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Odell Beckham Jr. 2019 Outlook


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I would not take this guy over thomas, juju, hopkins, adams, mike evans, Antonio brown if he is fully practicing, ty Hilton with luck, julio jones, or tyreek hill. 

He has too much competition for targets, on a new team/system, never stays healthy.

They have such a powder puff schedule and will not need to put up huge points to keep up as their def will lock down the teams they play. Look at their schedule the only teams i see that could force them to move away from running playing def are:

Steelers x2

Patriots- who some would argue will run more and not put up huge points.

Rams

The rest of the teams he playd are all terrible offenses besides the maybe 49ers:

Titans, jets, ravens, 49ers, seahawks, broncos, bills, dolphins, cardinals, ravens.

 

You guys are paying for last years stats.

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7 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I would not take this guy over thomas, juju, hopkins, adams, mike evans, Antonio brown if he is fully practicing, ty Hilton with luck, julio jones, or tyreek hill. 

He has too much competition for targets, on a new team/system, never stays healthy.

They have such a powder puff schedule and will not need to put up huge points to keep up as their def will lock down the teams they play. Look at their schedule the only teams i see that could force them to move away from running playing def are:

Steelers x2

Patriots- who some would argue will run more and not put up huge points.

Rams

The rest of the teams he playd are all terrible offenses besides the maybe 49ers:

Titans, jets, ravens, 49ers, seahawks, broncos, bills, dolphins, cardinals, ravens.

 

You guys are paying for last years stats.

Friends don't let friends post on rotoworld while drunk...

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8 hours ago, nmartinez12443 said:

I would not take this guy over thomas, juju, hopkins, adams, mike evans, Antonio brown if he is fully practicing, ty Hilton with luck, julio jones, or tyreek hill. 

He has too much competition for targets, on a new team/system, never stays healthy.

They have such a powder puff schedule and will not need to put up huge points to keep up as their def will lock down the teams they play. Look at their schedule the only teams i see that could force them to move away from running playing def are:

Steelers x2

Patriots- who some would argue will run more and not put up huge points.

Rams

The rest of the teams he playd are all terrible offenses besides the maybe 49ers:

Titans, jets, ravens, 49ers, seahawks, broncos, bills, dolphins, cardinals, ravens.

 

You guys are paying for last years stats.

 

Thomas, Adams, Nuke, Julio, Hill and OBJ are in my top 6. I personally would take Adams and Nuke ahead of everyone, after that IMO its personally preference 

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I hate the too many mouths to feed argument, I think Shepard engram and saquon who ended the year with 90 catches isn't that far off from Landry njoku and chubb who who's projected for 40 catches in terms of targets. The new qb/new system argument is another fallacy, does nobody remember Brandon Marshall upgrading to jay cutler? Terrell Owen's upgrading to McNabb? Randy moss joining the Patriots and breaking the touch down record? Bottom line is odell has been a consistent elite points per game producer who's playing with a better quarter back. His floor barring Injury is WR6  with WR1 upside assuming he avoids another freak injury. Draft him late first early second with confidence.

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12 hours ago, jay2491 said:

I hate the too many mouths to feed argument, I think Shepard engram and saquon who ended the year with 90 catches isn't that far off from Landry njoku and chubb who who's projected for 40 catches in terms of targets. The new qb/new system argument is another fallacy, does nobody remember Brandon Marshall upgrading to jay cutler? Terrell Owen's upgrading to McNabb? Randy moss joining the Patriots and breaking the touch down record? Bottom line is odell has been a consistent elite points per game producer who's playing with a better quarter back. His floor barring Injury is WR6  with WR1 upside assuming he avoids another freak injury. Draft him late first early second with confidence.

Id just add that i think id prefer mayfield QBing over manning at this point

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Odell Beckham is not concerned about his hip injury.

Essentially confirming an earlier Cleveland Plain Dealer report, Beckham intimated Thursday that he would be playing were it the regular season. He is expected to sit out Saturday's preseason game. There is zero reason to be concerned about Beckham's Week 1 status.

 

-Nice to hear, but being in the 12th spot, 1 ppr, I'm having a really hard time deciding on who to leave out between Odell, Tyreek & Juju.

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19 minutes ago, Mr.Joshua said:

Odell Beckham is not concerned about his hip injury.

Essentially confirming an earlier Cleveland Plain Dealer report, Beckham intimated Thursday that he would be playing were it the regular season. He is expected to sit out Saturday's preseason game. There is zero reason to be concerned about Beckham's Week 1 status.

