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Chris Sale 2019 Outlook


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1 hour ago, exaulz said:

I’m just going to assume he’s done for the season.

I think he's done as well, but are you so confident that you'd cut him in a redraft? I think owners are stuck holding the anchor until there's more clarity on the situation. They're 6.5 back of the second wild card spot and probably dead for this season, but not so obviously dead they can just pack it up for the year.

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6 minutes ago, AnonymousRob said:

I think he's done as well, but are you so confident that you'd cut him in a redraft? I think owners are stuck holding the anchor until there's more clarity on the situation. They're 6.5 back of the second wild card spot and probably dead for this season, but not so obviously dead they can just pack it up for the year.

Shut down for 6 weeks then he'll be reevaluated. Okay, it's drop city for redrafts.

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1 hour ago, brockpapersizer said:

 

 

Wonder  when he pitches again, but great for dynasty/keeper value. As long as he doesn't injure himself further, should be at least good to go in 2020, with some chance he pitches this season.

 

how confident are you he wont need it in the next 2 years?

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I'm not a doctor, but I feel like when teams do this they're only delaying the inevitability of TJ surgery.  Maybe he comes back full bore next spring as if nothing happened, but if he ends up needing TJ surgery early next season I feel this decision will have been an extreme waste of rehabilitation time.  I'm gonna hope for the best.

 

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19 minutes ago, cizastro said:

I'm not a doctor, but I feel like when teams do this they're only delaying the inevitability of TJ surgery.  Maybe he comes back full bore next spring as if nothing happened, but if he ends up needing TJ surgery early next season I feel this decision will have been an extreme waste of rehabilitation time.  I'm gonna hope for the best.

 

Honestly, this is taking things to the extreme.  What we do know, he has elbow inflammation.  There is absolutely no mention that there is UCL damage or that he is now some kind of candidate for TJS.  Could he? Yes, obviously, but that is not really based on any medical opinion or diagnosis right now.  Dr. Andrews did not recommend surgery or even list something else as an alternative before deciding if it was needed.  The report says he has elbow inflammation and he received a platelet-rich plasma injection.  He will refrain from throwing for 6 weeks.  That's all that can be taken from this.

Edited by BigPapi44
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Red Sox idiotic..I suspected this would happen.  YOU DON'T LET YOUR A+ STARTERS PITCH AS RELIEVERS IN THE PLAYOFFS.

I am actually surprised he made it to Aug 19.

They should have kid gloved him all season and gave him a strict 75-80 pitch count limit.  Now I fear it is too late.  In a dynasty league I'd try to sell him for pennies on the dollar.  

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3 hours ago, cizastro said:

I'm not a doctor, but I feel like when teams do this they're only delaying the inevitability of TJ surgery.  Maybe he comes back full bore next spring as if nothing happened, but if he ends up needing TJ surgery early next season I feel this decision will have been an extreme waste of rehabilitation time.  I'm gonna hope for the best.

 

No offense but if Doc Andrews says he doesn't need TJ surgery I'll take his opinion over any other person out there in the universe.  If he can find any reason to cut them open, ol' Doc Andrews will happily oblige. 

11 minutes ago, KingJoffrey said:

Red Sox idiotic..I suspected this would happen.  YOU DON'T LET YOUR A+ STARTERS PITCH AS RELIEVERS IN THE PLAYOFFS.

I am actually surprised he made it to Aug 19.

They should have kid gloved him all season and gave him a strict 75-80 pitch count limit.  Now I fear it is too late.  In a dynasty league I'd try to sell him for pennies on the dollar.  

Pitching in relief during the playoffs has nothing to do with anything. 

Wikipedia:

Quote

Sale made two appearances, including one start, in the American League Division Series, allowing two earned runs in 6 1⁄3 innings. In the American League Championship Series, he made one appearance, a start, allowing two earned runs in four innings. On October 23, Sale started Game 1 of the World Series for the Red Sox at home at Fenway Park. He pitched four-plus innings, giving up three runs on five hits and striking out seven in a no decision. The Red Sox went on to win the game, 8–4. During Game 4, with the Red Sox trailing by four runs, Sale gained notoriety for shouting at his teammates in the dugout, imploring them to generate more offense (the team had only one hit through the first six innings). The Red Sox went on to win, 9–6, taking a three games to one lead in the series.  In Game 5, Sale became a World Series champion for the first time, closing out the final inning, including a series-ending strikeout of Manny Machado.  Overall, in 15 1⁄3 postseason innings he allowed seven earned runs while striking out 24.

