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Trevor Story 2019 Outlook


Homerj24
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In his 3-MLB seasons, he's had two great hitting seasons and one just okay hitting season (coming off major thumb surgery) and still calls the best home park, home.

 

Don't have much to add. Speed broke out so you would think regression, but watching a decent amount of his games, pretty sure he was top 5 in the sprint score leader board. Lineup should be much improved by swapping out  Desmond for Murphy at 1b. Second base is probably an upgrade too figuring Hampson can replicate the On Base skills of DJ while McMahon or even Rodgers could bring some HR power to the position this year. Roster Resource has him hitting 5th. Assume 3rd or 4th verse lefties. Should be a fun ride assuming good health.

 

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4 hours ago, Homerj24 said:

Monster bounce-back season last year. Is it repeatable? 

 

For me it often comes down to looking at it in terms of tools.

 

There's no point in even discussing/debating his power. It's not debatable. He has some/it/aplenty. 

 

His speed did "breakout" so to speak in 2018. But is there any reason to believe it isn't repeatable? He's got good sprint speed / speed, is in the prime of his youth, and stole at a high rate. A 20 SB projection or at worst high-teens is more than fair.

 

The real lynchpin is the BA. He cut his K% by 5% last year. His Whiff% continues to be solid, at least for a High K% hitter. He plays in the best park in all of baseball for manipulating batted balls and turning them into hits. 

 

Could he whiff in BA again? Maybe. But I don't think so. He's worth it in the top 20 easily, an early 2nd round pick. 

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1 minute ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

I will have Correa, Lindor, Ramirez, Machado, Bregman, Baez, Bogarts, and maybe Seager ahead of him. Not in order of course.

 

 

To each his own. I wouldnt dream of taking Correa, Baez, Bogaerts, or Seager over Story. 

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2 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

I will have Correa, Lindor, Ramirez, Machado, Bregman, Baez, Bogarts, and maybe Seager ahead of him. Not in order of course.

 

Fixed that for you. Correa (health), Ramirez (who?-Jose isn't a SS), Bogarts (I'm just a perennial hater, doesn't play in Coors), Seager (Coors will make up in avg what Seager can't in HR and SB).

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26 minutes ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

I will have Correa, Lindor, Ramirez, Machado, Bregman, Baez, Bogarts, and maybe Seager ahead of him. Not in order of course.

Lindor, of course.

 

Machado and Bregman you could make a case for. The rest would be a huge mistake.

 

And Ramirez is not even a SS in any format, unless you're really off your rocker and referring to Alexei.

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Lindor, Bregman, Machado is about it. 

 

Baez is being drafted as peoples everyday 2B, who just has the flexibility to play SS when needed. Any argument for taking Baez first is 95% because he plays a position that is much more shallow in terms of top end talent.  Making his ranking as a SS rather moot.

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3 hours ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

I will have Correa, Lindor, Ramirez, Machado, Bregman, Baez, Bogarts, and maybe Seager ahead of him. Not in order of course.

 

After the season he had last year? Story was unbelievable!!

i own Correa in a dynasty league and I’d take Story over him every time. You have way to many guys ahead of story. 

Lindor, Machado and Bregman is where I draw the line. 

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5 hours ago, taobball said:

 

For me it often comes down to looking at it in terms of tools.

 

There's no point in even discussing/debating his power. It's not debatable. He has some/it/aplenty. 

 

His speed did "breakout" so to speak in 2018. But is there any reason to believe it isn't repeatable? He's got good sprint speed / speed, is in the prime of his youth, and stole at a high rate. A 20 SB projection or at worst high-teens is more than fair.

 

The real lynchpin is the BA. He cut his K% by 5% last year. His Whiff% continues to be solid, at least for a High K% hitter. He plays in the best park in all of baseball for manipulating batted balls and turning them into hits. 

 

Could he whiff in BA again? Maybe. But I don't think so. He's worth it in the top 20 easily, an early 2nd round pick. 

And these days what is "whiff" in batting average?  As you stated his one really low average year was also a pretty serious injury to a hitter, I always think in my roto league about being top 3 in categories as I head into the auction, 3rd place batting average was .270.  So even if he is down a bit, I think he would still be in a healthy floor scenario no worse than neutral in that category.  I personally think from what I read and looking at some early mocks, he is a bit undervalued.  

