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Chris Carson 2019 Outlook


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53 minutes ago, joebaker23 said:

What are some realistic expectations on how the workload will be distributed? Carson 65/35???

 

Doesn’t matter what the distribution is. Carson will get 18-30 touches per game and Penny will get the rest.

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He just put up 100+ yards in back to back weeks vs TB & SF but dude above isn't impressed.

Not sure if this has been posted but      Watching this and knowing they want to throw to him more makes me an excited Carson owner in PPR.

Carson is closer to AP than Penny is to Carson

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14 minutes ago, Cmilne23 said:

18-30 is quite a large gap....

 

He received 34 touches in a game so it may not even be a big enough gap. 

Carson is going to receive all the touches you could possibly hope for out of the elite RBs. The split won’t matter because Carson will be utilized in full.

Edited by MJJ28
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10 hours ago, bomont said:

A month ago I was looking at Carson as a great value pick. Now his value has shot up out of my draft plans. A RB who doesn't catch in a PPR? No thanks. Not where he's going.

 

He finished as RB14 in my half-PPR league last year, and was RB11 after his Week 8 bye, and that was without really being used in the passing game at all.  This year he'll get all the same volume (or more), along with what sounds like a few more targets in the passing game.  And he's being drafted as RB21 in PPR right now.  What more upside could you need?  Or better yet, what RB around the same ADP as Carson are you currently taking instead of him?  

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16 minutes ago, handyandy86 said:

 

He finished as RB14 in my half-PPR league last year, and was RB11 after his Week 8 bye, and that was without really being used in the passing game at all.  This year he'll get all the same volume (or more), along with what sounds like a few more targets in the passing game.  And he's being drafted as RB21 in PPR right now.  What more upside could you need?  Or better yet, what RB around the same ADP as Carson are you currently taking instead of him?  

Sounds about right to me. At that price, I'm in.

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7 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

He received 34 touches in a game so it may not even be a big enough gap. 

Carson is going to receive all the touches you could possibly hope for out of the elite RBs. The split won’t matter because Carson will be utilized in full.

He averaged just over 18 touches a game last year. He has shown an inability to stay on the field albeit early in his career. Penny was a first round pick and is likely to see more touches now in his second year and healthy. Carson is certainly in for a big workload this season if he stays healthy, but I would not bank on him seeing a significant bump in touches this season. 

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He's looking like a first round bust.  I think an injury to Carson is the only way he sees any consistent, meaningful work.

How has he looked like a first round bust? He averaged about 5 yards per carry last season. Averages more yards per touch than Carson. Small volume, sure, but far from looking like a bust. 

I am not saying Penny has stand alone fantasy value, but I think he is plenty good enough to spell touches for Carson. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Grayson2401 said:

How has he looked like a first round bust? He averaged about 5 yards per carry last season. Averages more yards per touch than Carson. Small volume, sure, but far from looking like a bust. 

I am not saying Penny has stand alone fantasy value, but I think he is plenty good enough to spell touches for Carson. 

 

I just expected him to take a big step forward and really push Carson for the starting job, and it seems all he's done is fall further behind.  He's looked pretty bad this pre-season(I know, but still) and Carson as a 7th round draft pick has ran circles around him for two straight years now.  You would just expect more from a first round pick.  

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3 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I just expected him to take a big step forward and really push Carson for the starting job, and it seems all he's done is fall further behind.  He's looked pretty bad this pre-season(I know, but still) and Carson as a 7th round draft pick has ran circles around him for two straight years now.  You would just expect more from a first round pick.  

Penny was a rookie last season. 

 

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1 minute ago, JoeJoe88 said:

I'm aware...

So he ran circles around him for one season when Penny was a rookie, banged up, and the 3rd string back. I do not think anyone truly expected him to supplant Carson this offseason after Carson proved very capable last year. The verdict is still out on how the distribution plays out this season. I think Carson still likely dominates touches-- I have not argued differently-- I just doubt he sees a significant bump in touches (per game) this season. 

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I don't usually read a lot into preseason but all reports out of camp have been pretty strong for Carson, especially with them saying they what their backs a lot more involved in the passing game. Hes also dominated first team reps during these preseason games while penny has been sprinkled in here and there. Mike Davis is out of town and this is one of the most run heavy teams in the league. There's more then enough volume for Carson to be a high end RB2 and Penny offering some flex appeal. In all of my leagues with carson ive been sure to snag Penny as the cuff. Its a bit early to call penny a bust, but its no secret that Carson has been the better of the 2 so far.

