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Antonio Brown 2019 Outlook


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Recent developments in AB's employment status, along with the continued inability of some users to keep their comments within the site guidelines, have forced us to lock this thread yet again.  If circumstances warrant, we will reopen.

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2 minutes ago, Idoolittle said:


Maybe Michael Thomas value? I'm just thinking of another high end receiver that is in a strong offense, but also has plenty of competition to deal within his own team.

 

Thomas does not have the same competition for targets. That whole offense is basically Kamara and Thomas. AB is competing with Edelman, White, and Gordon.

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Just now, miasma16 said:

p=m/V

Maybe he's made tens of millions of dollars and doesn't want to play for the Raiders. How are you people still not getting this? It's incredibly simple.

You are giving him waaaaay too much credit, and really laboring to try to come up with a spin to make him look good.  He wanted attention, he acted like a baby, he got slapped down in truly unprecedented fashion, causing him to lose $30 million guaranteed... and somehow this was the master plan?  Or he's just a buffoon.  Yeah, I'll go with the simpler solution - he's a buffoon.  I hope he turns things around.

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Just now, Lucius Seneca said:

You are giving him waaaaay too much credit, and really laboring to try to come up with a spin to make him look good.

Yeah, he gave up money to go from a joke of a franchise to the Super Bowl favorite. What a huge stretch I'm making.

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1 minute ago, griffin727 said:

 

Thomas does not have the same competition for targets. That whole offense is basically Kamara and Thomas. AB is competing with Edelman, White, and Gordon.

You could also look at it as those guys creating openings for him though. He can still get 8-10 targets playing with those guys and he'll be single covered!

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AB's not playing Week 1, and could see him seeing limited snaps in Week 2. He's missed at least one game to injury/suspension over the past three seasons. Let's say he starts 13 games this year. Should be targeted at minimum 140 times with about 90 receptions, 1120 yards and 12 TD's. 

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13 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

He's clearly a WR1 going into week 2. He's gonna have a major chip on his shoulder now that he's again playing for a contract and trying to prove all the nay sayers wrong.

Whoa slow down there LOL

Brown will probably be on a limited snap count until he gets up to speed with the playbook. WR1 for week 2 and week 3 is a little much.

In 2018, in his first game action with the Pats after being traded, Josh Gordon had a snap count of 22% in week 4 last season and 26% in week 5 before starting to get his standard snap share. While a different team, Golden Tate had 29% in his first game with the Eagles.

We really wont know about that "WR1" until probably around Week 4.

Edited by nonstopfan
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1 minute ago, sjs1890 said:

People need to start blasting Goodell for this entire situation he could have easily just suspended AB and avoided the obvious collusion that went on.

 

There's really nothing the NFL could legally do to Brown unless the Raiders wanted to push the issue. They clearly didn't. 

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Just now, SharkSwimmer said:

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.  Brown and the Patriots does not strike me as a marriage made in heaven.

The same was thought of as Randy Moss

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1 minute ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.  Brown and the Patriots does not strike me as a marriage made in heaven.

 

You sound like the inner dialogue of every other team in the NFL. Wishful thinking, imo. This offense is going to ball out. Brady looked sharp in pre-season. And Gronk is gonna come back, you just know it. 

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1 minute ago, nonstopfan said:

Whoa slow down there LOL

Brown will probably be on a limited snap count until he gets up to speed with the playbook. WR1 for week 2 and week is a little much.

In 2018, in his first game action with the Pats after being traded, Josh Gordon had a snap count of 22% in week 4 last season and 26% in week 5 before starting to get his standard snap share. While a different team, Golden Tate had 29% in his first game with the Eagles.

We really wont know about that WR1 until probably around Week 4.

To be fair, he's way freaking better than either of those guys. 

Even with a low-medium snap count he'll be bordering on WR1 in 12 team leagues. 

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6 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.  Brown and the Patriots does not strike me as a marriage made in heaven.

If it doesn’t work they cut like haynesworth.    Shocked so many are stunned by Bill's move to sign AB...Anybody follow history? He loves buying BIG talent when value is LOW He'll cut if it fails and get a Comp pick in 2020..No real risk. 

