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Julio Jones 2019 Outlook


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12th-rated O-line (per PFF).  Not going to cry about Julio’s or Matt’s chances playing behind that.

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With Julio at 30 years old and the age topic being discussed in the thread, here is another set of data to consider (or not, as that's up to each person)... I looked up the top 75 in career receivi

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average. This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put ever

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13 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

You only cited one example in all of that. Because there aren't any more. Perhaps that is why people talk about it so much? Because it is true.

 

You also aren't considering that the funds saved by not signing a WR will help better a team in other areas.

In the last 30 years, all of the following WR's have been both All Pro's and won a Super Bowl in their career with that same team:  Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Gary Clark, Antonio Freeman, Ed McCaffrey (2nd team in a SB year), Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, Rod Smith (2x 2nd team), Hines Ward (3x second team), Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Victor Cruz (2nd team in a SB year), Demaryius Thomas (2x 2nd team), Jordy Nelson (2nd team)

All-Pro and a runner up with the same team: Andre Reed, Terry Glenn, Tim Brown, Randy Moss, Mushin Muhammad, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones

All Pro with a different team, won a SB still in prime:  Keyshawn Johnson

All Pro with a different team, runner up: Terrell Owens, Randy Moss

Among the runners up, Andre Reed was a missed field goal away, Randy Moss and Welker were a David Tyree away.  Muhammad and Smith were in a neck and neck game.   Fitzgerald and Julio Jones lost heartbreakers too.    All of them support my side- elite WR play got them to the cusp, and the reasons they lost were dumb coaching, dumb luck, or just being barely second best.   

Marques Colston won a super bowl, had nearly 10K yards as a Saint, and was handsomely paid at one point.  Alshon Jeffery is a damn good WR and was a key to the Eagles win.   

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13 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Edelman is not criminally underpaid. He's wise enough to know that he's nothing without Brady.

 

Edelman has made 26 million in his entire career.  Check this out: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/earnings/wide-receiver/

Less than Torrey Smith, Darrius Heyward Bey, Danny Amendola, Marvin Jones, Randall Cobb, Ted Ginn, and Tavon Austin.  Sammy Watkins got 20 mil guaranteed on one contract last year.   Mohamed Sanu is a few million behind Edelman.

I also don't buy into the Brady made him good narrative.   Many receivers there haven't worked over the years. Outside of Moss (HOF, argument for top 5 ever) and Welker, no one's been as productive as Edelman.   

 

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7 hours ago, BrianM said:

Edelman has made 26 million in his entire career.  Check this out: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/earnings/wide-receiver/

Less than Torrey Smith, Darrius Heyward Bey, Danny Amendola, Marvin Jones, Randall Cobb, Ted Ginn, and Tavon Austin.  Sammy Watkins got 20 mil guaranteed on one contract last year.   Mohamed Sanu is a few million behind Edelman.

I also don't buy into the Brady made him good narrative.   Many receivers there haven't worked over the years. Outside of Moss (HOF, argument for top 5 ever) and Welker, no one's been as productive as Edelman.   

 

 

All those players were WRs in college and were drafted well before Edelman...of course they've made more; much of their money was in their rookie contracts. 

 

Edelman did nothing his first 4 years in the league. Nothing. It's only when Amendola busted as the "new Walker" in 2013 that he emerged. 

 

He was basically taught to be a WR by Brady...much as Peyton Manning taught DT how to run routes starting in 2012. 

 

So I repeat: he's not underpaid. His value completely comes from being an extension of Brady's mind on the field. 

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8 hours ago, BrianM said:

Edelman has made 26 million in his entire career.  Check this out: https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/earnings/wide-receiver/

Less than Torrey Smith, Darrius Heyward Bey, Danny Amendola, Marvin Jones, Randall Cobb, Ted Ginn, and Tavon Austin.  Sammy Watkins got 20 mil guaranteed on one contract last year.   Mohamed Sanu is a few million behind Edelman.

I also don't buy into the Brady made him good narrative.   Many receivers there haven't worked over the years. Outside of Moss (HOF, argument for top 5 ever) and Welker, no one's been as productive as Edelman.   