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9 hours ago, handyandy86 said:

He finished as RB14 in my half-PPR league last year, and was RB11 after his Week 8 bye, and that was without really being used in the passing game at all.  This year he'll get all the same volume (or more), along with what sounds like a few more targets in the passing game.  And he's being drafted as RB21 in PPR right now.  What more upside could you need?  

One which includes staying on the field. "Great when healthy" makes me nervous. He's basically 0 for 2 so far. At his mid-Aug price it was worth the risk. Not any more. But I get the Carson backers, if he does stay healthy, great, I'll just pass.

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The beginning of the season Carson will see the majority of the touches and then as the season goes on and the aches and pains of the games come on I expect seeing more carries going to Penny, but still Carson will be the #1 RB in Seattle unless he is injured. 

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20 hours ago, MJJ28 said:

 

Doesn’t matter what the distribution is. Carson will get 18-30 touches per game and Penny will get the rest.

If by that you mean the least he gets will be 18 and the most 30, maybe. If you mean he's going to average 20something touches a game, unlikely. Agree he like Gurley will be great early on, but IMO sell high because in the 2d half they're both missing some games and/or serious reduction in touches IMO.

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11 minutes ago, bomont said:

If by that you mean the least he gets will be 18 and the most 30, maybe. If you mean he's going to average 20something touches a game, unlikely. Agree he like Gurley will be great early on, but IMO sell high because in the 2d half they're both missing some games and/or serious reduction in touches IMO.

Except that we're talking about the Seahawks, who suck the first several games and then are unbeatable the rest of the regular season every single year.

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With a running back from almost any other team I’d be panicking about the gaping holes on the Seahawks defense. However, Seattle is as comitted to running the ball this year as anyone and have a strong belief on its benefits to their play action passing. This is Brian. Schottenheimer. Watch this OC call plays for a single game and you would think he has a physical allergy to calling a shotgun pass play. That being said the defense is a concern nonetheless. We should expect a poor performance from the defense to hurt his ceiling more than his floor. 

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Chris Carson is currently drafted in the RB15-RB20 range....and I am happily 2-for-2 in grabbing him this year...

I've taken him over the likes of Marlon Mack, Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Freeman etc...

I've been big on Chris Carson since he broke onto the scene a couple pre-season's ago...Loved his hardnose running style, and I never understood why SEA didn't utilize him more often in the passing game, as he's got great hands. Not only that, he's great in the open field. Quick enough to get around defenders. Strong enough to not go down easy.

 

To me, he's got a legitimate shot at being a Top-10 RB this season, and I think his ceiling might even be Top-6/7. 

He's a lock on paper to get 18-22 touches a game, he'll be the goalline back, and quite honestly, it's sounding like we could see him in the game for a handful of 3-down packages now that SEA seems to finally realize the guy can contribute in the passing game. 

And it might sound bold to say something like this, but it wouldn't at all surprise me to see him turn into a cheaper version of a healthy Todd Gurley...Probably not going to get anywhere near 50 catches, but I wouldn't be surprised to see him pull down 35-40 catches and 350-400 yards receiving.

 

My Fearless Forecast:

Rushing: 270-1,200-8 // Receiving: 38-375-2

Edited by CORTEz
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On 8/26/2019 at 11:04 PM, EaglesRocker97 said:

I'd be intersted to head the rebuttals of some of the 6 people who made "crazy" faces at my comment. I don't profess to know this team inside and out, but I did own Carson last year and followed him pretty closely. He just doesn't move the needle for me as a surefire RB1, especially in any for of PPR, but I'm willing to reconsider where I have him pegged if someone can offer a strong argument to the contrary.

 

If you think third round picks equate to "surefire" RB1s then you're in for a rude awakening and might be why you're getting crazy faces, in fact have another for this comment.

He's pegged pretty close to where he should be.

 

Edited by Gabbed
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50 minutes ago, Gabbed said:

 

If you think third round picks equate to "surefire" RB1s then you're in for a rude awakening and might be why you're getting crazy faces, in fact have another for this comment.

He's pegged pretty close to where he should be.

 

I think we agree. That's where I have him. Others seem to think much more highly of him.

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