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2 hours ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

Isn't trading someone early to get what you think is value based completely on assumption though? You can't sell him or get any value if you wait until TJS is announced which is what you seem to be suggesting.

 

You make the trade assuming you're making the move early but maximizing your value. Personally I have Sale and will probably hang onto him, but to dismiss the reasoning to get some value while you can makes no sense. Hell, I did the same thing with Lincecum years ago. Traded him a year early and got serious value because I read the tea leaves. Had I gone the direction you seem to advocate, I wouldn't gotten anything and would've watched him crumble while on my roster.

 

 

 

1 hour ago, tonycpsu said:

Many of the most impassioned debates here hinge on some pretty narrow points of disagreement.  Which is fine, to some extent -- precision is important in this game, and we'll take any edge we can get.  At the same time, I don't think anyone here is saying "you should sell Sale for pennies on the dollar" in dynasty leagues based on some uninformed speculation on the RW forums.

Without defining what fraction is meant by "pennies on the dollar", one can assume it's less than half, so let's take it to mean a quarter (at most) of his pre-2019 dynasty value just for the sake of argument.  Pitchers tend to be hugely discounted in 1st year dynasty drafts relative to redraft/keeper, and many of the higher-end dynasty arms were on the older side heading into this season, so let's be conservative and say Sale was "actually" worth $25 heading into 2019.  A quarter of that value would be roughly a $7 player, which lands somewhere in the 160-180 range overall.  The arms in that range dynasty-wise using Tristan Cockroft's mid-season dynasty rankings are guys like Matt Boyd, Jesus Luzardo, Jon Gray, Yu Darvish, Alex Reyes, Chris Archer, and Folty. 

Is anyone ready to move on from Sale in keep forever dynasty leagues for any of those names?  I'm certainly not.  Maybe you're in a position where you're rebuilding and a Luzardo or Reyes is more likely to be a productive part of your next contending team, or maybe you're in a super deep 30 team league where there's never any pitching at all on the wire, but aside from those circumstances, I want the player with the better outlook in the next 3-5 years, and I think that's Sale based on what we know right now.

If we find out the rehab isn't going well in the offseason I reserve the right to change my mind, but the range of outcomes is so wide right now, and the expected returns of those other arms so middling, that I'll roll the dice and hope for the best from the more proven player.

To me that's the most logical.  From my end, some above are speculating that TJS is a foregone conclusion.  Right now, there is nothing to base that on until something is shared that he has UCL damage.  He was diagnosed with elbow inflammation and told to rest.  Could this be an issue for him moving forward, sure it can but that does not mean Sale is going under the knife.  Could it also be something that with rest goes away, I don't see why not based on the present diagnosis. For sure it depends on the league, but for me I was looking at it in terms of keeper/dynasty leagues.  Given that he's done for the year, I highly doubt anyone is giving top prospects, but ya, if you think Chris Archer or Alex Reyes, etc., is a good return and want to sell him for that, your choice, to me that really is pennies on the dollar.  Personally, I would think it pointless to move him until he can rebuild his value. 

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Last season 2 trips to the DL, seemed to be shut down in Spring training, loss of velo this early reg season, and now this. In a keeper league depending on off season news he becomes an easy decision not to keep. Dynasty he is a hold no matter what the news

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4 hours ago, tonycpsu said:

Many of the most impassioned debates here hinge on some pretty narrow points of disagreement.  Which is fine, to some extent -- precision is important in this game, and we'll take any edge we can get.  At the same time, I don't think anyone here is saying "you should sell Sale for pennies on the dollar" in dynasty leagues based on some uninformed speculation on the RW forums.

Without defining what fraction is meant by "pennies on the dollar", one can assume it's less than half, so let's take it to mean a quarter (at most) of his pre-2019 dynasty value just for the sake of argument.  Pitchers tend to be hugely discounted in 1st year dynasty drafts relative to redraft/keeper, and many of the higher-end dynasty arms were on the older side heading into this season, so let's be conservative and say Sale was "actually" worth $25 heading into 2019.  A quarter of that value would be roughly a $7 player, which lands somewhere in the 160-180 range overall.  The arms in that range dynasty-wise using Tristan Cockroft's mid-season dynasty rankings are guys like Matt Boyd, Jesus Luzardo, Jon Gray, Yu Darvish, Alex Reyes, Chris Archer, and Folty. 

Is anyone ready to move on from Sale in keep forever dynasty leagues for any of those names?  I'm certainly not.  Maybe you're in a position where you're rebuilding and a Luzardo or Reyes is more likely to be a productive part of your next contending team, or maybe you're in a super deep 30 team league where there's never any pitching at all on the wire, but aside from those circumstances, I want the player with the better outlook in the next 3-5 years, and I think that's Sale based on what we know right now.

If we find out the rehab isn't going well in the offseason I reserve the right to change my mind, but the range of outcomes is so wide right now, and the expected returns of those other arms so middling, that I'll roll the dice and hope for the best from the more proven player.

 

Good points. Personally, I have Sale in a salary dynasty league and he is one of my more expensive players on my 1st place team. Even with that, I have zero intention in moving him while his value is at its lowest it’s been (which is now). Could something happen and this ends up being the beginning of the end and his value decreases further? Possibly, but we don’t know that just yet so I feel like I have the luxury of waiting it out.

Now if the rest of my team were in a different position, and I was more in a rebuilding type phase, I would put feelers out there now to see what I could get for him but I wouldn’t “give him away.”

So really, I see both sides and I think which direction anyone goes who has Sale depends on the rest of their roster.

Call me naive but I’m optimistic that he rounds back into form next year.

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