 

 

Ha! Did you ever ask yourself why Edelman never left in FA and chased a bigger payday or pushed the pats to pay him more? Methinks he knows that his opportunitites elsewhere would not have increased his value as a brand and a player more than being on the Pats. 

Some players realize that they will never perform better on another team and system, so they don't chase the contract money and focus on the off field money.

No one would buy a $30 JE11 hat in Cincinatti. . .but those Pats fans buy them like they are a must have item😜

 

Also he would not be dating Adriana Lima if he was in Indiana. . . Wait a sec pats player dating a latina super model and has a baby with his ex gf too?

The brady influence is very strong here. . 😱

 

 

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2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Ha! Did you ever ask yourself why Edelman never left in FA and chased a bigger payday or pushed the pats to pay him more? Methinks he knows that his opportunitites elsewhere would not have increased his value as a brand and a player more than being on the Pats. 

Some players realize that they will never perform better on another team and system, so they don't chase the contract money and focus on the off field money.

No one would buy a $30 JE11 hat in Cincinatti. . .but those Pats fans buy them like they are a must have item😜

 

Also he would not be dating Adriana Lima if he was in Indiana. . . Wait a sec pats player dating a latina super model and has a baby with his ex gf too?

The brady influence is very strong here. . 😱

 

 

Maybe it’s the other teams that realize he would not perform as well outside of the NE system.

Officer & a Gentleman 2.0 ...”I got no place to go!”

 

 

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11 hours ago, BrianM said:

In the last 30 years, all of the following WR's have been both All Pro's and won a Super Bowl in their career with that same team:  Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Gary Clark, Antonio Freeman, Ed McCaffrey (2nd team in a SB year), Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, Rod Smith (2x 2nd team), Hines Ward (3x second team), Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Victor Cruz (2nd team in a SB year), Demaryius Thomas (2x 2nd team), Jordy Nelson (2nd team)

All-Pro and a runner up with the same team: Andre Reed, Terry Glenn, Tim Brown, Randy Moss, Mushin Muhammad, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones

All Pro with a different team, won a SB still in prime:  Keyshawn Johnson

All Pro with a different team, runner up: Terrell Owens, Randy Moss

Among the runners up, Andre Reed was a missed field goal away, Randy Moss and Welker were a David Tyree away.  Muhammad and Smith were in a neck and neck game.   Fitzgerald and Julio Jones lost heartbreakers too.    All of them support my side- elite WR play got them to the cusp, and the reasons they lost were dumb coaching, dumb luck, or just being barely second best.   

Marques Colston won a super bowl, had nearly 10K yards as a Saint, and was handsomely paid at one point.  Alshon Jeffery is a damn good WR and was a key to the Eagles win.   

 

Right so almost all of those examples are from 15+ years ago. You are proving my point. Thank you.

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On 3/22/2019 at 7:32 PM, joshua18 said:

 

So maybe it's not their faults but Julio's. Ryan is an MVP-level QB, and they've had a lot of good OCs. The common denominator is Julio not getting it done in the TD department, despite getting a truckload of targets every year.

^ still not watching games

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Not at all to do with Julio Jones, but why is Evan. Silva. Such a...fill in the blank.  Talk about a guy who isn’t equipped to hear his own opinions challenged!  It’s kind of sad

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11 hours ago, BrianM said:

In the last 30 years, all of the following WR's have been both All Pro's and won a Super Bowl in their career with that same team:  Jerry Rice, Michael Irvin, Gary Clark, Antonio Freeman, Ed McCaffrey (2nd team in a SB year), Marvin Harrison, Isaac Bruce, Rod Smith (2x 2nd team), Hines Ward (3x second team), Torry Holt, Reggie Wayne, Victor Cruz (2nd team in a SB year), Demaryius Thomas (2x 2nd team), Jordy Nelson (2nd team)

All-Pro and a runner up with the same team: Andre Reed, Terry Glenn, Tim Brown, Randy Moss, Mushin Muhammad, Steve Smith, Wes Welker, Larry Fitzgerald, Julio Jones

All Pro with a different team, won a SB still in prime:  Keyshawn Johnson

All Pro with a different team, runner up: Terrell Owens, Randy Moss

Among the runners up, Andre Reed was a missed field goal away, Randy Moss and Welker were a David Tyree away.  Muhammad and Smith were in a neck and neck game.   Fitzgerald and Julio Jones lost heartbreakers too.    All of them support my side- elite WR play got them to the cusp, and the reasons they lost were dumb coaching, dumb luck, or just being barely second best.   