So he made exactly 2 appearances total in the playoffs out of the bullpen.  The last one lasted 1 inning.  I don't know how long his relief appearance was in the ALDS but it couldn't have been lone as well.  So how did that do anything to his arm?  Especially since starters on all teams always do that on the "all hands on deck" mode in the playoffs.

And pitch counts are something some people believe in and some people don't in baseball.  Nothing has ever been proven one way or the other because all pitchers are unique individuals and function differently.  Differently mentally and physically.  And there are tons of other factors to figure into this "count" stuff as well.  Like stress pitches vs non-stress.  Fastballs vs curves vs change-ups vs whatever etc.  Pitch counts aren't in the least scientific. They are just count on your fingers stuff that don't tell you too much at all if anything really.

And I'd LOVE to pay pennies for Chris Sale in any league.

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On 8/17/2019 at 7:22 PM, B&F said:

 

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I really thought Sale was the one pitcher who was going to give father time at least a run for his money and pitch at a high level into his thirties.

 

The one?

Most of the top pitchers this year are in their thirties.

Verlander, Scherzer, Morton, Ryu, Greinke, Kershaw, Strasburg, etc.

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Seriously, can anyone point to an article or any information post-visit with Andrews that Sale has UCL damage and that TJS is a likely scenario?  Unless you can, the speculation is baseless.  If you are an owner in a dynasty/keeper league and want to sell him for pennies on the dollar, based on all the chicken littles spinning this story, then go nuts.

Edited by BigPapi44
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Well, the current prognosis isn’t TJS. But calling such speculation “baseless” isn’t correct either, since there is actually plenty of basis. 

I mean the time to sell him for any value would be -before- TJS is announced. Not after. 

Any trade is based on speculation. But let’s face it. Sale has pitched like crap by his standard all season. It’s clear there’s been something seriously wrong with him. Doctors have also been known to change their diagnoses all the time. That’s one reason everyone seeks second/third opinions. 

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4 hours ago, BigPapi44 said:

Seriously, can anyone point to an article or any information post-visit with Andrews that Sale has UCL damage and that TJS is a likely scenario?  Unless you can, the speculation is baseless.  If you are an owner in a dynasty/keeper league and want to sell him for pennies on the dollar, based on all the chicken littles spinning this story, then go nuts.

 

Isn't trading someone early to get what you think is value based completely on assumption though? You can't sell him or get any value if you wait until TJS is announced which is what you seem to be suggesting.

 

You make the trade assuming you're making the move early but maximizing your value. Personally I have Sale and will probably hang onto him, but to dismiss the reasoning to get some value while you can makes no sense. Hell, I did the same thing with Lincecum years ago. Traded him a year early and got serious value because I read the tea leaves. Had I gone the direction you seem to advocate, I wouldn't gotten anything and would've watched him crumble while on my roster.

 

 

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Many of the most impassioned debates here hinge on some pretty narrow points of disagreement.  Which is fine, to some extent -- precision is important in this game, and we'll take any edge we can get.  At the same time, I don't think anyone here is saying "you should sell Sale for pennies on the dollar" in dynasty leagues based on some uninformed speculation on the RW forums.

Without defining what fraction is meant by "pennies on the dollar", one can assume it's less than half, so let's take it to mean a quarter (at most) of his pre-2019 dynasty value just for the sake of argument.  Pitchers tend to be hugely discounted in 1st year dynasty drafts relative to redraft/keeper, and many of the higher-end dynasty arms were on the older side heading into this season, so let's be conservative and say Sale was "actually" worth $25 heading into 2019.  A quarter of that value would be roughly a $7 player, which lands somewhere in the 160-180 range overall.  The arms in that range dynasty-wise using Tristan Cockroft's mid-season dynasty rankings are guys like Matt Boyd, Jesus Luzardo, Jon Gray, Yu Darvish, Alex Reyes, Chris Archer, and Folty. 

Is anyone ready to move on from Sale in keep forever dynasty leagues for any of those names?  I'm certainly not.  Maybe you're in a position where you're rebuilding and a Luzardo or Reyes is more likely to be a productive part of your next contending team, or maybe you're in a super deep 30 team league where there's never any pitching at all on the wire, but aside from those circumstances, I want the player with the better outlook in the next 3-5 years, and I think that's Sale based on what we know right now.

If we find out the rehab isn't going well in the offseason I reserve the right to change my mind, but the range of outcomes is so wide right now, and the expected returns of those other arms so middling, that I'll roll the dice and hope for the best from the more proven player.

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