 

-Nice to hear, but being in the 12th spot, 1 ppr, I'm having a really hard time deciding on who to leave out between Odell, Tyreek & Juju.

Officer Murtaugh!  Don’t be foolish.  Look at the hardware!

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On 8/14/2019 at 1:14 AM, nmartinez12443 said:

I would not take this guy over thomas, juju, hopkins, adams, mike evans, Antonio brown if he is fully practicing, ty Hilton with luck, julio jones, or tyreek hill. 

He has too much competition for targets, on a new team/system, never stays healthy.

They have such a powder puff schedule and will not need to put up huge points to keep up as their def will lock down the teams they play. Look at their schedule the only teams i see that could force them to move away from running playing def are:

Steelers x2

Patriots- who some would argue will run more and not put up huge points.

Rams

The rest of the teams he playd are all terrible offenses besides the maybe 49ers:

Titans, jets, ravens, 49ers, seahawks, broncos, bills, dolphins, cardinals, ravens.

 

You guys are paying for last years stats.

 

 

JuJu is the only guy I take over ODB

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If you think OBJ is going to stay healthy all season, then you could be looking at about 11 games in which he either scores a touchdown OR gets at least 100 yards receiving. Why do I say that? Well, in his career, he's scored a TD or had at least 100 yards in 40 of 59 games (67.8%).

--2014: 9 of 12 games
--2015: 11 of 15 games
--2016: 10 of 16 games
--2017: 2 of 4 games
--2018: 8 of 12 games

That was all of course with the Giants and a diminishing Eli Manning. 
Now of the 19 games he didn't get a TD or 100, that doesn't mean it was a bust game either. Some of the 19 were 90 yard efforts for example. Overall though, if you can get a TD or 100, you usually have helped provide good fantasy production (barring those 1 catch, 1 yard, 1 TD days) :)

Some WR's have been better than 67.8% across a single season or two. But to be at that rate for an entire career is impressive. Of course, it would be even more impressive if OBJ hadn't missed 21 games over that 5-year stretch.

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1 hour ago, Corleone said:

If you think OBJ is going to stay healthy all season, then you could be looking at about 11 games in which he either scores a touchdown OR gets at least 100 yards receiving. Why do I say that? Well, in his career, he's scored a TD or had at least 100 yards in 40 of 59 games (67.8%).

--2014: 9 of 12 games
--2015: 11 of 15 games
--2016: 10 of 16 games
--2017: 2 of 4 games
--2018: 8 of 12 games

That was all of course with the Giants and a diminishing Eli Manning. 
Now of the 19 games he didn't get a TD or 100, that doesn't mean it was a bust game either. Some of the 19 were 90 yard efforts for example. Overall though, if you can get a TD or 100, you usually have helped provide good fantasy production (barring those 1 catch, 1 yard, 1 TD days) :)

Some WR's have been better than 67.8% across a single season or two. But to be at that rate for an entire career is impressive. Of course, it would be even more impressive if OBJ hadn't missed 21 games over that 5-year stretch.

You are right we should assume that he will continue to do exactly the same when 

1. He has a completely new team/offensive coordinator.

2. Has a qb he needs to build chemistry with.

3. 2019 browns def which will be good playing imo the easiest schedule in the nfl (no shoot outs). 

4. He has much more competition for targets with way better receiving options landry, njoku, higgins, and Callaway. 

5. Hes already hurt.

 

Let me say that I am somewhat playing devils advocate and personally I draft at #2 overall so I wont get him. However him being a top 10 pick and assume hes gonna be exactly the same player for me is a risk. Especially over guys with little to no risk like: Thomas, JuJu, Julio Jones, Evans, Allen, ty WITH luck. 

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30 minutes ago, nmartinez12443 said:

You are right we should assume that he will continue to do exactly the same when 

1. He has a completely new team/offensive coordinator.

2. Has a qb he needs to build chemistry with.

3. 2019 browns def which will be good playing imo the easiest schedule in the nfl (no shoot outs). 

4. He has much more competition for targets with way better receiving options landry, njoku, higgins, and Callaway. 

5. Hes already hurt.

 

Let me say that I am somewhat playing devils advocate and personally I draft at #2 overall so I wont get him. However him being a top 10 pick and assume hes gonna be exactly the same player for me is a risk. Especially over guys with little to no risk like: Thomas, JuJu, Julio Jones, Evans, Allen, ty WITH luck. 

Except I never said he will continue to do exactly the same.
And I specifically referenced all of those prior stats coming with a new team.
By the way, since you think he has little to no risk, go ahead and draft Allen with one of your top picks.

