Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Julio Jones 2019 Outlook


Boudewijn
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 hours ago, ItsMeMario said:

Decline at 30 yrs and on a bunch of testoterone cycle ? Lmao .... only decline is if big knee surgery

People just get scared when football players hit the big 3-0. According to the data, the decline for WRs doesn’t really hit until age 32. He’s still in his prime on a statistic level and obviously a performance level. As we all know, the only thing holding Julio back from no.1 WR status over Adams and Hopkins are his TD numbers. I’m willing to gamble that the new OC will get Julio back to the double digit TD realm and thus turn him into the WR1. And if that happens.. I’ll bust in my pants.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 7/25/2019 at 4:54 PM, K197040 said:

I don't know why I  have him mentally filed as an injury risk.  This will probably be the first year where I won't have a clear cut player to pick over him.   But I still find myself avoiding him and taking Thomas or OBJ in mocks.  Or even both Thomas and OBJ.  I need to think harder about that.  Seems irrational. 

Thomas is the safest pick health wise and is very consistent. OBJ is easily the riskiest health wise of the 3 but probably has the highest ceiling. Julio is a couple more TDs above his average to be the best of the best in fantasy this year. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average.

image.png.b8acf74977cb4d809a9a83f9bf3963e5.png

This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put everything in an excel sheet and crunched some data. I found 400 receivers with multiple seasons in the data, and base my numbers on this. I looked at the peak of their numbers, but also at the yearly increase/decrease. Eg Antonio Brown had his "peak age" at age 27 (1800 yards); the season after is marked as "decrease" (1293) but the season after that he improvedd again (1533 at age 29). I took all these peaks and all these percentage increases, and sliced and diced them in a number of ways. 

The chart above is a result of that. The line is the number of receivers for each age group. The numbers are highest around 25, because receivers that start to decline after that age, are generally dumped unceremoniously. If you're 24 you can get another chance after a couple bad seasons, but at 28, that's rare (and of course, career ending injuries are a factor.

The bars are the number of receivers that improved or decreased their yardage (or stayed within +/- 10%) compared to the previous season. The numbers don't add up to the full total for the same age group, because players sometimes miss a season, or dip so far below.

So now, you can see that at age 32, the yellow bar (decrease) is clearly larger than the green bar (improved). For other age groups it's not that clear, so let's take the same data in a slightly different graph:

image.png.9e0b8a753352f94211023812b27feaf3.png

Now it's easier to compare the green (improve) and yellow (decrease) bars. 

- Until age 25 the green bar is clearly larger, so we can say that 25-yo receivers generally improve over their age 24 season

- after age 28 the yellow bar is consistently larger than the green bar, so 28-yo receivers generally decrease.

I've done this a number of times, with different groups of data, and each time I reached similar conclusions. WRs decline on average WELL before their 30th birthday. Yes, the best can stay on a high level for a long time, but that's not the argument. If you say "the decline for WRs doesn’t really hit until age 32", I say "I think it's earlier".

 

Excellent info. What if you only looked at WRs who were top 20 the previous season and then whether they increased or decreased the next year? I just wonder if the top players possibly have more longevity, while the average or scrub players do disappear starting around age 28. I think it would make sense that there’s a drop off at around age 25 and then again at around age 28 for whether players “are going to make it” in the league. If they haven’t made it by age 28, their opportunity drops off even if their ability is still roughly the same. But that may not be relevant to a discussion about whether Julio’s ability will drop off at age 30.

The sample size may become a little small when looking at that subset. But I’d be interested to see if you have the data readily available. 

Edited by gufomel
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, gufomel said:

What if you only looked at WRs who were top 20 the previous season and then whether they increased or decreased the next year?

As you say the data may become thin, but also if you specifically look for top 20 players, I think normal volatility will mean they're expected on average to score a bit lower the next season.

However, as said I looked at the top 400 players in my data; I can run the same on the top 100 or top 50 and see if it gets very different (while still statistically interesting).

