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Julio Jones 2019 Outlook


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On 8/16/2019 at 4:12 AM, Boudewijn said:

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average.

image.png.b8acf74977cb4d809a9a83f9bf3963e5.png

This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put everything in an excel sheet and crunched some data. I found 400 receivers with multiple seasons in the data, and base my numbers on this. I looked at the peak of their numbers, but also at the yearly increase/decrease. Eg Antonio Brown had his "peak age" at age 27 (1800 yards); the season after is marked as "decrease" (1293) but the season after that he improvedd again (1533 at age 29). I took all these peaks and all these percentage increases, and sliced and diced them in a number of ways. 

The chart above is a result of that. The line is the number of receivers for each age group. The numbers are highest around 25, because receivers that start to decline after that age, are generally dumped unceremoniously. If you're 24 you can get another chance after a couple bad seasons, but at 28, that's rare (and of course, career ending injuries are a factor.

The bars are the number of receivers that improved or decreased their yardage (or stayed within +/- 10%) compared to the previous season. The numbers don't add up to the full total for the same age group, because players sometimes miss a season, or dip so far below.

So now, you can see that at age 32, the yellow bar (decrease) is clearly larger than the green bar (improved). For other age groups it's not that clear, so let's take the same data in a slightly different graph:

image.png.9e0b8a753352f94211023812b27feaf3.png

Now it's easier to compare the green (improve) and yellow (decrease) bars. 

- Until age 25 the green bar is clearly larger, so we can say that 25-yo receivers generally improve over their age 24 season

- after age 28 the yellow bar is consistently larger than the green bar, so 28-yo receivers generally decrease.

I've done this a number of times, with different groups of data, and each time I reached similar conclusions. WRs decline on average WELL before their 30th birthday. Yes, the best can stay on a high level for a long time, but that's not the argument. If you say "the decline for WRs doesn’t really hit until age 32", I say "I think it's earlier".

 

Can you summarize this data with just elite receivers? 

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With Julio at 30 years old and the age topic being discussed in the thread, here is another set of data to consider (or not, as that's up to each person)... I looked up the top 75 in career receivi

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average. This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put ever

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8 hours ago, KidDynamite420 said:

Hm.. I got my data from a homeless guy outside an abandoned K-Mart. To be more specific, I should’ve said a decline into fantasy irrelevance which I think your graph shows. Still, you can see some of the game’s elite all time receivers having excellent seasons at age 30+. The graph is certainly helpful but when you’re dealing with outliers of talent you tend to get outliers in results.

 

This...might want to do a weighted average and show some mins and maxes...weed out the chafe from the data.  You can eliminate like 95% of WRs over the past 10 years.  

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6 hours ago, Boudewijn said:

 

How about this graph:

image.png.c1dc7f31c74963c9e7fffab24b4a1961.png

This shows the top 100, the next 100, and then 300-400. You see that in fact the effect is most noticeable in the elite receivers.

The same chart for rushing data:

image.png.9dabe318f636607847d09d9010396ca3.png

 

You see that near the right end of the chart, there is very little data left, so the chart becomes a bit more ragged. But I think the overall conclusion is clear. 

@UcanTry @KidDynamite420 I'll come back to your link later.

 

Boom!  This is good s---.  It will be interesting to see how this trend plays out over the next five to ten years.  Obviously there is going to be a point in time where athletes all decline - I mean, this graph is basically highlighting the average American's decline in physical ability (except for me, my snapshot is actually much better now than it was when I was playing D1 hockey).  Anywho...with all the advancements in health related s---....TB12 pliability...I can see this trend just shifting out a few years.  Love it!

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1 minute ago, Ryansm11 said:

That’s like 200+ catches 2800+ yards and 16-20 touchdowns. Solid first picks. 

 

Totally against my draft philosophy but if I am not drafting within the first three picks...this might be the course of action I take.  Then I go Kittle in the third if I can and go bucks wild with RBs after that

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2 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

Totally against my draft philosophy but if I am not drafting within the first three picks...this might be the course of action I take.  Then I go Kittle in the third if I can and go bucks wild with RBs after that

I've got 12 and have tried the Kittle route at 3/4, after going WR/WR. I don't love it....the rb's at 3/4 are nice and either of Engram or Howard are usually there at 5/6.

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On 8/16/2019 at 5:12 AM, Boudewijn said:

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average.

image.png.b8acf74977cb4d809a9a83f9bf3963e5.png

This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put everything in an excel sheet and crunched some data. I found 400 receivers with multiple seasons in the data, and base my numbers on this. I looked at the peak of their numbers, but also at the yearly increase/decrease. Eg Antonio Brown had his "peak age" at age 27 (1800 yards); the season after is marked as "decrease" (1293) but the season after that he improvedd again (1533 at age 29). I took all these peaks and all these percentage increases, and sliced and diced them in a number of ways. 

The chart above is a result of that. The line is the number of receivers for each age group. The numbers are highest around 25, because receivers that start to decline after that age, are generally dumped unceremoniously. If you're 24 you can get another chance after a couple bad seasons, but at 28, that's rare (and of course, career ending injuries are a factor.

