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Davante Adams 2019 Outlook


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1 hour ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Anyone who doesn't have Adams in their top two WRs simply wasn't paying attention last year. Period. But that's the easy part. The bigger question is where he and Hopkins fit in amongst the rest of the first round locks. I think there's a good chance I'll end up with him if I'm picking in the 6 or 7 hole. 

He had zero single digit ppr games last season.  I believe he I should be the top wr off the board in ppr leagues.  8 of those games were 19 points plus, Hopkins had one single digit game ppr, aside from that, take your pick

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33 minutes ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

I believe he I should be the top wr off the board in ppr leagues.

What, ahead of Nuk and Julio? MT?

Adams had a great year, but he'd done it once. He's not a top-3 for me when I have safer options.

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2 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Anyone who doesn't have Adams in their top two WRs simply wasn't paying attention last year. Period. 

Sorry pass on "my opinion = fact." Seems to be a lot of that on this site. He's top tier for sure but not necessarily a lock as top 2. 

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37 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

What, ahead of Nuk and Julio? MT?

I have Hopkins ranked higher than Adams, but the gap between them is negligible. Thomas is my WR3 but those top two guys are on a tier of their own in my opinion. But Julio? Seriously? Not even close. 

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31 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

What, ahead of Nuk and Julio? MT?

Adams had a great year, but he'd done it once. He's not a top-3 for me when I have safer options.

 

I'd take Nuk over Adams, but not Julio or Thomas. Just because he's done it one year doesn't mean he won't keep doing in, and if he stays healthy, I see no reason to expect a significant drop in targets. Also, he's scored 35 TDs in the last three years...Thomas has 23 in that span and Julio has hit double-digit TDs once in his career (2012, 10). In fact, Adams has more TDs in the last three years than Jones has in his career since his one double-digit TD season in 2012. And yes, there is more scoring in fantasy than TDs, but it's hard to argue against Adams' consistency last year, too. If you want to lean on the "done it once" thing, then that's up to you. But at some point, every stud WR had done it only once before becoming a legit annual stud. Will Adams be the next? We'll see, but I believe he will be. 

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9 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

But at some point, every stud WR had done it only once before becoming a legit annual stud. Will Adams be the next? We'll see, but I believe he will be. 

Obviously, but there are more top WRs you can use that same logic on (JuJu). That argument makes him top 10, but not necessarily top 3.

The TD argument is stronger, but chasing TDs is a dangerous hobby.

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7 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

Obviously, but there are more top WRs you can use that same logic on (JuJu). That argument makes him top 10, but not necessarily top 3.

The TD argument is stronger, but chasing TDs is a dangerous hobby.

I don’t want to tell you where to rank Adams but do me a favor and take a glance at his gamelog. It’s really one of the most glorious logs in the last few years. His FLOOR in PPR was 16 points! 

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4 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

I don’t want to tell you where to rank Adams but do me a favor and take a glance at his gamelog. It’s really one of the most glorious logs in the last few years. His FLOOR in PPR was 16 points! 

 

 

 

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11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

The TD argument is stronger, but chasing TDs is a dangerous hobby.

TDs of course can't be counted on, but with Adams being the only receiver to post double-digit TDs in each of the last three seasons there's certainly a precedent for this expectation.

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11 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

Obviously, but there are more top WRs you can use that same logic on (JuJu). That argument makes him top 10, but not necessarily top 3.

The TD argument is stronger, but chasing TDs is a dangerous hobby.

 

Chasing TDs can be dangerous, but it's not just TDs with Adams. That's what puts him over the top for me. He had 169 targets last year, and I expect that total to remain in that range, and I expect him (if healthy) to put up another huge season with double-digit TDs. Julio is not consistent...not at all. Not season-to-season, nor game-to-game. Thomas is a guy I love as a Saints fan, but I'll take Adams over him every time. 

And Adams doesn't need an argument to make him top 3...he made himself top 3 last year :). And speaking of JuJu...I'm not saying he will, but I would not be shocked if JuJu jumped into the top three this year with Nuk and Adams. But that's another thread, lol. 

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13 hours ago, 1972Miamidolphins said:

He had zero single digit ppr games last season.  I believe he I should be the top wr off the board in ppr leagues.  8 of those games were 19 points plus, Hopkins had one single digit game ppr, aside from that, take your pick

 

I don't see any single digit games for Hopkins

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25 minutes ago, theSPANKER said:

Not to derail this thread but curious to know, in a full point ppr setting, would you take Adams over someone like Melvin Gordon?   

I’d personally choose Adams but they are generally in the same overall tier so it pretty much comes down to a matter of preference. 

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12 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Who are you? 

bomont. Let me guess, you're SenatorSpaceman.

(?)

 

45 minutes ago, Flyman75 said:

 

Chasing TDs can be dangerous, but it's not just TDs with Adams. 

