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Julio Jones 2019 Outlook


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There's no real way to say this without pissing people off.
I love Julio, there's no one you're trading him for, even if you wanted to, I wouldn't recommend it.

Yes, the TDs are a nice change, but... I'm not sure I feel overly confident in what I've seen so far this season.
Only 2 weeks in, so nothing matters yet, yadda yadda.

BUT...

6 for 31 in Week 1 was not inspiring.
4 for 54 in Week 2 was not inspiring.

If not for the 52 yard TD on the final drive last night, the outlook of this thread could be drastically different.
10 catches for 85 yards through 2 weeks, even with 2 TDs, is not what you hope for from Julio.
At that rate, you better pray he keeps getting TDs or we're in big trouble.  Sure, some big weeks will come, like always.

I'm not taking that play away from him, because that's the type of talent, speed, and skill he has, and can do that in any given week.

My point, is that when I evaluate a player, I'm not letting 1 single catch overshadow the other 1hr and 55 minutes of play we've seen from Julio and the Falcons so far this year.

Again, I'm not panicking, I'm not trading him away, but I'd be lying if I told you, I wasn't concerned with what I've seen so far.  My expectations are rather tempered moving forward.

Just to help illustrate my feeling.
Through the first 2 weeks(prior to OBJ playing tonight) Julio ranks 8th in targets, which is fine.
But only 20th in receptions, 30th in receiving yards, and despite the TDs, Julio only has 2 RZ targets so far.  (Antonio Brown in just 1 game, already has 5)
Yes, a 2 week sample size is too small, yes the week 1 game was not a good indicator of things to come... I'm just saying, as a fellow owner, I'm not getting blinded by these TDs.  The Falcons and Julio do not look the same to me this season.  Most likely it's nothing, but I do have some reservations.

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With Julio at 30 years old and the age topic being discussed in the thread, here is another set of data to consider (or not, as that's up to each person)... I looked up the top 75 in career receivi

I want to see your data - that's not what I see. I think WRs start declining at age 28, on average. This is based on 1500 "seasons" for receivers since 2000. I collected their data, put ever

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5 minutes ago, FFCollusion said:

There's no real way to say this without pissing people off.
I love Julio, there's no one you're trading him for, even if you wanted to, I wouldn't recommend it.

Yes, the TDs are a nice change, but... I'm not sure I feel overly confident in what I've seen so far this season.
Only 2 weeks in, so nothing matters yet, yadda yadda.

BUT...

6 for 31 in Week 1 was not inspiring.
4 for 54 in Week 2 was not inspiring.

If not for the 52 yard TD on the final drive last night, the outlook of this thread could be drastically different.
10 catches for 85 yards through 2 weeks, even with 2 TDs, is not what you hope for from Julio.
At that rate, you better pray he keeps getting TDs or we're in big trouble.  Sure, some big weeks will come, like always.

I'm not taking that play away from him, because that's the type of talent, speed, and skill he has, and can do that in any given week.

My point, is that when I evaluate a player, I'm not letting 1 single catch overshadow the other 1hr and 55 minutes of play we've seen from Julio and the Falcons so far this year.

Again, I'm not panicking, I'm not trading him away, but I'd be lying if I told you, I wasn't concerned with what I've seen so far.  My expectations are rather tempered moving forward.

Just to help illustrate my feeling.
Through the first 2 weeks(prior to OBJ playing tonight) Julio ranks 8th in targets, which is fine.
But only 20th in receptions, 30th in receiving yards, and despite the TDs, Julio only has 2 RZ targets so far.  (Antonio Brown in just 1 game, already has 5)
Yes, a 2 week sample size is too small, yes the week 1 game was not a good indicator of things to come... I'm just saying, as a fellow owner, I'm not getting blinded by these TDs.  The Falcons and Julio do not look the same to me this season.  Most likely it's nothing, but I do have some reservations.

 

The flip side to your first point is that Julio was wide open for a long touchdown against the Vikings and Ryan blew it. If that play gets made, are we feeling bad about week 1?

I do get what you are saying. Julio looks great to me still, but Ryan concerns me. 

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Julio will be just fine. Ryan always targets him a lot. The Eagles constantly double teamed him and you could see Ryan wanted to throw to him but couldn’t. I just wish the Falcons would move him around the formation. He is almost unstoppable when they put him in motion or in the slot when he gets a free release on the line of scrimmage.