The bars are the number of receivers that improved or decreased their yardage (or stayed within +/- 10%) compared to the previous season. The numbers don't add up to the full total for the same age group, because players sometimes miss a season, or dip so far below.

So now, you can see that at age 32, the yellow bar (decrease) is clearly larger than the green bar (improved). For other age groups it's not that clear, so let's take the same data in a slightly different graph:

image.png.9e0b8a753352f94211023812b27feaf3.png

Now it's easier to compare the green (improve) and yellow (decrease) bars. 

- Until age 25 the green bar is clearly larger, so we can say that 25-yo receivers generally improve over their age 24 season

- after age 28 the yellow bar is consistently larger than the green bar, so 28-yo receivers generally decrease.

I've done this a number of times, with different groups of data, and each time I reached similar conclusions. WRs decline on average WELL before their 30th birthday. Yes, the best can stay on a high level for a long time, but that's not the argument. If you say "the decline for WRs doesn’t really hit until age 32", I say "I think it's earlier".

One thing that may skew the data it how the rules have changes since 2000. Much easier game for the WRs these days.

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4 hours ago, this guy right here said:

One thing that may skew the data it how the rules have changes since 2000. Much easier game for the WRs these days.

Actually that's why I took data of only 2000 and later. I even started with the last 10 years, but I found I needed more data, so I included the whole 2000-2018 period. 

I wouldn't be surprised if 1980-2000 gives a slightly different view, but I think the peak of the curve will still be at 27 for receivers, as that is consistent with similar curves in other sports. 

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I was just wondering prior to my draft if the 30 year old with occasional foot issues, is ready for another year. It happens to every player eventually. Hopefully if you draft him, he can play 16 games.

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NEWS ARTICLES > JULIO JONES: PRACTICING, CONTRACT TALKS WEAR ON
PUBLISHED MON SEP 2 4:15:57 P.M. CT 2019  
(RotoWire) Jones (foot) participated in the Falcons' first regular-season practice Monday, D. Orlando Ledbetter of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.

Analysis: Just as head coach Dan Quinn promised last Monday, Jones saw his practice activity ramp up to start this week, and it's encouraging to see him running routes at full speed after being a limited participant for much of training camp due to a foot issue. Quinn had no updates to provide on the status of Jones's desired contract extension Monday. The two-time All-Pro receiver's deal currently carries an annual value of $14.3 million, after he was awarded a $2.9 million pay bump last July. The unresolved contract talks are not widely perceived to endanger his Week 1 availability for the matchup against Minnesota, though ESPN reporter Vaughn McClure did voice concern that without a new deal, he doesn't see Jones playing against the Vikings.

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5 minutes ago, Heizz said:

What are our expectations this year?

 

Drafting shortly at the 10 slot, and planning to go WR-WR. Julio is at the top of my list right now, but Ridley does cause some concern.

I grabbed him 8/12 after Adams/Hopkins. I may have taken him over Adams if I had the option. I think Julio is finally able to combine yards & TDs this year now that he's back with Dirk. I'm expecting a top 5 finish with a legitimate run at wr1

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13 minutes ago, Heizz said:

What are our expectations this year?

 

Drafting shortly at the 10 slot, and planning to go WR-WR. Julio is at the top of my list right now, but Ridley does cause some concern.

I stacked him with Matt Ryan. I got him 2/2 after going RB with my first pick. There was a run on RBs. Adams and DHop were gone so it was an easy choice. The fact that the Falcons play indoors for most of the year, I am really excited. Weather won't be a factor with this team. I'm not too sure why you are worried about Ridley. Julio gets the most targets and then it is Sanu that hurts Ridley. Hooper has proven reliable too. With Freeman back, I think things will open up even more and this is great for Julio. He does get doubled a lot, but teams usually do ease off once they get torched a bit by the other weapons. Just look at what Julio did last year and he should be even better this year with a healthy team.

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picked him at the turn at 12. I think i've owned Julio every year since the 2015 season and i think this is the most hyped i've been owning him 

pretty much guaranteed 1400 yards out of him this year, and 13/15 fantasy relevant weeks are indoors to boot.

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I thought this stat was interesting:

Matt Ryan has averaged an additional 0.7 yards per attempt indoors vs. outdoors in his career, setting up the entire Falcons’ pass offense for success in a season that will have Atlanta playing 13 (!!!) games inside.”

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5 minutes ago, y2jbones said:

I thought this stat was interesting:

Matt Ryan has averaged an additional 0.7 yards per attempt indoors vs. outdoors in his career, setting up the entire Falcons’ pass offense for success in a season that will have Atlanta playing 13 (!!!) games inside.”

That's the only reason I selected him this year. Otherwise, I would have picked a QB up in the last round due to the parity between QBs after the Big 3. He has the potential to have one of the best seasons of his career. The only problem is the schedule. It isn't friendly. This hopefully sets up well for Julio. I think this may be one of the best stacks this season. I've seen some people saying Julio will regress from last season, but I'm not sure why.

Edited by FitzMagic
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