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5 hours ago, FantasyGeek2018 said:

Next start he will go 7 IP, 1 ER, 11 ks, and get the win.

He wont throwing 91-92mph heaters. His stuff didn't look there and was dropping 1mph per inning.

I think we have to realise he won't likely be throwing 95mph again.

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Roto? Best RP avaliable. H2H? Fantasy football. 

[Lengthy derail removed. @Chris O'Leary, we've reached out to you in the past about your violation of the RW forums policy on self promotion. We can't have you turning threads into referenda on your t

Chris O'Leary's predictions just take a decade or so to marinate...

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I don't own Sale but I do watch all of his starts. Last night was a bit concerning with the velocity, yes, but you also need to factor in that he only pitched 9 innings in ST. He's still building up strength, I think his next start will be a bit more telling though.

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If the Red Sox were just willing to invest in Sale with a hefty extension, why are fantasy owners so worried after one bad start?  Are we smarter than the Red Sox brass?  

That's not to say he won't get hurt- it's a risk for any pitcher.  But there is a "writing on the wall" narrative in fantasyland that the Red Sox apparently are ignorant of.

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I own a share of Cole and I'd be lying if I said I wasn't concerned.  The glass half full view is that he only pitched 9 innings this spring, and the Sox just gave him $150 million which was contingent on passing a physical.  I'd venture to guess they didn't find anything wrong. 

Any gamblers out there considering this a buying opportunity for Sale?

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I doubt there's any buying opportunity after one start since anyone who has Sale spent a high pick on him. I am surprised the velo drops haven't raised more eyebrows in general since the sirens usually sound when that happens. I'm with @absmoke. If he bombs out next start then you may see some panicking.

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2 minutes ago, TribeFoo said:

I doubt there's any buying opportunity after one start since anyone who has Sale spent a high pick on him. I am surprised the velo drops haven't raised more eyebrows in general since the sirens usually sound when that happens. I'm with @absmoke. If he bombs out next start then you may see some panicking.

 

I keep asking myself "wouldn't the Red Sox be aware/ evaluate any concerning velo drops before extending just last week"? 

 

There was already a narrative out there in fantasy that Sale is risky and this start feeds into that narrative.  But unless this is a new injury last night, that narrative insinuates that the Red Sox didn't do their due diligence before extending.  I find it hard to believe they would extend him if there were any lingering concerns.  A better explanation is that he had a bad start, possibly related to shortened ST.  If this was a ST start we wouldn't bat an eye.  If one believes in the ability of the Red Sox brass to evaluate their own assets, this is a buying opportunity for fantasy owners.  

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Just now, bluefrogguy said:

 

I keep asking myself "wouldn't the Red Sox be aware/ evaluate any concerning velo drops before extending just last week"? 

 

There was already a narrative out there in fantasy that Sale is risky and this start feeds into that narrative.  But unless this is a new injury last night, that narrative insinuates that the Red Sox didn't do their due diligence before extending.  I find it hard to believe they would extend him if there were any lingering concerns.  A better explanation is that he had a bad start, possibly related to shortened ST.  If this was a ST start we wouldn't bat an eye.  If one believes in the ability of the Red Sox brass to evaluate their own assets, this is a buying opportunity for fantasy owners.  

 

The odds are that last night's start was a hiccup and he'll rebound nicely next start and beyond. I agree that the Red Sox must have done their due diligence before having him sign the dotted line. None of us are used to seeing that kind of line from Sale, so the wide array of opinions doesn't surprise me. It'd have to be a pretty careless owner to sell him right now, but I'm sure they're out there. Happy hunting to those who play in such leagues...haha

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1 hour ago, TribeFoo said:

 

The odds are that last night's start was a hiccup and he'll rebound nicely next start and beyond. I agree that the Red Sox must have done their due diligence before having him sign the dotted line. None of us are used to seeing that kind of line from Sale, so the wide array of opinions doesn't surprise me. It'd have to be a pretty careless owner to sell him right now, but I'm sure they're out there. Happy hunting to those who play in such leagues...haha

 

Well, I am a little concerned but there's nothing any shrewd manager could do at this point. I don't like it that his struggles correspond to diminished velocity which was an issue at the end of last season.

I have a monogamous relationship with fantasy baseball and I only do one league every year. The last time I drafted this guy was back in 2015 and I recall how awful he was in the month of April which he followed with a world-beating stretch of utter domination in May & June. Unfortunately, the second-half was just meh. The great stretch was bookended with a crappy start and finish.  

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Fun stat from the Sunday Boston Globe concerning Sale’s contract. 

