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Tarik Cohen 2019 Outlook


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2 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Flex on  your team but finished as an RB1 in 12 team PPR

Yes and that was last season and the same process still applies.  I didnt even draft him last season because of the uncertainty of his use,  I plucked him off the waiver week 3 after he was dropped by an unhappy owner. 

You keep stating where he finished rank wise last season, which is irrelevant to me because I focus on players for this season. I wouldnt draft cohen as a rb2 this season, he would still be a flex for me. i dont have any insight into how Nagy is going to use his backfield of cohen-davis-montgomery-mizell because he is a HC that demonstrated last season he favors the mismatch and unpredicatble play calling; mizeel was getting significant touches end of last season which no one saw coming. 

So you are welcome to drafting cohen as your rb1/2 in ppr based on what he did last season. i'll stick to valuing him as  rb3 flex with upside until I see other developments👁️

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Now here's an idea I can get behind.

Alright, so.......after we all draft Cohen, can we rent some billboards near their practice facility with this message?   

He's no James Harden    

1 hour ago, dashoe said:

Good for you. . .🤣

It's not a premise, it's a process I use to draft my teams,  less than 10 touches as an rb makes you a flex on my team which he was and performed admirably  👀

and i'm glad you made that last comment about if you are told cohen gets 8-10 touches in any given week. . . because the rub is you dont know if he will get 8-10 consistently because he hasnt; his range is 5-22 and is unpredictable.  So you basically supported the point I made regarding the inability to predict his week to week touches. 🤓

It's a stupid process. Cohen was the 13th most consistent fantasy RB last season. Any way you look at it, Cohen is a high end RB2, despite the lower volume. 

 

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/consistency2018/final-fantasy-football-consistency-ratings-2018#RB

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43 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

It's a stupid process. Cohen was the 13th most consistent fantasy RB last season. Any way you look at it, Cohen is a high end RB2, despite the lower volume. 

 

http://www.espn.com/fantasy/football/story/_/page/consistency2018/final-fantasy-football-consistency-ratings-2018#RB

 

Ok dude, you have your process and I have mine and you keep stating what he was ranked end of season as if that tells me everyhing I need to know about valuing him this season because players always repeat their previous years performance correct?🤣

Regardless of your very impassioned  view and highly analytical process of his rank last season and 'if anyone will tell you he can get 8-10 touches on any given  week',  i'm not drafting him as my  rb2 and you can have him higher on your board if you want🤓

Oh wait he was a top 12 ppr rb and you say he is a high end rb2 yet the consensus according to the "crowd" or 'herd" as i like to call them at FFC has him as a back end rb2  at #21 for ppr, thats not considered a high end rb2. . .🤓

19 4.02 Mark Ingram RB BAL 8 38.0 4.8 1.12 4.11 154
20 4.03 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 9 38.7 4.0 3.01 4.12 213
21 4.05 Tarik Cohen RB CHI 6 41.5 4.0 3.04 5.05 154
22 4.06 Phillip Lindsay RB DEN 10 41.6 4.3 2.11 5.04 210
23 4.09 Kerryon Johnson RB DET 5 45.4 4.7 3.04 5.10 139
24 4.11 Chris Carson
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5 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Ok dude, you have your process and I have mine and you keep stating what he was ranked end of season as if that tells me everyhing I need to know about valuing him this season because players always repeat their previous years performance correct?🤣

Regardless of your very impassioned  view and highly analytical process of his rank last season and 'if anyone will tell you he can get 8-10 touches on any given  week',  i'm not drafting him as my  rb2 and you can have him higher on your board if you want🤓

Oh wait he was a top 12 ppr rb and you say he is a high end rb2 yet the consensus according to the "crowd" or 'herd" as i like to call them at FFC has him as a back end rb2  at #21 for ppr, thats not considered a high end rb2. . .🤓

