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DeAndre Hopkins 2019 Outlook


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1 hour ago, youngrice said:

That would be interesting if true. Considering most passes he doesn't get much separation like other top WR's.  He used to win on the 70/30 balls consistently.

Some will argue I'm speaking crazy, but there is proof he played last playoff game with the muscle'literally torn off the bone', his words, I'm guessing it's still affecting

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2840156-deandre-hopkins-played-through-serious-shoulder-injury-in-texans-playoff-loss

i would sell for what u can

Edited by 1972Miamidolphins
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One of the most elite WRs in the game has a huge game and people come into this thread like:

huh?

Not really football related but i read Hopkins finds his blind mom in the endzone every touchdown and gives her the ball. She sits with her daughter who gives her the play by play.   http://

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18 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

Some will argue I'm speaking crazy, but there is proof he played last playoff game with the muscle'literally torn off the bone', his words, I'm guessing it's still affecting

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2840156-deandre-hopkins-played-through-serious-shoulder-injury-in-texans-playoff-loss

i would sell for what u can

12 team league and no idiots.  But will see what I can do.  Thanks

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11 minutes ago, Pooskay said:

If Fuller wasn't so butter fingered, he'd be the WR to own in HOU.

I think our only hope for Hopkins is that they start doubling fuller. He was burning them all game today just couldn’t catch the ball.

Edited by StevenSC400
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This is honestly one of the most mind boggling busts since i have started playing fantasy. Granted, that's not saying he will finish as a bust this season but up to this point at least. RBs can bust for whatever reason no matter how good they are but a first round WR is almost always guaranteed to produce outside of a few factors such as injury, injury to QB, and etc.

However, Hopkins has not been presented by any of those and he was going into the top 5 at times. His QB is fine, he seems fine, and there's nothing out of the ordinary. Yet he is a low end WR2 as of now. His situation is even arguably better than last year so this make absolutely no sense.

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18 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This is honestly one of the most mind boggling busts since i have started playing fantasy. Granted, that's not saying he will finish as a bust this season but up to this point at least. RBs can bust for whatever reason no matter how good they are but a first round WR is almost always guaranteed to produce outside of a few factors such as injury, injury to QB, and etc.

However, Hopkins has not been presented by any of those and he was going into the top 5 at times. His QB is fine, he seems fine, and there's nothing out of the ordinary. Yet he is a low end WR2 as of now. His situation is even arguably better than last year so this make absolutely no sense.

That is the rule of fantasy, expect the unexpected. It is a parallel universe where facts and predictions are distorted. Hopkins is apparently healthy and has a QB that can produce monster stats l, but Hopkins has produced WR2 level numbers since week 2. The ceiling is capped, aside from an inevitable blowup game or two. 

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All the deep routes are going to Fuller.  It looks like they’re content having nuk as a dink and dunk possession receiver.  He’s been in the league for 7 years now so maybe his legs are starting to decline or even shot.  10 yards a catch is even worse than the dismal 2016 season.  That means he can’t separate at all or get down field.  You would think his skill and route running ability would carry him a decent ppr monster but that’s not even happening.  Not enough 10-15 yard chunks, it’s mostly 8 and under.  

Football is a young man’s game.  He’s been in the league for a while now and this was a blind spot that nobody saw coming. 

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3 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

All the deep routes are going to Fuller.  It looks like they’re content having nuk as a dink and dunk possession receiver.  He’s been in the league for 7 years now so maybe his legs are starting to decline or even shot.  10 yards a catch is even worse than the dismal 2016 season.  That means he can’t separate at all or get down field.  You would think his skill and route running ability would carry him a decent ppr monster but that’s not even happening.  Not enough 10-15 yard chunks, it’s mostly 8 and under.  

Football is a young man’s game.  He’s been in the league for a while now and this was a blind spot that nobody saw coming. 

That's what the Bucs are doing except the guy ithat is more dink and dunk is having one of the best starts in NFL history. 

No his age has nothing to do with it. For a WR, he is exactly in his prime right now. It's not a RB or anything like that where you can start to make a claim that he is starting to decline. WRs don't start to show decline into their 30s most of the time and he is still far away from that point.

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46 minutes ago, Gohawks said:

This is honestly one of the most mind boggling busts since i have started playing fantasy. Granted, that's not saying he will finish as a bust this season but up to this point at least. RBs can bust for whatever reason no matter how good they are but a first round WR is almost always guaranteed to produce outside of a few factors such as injury, injury to QB, and etc.

However, Hopkins has not been presented by any of those and he was going into the top 5 at times. His QB is fine, he seems fine, and there's nothing out of the ordinary. Yet he is a low end WR2 as of now. His situation is even arguably better than last year so this make absolutely no sense.

