Chris Carson 2019 Outlook

[MJJ28 1,133]

1 hour ago, Panthers8912 said:

carson just went 3rd round in one of my son long leagues. Made me rethink taking marlon mack a couple picks prior. But carson still runs behind a bad oline so

 

Seahawks line last year was not bad at all.

[nonstopfan 4,593]

3 hours ago, Panthers8912 said:

carson just went 3rd round in one of my son long leagues. Made me rethink taking marlon mack a couple picks prior. But carson still runs behind a bad oline so

 

Seattle's offense last year was predicated on running the ball. Their backs averaged over 4.7 yds per carry. Their o-line had no issues with run blocking. As for Carson, the main thing for him will be health. Even if Penny improves year over year which should be expected, there is still 112 carries up for grabs. As a Carson owner, the focus should be more on his health and less of Penny. He is a rock solid pick where he is going. I don't see the Seahawks changing a philosophy that helped them overachieve last season.

[SenatorSpaceman 2,523]

On 8/7/2019 at 10:36 AM, CooL said:

Current ADP 49 so it's possible, although in all my mocks he never lasts until the 5th. 

If you're picking in the top three this year, I like the strategy of taking one of the elite RBs, followed by WR/WR at the 2/3 turn. Subsequently, Carson would be an ideal RB2 for this approach if he's still available at the 4/5 turn. The only comparable options I see that could potentially be there would be a Lindsay or Ingram. I'd take Carson in a heartbeat over the likes of Coleman, Lamar Miller, Sony, et al. 

[Boudewijn 4,663]

9 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

The only comparable options I see that could potentially be there would be a Lindsay or Ingram. I'd take Carson in a heartbeat over the likes of Coleman, Lamar Miller, Sony, et al. 

I took him in a slow draft at pick #49 (you mention the 4/5 turn, this was a 14-team) ahead of Montgomery, Drake and White; Coleman, Miller and Michel all went a bit later (#55-65). I like your list though, I think we view him similarly.

Edited August 12, 2019 by Boudewijn

[Panthers8912 713]

2 hours ago, CORTEz said:

 

3rd round seems a bit outlandish, unless the person taking him hadn't drafted a RB yet and was afraid Carson wasn't going to make it back to them.

 

Carson should be going somewhere in the 4th/5th round depdending on how deep the league is.

They started Odell, hill with a late first round pick. 12 person league and rbs we’re flying off the board. Sony Michel mark ingram James white and phil Lindsay were the next rbs taken. Slim Pickings

[youngrice 1,303]

19 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Seattle's offense last year was predicated on running the ball. Their backs averaged over 4.7 yds per carry. Their o-line had no issues with run blocking. As for Carson, the main thing for him will be health. Even if Penny improves year over year which should be expected, there is still 112 carries up for grabs. As a Carson owner, the focus should be more on his health and less of Penny. He is a rock solid pick where he is going. I don't see the Seahawks changing a philosophy that helped them overachieve last season.

Agreed health is his biggest issue.  Seems to be always dinged up.  Personally 3rd or 4th are to early for me(but I play in ppr).  But anything past that he is great value and def worth the risk.

[Agmaniacmike 84]

His ADP keeps creeping up. He has been productive when given a heavy workload and was one of the more consistent performers over the 2nd half of last season. I think he's similar to the stable floor that defines  Lamar Miller but with a higher ceiling week to week. I think he may lose some carries to Penny(15-20 instead of the 25 late season last year), but will make up the difference in the passing game.

[handyandy86 2,451]

Too many good reports out on this guy! Need to keep that ADP suppressed!

[scheibler 752]

I have him in a tier with Montgomery, Ingram, and Mack. Being at the bottom of the draft I'll likely nab Kelce and Juju and pick one of these as my rb1 at the 3/4 turn. Carson is prolly my favorite of the bunch, but they're all so close to me

[whoopsie 227]

1 hour ago, TRILL said:

Full point PPR 

Carson in the 12th or James White in the 9th?  I have 2nd pick of draft but McCafrey, Barkley, Kamara all gone.

 

In full PPR White is a known commodity. Very safe. Carson has more upside but way riskier. So depends on what you're looking for.

[smeeze 6,171]

Interesting...

 

[SenatorSpaceman 2,523]

18 minutes ago, smeeze said:

Interesting...

 

Wow. I like Carson this year but I don't know how realistic that is. That number would be more than double his 2018 total and would likely be the result of a somewhat significant shift in Seattle's overall offensive gameplan. 