19 4.02 Mark Ingram RB BAL 8 38.0 4.8 1.12 4.11 154  
20 4.03 Devonta Freeman RB ATL 9 38.7 4.0 3.01 4.12 213  
21 4.05 Tarik Cohen RB CHI 6 41.5 4.0 3.04 5.05 154  
22 4.06 Phillip Lindsay RB DEN 10 41.6 4.3 2.11 5.04 210  
23 4.09 Kerryon Johnson RB DET 5 45.4 4.7 3.04 5.10 139  
24 4.11 Chris Carson

You're making two different points. Is Cohen inconsistent, or is his ceiling capped? If you want to argue the latter, then yeah, I agree. Someone is drafting Freeman ahead of Cohen because he has the potential to be an elite RB1, not because he's going to be more consistent RB2 than Cohen. 

 

Cohen is a rock solid, reliable RB2, in PPR leagues. He's not going to be drafted ahead of guys who have the potential to be high end RB1s. 

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12 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

You're making two different points. Is Cohen inconsistent, or is his ceiling capped? If you want to argue the latter, then yeah, I agree. Someone is drafting Freeman ahead of Cohen because he has the potential to be an elite RB1, not because he's going to be more consistent RB2 than Cohen. 

 

Cohen is a rock solid, reliable RB2, in PPR leagues. He's not going to be drafted ahead of guys who have the potential to be high end RB1s. 

 

Actually it seems you have confused yourself in this thread.  I never stated he was inconsistent as a playmaker or his ceiling was capped. I stated his touches were unpredictable week to week with a distribution of 5-22 which makes him unreliable. I draft based on potential touches and utilization  and situation not last years production and ranking. 

I'm not drafting a rb1/rb2 based on the randomness of 5-22 touches and too many games where he was under 10 touches, let someone else take that volatility. 👀 

Sold to you😂

 

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15 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

Actually it seems you have confused yourself in this thread.  I never stated he was inconsistent as a playmaker or his ceiling was capped. I stated his touches were unpredictable week to week with a distribution of 5-22 which makes him unreliable. I draft based on potential touches and utilization  and situation not last years production and ranking. 

I'm not drafting a rb1/rb2 based on the randomness of 5-22 touches and too many games where he was under 10 touches, let someone else take that volatility. 👀 

Sold to you😂

 

Okay, so again, you're just factually wrong. I'm not actually sure his touches are inconsistent, but even if that's true, his fantasy production is NOT inconsistent. I already linked you to consistency rankings that showed he's one of the more consistent RBs in fantasy. You're either wrong about the link between fantasy production and touches, or wrong about how consistently Cohen gets touches. 

You can keep making the same incorrect point until you're blue in the face, it's still wrong. 

And I think we've reached agree to disagree territory. I've had to defend Cohen three offseasons in a row on this forum, so I know I'm never going to change the minds of the doubters.

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1 minute ago, ajs723 said:

Okay, so again, you're just factually wrong. I'm not actually sure his touches are inconsistent, but even if that's true, his fantasy production is NOT inconsistent. I already linked you to consistency rankings that showed he's one of the more consistent RBs in fantasy. You're either wrong about the link between fantasy production and touches, or wrong about how consistently Cohen gets touches. 

You can keep making the same incorrect point until you're blue in the face, it's still wrong. 

And I think we've reached agree to disagree territory. I've had to defend Cohen three offseasons in a row on this forum, so I know I'm never going to change the minds of the doubters.

 

yeah see once you state I am FACTUALLY WRONG  but you then admit you are NOT ACTUALLY SURE if his touches are inconsistent, which is my actual point and easily verifiable with a quick search, then you are admitting you actually are debating about a topic in which you very uninformed about and you are simply espousing a personal belief but nothing credible or worth  the effort of our engagement. 

So take care! 🤣

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Well, unfortunately my leagues do not score last year’s pts or consistency rankings.

Cohen owners/fans (myself included in the group) need to be honest with themselves and acknowledge that the bears added 2 rbs that are great between the tackles and have the ability to catch the football.

Cohen is great, but there’s no chance he can maintain the touches he received in ‘18 without an injury to the others.