Chris Sale new five-year $145 million which starts in 2020, includes $10 million In deferred payments for each season paid out 15 years later... so from 2035-39, Sale will receive $10 million a year due on June 30. He will be 46 when the payments start. 

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On 3/29/2019 at 1:16 AM, Knox said:

Ok so this irritates me. This blurb is from rotoworld, at the very end it says " but the Red Sox may consider pushing him back a day after Thursday’s debacle."

Where does this info come from? Who indicated he's potentially being pushed back? Has this been determined, or mentioned anywhere among the Red Sox brass?

I haven't heard anything like that but it wouldn't be out of the realm of possibility either since if he skips his start in Arizona and starts in the next game instead he would then pitch on Opening Day at Fenway where the banner gets raised, the rings get handed out and a horde of Patriots rush out from behind the humongous flag covering the Green Monster.  It's kind of an honor to be on the mound for that game and he really pitches well at Fenway besides.  So why not.

 

On 3/29/2019 at 9:01 AM, swfcdan said:

He wont throwing 91-92mph heaters. His stuff didn't look there and was dropping 1mph per inning.

I think we have to realise he won't likely be throwing 95mph again.

Yes he will.  His velocity was slow out of the gate last year.  And up and down until about mid-June.  It isn't anything new.  What is new is that he only had 9 innings in Spring Training which means his slow ramp-up is now hindered with a lack of control born of less fine tuning in ST.

The same thing happened to Eovaldi who had 7 innings in ST and E-Rod who had all of 15 innings.  In an effort not to overextend arms that went all the way through October and pitched extra innings out of the bullpen in the playoffs besides; they went too far and these guys are still raw in ST mode right now.  The control isn't there for any of them as yet.  Can't wait for Price who had only one real start and on the last day of ST besides with his 6.2 innings of ST to go in Oakland.  Good thing it is a good sized park.

 

On 3/29/2019 at 1:05 PM, bluefrogguy said:

There was already a narrative out there in fantasy that Sale is risky and this start feeds into that narrative.  But unless this is a new injury last night, that narrative insinuates that the Red Sox didn't do their due diligence before extending.  I find it hard to believe they would extend him if there were any lingering concerns.  A better explanation is that he had a bad start, possibly related to shortened ST.  If this was a ST start we wouldn't bat an eye.  If one believes in the ability of the Red Sox brass to evaluate their own assets, this is a buying opportunity for fantasy owners.  

And that "narrative" with the so-called scary inverted W (which I guess makes it a right side up M) has goes on for year after year after year even though an "danger" from it was debunked long ago.  So yeah smart managers should be on the prowl for gullible owners looking to trade Sale now.

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Hilarious 😂 at all the people worried and trading

 

 This is basically extended spring training for Sale. Sox underestimated their opponent and maybe Sale did as well but this is a buying opportunity that will win your league!

 

Get Sale on sale!!

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2 hours ago, AnonymousRob said:

Fwiw Nick Pollock from pitcherlist suggested selling after his first game if you could get a top 20 hitter.

After his second game, Nick mentioned he was backing off of the stance that Sale was injured and now thinking he is just intentionally under-exerting to preserve himself for the full season.

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Still buying he is fine. Chris Sale knows he is one of the best and it just takes him several starts and some adrenaline to get going. For those selling at 75 cents on the dollar, you lose.

 

Would not surprise me if he is intentionally trying to breeze through his first few starts because on paper they are "easy". Well they were not easy so ramp it up bro!

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35 minutes ago, Monkeyman74 said:

Still buying he is fine. Chris Sale knows he is one of the best and it just takes him several starts and some adrenaline to get going. For those selling at 75 cents on the dollar, you lose.

Would not surprise me if he is intentionally trying to breeze through his first few starts because on paper they are "easy". Well they were not easy so ramp it up bro!

No he comes out with full adrenaline every game.  He is a real bulldog on the mound and is jacked for every start.  He doesn't have a "mellow" setting in his make-up.

His velocity is down probably because he only pitched 9 innings total in spring training.  I say "probably" because I fell asleep before the post-game press conference since it was happening going on something like 2 am back east here.

One thing I did notice last night was he is standing on the mound kind of sideways in the same position he did when his velocity was down at the start of last year.  Then they changed his stance back to his natural one and his velocity took a jump back to normal in June.  I don't know why he went back to that old experimental stance that didn't work for him last year except he tried it early last year to save some stress on his arm early on so it might be part of his ramping up program.  But if it is he probably isn't going to give that bit away in a post-game interviews.