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6 hours ago, FFCollusion said:

Through the first 2 weeks(prior to OBJ playing tonight) Julio ranks 8th in targets, which is fine.
But only 20th in receptions, 30th in receiving yards, and despite the TDs, Julio only has 2 RZ targets so far.  (Antonio Brown in just 1 game, already has 5)
Yes, a 2 week sample size is too small, yes the week 1 game was not a good indicator of things to come... I'm just saying, as a fellow owner, I'm not getting blinded by these TDs.  The Falcons and Julio do not look the same to me this season.  Most likely it's nothing, but I do have some reservations.

Fair comment, but of those metrics - targets, receptions, receiving yards - the big one is the targets. They're still there. They will continue to be there. You could argue last year he was hyper-efficient with yards and no so much with TD's. This year so far, the TD's are bailing out his value. But the targets remain, with a QB he is familiar with, in an offense that has four "get-right" games in a row: Colts, Titans, Texans, (cornerless) Arizona. If that week 6 game does not go absolutely nuts I will concede all my further posts and donate my left kidney for medical research.

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Think there is a decent chance Julio finishes the season as the WR1. Falcons defense is back to being weak, which means they will be throwing a lot. Julio is clearly the main option and is getting plenty of looks in the red zone. Another nice matchup next week.

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Davante was my WR1 last year. I missed on adams this year so had to "settle" for Julio. You all can thank me later. Julio may be the safest choice to finish as THE WR1 right now. 

Sanu and ridley are both playing really well right now too. That's got to be helping Julio, especially in the redzone

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6 hours ago, Neauxls said:

Davante was my WR1 last year. I missed on adams this year so had to "settle" for Julio. You all can thank me later. Julio may be the safest choice to finish as THE WR1 right now. 

Sanu and ridley are both playing really well right now too. That's got to be helping Julio, especially in the redzone

Austin hooper in the endzone as well, but Julio's been getting  double teamed for years, he's just that good. Thank God Sarkisian isnt OC anymore.

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24 minutes ago, LionKid90 said:

I’m shocked this guy didn’t put up more yards in garbage time. Atlanta trailed by nearly two TDs for most of the game, would have thought he would get some soft coverages, especially late in the game.

 

Matt Ryan is awful. Kept throwing 5 feet over Julio’s head. Titans were giving up everything underneath up big to Hooper and Freeman and Ryan was fine to pad his yardage numbers by dunking a dunking down the field late in the game. Shocking this guy has won an MVP.

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8 hours ago, jsch08 said:

 

Matt Ryan is awful. Kept throwing 5 feet over Julio’s head. Titans were giving up everything underneath up big to Hooper and Freeman and Ryan was fine to pad his yardage numbers by dunking a dunking down the field late in the game. Shocking this guy has won an MVP.


I've been saying it for years and get ripped everytime. Ryan might be the most overrated QB in the league. 

You put a guy like Stafford on that team and they would've won a superbowl by now. 

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I think Ryan is awful when he has to move his feet in the pocket.  In order for him to deliver a good throw he needs to have a nice cozy pocket.. unfortunately I think his pocket awareness is pretty poopy as well.  Guy just puts up huge yardage numbers every year because he constantly plays from behind and has freak receivers to bail him out. He's rapidly falling down my list of QBs in this league.  I think hes on the top 15-20 fringe.  Imagine if Julio had a QB that could buy him some more time to get open downfield.

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1 minute ago, richiec26 said:

I think Ryan is awful when he has to move his feet in the pocket.  In order for him to deliver a good throw he needs to have a nice cozy pocket.. unfortunately I think his pocket awareness is pretty poopy as well.  Guy just puts up huge yardage numbers every year because he constantly plays from behind and has freak receivers to bail him out. He's rapidly falling down my list of QBs in this league.  I think hes on the top 15-20 fringe.  Imagine if Julio had a QB that could buy him some more time to get open downfield.

 

With the extension we will never get to find out how that would look. Julio probably retires as a Falcon with Matt Ryan still the QB 😟

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3 hours ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

I'd force feed him 10 targets a game.

 

13 targets for Austin hooper last week. Flacons lose.

 

I see Mike mukarkey is having a profound affect thus far like he did during his time with the Titans.

Mike Mularkey is on the falcons staff? I thought Dirk Koetters dumb a** was calling the plays

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