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4 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Don't count your chickens before they are hatched.  Brown and the Patriots does not strike me as a marriage made in heaven.

They invested good money in him and have a strong history of taking on troubled players and having success with them. Far from a given, but he's in about the best spot that he could have hoped for. 

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13 minutes ago, The G Man said:

 

If by better off you mean 21 mil lighter in the pocket, then yeah...he cool. 

 

12 minutes ago, Lucius Seneca said:

 

Agreed, except for that little thing about losing $20 million guaranteed.

 

10 minutes ago, Spyplane said:

Yeah, if he doesn't like job security and tens of millions of guaranteed money. It worked out really well for him if he wanted to get rid of that.

I’m talking from a fantasy football perspective. How much he makes isn’t really a concern to me. 

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6 minutes ago, mbell317 said:

To be fair, he's way freaking better than either of those guys. 

Even with a low-medium snap count he'll be bordering on WR1 in 12 team leagues. 

Josh Gordon is a great player in his own right who has had to deal with some outside distractions and Tate is known as a very smart guy. This isn't just about physical condition, if it was, look at Gordon's body bro. He has to get in the facility and learn an entire playbook and build rapport with a QB which is natural and take time. He will be limited to certain routes and while he can do well, we'll have to see. He works his a** off, but using his "brain" to get concepts, gaining trust from QB and coaching staff is another thing.

And please don't disrespect Josh freakin Gordon like that LMAO.

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1 minute ago, nonstopfan said:

Josh Gordon is a great player in his own right who has had to deal with some outside distractions and Tate is known as a very smart guy. This isn't just about physical condition, if it was, look at Gordon's body bro. He has to get in the facility and learn an entire playbook and build rapport with a QB which is natural and take time. He will be limited to certain routes and while he can do well, we'll have to see. He works his a** off, but using his "brain" to get concepts is another thing.

 

The guy is arguably the best route runner in the NFL, he's most likely a literal genius in learning those specific concepts. I don't think it's going to take very long for Brady and Brown to get on the same page. 

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Just now, Mr.STD said:

 

The guy is arguably the best route runner in the NFL, he's most likely a literal genius in learning those specific concepts. I don't think it's going to take very long for Brady and Brown to get on the same page. 

Brown is the best improve WR in the league. Brady will love that when plays break down.

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2 minutes ago, griffin727 said:

Thomas does not have the same competition for targets. That whole offense is basically Kamara and Thomas. AB is competing with Edelman, White, and Gordon.

 

Where have I heard this terrible logic before...

Oh that's right, Brandin Cooks 2017 Season Outlook. (Reminder 114/65/1082/7) (And is NOT Antonio Brown)

Predictable feeble minded foe response:
"but but but Edelman was hurt that year!"

You're right... setting aside that Edelman is always hurt (including right now in his first 3 snaps in the Week 4 Preseaon Game...)
Edelman's return and Gronks departure should balance out. (Brady is still going to throw the ball ~580 times for ~4500 yards)

It doesn't matter how reliable or safe previous targets have been.  You guys are treating AB like he's some raw, unknown, talent... he's one of, if not THE, best WR in the NFL, with impeccable route running, talent, speed, hands, and ability.

Will he be as good as he was with PIT?  No.
Will he be better than he was going to be with OAK? Yes.

You guys are acting like you drafted him #1 overall.  He was a late 2nd, early 3rd round pick.  The Pit days and price are out of the window, so it's a moot comparison or standard to hold him to.  Should be a top 12 WR from Week 5-16 in my opinion.

*I don't own a single share of AB.
I DO own James White, Josh Gordon, and Sony Michel.
James White gets a small decrease in value IMO, Josh Gordon will still be the big body Red Zone and Deep Threat, who might lose some looks, but will see significantly less defensive attention so I consider it a wash, and Sony Michel is the big winner, because the Pats love to Run the ball in the Red Zone, and defenses are going to have to cover the pass like never before.

Just my .02.

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