The good news was he pitched his way through 6 innings only giving up that 1 homer and I think it was 3 hits in total so he made what he had work even if it made him a pitch to contact hurler for this game.  The bad news is no one knows why his velocity is down.  The modified stance he is trying again?  The lack of enough innings in spring training?  A sudden injury?  Dead arm?  Part of the "big plan" to save the arm for the whole season?  Just one of those nights he couldn't get loose?  But hey everyone loves a good mystery, right?  Well unless you own him.

Anyway I hope someone panics in the leagues I don't own him in so I can add him in those leagues.

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I have zero shares of him so not trying to make this a bench coach question, just curious the range of how people are evaluating the situation. Where does he rank as far as pitchers right now? What's the lowest tier of pitcher you'd trade him for right now?

I think it's pretty clear, even even if you're still very bullish in him this season almost everyone would take the top guys like DeGrom/Cole/Verlander/Bauer etc over him. But how far does he drop down the list for you thougg? Nola/Snell tier? Syndergaard/Carrasco? Corbin/Paxton/Clevinger? Greinke/Strasburg/Kershaw? Flaherty/Taillon/Berrios? Even lower?

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His first start was ugh

Second start was fine. 

I have to believe he will be fine. 

21 minutes ago, Baur10 said:

I have zero shares of him so not trying to make this a bench coach question, just curious the range of how people are evaluating the situation. Where does he rank as far as pitchers right now? What's the lowest tier of pitcher you'd trade him for right now?

I think it's pretty clear, even even if you're still very bullish in him this season almost everyone would take the top guys like DeGrom/Cole/Verlander/Bauer etc over him. But how far does he drop down the list for you thougg? Nola/Snell tier? Syndergaard/Carrasco? Corbin/Paxton/Clevinger? Greinke/Strasburg/Kershaw? Flaherty/Taillon/Berrios? Even lower?

So your thinking just after two starts Chris Sale has dropped

I say even if we draft today, Chris still would be a early/late first early second round pick. 

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Just now, shakestreet said:

His first start was ugh

Second start was fine. 

I have to believe he will be fine. 

So your thinking just after two starts Chris Sale has dropped

I say even if we draft today, Chris still would be a early/late first early second round pick. 

 

Me personally?  I think he drops a bit but not much.  More of a bottom of the second.  The velocity worries me a bit but I agree he's probably fine.  If I was drafting today I'd probably take Degrom/Verlander over him.  Bauer/Cole/Kluber would be a debate.  But that's about it.

Just curious to see the range of opinions really. I'm sure there are a few panicking and a few like yourself who haven't changed their evaluation at all.

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It's BS Sox managing him knowing they will win 100 games this year and want him at his best when it counts.

 

They look at the schedule and says vs OAK, TB.......take it easy.

 

So the Sox thinking is with the limited spring and these first 2 games, they just saved some wear and tear.

 

The next slated starts for Sale are cake match ups. Will it be the same? Time will tell but these are games in which Sale should have a line of 7-8 IP, 10+ K's and about a 85% chance of a win

 

Based on this April schedule I am buying the heck out of him wherever I can now!

 

Arizona

Baltimore

Tampa

Detroit

Oakland

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1 hour ago, Baur10 said:

I have zero shares of him so not trying to make this a bench coach question, just curious the range of how people are evaluating the situation. Where does he rank as far as pitchers right now? What's the lowest tier of pitcher you'd trade him for right now?

I think it's pretty clear, even even if you're still very bullish in him this season almost everyone would take the top guys like DeGrom/Cole/Verlander/Bauer etc over him. But how far does he drop down the list for you thougg? Nola/Snell tier? Syndergaard/Carrasco? Corbin/Paxton/Clevinger? Greinke/Strasburg/Kershaw? Flaherty/Taillon/Berrios? Even lower?

 

I traded him after week 1 for Verlander. I'd also of moved him for Snell and possibly Nola. I'd hold over the rest. 

Keep in mind I wasnt big on him to begin with im in 9 leagues and I took him in one because he fell to the mid 2nd. 

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5 hours ago, BMcP said:

After his second game, Nick mentioned he was backing off of the stance that Sale was injured and now thinking he is just intentionally under-exerting to preserve himself for the full season.

I can buy that. And it makes sense from a real baseball perspective. But assuming that's true, I have to think it's going to impact his strikeouts - which directly impacts his fantasy value. A huge part of his appeal are the strikeouts. Without those he's not as appealing. Still can help and be an asset, but definitely not as valuable as in years prior.

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