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Travis Kelce 2019 Outlook


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12 minutes ago, nromn said:

I'm targeting for those reasons and the fact that he historically has been healthy, which is a huge bonus and emphasis for me this year with my bigger money players.

That's a good point. It's not just how much you think he'll score but the odds of getting injured...

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For how much Moore targeted him tonight once he came in, I'm much less worried about Kelce than anyone else on that offense.

If you are looking for a "safe" player at the back end of the 1st or beginning of the 2nd, here's your selection.  This guy has more floor than Home Depot. 2016: 85-1125-4 TD 2017: 83-1038-8 TD

Was Mahomes just being cocky with that no look attempt? Because that was an automatic 6 for a wide open Kelce.

13 minutes ago, bomont said:

That's a good point. It's not just how much you think he'll score but the odds of getting injured...

Based on that, I've come around in considering him at the 12/13 turn.   Had been pretty set on going WR/WR but one of those WR is almost always OBJ who has had trouble staying on the field.  Strongly considering taking Kelce over him.

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16 minutes ago, K197040 said:

Based on that, I've come around in considering him at the 12/13 turn.   Had been pretty set on going WR/WR but one of those WR is almost always OBJ who has had trouble staying on the field.  Strongly considering taking Kelce over him.

Hard to go wrong stacking Hill/Kelce at the 12/13 turn. Obviously there is stand-alone value every week with each but you are also likely to offset any off-weeks by either with such a high scoring offense.

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10 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Hard to go wrong stacking Hill/Kelce at the 12/13 turn. Obviously there is stand-alone value every week with each but you are also likely to offset any off-weeks by either with such a high scoring offense.

I used that combo in 2017 to great effect. I didn't have both of them in 2018, but I just did a check and there were only two weeks all season in which owners didn't get much from either of them (unfortunately it was Weeks 15 & 16, where they were only average at best). Every other week, at least one of them did very well...and there were many weeks where both of them excelled. So I'm a fan of this strategy. 

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16 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

Hard to go wrong stacking Hill/Kelce at the 12/13 turn. Obviously there is stand-alone value every week with each but you are also likely to offset any off-weeks by either with such a high scoring offense.

Was kind of thinking Kelce/JuJu your comment and Corleon's have me keeping an open mind to Kelce/Hill

Another option I was thinking of was JuJu/Hill then reach at the 3/4 for Ingram.  

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If you are looking for a "safe" player at the back end of the 1st or beginning of the 2nd, here's your selection.  This guy has more floor than Home Depot.

2016: 85-1125-4 TD
2017: 83-1038-8 TD
2018: 103-1336-10 TD

He's been TE1 three straight seasons.

I don't necessarily expect a return to last season's levels but even 90-1100-6 TD would be good for 236 points in PPR, which is low-end WR1 numbers out of a TE.  

And Kelce has missed one game in the last five seasons.

Is James Conner a sure thing?  Beckham?  Is Gurley?  Is Le'Veon Bell?  No, no, no, and no.  If you don't like those options at the 1/2 turn (or want one "risky guy" and one "safe guy"), here's your pick.

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If I don't get Juju, ODB, or Cook I'm taking Kelce at number 16.

I've had Ertz the last two years and it's just a warm and fuzzy feeling having a stud TE and the guaranteed points. It's also nice to get that position out of the way and not have to predict/pray you land a productive TE in the middle to late rounds. Also, it's a good idea to get a piece of the KC offense and what a good piece Kelce is. Kelces numbers have been getting better so it's possible we haven't seen the best of him yet. Also, It's possible he misses a game and maybe two against Derwin James this year. Last year Kelce went only 8/67 against the Chargers in two games. 

My only fear is that the injuries to the Chargers(James) plus Gordon holdout, Indy loosing Luck, Houston losing Miller might make an easier path for KC to wrap up home field advantage early and rest it's key players down the stretch.

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I struggle every year going into the draft to take a TE really early. Kelce is the guy to do it and from the posts I have read here you all have got me rethinking again.

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7 minutes ago, CawCaw said:

I struggle every year going into the draft to take a TE really early. Kelce is the guy to do it and from the posts I have read here you all have got me rethinking again.

 

Ive only done it once, took Gronk in the second round one year (either 2014 or 2015) and won. If the value you project actually happens, it’s as if you are drafting a WR1. You should draft him after the WR that you think will put up more Fantasy points and before the one that puts up less. Everyone has a price, just forget he’s a TE. 

 

A lot of people say and I agree, “you can’t win your league in the first two rounds, but you can definitely lose it”. Most important thing in drafting in those two spots is ensuring the people you take hit your projections, and you then justify those picks by finding value in the middling rounds at other positions. 

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On 8/22/2019 at 11:56 AM, KennyWoo said:

If you are looking for a "safe" player at the back end of the 1st or beginning of the 2nd, here's your selection.  This guy has more floor than Home Depot.

2016: 85-1125-4 TD
2017: 83-1038-8 TD
2018: 103-1336-10 TD

He's been TE1 three straight seasons.

I don't necessarily expect a return to last season's levels but even 90-1100-6 TD would be good for 236 points in PPR, which is low-end WR1 numbers out of a TE.  

And Kelce has missed one game in the last five seasons.

Is James Conner a sure thing?  Beckham?  Is Gurley?  Is Le'Veon Bell?  No, no, no, and no.  If you don't like those options at the 1/2 turn (or want one "risky guy" and one "safe guy"), here's your pick.