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30 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

yeah see once you state I am FACTUALLY WRONG  but you then admit you are NOT ACTUALLY SURE if his touches are inconsistent, which is my actual point and easily verifiable with a quick search, then you are admitting you actually are debating about a topic in which you very uninformed about and you are simply espousing a personal belief but nothing credible or worth  the effort of our engagement. 

So take care! 🤣

Alright, you wanna do this. Let's do this.

 

Cohen averaged 10.6 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.3. 

Kenyan Drake averaged 10.8 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.2. 

Nyheim Hines averaged 9.3 touches per game with a standard deviation of 4.5

TJ Yeldon averaged 11.3 carries per game, with a standard deviation of 5.5

Tevin Coleman averaged 12.4 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 3.6.

Matt Breida averaged 12.7 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.8

Austin Ekeler averaged 10.3 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.8 

 

So, if you're argument is that his touches are too inconsistent for PPR RB2, you are indeed wrong. His numbers are right in line with where they should be, even on the more consistent side. 

 

More importantly, Cohen was THE MOST CONSISTENT FANTASY PRODUCER of any of those RBs (see the link I posted earlier). So even if you'd been right about his touches, which again you weren't, you'd still be reaching a false conclusion because his fantasy production was consistent.

 

I'll say it again, in PPR, Cohen is a quality RB2. If you think the additions of Montgomery and Davis are going to keep Cohen from reaching 10 touches per game in Nagy's offense, I suggest you look at how many touches Howard got last year. I'd also just generally question your knowledge of the NFL. 

  

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23 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Alright, you wanna do this. Let's do this.

 

Cohen averaged 10.6 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.3. 

Kenyan Drake averaged 10.8 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.2. 

Nyheim Hines averaged 9.3 touches per game with a standard deviation of 4.5

TJ Yeldon averaged 11.3 carries per game, with a standard deviation of 5.5

Tevin Coleman averaged 12.4 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 3.6.

Matt Breida averaged 12.7 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.8

Austin Ekeler averaged 10.3 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.8 

 

So, if you're argument is that his touches are too inconsistent for PPR RB2, you are indeed wrong. His numbers are right in line with where they should be, even on the more consistent side. 

 

More importantly, Cohen was THE MOST CONSISTENT FANTASY PRODUCER of any of those RBs (see the link I posted earlier). So even if you'd been right about his touches, which again you weren't, you'd still be reaching a false conclusion because his fantasy production was consistent.

 

I'll say it again, in PPR, Cohen is a quality RB2. If you think the additions of Montgomery and Davis are going to keep Cohen from reaching 10 touches per game in Nagy's offense, I suggest you look at how many touches Howard got last year. I'd also just generally question your knowledge of the NFL. 

  

You’re fighting for last year’s Cohen usage...save your breath.

At least for now...before the battered dynasty owner tag hits.

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3 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You’re fighting for last year’s Cohen usage...save your breath.

At least for now...before the battered dynasty owner tag hits.

So, why, pray tell, will his usage go down? You think Montgomery and Davis are going to significantly eclipse the nearly 20 touches per game the Bears got from Howard and Mizzell last year?

Keep doubting Cohen, I love seeing this tough little dude prove everyone wrong year after year.  

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32 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

Alright, you wanna do this. Let's do this.

 

Cohen averaged 10.6 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.3. 

Kenyan Drake averaged 10.8 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.2. 

Nyheim Hines averaged 9.3 touches per game with a standard deviation of 4.5

TJ Yeldon averaged 11.3 carries per game, with a standard deviation of 5.5

Tevin Coleman averaged 12.4 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 3.6.

Matt Breida averaged 12.7 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.8

Austin Ekeler averaged 10.3 touches per game, with a standard deviation of 4.8 

 

So, if you're argument is that his touches are too inconsistent for PPR RB2, you are indeed wrong. His numbers are right in line with where they should be, even on the more consistent side. 

 

More importantly, Cohen was THE MOST CONSISTENT FANTASY PRODUCER of any of those RBs (see the link I posted earlier). So even if you'd been right about his touches, which again you weren't, you'd still be reaching a false conclusion because his fantasy production was consistent.