I suppose he could inherit a decent amount of Mike Davis' 42 targets, but I'm weary of buying into coachspeak about such a dramatic change in how a player is utilized. 

[BMcP 8,612]

1 minute ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Wow. I like Carson this year but I don't know how realistic that is. That number would be more than double his 2018 total and would likely be the result of a somewhat significant shift in Seattle's overall offensive gameplan. 

I suppose he could inherit a decent amount of Mike Davis' 42 targets, but I'm weary of buying into coachspeak about such a dramatic change in how a player is utilized. 

To be fair, it’s not just talk - they’ve literally been receiving more passing-game reps in practice this camp.

[JP_Grizzly 146]

2 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Wow. I like Carson this year but I don't know how realistic that is. That number would be more than double his 2018 total and would likely be the result of a somewhat significant shift in Seattle's overall offensive gameplan. 

I suppose he could inherit a decent amount of Mike Davis' 42 targets, but I'm weary of buying into coachspeak about such a dramatic change in how a player is utilized. 

Truth or Not you have to be excited if you have him on your roster. They are hyping him a lot and sounds like they really want to feature him a bell cow back.

[SenatorSpaceman 2,523]

3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

To be fair, it’s not just talk - they’ve literally been receiving more passing-game reps in practice this camp.

Oh I know that they're making a genuine effort to get him more catches, but that spike in targets would be drastic, albeit not entirely unrealistic. I'd personally welcome it. 

[BMcP 8,612]

Me too - I’m beginning to feel like Carson might be a guy I own everywhere this season.

[handyandy86 2,451]

Schottenheimer needs to keep his mouth shut. Why does he need to say this kind of stuff? Is he trying to drive the price up?

[kball09 1,069]

On 8/12/2019 at 12:52 AM, SenatorSpaceman said:

If you're picking in the top three this year, I like the strategy of taking one of the elite RBs, followed by WR/WR at the 2/3 turn. Subsequently, Carson would be an ideal RB2 for this approach if he's still available at the 4/5 turn. The only comparable options I see that could potentially be there would be a Lindsay or Ingram. I'd take Carson in a heartbeat over the likes of Coleman, Lamar Miller, Sony, et al. 

 

I think literally everyone is thinking this way now. Carson as a 4th round RB may be fading very quickly with all this Carroll hype.

[The G Man 1,067]

If Carson really is more involved in the passing game this season, that bumps him up in the rankings quite a bit in my book. Not getting enough work in the passing game and durability were the only real knocks on him. And, according to camps reports he has looked really, really good. 

[thebadferret 431]

We're drafting tomorrow and I really hope Carson is there for me with pick 54 (round 4). Not sure if I should reach for him in round 3 (pcik 43), but I really would like to. (Maybe get James White at 54 then)

[Mr.Joshua 147]

22 minutes ago, thebadferret said:

We're drafting tomorrow and I really hope Carson is there for me with pick 54 (round 4). Not sure if I should reach for him in round 3 (pcik 43), but I really would like to. (Maybe get James White at 54 then)

I'm on the band wagon as well but 3rd is definitely pushing it for me. Adjust your rankings for his move up the charts but don't over reach too much. 👍

[LivingOnTheEdge 308]

1 hour ago, Mr.Joshua said:

I'm on the band wagon as well but 3rd is definitely pushing it for me. Adjust your rankings for his move up the charts but don't over reach too much. 👍

 

Well, RIGHT before my pick in the 4th (Dynasty) someone draft SEA RB (I was like, MFERRR) than I see Rashaad Penny! OMG so stoked LOL!

[smeeze 6,171]

2 minutes ago, LivingOnTheEdge said:

 

Well, RIGHT before my pick in the 4th (Dynasty) someone draft SEA RB (I was like, MFERRR) than I see Rashaad Penny! OMG so stoked LOL!

I think you could make a pretty strong case for Penny over Carson in a dynasty league. 

[LivingOnTheEdge 308]

Just now, smeeze said:

I think you could make a pretty strong case for Penny over Carson in a dynasty league. 

 

True but if he keeps his production he can't be demoted, dude a stud, sign elsewhere in FA

[Lord_Varys 4,626]

Seattle had 530 rush attempts last year, or nearabout.  4.8 team YPC.  I think volume comes down a bit, call it 500, still a ton.

I figure Carson for 250 of 'em, Penny for 220 if he's lucky, and still leaves attempts for Wilson or WRs.

At 4.6 YPC, Carson would rush for 1100+ yards if he plays 16.  The coach called for 50 targets, which is probably good for about 300 yards.  TDs could be anywhere from 8 to 14.

Not bad for a 4th round pick.