I did in the meantime check similar data for RBs and for them I did check whether the results are very different by looking at the top 50 instead of the top 400; the answer is that I'm not sure. It seems the peak age becomes a bit later (by a year) but it's very hard to draw firm conclusions.

I expect the same should happen with WRs; I'll check that when I have a chance.

  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average.

image.png.b8acf74977cb4d809a9a83f9bf3963e5.png

This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put everything in an excel sheet and crunched some data. I found 400 receivers with multiple seasons in the data, and base my numbers on this. I looked at the peak of their numbers, but also at the yearly increase/decrease. Eg Antonio Brown had his "peak age" at age 27 (1800 yards); the season after is marked as "decrease" (1293) but the season after that he improvedd again (1533 at age 29). I took all these peaks and all these percentage increases, and sliced and diced them in a number of ways. 

The chart above is a result of that. The line is the number of receivers for each age group. The numbers are highest around 25, because receivers that start to decline after that age, are generally dumped unceremoniously. If you're 24 you can get another chance after a couple bad seasons, but at 28, that's rare (and of course, career ending injuries are a factor.

The bars are the number of receivers that improved or decreased their yardage (or stayed within +/- 10%) compared to the previous season. The numbers don't add up to the full total for the same age group, because players sometimes miss a season, or dip so far below.

So now, you can see that at age 32, the yellow bar (decrease) is clearly larger than the green bar (improved). For other age groups it's not that clear, so let's take the same data in a slightly different graph:

image.png.9e0b8a753352f94211023812b27feaf3.png

Now it's easier to compare the green (improve) and yellow (decrease) bars. 

- Until age 25 the green bar is clearly larger, so we can say that 25-yo receivers generally improve over their age 24 season

- after age 28 the yellow bar is consistently larger than the green bar, so 28-yo receivers generally decrease.

I've done this a number of times, with different groups of data, and each time I reached similar conclusions. WRs decline on average WELL before their 30th birthday. Yes, the best can stay on a high level for a long time, but that's not the argument. If you say "the decline for WRs doesn’t really hit until age 32", I say "I think it's earlier".

 

How do you do those graph is it hard ? I want to learn ! You know courses or something like that on Udemy ?

Edited by ItsMeMario
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

As you say the data may become thin, but also if you specifically look for top 20 players, I think normal volatility will mean they're expected on average to score a bit lower the next season.

However, as said I looked at the top 400 players in my data; I can run the same on the top 100 or top 50 and see if it gets very different (while still statistically interesting).

I did in the meantime check similar data for RBs and for them I did check whether the results are very different by looking at the top 50 instead of the top 400; the answer is that I'm not sure. It seems the peak age becomes a bit later (by a year) but it's very hard to draw firm conclusions.

I expect the same should happen with WRs; I'll check that when I have a chance.

Fantastic graphic.

But I agree, I think using such a large set is going to be a little misleading. Personally, I'd think top 10, or even top 5, year over year is going to be more indicative for a Julio/Hopkins/AB type.

Elite players are usually elite athletes, and just on a completely different physical/biological level than 99% of their contemporaries. 

Additionally, I wonder what the effect of era is.  Receivers used to get hit harder, but they're used more now (except maybe blocking?).  Pros are generally better athletes, but their training is more specialized. ESPN had an article about something I've long thought about. It was about basketball, not football, but team docs were talking about how so many kids were coming into the NBA basically broken down since they'd been playing year round from a young age.  It might simply be recency bias or a different approach than in the past, but it does seem like NFL injuries are more and more frequent.  Unlike the barbaric days when players smoked in the locker room at halftime, training isn't just the basic lifting, cardio, and calisthenics those guys did.  It was, I assume, more well rounded back then.  In the modern era, so much training is extremely specific and isometric.  I'd speculate that such specialized regimens may unbalance, or over-stress, the body.

TL:DR - I digress.