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7 hours ago, Corleone said:

If you think OBJ is going to stay healthy all season, then you could be looking at about 11 games in which he either scores a touchdown OR gets at least 100 yards receiving. Why do I say that? Well, in his career, he's scored a TD or had at least 100 yards in 40 of 59 games (67.8%).

--2014: 9 of 12 games
--2015: 11 of 15 games
--2016: 10 of 16 games
--2017: 2 of 4 games
--2018: 8 of 12 games

That was all of course with the Giants and a diminishing Eli Manning. 
Now of the 19 games he didn't get a TD or 100, that doesn't mean it was a bust game either. Some of the 19 were 90 yard efforts for example. Overall though, if you can get a TD or 100, you usually have helped provide good fantasy production (barring those 1 catch, 1 yard, 1 TD days) :)

Some WR's have been better than 67.8% across a single season or two. But to be at that rate for an entire career is impressive. Of course, it would be even more impressive if OBJ hadn't missed 21 games over that 5-year stretch.

 

Injuries:

I feel like Eli continually gets dragged in these discussions. OBJ was on "best ever WR" pace and "HOF pace" not because he was throwing himself the ball. It was because Eli was force feeding him the ball, to at some times his detriment. The reason OBJ numbers have fell off is not because of Eli Manning, it's because OBJ cant stay on the field and that's a concern. Not only that, in two of his five seasons, he has nursed injuries that some have questioned his willingness to play. Both in his rookie season (quad/hammy) and in 2018 (quad), people around the Giants felt that he could've came back sooner, but he is a guy who has stated that he wants to be 100% before he returns. Nothing is wrong with that, but when you start to see injuries piling up, fantasy owners should be a bit cautious. There seems to be an "injury timetable" and an "Odell injury timetable" which is why this "hip pointer" should be at least some concern.

 

Will the go to guy please stand up:

Odell has played with Andre Williams, Rashard Jennings, Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman with an offensive line that was absolutely brutal for much of his time in NY. I'll have to see how many games him, Shep and Engam played together, They never seemed to be on the field at the same time for long stretches. The Giants needed every thing OBJ had and it produced world beating results. However, The Browns have a viable o-line with a top 10 back. The Browns have a mobile QB and the Browns have a superior receiving corp. Fantasy owners fast to get Odell far away from Eli may be disappointed. There will be a lot more balance of the Cleveland offense that stats cant tell us just yet. 

 

On 8/15/2019 at 7:02 PM, Mr.Joshua said:

Odell Beckham is not concerned about his hip injury.

Essentially confirming an earlier Cleveland Plain Dealer report, Beckham intimated Thursday that he would be playing were it the regular season. He is expected to sit out Saturday's preseason game. There is zero reason to be concerned about Beckham's Week 1 status.

 

-Nice to hear, but being in the 12th spot, 1 ppr, I'm having a really hard time deciding on who to leave out between Odell, Tyreek & Juju.

 

With ALL of that being said above, I would DEFINITELY take Hill AND Juju over OBJ.

Edited by nonstopfan
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39 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Injuries:

I feel like Eli continually gets dragged in these discussions. OBJ was on "best ever WR" pace and "HOF pace" not because he was throwing himself the ball. It was because Eli was force feeding him the ball, to at some times his detriment. The reason OBJ numbers have fell off is not because of Eli Manning, it's because OBJ cant stay on the field and that's a concern. Not only that, in two of his five seasons, he has nursed injuries that some have questioned his willingness to play. Both in his rookie season (quad/hammy) and in 2018 (quad), people around the Giants felt that he could've came back sooner, but he is a guy who has stated that he wants to be 100% before he returns. Nothing is wrong with that, but when you start to see injuries piling up, fantasy owners should be a bit cautious. There seems to be an "injury timetable" and an "Odell injury timetable" which is why this "hip pointer" should be at least some concern.

 

Will the go to guy please stand up:

Odell has played with Andre Williams, Rashard Jennings, Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman with an offensive line that was absolutely brutal for much of his time in NY. I'll have to see how many games him, Shep and Engam played together, They never seemed to be on the field at the same time for long stretches. The Giants needed every thing OBJ had and it produced world beating results. However, The Browns have a viable o-line with a top 10 back. The Browns have a mobile QB and the Browns have a superior receiving corp. Fantasy owners fast to get Odell far away from Eli may be disappointed. There will be a lot more balance of the Cleveland offense that stats cant tell us just yet. 

 

 

With ALL of that being said above, I would DEFINITELY take Hill AND Juju over OBJ.