So far, yeah pretty much it is. He's done the top tier catches and yards once, which was I think was largely Boudewijn's point. Sure there's every chance he'll do it again and I'd be happy to win him, but it is not IMO a lock, nor it is a lock that Hopkins and Adams stand alone in the top tier. If others in my league think this, I'll gladly let him pass by and grab one of the other top tier guys and save the money. 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, bomont said:

So far, yeah pretty much it is. He's done the top tier catches and yards once, which was I think was largely Boudewijn's point. Sure there's every chance he'll do it again and I'd be happy to win him, but it is not IMO a lock, nor it is a lock that Hopkins and Adams stand alone in the top tier. If others in my league think this, I'll gladly let him pass by and grab one of the other top tier guys and save the money. 

 

I know what his point was, which was why I addressed it specifically. And to say "yeah it pretty much is" is simply wrong because of what he did last year. He made himself a top 3 WR last year, so no, it's not just TDs with Adams. To say "it pretty much is" ignores the fact that he ascended to Rodgers no1 option, and remains far-and-away Rodgers no1 option going in to 2019. It's not like he was the no1 because the other no1 got hurt...or that the Packers signed a stud WR...or that they've done anything else to minimize Adams as the top WR in GB. If he's healthy, I believe he approaches or surpasses 169 targets again, and I believe he'll remain Rodgers top option in the RZ. In each of the last four seasons, his targets per game, catches per game, and yards per game have increased...to reach the height that he has reached. And I believe he has officially arrived and, if healthy, stays here.

And who said it's a lock? It's my belief that Hopkins and Adams will be the top 3. Never said it's a lock because literally nothing is a lock in football/fantasy football...other than there are no locks. 

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Also have to remember prior to last year, minus the 2015 season, Jordy Nelson was Aaron Rodger's favorite target. Unless the coaching staff affects what's going on, I don't see any reason for Adam's numbers to drop. Granted I think some of their Year 2 receivers develop into more reliable targets, but Adams is still going to be target #1. 

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He was a treat to own last year and still a top 3 (top 2) guy in my eyes. People discount his talent saying that he strictly benefits from catching from Rodgers, but he posts elite separation numbers and appears to be great at pulling down contested passes. Seriously, he makes corners look silly with some of his routes (making X Rhodes pull up with that hammy comes to mind). 

All of that said, admittedly a few things scare me:

- New coaching staff that may want to employ a more run heavy approach

- Return of Allison + growth of the 2nd year guys (MVS, ESB, Kumerow) may increase the competition for targets

- Better defense that will likely take them out of the constant catch-up mode they were in last year (The additions of Zardarius/Preston Smith, Rashaan Gary, Darnell Savage + Year 2 for their promising young corners in Alexander and Jackson)

 

The one thing that quells all of those concerns for me: A healthy Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder is bound to throw for more yards and TD's this year.

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8 hours ago, Flyman75 said:

I know what his point was, which was why I addressed it specifically. And to say "yeah it pretty much is" is simply wrong because of what he did last year.

No it isn't; you missed the point. He was the complete package of TDs/yards/catches once. Doing it for one year is just that. It doesn't necessarily equate to his whole career or what he's all about. Or that he's going to produce at those levels again this year. The point was that so far, his career on the whole as a top producer is pretty much about TDs. I get that you're saying "he's arrived, he's the total package now" and I wouldn't be at all surprised. He's not so highly ranked for no reason. 

 

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And who said it's a lock? It's my belief that Hopkins and Adams will be the top 3. Never said it's a lock 

Not saying you did. But my impression from some here is otherwise so just my 2 cents. 

 

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4 minutes ago, bomont said:

No it isn't; you missed the point. He was the complete package of TDs/yards/catches once. Doing it for one year is just that. It doesn't necessarily equate to his whole career or what he's all about. Or that he's going to produce at those levels again this year. The point was that so far, his career on the whole as a top producer is pretty much about TDs. I get that you're saying "he's arrived, he's the total package now" and I wouldn't be at all surprised. He's not so highly ranked for no reason. 

Not saying you did. But my impression from some here is otherwise so just my 2 cents. 

 

 

If he had gone from ~50-700-10 to last year AND if there was a WR returning from injury that gave him all the targets he had last year, I'd agree. But he went 75-997-12 in 2016 and 74-885-10 in 14 games in 2017 (stretched out to 16 games, 84-1011-11). Even missing two games in 2017, he was the WR14 in 1/2 PPR, and if you took away half his TDs, he was still WR24, which is a WR2. And then he became the unquestioned no1 in 2018, and it showed in the stat line. It's not TDs alone even prior to 2018, imho, because he was putting up solid rec-yards and was trending in the direction he ended up going in last year. And most expected him to make a huge jump last season, iirc (I will gladly stand corrected if I'm wrong). 

Just a caveat on that 2017 season. If he had played all 16 games, he would have been the 5th ranked WR in 1/2 PPR. Nine of the 10 WRs immediately ahead of him played all 16 games, and he would have passed those 9...including Julio, btw. 

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