Again, great data.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looking at this chart (see link below), it’s clear that a wide receiver doesn’t fall off at the age of 28. In fact, he hits his fantasy prime at the age of 29. Some will say that it’s skewed results due to the players who are still playing at that age are likely top-notch, but you mustn’t forget that we removed all players with less than 50 targets. A wide receiver holds tons of value through his age 31 season, though that’s where we start to see a drop-off in elite production.

Once a receiver turns 32, his elite fantasy days are likely over, as there’s been just 2-of-91 players who’ve been able to finish top-five after turning 32 years of age. Meanwhile, we’ve still yet to see a 21-year-old wide receiver finish top-five, though that shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. We see a clear escalator in potential from 22 through 29, with the prime years from 27 to 31.

WR1 Numbers (Top-12 Potential)

Now that we know a wide receiver loses his elite upside at the age of 32, what about performing as a consistent WR1 for your fantasy team?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/fantasy-football-at-what-age-does-a-wide-receiver-decline-2019/amp/

 

article about age vs wr1 numbers. 

Edited by UcanTry
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average.

image.png.b8acf74977cb4d809a9a83f9bf3963e5.png

This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put everything in an excel sheet and crunched some data. I found 400 receivers with multiple seasons in the data, and base my numbers on this. I looked at the peak of their numbers, but also at the yearly increase/decrease. Eg Antonio Brown had his "peak age" at age 27 (1800 yards); the season after is marked as "decrease" (1293) but the season after that he improvedd again (1533 at age 29). I took all these peaks and all these percentage increases, and sliced and diced them in a number of ways. 

The chart above is a result of that. The line is the number of receivers for each age group. The numbers are highest around 25, because receivers that start to decline after that age, are generally dumped unceremoniously. If you're 24 you can get another chance after a couple bad seasons, but at 28, that's rare (and of course, career ending injuries are a factor.

The bars are the number of receivers that improved or decreased their yardage (or stayed within +/- 10%) compared to the previous season. The numbers don't add up to the full total for the same age group, because players sometimes miss a season, or dip so far below.

So now, you can see that at age 32, the yellow bar (decrease) is clearly larger than the green bar (improved). For other age groups it's not that clear, so let's take the same data in a slightly different graph:

image.png.9e0b8a753352f94211023812b27feaf3.png

Now it's easier to compare the green (improve) and yellow (decrease) bars. 

- Until age 25 the green bar is clearly larger, so we can say that 25-yo receivers generally improve over their age 24 season

- after age 28 the yellow bar is consistently larger than the green bar, so 28-yo receivers generally decrease.

I've done this a number of times, with different groups of data, and each time I reached similar conclusions. WRs decline on average WELL before their 30th birthday. Yes, the best can stay on a high level for a long time, but that's not the argument. If you say "the decline for WRs doesn’t really hit until age 32", I say "I think it's earlier".

Hm.. I got my data from a homeless guy outside an abandoned K-Mart. To be more specific, I should’ve said a decline into fantasy irrelevance which I think your graph shows. Still, you can see some of the game’s elite all time receivers having excellent seasons at age 30+. The graph is certainly helpful but when you’re dealing with outliers of talent you tend to get outliers in results.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, SadFaceHappy said:

Elite players are usually elite athletes, and just on a completely different physical/biological level than 99% of their contemporaries. 

 

20 hours ago, gufomel said:

What if you only looked at WRs who were top 20 the previous season and then whether they increased or decreased the next year?

How about this graph:

image.png.c1dc7f31c74963c9e7fffab24b4a1961.png

This shows the top 100, the next 100, and then 300-400. You see that in fact the effect is most noticeable in the elite receivers.

The same chart for rushing data:

image.png.9dabe318f636607847d09d9010396ca3.png

 

You see that near the right end of the chart, there is very little data left, so the chart becomes a bit more ragged. But I think the overall conclusion is clear. 

@UcanTry @KidDynamite420 I'll come back to your link later.

