Cin coaching staff learn from their early season mistakes and make adjustments to the run game.  Fournette and Chubb will have question marks in the offseason so I have them even with mixon until further information. 

 

Again I will state +20 touch rb's almost never make it into the 3rd round in this era of rbbc unless they simply just have a history of sucking like Lamar Miller. So I appreciate your efforts of talking about the potential of Mixon falling but the probability of that is extremely low given the reality given his 2nd half performance and volume.  

You are essentially willing to bet on the least likely outcome for Mixon in the draft but attempting to convince people it is a likely outcome.😂

And mixon has no risk? Lol. You been basically saying Chubb is gaurenteed his touches all year. Now your worried about hunt though. Lol you guys are funny on here. And I would take Jacobs, Ingram, and Carson if healthy over mixon 10/10 times next year. Mack, Chubb, Fournette are a solid maybe. Again that’s what you just fail to understand. Your personal rankings mean nothing. And I’m not trying to convince anyone. I could care less what you or anyone else does. All I said was mixon is going to be a prime bounce back candidate if you can get him in the 3rd or 4th. Which will be a possibility in some leagues whether you want to believe it or not. If he isn’t then he isn’t. Time to move on bro.

Edited January 4, 2020 by StevenSC400

[dashoe 6,462]

1 minute ago, StevenSC400 said:

And mixon has no risk? Lol. You been basically saying Chubb is gaurenteed his touches all year. Now your worried about hunt though. Lol you guys are funny on here. And I would take Jacobs over mixon 10/10 times next year. Again that’s what you just fail to understand. Your personal rankings mean nothing. And I’m not trying to convince anyone. I could care less what you or anyone else does. All I said was mixon is going to be a prime bounce back candidate if you can get him in the 3rd or 4th. Which will be a possibility in some leagues whether you want to believe it or not. If he isn’t then he isn’t. Time to move on bro.

 

Please stick to the facts.  I have always said Hunt was a risk to Chubb since the offseason. What I have also said is  Chubb had has the benefit of volume in the system but the risk was with hunt getting the passing down work and the inability of the team to score in the redzone due to playcalling or execution. It was evident since week 1 that Kitchens was struggling with play callling, personnel packages and the Browns were just a bad offense. Chubb had success during the season despite these issues because of his production with each touch and big play ability. 

Mixon had risk which was a new HC and an injured o-line + Gio signing a big offseason extension which is why I didn't draft Mixon. I traded for him around week 4 at his lowest point because i made the bet that his volume was stable and that the o-line would get healthier by 2nd half of the season. My bet was correct.

So waht we have learned is that the CIN coaching staff changed the run scheme and INCREASED his volume in the 2nd half, the risk in the offseason is that the coaches become too clever again and try to implement the same scheme as early season but i think that is a tolerable risk because i think Cin will improve  in the 2nd year with this offense and healthy players and create more scoring opportunities and sustained drives with Mixon on potentially less volume.

So you are entitled to your opinion but you need to make sense instead of promoting low probability outcomes as high probability outcomes and then hedging yourself with saying 3rd rd pick but he probably wont last but there are 24 other players you take ahead because Mixon had a bad 1st half of the season.

Your criteria and process are just plain bad.😂

[Cdub2k 1,259]

2020 Player Outlook

Despite the Bengals finishing 2-14 with the worst record in the league they were competitive in all but 4 games during the 2019 season. This allowed Joe Mixon to finish the season with 1400 Total yards and 8 Total TDs despite running behind one of the worst offensive lines in the NFL. Joe Mixon finished the season as the 11th ranked RB in Non-PPR standard scoring leagues (13th in PPR Leagues). With college phenom Joe Burrow coming on board the optimism is running high in Cincinnati as 2nd year Head Coach Zac Taylor will look to build on the positives that 2019 brought as well as improve on the weaknesses. The biggest positive was the commitment the team had after the bye week to the run. During those 8 games Mixon averaged 22 carries for 102 yards a game. A major 2019 weakness was closing games out. The Bengals were 0-8 in games decided by 1 score. Adding a dynamic gunslinger to the mix will be great news for Joe Mixon both as a rusher and as a pass catcher out of the backfield. It will also help balance out the offense and make the Bengals a more complete team. Joe Mixon is a solid #2RB with a sneaky good upside considering all factors. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Lets see how close this outlook mirrors ESPN's outlook a few months down the line.