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First off, I am well aware that Story is a phenomenal fantasy asset, and everything truly came together last year (even more so than the '16 breakout) HOWEVER its safe to expect a bit of regression entering '19, rather than another step forward. That said (if I had shares) I'd try to capitalize on last years production should a fellow owner wish to pay for peak value, as it likely will not be replicated 

 

Reason for concern/Red Flags:

  • Elbow injury in the latter part of the season.  He has long battled upper body injuries, so its worthwhile to monitor any lingering effects.  
  • Extreme Home/Road Splits.  Like many before him, he pummels the ball at home but has been very pedestrian away from Coors. (3 yr average Road Stats: .243 AVG. .307 OB% & 11 HR). Worth monitoring if you own shares in long term keeper/dynasty.   
  • Slugging% splits (64 point in '18)
  • Inflated '18 BABIP (.345)
  • Slightly decreased flyball rate (ok....maybe its nitpicking)

 

Don't get me wrong, there is also plenty of reason for optimism as well.   The decrease in swinging strikeout rate (26%), in addition to the improved zone contact rate  (87%) are all promising.   Uptick in hard contact rate and increased HR/FB is also impressive.  The sprint speed ranked in the top 3% of the league, suggesting that he should continue to get the green light on the base paths....and oh yeah, he is just entering his prime at age 26.   

 

A  projection of .272/29/18 is nothing to shake a stick at and would still rank among the statistical leaders at his position, yet still pales in comparison to the sensational MVP type totals from a year ago.  I'd buy based around those tempered expectations....and be very satisfied with anything more. However, setting a greater expectation could very well leave one disappointed at the end of the day.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, F@ndemonium said:

First off, I am well aware that Story is a phenomenal fantasy asset, and everything truly came together last year (even more so than the '16 breakout) HOWEVER its safe to expect a bit of regression entering '19, rather than another step forward. That said (if I had shares) I'd try to capitalize on last years production should a fellow owner wish to pay for peak value, as it likely will not be replicated 

 

Reason for concern/Red Flags:

  • Elbow injury in the latter part of the season.  He has long battled upper body injuries, so its worthwhile to monitor any lingering effects.  
  • Extreme Home/Road Splits.  Like many before him, he pummels the ball at home but has been very pedestrian away from Coors. (3 yr average Road Stats: .243 AVG. .307 OB% & 11 HR). Worth monitoring if you own shares in long term keeper/dynasty.   
  • Slugging% splits (64 point in '18)
  • Inflated '18 BABIP (.345)
  • Slightly decreased flyball rate (ok....maybe its nitpicking)

 

Don't get me wrong, there is also plenty of reason for optimism as well.   The decrease in swinging strikeout rate (26%), in addition to the improved zone contact rate  (87%) are all promising.   Uptick in hard contact rate and increased HR/FB is also impressive.  The sprint speed ranked in the top 3% of the league, suggesting that he should continue to get the green light on the base paths....and oh yeah, he is just entering his prime at age 26.   

 

A  projection of .272/29/18 is nothing to shake a stick at and would still rank among the statistical leaders at his position, yet still pales in comparison to the sensational MVP type totals from a year ago.  I'd buy based around those tempered expectations....and be very satisfied with anything more. However, setting a greater expectation could very well leave one disappointed at the end of the day.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So I disagree with you on a few of your points.

 

Home / Road splits, while not "nothing," are just not a big deal for me. It's called the Coors effect, and is quite typical among Colorado Rockies hitters. The way the environment impacts the ball, hitters typically don't just play way better at home, but suffer pretty bad road numbers. Hitters like Nolan who consistently have good looking numbers on the road are a huge exception. So I don't consider having terrible road numbers a big deal. I would expect his numbers to go down if he left Coors, but the extremity of that split would also even itself out a bit. 

This is obviously my opinion, but what you're witnessing here is not an issue with Story, but rather a statistical anomaly that affects pretty much everyone who plays in Colorado.

 

Similarly, I don't considered his .345 BABIP inflated really at all. Projecting a .345 BABIP on a normal hitter takes a bit of a longer sample of a strong batted ball profile, but Coors influences BABIP more than any other park in baseball. His Career BABIP is .340 over 1626 PAs, which includes time spent injured. I wouldn't project lower than a .340 BABIP, and dont' consider it inflated at all. 

 

And then finally on the projection, .272 BA and 18 SBs are both completely fair and deeply in the realm of projection possibility. But I don't see any reason to project 29 HRs. That seems incredibly low based on Story's Career. He's averaged 35 HRs now per 640 PAs in his career. 

 

And if you get .272 / 33 / 18 out of an early 2nd round pick with good R+RBI, it'll be a fine selection. 

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17 hours ago, taobball said:

 

 

To each his own. I wouldnt dream of taking Correa, Baez, Bogaerts, or Seager over Story. 

 

this 100%

 

would love story on my team.  i just think SS is deep so i may go with a different position in the 2nd

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6 hours ago, taobball said:

 

So I disagree with you on a few of your points.