Edited by Boudewijn
  • Like 2
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, UcanTry said:

 

WR1 Numbers (Top-12 Potential)

Now that we know a wide receiver loses his elite upside at the age of 32, what about performing as a consistent WR1 for your fantasy team?

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/fantasy-football-at-what-age-does-a-wide-receiver-decline-2019/amp/

 

article about age vs wr1 numbers. 

Sorry, but that is a terrible article. The data is skewed, and they use the skew to defend their point of view, which is simply bad.

Let's put that data in a graph and see what I mean:

image.png.af7d54ddf77182f8d14ca4da38593e15.png

There is clearly weird data at age 29 and age 34, but even with that the trend is clear.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Boudewijn said:

Sorry, but that is a terrible article. The data is skewed, and they use the skew to defend their point of view, which is simply bad.

Let's put that data in a graph and see what I mean:

image.png.af7d54ddf77182f8d14ca4da38593e15.png

There is clearly weird data at age 29 and age 34, but even with that the trend is clear.

 

So avoid 28 year old WRs?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not getting into the age of when the "average" WR declines...but the greatest WR's are still pretty terrific at age 30 (the age Julio Jones will play at in 2019). 

Here are the stats for (arguably) the top 10 WR's to play across the past 40 seasons...

**Age 30**
--Jerry Rice: 84 catches - 1201 yards - 10 TD
--Antonio Brown: 104 catches - 1297 yards - 15 TD
--Randy Moss: 98 catches - 1493 yards - 23 TD
--Marvin Harrison: 143 catches - 1722 yards - 11 TD
--Calvin Johnson: 88 catches - 1214 yards - 9 TD
--Cris Carter: 122 catches - 1371 yards - 17 TD
--Steve Largent: 74 catches - 1164 yards - 12 TD
--Terrell Owens: 80 catches - 1102 yards - 9 TD
--Tim Brown: 90 catches - 1104 yards - 9 TD
--Larry Fitzgerald: 82 catches - 954 yards - 10 TD

Average: 97 catches - 1262 yards - 13 TD
(Which comes out to a season of 301.2 FP's for 1 point PPR without any yardage bonuses; that would be the #8 ranking for WR's in 2018...and remember, most of this Top 10 put their stats up in eras less pass-friendly & pass-happy than the era we're in today)

This is no way is saying that Julio Jones is only to going to get the #8 WR ranking in 2019. The point is that the best of the best in the WR game still put up big numbers at age 30 (and ages 31 and 32, but that's another story). I think Julio will go down as a top 10 WR himself (though you can state he's there already and I wouldn't argue) and as one of the elites, I think he should be able to achieve big things at 30 too. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Not getting into the age of when the "average" WR declines...but the greatest WR's are still pretty terrific at age 30 (the age Julio Jones will play at in 2019). 

 

9 minutes ago, smeeze said:

“The reports of my death were greatly exaggerated” — Julio Jones, hopefully

Wait wait wait. At no point did I say: "when a WR reaches 30 suddenly he loses all capability and he can't catch a cold anymore" - obviously guys like Julio and AB are still insanely good receivers. Look at Larry Fitzgerald who at age 56 or whatever he is now still does his magic.

What we are talking about is a statistical analysis: on average, the 30yo receiver will be slightly worse than his 29yo season. Maybe 5-10%.

On average. Don't confuse statistics with crystal ball predictions, that's not what I'm trying to do.

(And I think you know that, just want to make sure everyone understands.)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Wait wait wait. At no point did I say: "when a WR reaches 30 suddenly he loses all capability and he can't catch a cold anymore" - obviously guys like Julio and AB are still insanely good receivers. Look at Larry Fitzgerald who at age 56 or whatever he is now still does his magic.

What we are talking about is a statistical analysis: on average, the 30yo receiver will be slightly worse than his 29yo season. Maybe 5-10%.

On average. Don't confuse statistics with crystal ball predictions, that's not what I'm trying to do.

(And I think you know that, just want to make sure everyone understands.)