Marques Colston won a super bowl, had nearly 10K yards as a Saint, and was handsomely paid at one point.  Alshon Jeffery is a damn good WR and was a key to the Eagles win.   

Please go back and identify how many of those wrs you listed were paid as “best in class” when they played in the SB...which is the point after all.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

Not at all to do with Julio Jones, but why is Evan. Silva. Such a...fill in the blank.  Talk about a guy who isn’t equipped to hear his own opinions challenged!  It’s kind of sad

Nobody reads Silva...wasted *space & money...

 

*if he actually gets paid RW

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4 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Please go back and identify how many of those wrs you listed were paid as “best in class” when they played in the SB...which is the point after all.

 

Victor Cruz was making 490,000 during his SB year. I stopped there.

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15 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Victor Cruz was making 490,000 during his SB year. I stopped there.

 

I could by the same logic argue that Russel Wilson's cheap rookie deal means you dont pay a QB to help you win a super bowl.   You cherry picked.  

I'm not going back and seeing who got paid when.  All of the guys I listed got big contracts at some point..  I've shown that all pro WR's are regularly part of Super Bowls, win or lose.  You dont agree, sure, but the "sometimes the guys were not paid well the season they won" point is bunk.  There's no obvious strategy to luck out on such a player. You want top WR's, pay them, especially when they're close to sure things like Julio. 

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18 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

Ha! Did you ever ask yourself why Edelman never left in FA and chased a bigger payday or pushed the pats to pay him more? Methinks he knows that his opportunitites elsewhere would not have increased his value as a brand and a player more than being on the Pats.

 

 

You dont know any more than i do why he never chased the money.  Maybe you're right, or maybe he just likes the winning?  Who knows.  Not really relevant.   Just pointing out his production is a lot higher than a lot of guys who will earn a lot more

Whoever made the point of rookie contracts- point acknowledged- big difference maker in his case.   

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1 hour ago, psygolf said:

I betting you started to make a list and didn't like where it was going.

 

the "sometimes the guys were not paid well the season they won" point is bunk.  There's no obvious strategy to luck out on such a player. 

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3 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

the "sometimes the guys were not paid well the season they won" point is bunk.  There's no obvious strategy to luck out on such a player. 

Bunk? lol

All successful teams that have sustained their level of success must determine the best allocation of cap funds.

History shows that it is best to not have 10% or so of that cap tied into a single rb or wr...no matter how much you want it to be true.

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7 hours ago, BrianM said:

 

I could by the same logic argue that Russel Wilson's cheap rookie deal means you dont pay a QB to help you win a super bowl.   You cherry picked.  

I'm not going back and seeing who got paid when.  All of the guys I listed got big contracts at some point..  I've shown that all pro WR's are regularly part of Super Bowls, win or lose.  You dont agree, sure, but the "sometimes the guys were not paid well the season they won" point is bunk.  There's no obvious strategy to luck out on such a player. You want top WR's, pay them, especially when they're close to sure things like Julio. 

 

If you did go back, you'd see you were wrong. It happens.

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11 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

If you did go back, you'd see you were wrong. It happens.

 

Trying to sum this up and address counter arguments.

I believe that there's enough All Pro WR's that have won super bowls, or come close, to at least cast shade on the anti-Julio argument.   You've pointed out that the last 15 years has seen less than the 15 years prior, clearly correct of course.  I chose a larger sample size. If you want to look at just the last 15 years, basically the Patriots era, there's probably a dozen of the guys in my ramble of names that played in the super bowl.   More than half didn't WIN it, but I believe that getting close enough is a notch in my side of the argument.  I dont believe the Falcons win the SB if they trade off Julio's salary for better defense.  I blame the coaches for that, for example.   You can also very easily note that the last 5 years have supported your argument even more- basically Julio and Demaryius are the only ones.  Point granted.   