 

Home / Road splits, while not "nothing," are just not a big deal for me. It's called the Coors effect, and is quite typical among Colorado Rockies hitters. The way the environment impacts the ball, hitters typically don't just play way better at home, but suffer pretty bad road numbers. Hitters like Nolan who consistently have good looking numbers on the road are a huge exception. So I don't consider having terrible road numbers a big deal. I would expect his numbers to go down if he left Coors, but the extremity of that split would also even itself out a bit. 

This is obviously my opinion, but what you're witnessing here is not an issue with Story, but rather a statistical anomaly that affects pretty much everyone who plays in Colorado.

 

Similarly, I don't considered his .345 BABIP inflated really at all. Projecting a .345 BABIP on a normal hitter takes a bit of a longer sample of a strong batted ball profile, but Coors influences BABIP more than any other park in baseball. His Career BABIP is .340 over 1626 PAs, which includes time spent injured. I wouldn't project lower than a .340 BABIP, and dont' consider it inflated at all. 

 

And then finally on the projection, .272 BA and 18 SBs are both completely fair and deeply in the realm of projection possibility. But I don't see any reason to project 29 HRs. That seems incredibly low based on Story's Career. He's averaged 35 HRs now per 640 PAs in his career. 

 

And if you get .272 / 33 / 18 out of an early 2nd round pick with good R+RBI, it'll be a fine selection. 

 

I truly do respect your opinion.... however just to touch on your rebuttals.   

 

The "Coors Effect" on hitters is certainly a valid argument, however you'll notice that the majority Rockies regulars, two of which are also tabbed early in drafts, still managed to get on base with much greater regularity outside of the confines of Coors.   

 

Below are the OB% examples of Rox regulars away from Coors, cumulatively spanning the past three years:

Areando: .340

Blackmon: .343

Desmond: .321 (2 seasons)

LeMahieu: .327

.....All are far greater than Story's alarmingly low .307% over that same sample size.    

 

Luckily he isn't eligible for Free Agency until 2021, if I'm not mistaken, so the road concerns may be premature/not as currently significant, but still worth monitoring.  No one wants to be left holding the bag.  

 

The .345 BABIP mark proved a career high.  It begs to reason that number should regress, slight as it might be, towards his .340 career mark....maybe inflated was the wrong choice of word....but last years number seems poised to come down.    In addition, poor strikeout rates had plagued his minor/major career prior to last season, so personally, I'd want more than a 1 year sample size to substantiate that the 8% decrease in strikeout rate...and subsequent 7% increase in zone contact rate.... is a real thing.  

 

Lastly, in regards to projection,  it doesn't seem like were vastly separated in our forecasting.  The checkered injury past, specifically to the upper body (UCL, elbow, thumb, etc), certainly raises a red flag to me...possibly more than it does you.   No structural damage was discovered last September, and he performed well upon his return, but one has to wonder if any lingering effects will impact his swing into 2019.  Regardless, his injury history suggests that a trip to the disabled list should be penciled in at some point during the season.   Last years 598 at bats significantly toppled his previous high of 503. If forced to play the over/under on him duplicating, (or exceeding) that total, I'm taking the latter.  However thats simply a "gut feeling"

 

Ultimately, would it surprise me if he posted similar to your estimated totals (33 HR)?...Not in the least. Perhaps he even exceeds them.  Personally, I'd just want to see him replicate last years success before investing into his current market valuation.   

 

  

 

   

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6 hours ago, meh2 said:

ADP is way too low on Story, imo. He’s a first round grade for me.

 

I think 15 is a pretty good ranking for him, but I could see him sneaking into the back half of the first. He fell to 32 in my draft on Tuesday, no brainer there.

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I'm absolutely expecting 35/25 again from him. I could see the batting average anywhere from .265 - .300.

 

Story is fast as hell and hits the ball a mile with an easy looking swing. He plays a great shortstop too, he should get some MVP love this year (should've last year as well).

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 3/15/2019 at 8:01 PM, AlexxelA said:

How do we rate Story against Lindor for the future?  They are going close to eachother.

As of today i favor Story but only because I fear Lindor not running as much this year due to the calf injury. I have Story down for an easy 30/20 floor this year with a chance to break 40/30. He came very close last year and that was with him finishing the season banged up. He's one of the very rare true speed/power combos in the game.

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18 minutes ago, mike11 said:

I'm hesitant on him for some reason, he had a great year but doesn't scream safe to me when you look at where he's going in drafts.

Huh?  Does not compute.  If a player had a fantastic season like Story had last year then if people are drafting him too late you don't shy away.  You grin and mutter "what a bunch of idiots" and scarf him up asap!

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