 

I know you weren’t predicting his demise, just making light of all the decline talk. As an owner in a keep-forever league since his rookie season it’s depressing (and makes me feel old) that he might be on the doorstep of that stage of his career.

Here’s a better quote:

“I'm not a prediction-type guy, but I might mess around and go three (thousand).” — Julio Jones, 2019

Edited by smeeze
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Corleone said:

Not getting into the age of when the "average" WR declines...but the greatest WR's are still pretty terrific at age 30 (the age Julio Jones will play at in 2019). 

Here are the stats for (arguably) the top 10 WR's to play across the past 40 seasons...

**Age 30**
--Jerry Rice: 84 catches - 1201 yards - 10 TD
--Antonio Brown: 104 catches - 1297 yards - 15 TD
--Randy Moss: 98 catches - 1493 yards - 23 TD
--Marvin Harrison: 143 catches - 1722 yards - 11 TD
--Calvin Johnson: 88 catches - 1214 yards - 9 TD
--Cris Carter: 122 catches - 1371 yards - 17 TD
--Steve Largent: 74 catches - 1164 yards - 12 TD
--Terrell Owens: 80 catches - 1102 yards - 9 TD
--Tim Brown: 90 catches - 1104 yards - 9 TD
--Larry Fitzgerald: 82 catches - 954 yards - 10 TD

Average: 97 catches - 1262 yards - 13 TD
(Which comes out to a season of 301.2 FP's for 1 point PPR without any yardage bonuses; that would be the #8 ranking for WR's in 2018...and remember, most of this Top 10 put their stats up in eras less pass-friendly & pass-happy than the era we're in today)

This is no way is saying that Julio Jones is only to going to get the #8 WR ranking in 2019. The point is that the best of the best in the WR game still put up big numbers at age 30 (and ages 31 and 32, but that's another story). I think Julio will go down as a top 10 WR himself (though you can state he's there already and I wouldn't argue) and as one of the elites, I think he should be able to achieve big things at 30 too. 

 

Julio is not top-10 all time.   He's not even the best WR of his generation (that would be AB, who has twice as many first-team All-Pro selections).

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Wait wait wait. At no point did I say: "when a WR reaches 30 suddenly he loses all capability and he can't catch a cold anymore" - obviously guys like Julio and AB are still insanely good receivers. Look at Larry Fitzgerald who at age 56 or whatever he is now still does his magic.

What we are talking about is a statistical analysis: on average, the 30yo receiver will be slightly worse than his 29yo season. Maybe 5-10%.

On average. Don't confuse statistics with crystal ball predictions, that's not what I'm trying to do.

(And I think you know that, just want to make sure everyone understands.)

 

 

Agreed.  But usually the great WRs prove to be the exception.  And yes Julio is great, even though he's not a top-10 all-time WR. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, joshua18 said:

 

Julio is not top-10 all time.   He's not even the best WR of his generation (that would be AB, who has twice as many first-team All-Pro selections).

 

I wouldn't argue it one way or the other. I think some people might say he's already there and some would say he isn't...and both could show stats claiming why they're right.

What I would state is that barring injury (which is of course a big if), that Julio will be regarded by most people as a Top 10 WR by the end of his career. And that's why I think he's interesting to look at compared next to other elites. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

45 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

 

Wait wait wait. At no point did I say: "when a WR reaches 30 suddenly he loses all capability and he can't catch a cold anymore" - obviously guys like Julio and AB are still insanely good receivers. Look at Larry Fitzgerald who at age 56 or whatever he is now still does his magic.

What we are talking about is a statistical analysis: on average, the 30yo receiver will be slightly worse than his 29yo season. Maybe 5-10%.

On average. Don't confuse statistics with crystal ball predictions, that's not what I'm trying to do.

(And I think you know that, just want to make sure everyone understands.)

 

Yup, never claimed otherwise and I was looking at a different aspect of the age 30 topic :) 

Edited by Corleone
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...