His ceiling is also an entire skyscraper lower than those guys. I understand wanting to be safe at the bottom of the first or top of the second but I also need a higher ceiling. 

 

I love Kelce in the 20-25 range which means I won’t likely own him. 

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7 hours ago, lilremix328 said:

Kind of off topic but do you guys think Kelce is a better stack than Hill, if you were able to land Mahomes a bit late? I really love having a top tier TE that provides WR1 numbers and to just set and forget.

 

I think Mahomes + Kelce will be a fun, wild productive season. Many cheap WR like John Brown, Larry Fitz, TY Hilton now (lol), Mecole Hardman, Dede Westbrook, Michael Gallup, etc available.

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25 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

I think Mahomes + Kelce will be a fun, wild productive season. Many cheap WR like John Brown, Larry Fitz, TY Hilton now (lol), Mecole Hardman, Dede Westbrook, Michael Gallup, etc available.

 

IMO it’s a bad idea to take both a TE and a QB early... it leaves you thin at RB and WR.  So with this in mind, if you’re looking for a KC stack I would go with Hill/Mahomes instead.

With the state of TE and QB this year, I think Kelce is the much preferred reach since TE drops off quickly, and you can find a ton of value at QB late.

I am targeting Kelce mid second round, but unless Mahomes falls ridiculously far, I won’t own him at all.

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1 minute ago, SkinsChargersFan said:

 

IMO it’s a bad idea to take both a TE and a QB early... it leaves you thin at RB and WR.  So with this in mind, if you’re looking for a KC stack I would go with Hill/Mahomes instead.

With the state of TE and QB this year, I think Kelce is the much preferred reach since TE drops off quickly, and you can find a ton of value at QB late.

I am targeting Kelce mid second round, but unless Mahomes falls ridiculously far, I won’t own him at all.

 

What about Auction? 70 bucks give or take of 200.

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I want kelce in the worst way this upcoming draft but it's hard to grab tight ends early. What makes my situation easier is I have Conner as a keeper, and I have the first turn, so Thomas, Julio, hill mostly likely possible and then kelce with pick 11...so torn. Kelce is a monster tho 

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4 minutes ago, Corey In Da House said:

 

What about Auction? 70 bucks give or take of 200.

 

I think it’s less of a hinderance in auction compared to snake, but I’d still rather spend my funds elsewhere than QB.  However, if it’s a 6-PT passing TD league, I don’t think it’s as bad of an idea.

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Somehow fell to 18 in my first league draft, when I have this guy as a borderline top 10 player on my board. If you're around the turn, I would definitely pull the trigger on him - super high floor, low injury risk and elite production at a position that's not known for it in fantasy.

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5 minutes ago, Stallion said:

Somehow fell to 18 in my first league draft, when I have this guy as a borderline top 10 player on my board. If you're around the turn, I would definitely pull the trigger on him - super high floor, low injury risk and elite production at a position that's not known for it in fantasy.

 

I still have fond memories of trading Toby Gerhart for Travis Kelce back in 2014/2015. He was always going to be Gronks successor.

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I was just doing the math and in PPR kelce was still 6 PPG higher than Howard and engram last year. In comparison, davante was about 7.5 higher than Boyd , which is basically wr1 to wr17-19. How is this advantage not taken to account more seriously? You can do fine with a bunch of wr2s on your team.

I'm trying to gauge what kelce is worth in WR terms and all I can see is he's worth nothing less than top 5 wr.

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I take Kelce every year. Had to grab him in the second this year with 11th pick in a 12 teamer. I've been in the championship the past three years riding him (And Mahomes late last year didn't hurt ha)

For those of you struggling with the idea, here is my rationale:

On 8/22/2019 at 1:56 PM, KennyWoo said:

I don't necessarily expect a return to last season's levels but even 90-1100-6 TD would be good for 236 points in PPR, which is low-end WR1 numbers out of a TE.  

 

Even if Kelce regresses, he's still likely putting up WR1 or high end WR2 numbers. You have a huge drop-off in stability and scoring at the TE position so every week you are playing at an advantage there.

But the kicker is, you can think of your WR3 spot as your TE spot instead. It's much easier to find a WR3 to put up numbers for you than a TE. A lot of WR3 are going to outscore probably 90% of TEs in the league. They are easier to replace and there is more selection. Your 3rd or 4th WR on your bench probably is going to put up more points than anyone outside the top 5 TEs. 

I think of drafting Kelce as my WR2 (this year went Julio/Kelce at 11/14, yeah I know that was lucky to have JJ drop like that), with the added bonus of being able to put a WR in my TE spot (not literally but you get what I'm saying).

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On 8/25/2019 at 7:47 AM, CraftyRighty said:

Picking 11th in a 12 man PPR, it is so hard to take Kelce at pick 14. You guys convinced me, I am taking a TE higher than I ever have in 9 years!!!

I never have either but I took the plunge this morning. Had pick 12 and took Julio and Kelce back to back. I am happy with thw decision.

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5 minutes ago, BLINDSIDERS said:

I never have either but I took the plunge this morning. Had pick 12 and took Julio and Kelce back to back. I am happy with thw decision.

 

In PPR this is about as safe a start as you can have.  Jones and Kelce (along with Michael Thomas) are guys with super high floors for risk averse drafters.

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