Focusing on the how much they were paid argument......see above that I have entrenched my belief that All Pro WR's do make a strong difference.   I again did not, and will not go back to check their salaries.  You'll find some that made great money during their SB years or All Pro years (not sure which you're even looking for data on) and some that were values.    I dont think that matters at all.  I get why you're bringing it up, but I think that star WR's are difference makers, and therefore a desirable player to have on your roster.   I never put stock in the theory that you should only get a star if its cheap.   Pay the players you can get, and when they're stars, pay them what they're worth.   "We can't pay Julio Jones because the Giants lucked out on Victor Cruz for cheap and he was an all pro on their title team"- not a belief I subscribe to.   That's why I dont care how much they were paid while they won, and even if i did, i believe plenty of the guys I listed probably were highly paid.   

 

TL:DR-  maybe there's something there to the "you dont need the WR to win argument".  I'll call it difference of opinion.   But, I dont buy at all that my side of that argument is dismissable because some of the all pros I listed didn't earn high salaries when they made the AP team.   

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2 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 If you want to look at just the last 15 years, basically the Patriots era, there's probably a dozen of the guys in my ramble of names that played in the super bowl.   

 

Quick peek here gives me 6 guys that won a bowl in the last 15- Wayne, Harrison, Cruz, Ward, Nelson, DT, and 6 that lost:  Moss, Welker, Wayne, Julio, DT, and Fitz

In a (probably failing) attempt at closing, I contend again that when you have All Pro talent, you pay it when the time comes, and you're a better team for it.   Every one of these guys save for Moss and Welker were drafted (or UDFA) by their original teams.     I dont think throwing dollars blindly at free agents is a winning strategy, but drafting, developing, retaining, is the way to go.    True of most any position.  

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Making Julio the highest paid wr in the league will not help the falcon SB cause.  

Telling him to play out his latest contract so they can afford to fortify the team so he has a better chance to get a ring should be their response to his request.

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45 minutes ago, BrianM said:

 

Quick peek here gives me 6 guys that won a bowl in the last 15- Wayne, Harrison, Cruz, Ward, Nelson, DT, and 6 that lost:  Moss, Welker, Wayne, Julio, DT, and Fitz

In a (probably failing) attempt at closing, I contend again that when you have All Pro talent, you pay it when the time comes, and you're a better team for it.   Every one of these guys save for Moss and Welker were drafted (or UDFA) by their original teams.     I dont think throwing dollars blindly at free agents is a winning strategy, but drafting, developing, retaining, is the way to go.    True of most any position.  

 

We already went over this, not all those guys were being paid like the top WR on the league. The question is, is it a good use of cap space to pay up for a stud WR. My contention is that it's not. Looks like we can agree to disagree here though, as it's not really fantasy relevant.

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They're squeezing for cap no matter what at this point.  Matt Ryan's deal looks likely to hold them back more than anything.   Balloons to mid 30's on cap hit the next few years (after 2019).   Can't reasonably cut him until after 2021, which still leaves behind 18 mil dead.    He'll be 36 then.   

Gonna take some wizardry here  Right now, they have about 30 million in 2020 cap space.  They'll get a little more as the overall cap should increase, but they have a lot of key free agents to retain or replace too- Jarrett, Deion Jones, and Neal stand out.  Neal has the 5th year option but that's not on the books yet and will make him costly.  

 

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Just now, BrianM said:

They're squeezing for cap no matter what at this point.  Matt Ryan's deal looks likely to hold them back more than anything.   Balloons to mid 30's on cap hit the next few years (after 2019).   Can't reasonably cut him until after 2021, which still leaves behind 18 mil dead.    He'll be 36 then.   

Gonna take some wizardry here  Right now, they have about 30 million in 2020 cap space.  They'll get a little more as the overall cap should increase, but they have a lot of key free agents to retain or replace too- Jarrett, Deion Jones, and Neal stand out.  Neal has the 5th year option but that's not on the books yet and will make him costly.  

 

 

Yeah Matty Ice makes way too much money IMO.

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On 3/23/2019 at 5:17 AM, BMcP said:

12th-rated O-line (per PFF).  Not going to cry about Julio’s or Matt’s chances playing behind that.

 

i didn't watch the falcons too much last season, but their offensive line looked gash when i did!

did they have notable injuries?

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