I think 1972MiamiDolphins may have solved the mystery.

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22 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

All the deep routes are going to Fuller.  It looks like they’re content having nuk as a dink and dunk possession receiver.  

I was just looking at some NextGen stats and i'm kind of seeing this in his weekly route charts. Maybe someone can dig a little bit deeper into this, but this is what I have from my preliminary assessment:

Since week 1, Hopkins is average approximately 3 routes per game over 10+ yards. In week 1, he had approximately 8 routes of 10+ yards that he ran. In weeks 13-17 in 2018, he averaged about 7 routes per game over 10+ yards.

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/deandre-hopkins/HOP161500/season

Look at Fuller's route chart the last two weeks:

https://nextgenstats.nfl.com/charts/player/will-fuller/FUL503598/season

The only other thing that I can see is that they are not moving him all over the field like they did last year. When they move him on the left, right and slot, he seems to blow-up.

Edited by nonstopfan
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I haven’t watched every single game but from what I’ve seen he has nothing after the catch.  He’s also not really getting any separation at all. It’s like his legs are gone. Really starting to remind me of Crabtree in his last couple years. Still had hands but just can’t go no where.

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You gotta start him, just based on his target volume alone.  Only 4 players in the league have had more targets than Deandre.  It's gonna be hard to trade him right now because everyone's going to point to his lack of production and arguing "hey, he gets a ton of targets" will probably fall flat.  Targets don't get you points.

This guy is the definition of someone you have to ride out the bad games with.  Super stud, good QB, high volume and not producing...have to stick with him.

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4 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

You gotta start him, just based on his target volume alone.  Only 4 players in the league have had more targets than Deandre.  It's gonna be hard to trade him right now because everyone's going to point to his lack of production and arguing "hey, he gets a ton of targets" will probably fall flat.  Targets don't get you points.

This guy is the definition of someone you have to ride out the bad games with.  Super stud, good QB, high volume and not producing...have to stick with him.

So, if someone offered you Boyd+AJG you'd pass?

Edited by FitzMagic
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7 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

So, if someone offered you Boyd+AJG you'd pass?

 

Well...when I say he's hard to trade, that was a general comment as I don't think you'd get what he's worth.  If someone offered me CMC and Mahomes for Hopkins, pretty sure I'd do it.

In this particular case, it's close.  AJ Green is likely still a WR1 talent and Cin has a really soft 2nd half schedule.  Outside of NE in week 15, there's nothing to fear and some juicy ones (Mia, Oak, Jets).  Plus it sounds like AJ is coming back soon.  Also, Houston's schedule isn't great (NE, Den, Tenn twice, etc.)

I'd have to think about that.  Hopkins is like the #19 WR right now and you'd be getting back more than a low-mid WR2 in value back in that trade, so it's close to reasonable.

 

Edited by Brownsfan74
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31 minutes ago, FitzMagic said:

So, if someone offered you Boyd+AJG you'd pass?

That’s like trading uncertainty for uncertainty. I would def pass on that because I don’t really gain anything. The bengals look terrible there is no way I want anyone from that team. If You can’t get a productive player or 2 back now then you either ride or sink with the ship.

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1 hour ago, Gohawks said:

That's what the Bucs are doing except the guy ithat is more dink and dunk is having one of the best starts in NFL history. 

No his age has nothing to do with it. For a WR, he is exactly in his prime right now. It's not a RB or anything like that where you can start to make a claim that he is starting to decline. WRs don't start to show decline into their 30s most of the time and he is still far away from that point.

It doesn’t really matter what his age is.  If his physical ability and production has declined then he’s not in his prime.  Godwin can easily separate from defenders because he’s young and explosive.  He gets down the field with ease.  Everything with Hopkins is tight and difficult.  

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6 minutes ago, Rickydragon said:

It doesn’t really matter what his age is.  If his physical ability and production has declined then he’s not in his prime.  Godwin can easily separate from defenders because he’s young and explosive.  He gets down the field with ease.  Everything with Hopkins is tight and difficult.  

Hopkins has never really created a ton of separation from corners. He's made his money from having elite ball skills and an insane catch radius. 

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14 minutes ago, TheFire said:

Hopkins has never really created a ton of separation from corners. He's made his money from having elite ball skills and an insane catch radius. 

 

I dunno about that.  I've seen him make corners look silly with his route running when he's 1-on-1.  He doesn't get separation because he's got to beat 2 defenders.  The reason he is still an elite WR is, as you say, his elite ball skills.  They still throw it to him even when he's mostly covered.

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