Of the 3 wr's that you mentioned, I would take JuJu at that spot as he seems like the safest bet.

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48 minutes ago, nonstopfan said:

 

Injuries:

I feel like Eli continually gets dragged in these discussions. OBJ was on "best ever WR" pace and "HOF pace" not because he was throwing himself the ball. It was because Eli was force feeding him the ball, to at some times his detriment. The reason OBJ numbers have fell off is not because of Eli Manning, it's because OBJ cant stay on the field and that's a concern. Not only that, in two of his five seasons, he has nursed injuries that some have questioned his willingness to play. Both in his rookie season (quad/hammy) and in 2018 (quad), people around the Giants felt that he could've came back sooner, but he is a guy who has stated that he wants to be 100% before he returns. Nothing is wrong with that, but when you start to see injuries piling up, fantasy owners should be a bit cautious. There seems to be an "injury timetable" and an "Odell injury timetable" which is why this "hip pointer" should be at least some concern.

 

Will the go to guy please stand up:

Odell has played with Andre Williams, Rashard Jennings, Paul Perkins, Orleans Darkwa and Wayne Gallman with an offensive line that was absolutely brutal for much of his time in NY. I'll have to see how many games him, Shep and Engam played together, They never seemed to be on the field at the same time for long stretches. The Giants needed every thing OBJ had and it produced world beating results. However, The Browns have a viable o-line with a top 10 back. The Browns have a mobile QB and the Browns have a superior receiving corp. Fantasy owners fast to get Odell far away from Eli may be disappointed. There will be a lot more balance of the Cleveland offense that stats cant tell us just yet. 

 

 

With ALL of that being said above, I would DEFINITELY take Hill AND Juju over OBJ.

I do agree with several of these points. Eli did force feed him the ball...though with that said, there were MANY passes in which a better QB would have been able to hit an open OBJ. So while OBJ did get his, one has to wonder how much better he would have done with someone better than Eli over the last few seasons. With that also said, OBJ did have less competition for targets on the Giants as you mention, as the "talent" around him was questionable. 

And I agree as far as his injuries as well, as that was a point I wanted to make clear in terms of how often he has missed time. The way you put it in terms of him not returning to the field is valid.

When it's all said and done, I think he will be able to produce at a very high level with Mayfield and the Browns...if he stays on the field. 

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Wait- are people really trying to argue that expectations for Beckham should be lowered now that he has a much better QB, on a much better team, that should score a lot more points, with other good receiving weapons to take some of the defensive focus off of him? 

I’ll gladly trade a handful of worthless, poorly thrown targets for a few high quality targets that hit him in stride. 

Edited by Lamont Sanford
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16 minutes ago, Lamont Sanford said:

Wait- are people really trying to argue that expectations for Beckham should be lowered now that he has a much better QB, on a much better team, that should score a lot more points, with other good receiving weapons to take some of the defensive focus off of him? 

I’ll gladly trade a handful of worthless, poorly thrown targets for a few high quality targets that hit him in stride. 

Show me the games where his team is going to be forced to score lots of points to keep up.

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The Browns play in the NFL which is an extremely difficult and competitive league. They will be looking to score basically all the time. NFL is hard and teams wants to score 99% on all of their plays.

If anyone thinks that they can easily and reliable pro-actively predict how the games on their schedule will shake out from a game flow perspective you are 100% delusional. I also recommend to quit your day job and bet on NFL games heavily, but I wish you good luck.

Saying in August that Beckham won't get targets or looks because his team has an easy schedule is comical at best.

The only way Beckham won't be on the field when they are trying to score a TD 99% of the time is when they are up 38-7 with 5 minutes left. And at that point I'd wager Beckham got his already.

 

I dont know where people come up with this stuff.

 

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19 minutes ago, roadawg said:

The Browns play in the NFL which is an extremely difficult and competitive league. They will be looking to score basically all the time. NFL is hard and teams wants to score 99% on all of their plays.

If anyone thinks that they can easily and reliable pro-actively predict how the games on their schedule will shake out from a game flow perspective you are 100% delusional. I also recommend to quit your day job and bet on NFL games heavily, but I wish you good luck.

Saying in August that Beckham won't get targets or looks because his team has an easy schedule is comical at best.

The only way Beckham won't be on the field when they are trying to score a TD 99% of the time is when they are up 38-7 with 5 minutes left. And at that point I'd wager Beckham got his already.

 

I dont know where people come up with this stuff.

 

But you forget, the Browns have a great history of destroying opponents and finishing over .500 on a regular basis, including last season. Er, wait a minute...

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