 

I'll say it again, in PPR, Cohen is a quality RB2. If you think the additions of Montgomery and Davis are going to keep Cohen from reaching 10 touches per game in Nagy's offense, I suggest you look at how many touches Howard got last year. I'd also just generally question your knowledge of the NFL. 

  

What are WE doing? I think YOU are doing this ALONE and i am enjoying your 1 man show😂

Do you understand what the term DISTRIBUTION RANGE means? 🤪

if you did then why are you even bothering with showing me an avg  touch with  std dev and comparing it to a bunch of other rb's half who were injured last season? You are the only guy comparing him to another group of rb's in terms of 'consistency'.😂

Since you are obviously unable to research properly here is Cohens  16 game touch distribution in chronological order

8-5-8-20-12-14-6-7-13-10-10-10-20-13-10-7-7

43% of his games he had under 10 touches. Not sure what part of I dont draft rb1/rb2's  with a wide variance of distribution outcomes and particularly heavily weighted towards the single digit of the range. 5-20 is too volatile for me. You can keep harping about his consistency but that holds no weight for me I value the predictability of weekly touches higher.

I get it you are a fanboy and you want to support a player you like  and you truly are debating a debate that is within your own mind and not with me but sorry mate your analysis is worth ZERO in terms of this years expectations.  given the way Nagy has revamped the backfield i would bet Cohens workload will be more volatile week to week.   I currently value him as a rb3 until tc and preseason tell me otherwise

 

Cheers👏

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27 minutes ago, dashoe said:

What are WE doing? I think YOU are doing this ALONE and i am enjoying your 1 man show😂

Do you understand what the term DISTRIBUTION RANGE means? 🤪

if you did then why are you even bothering with showing me an avg  touch with  std dev and comparing it to a bunch of other rb's half who were injured last season? You are the only guy comparing him to another group of rb's in terms of 'consistency'.😂

Since you are obviously unable to research properly here is Cohens  16 game touch distribution in chronological order

8-5-8-20-12-14-6-7-13-10-10-10-20-13-10-7-7

43% of his games he had under 10 touches. Not sure what part of I dont draft rb1/rb2's  with a wide variance of distribution outcomes and particularly heavily weighted towards the single digit of the range. 5-20 is too volatile for me. You can keep harping about his consistency but that holds no weight for me I value the predictability of weekly touches higher.

I get it you are a fanboy and you want to support a player you like  and you truly are debating a debate that is within your own mind and not with me but sorry mate your analysis is worth ZERO in terms of this years expectations.  given the way Nagy has revamped the backfield i would bet Cohens workload will be more volatile week to week.   I currently value him as a rb3 until tc and preseason tell me otherwise

 

Cheers👏

The point of my data is that the distribution range for any of those aforementioned running backs is going to look the same. 

Drake's range was 17-4

Coleman's range was 20-7

Ekeler 18-3

Breida 22-5

Etc. etc....

Bottom line, you're making a critique of Cohen that applies to any pass catching back. Yet all of these guys are PPR RB2s. If you're strategy is to avoid any RBs in this mold, that's your prerogative, but I'll continue to argue that it's a bad strategy. The data shows that these RBs are MORE reliable than the Derrick Henrys and Jordan Howards of the world, even though those guys get higher volume.  

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1 hour ago, ajs723 said:

So, why, pray tell, will his usage go down? You think Montgomery and Davis are going to significantly eclipse the nearly 20 touches per game the Bears got from Howard and Mizzell last year?

Keep doubting Cohen, I love seeing this tough little dude prove everyone wrong year after year.  

It’s not often that Shoe and I agree...you might want to recognize.

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47 minutes ago, ajs723 said:

The point of my data is that the distribution range for any of those aforementioned running backs is going to look the same. 

Drake's range was 17-4

Coleman's range was 20-7

Ekeler 18-3

Breida 22-5

Etc. etc....

Bottom line, you're making a critique of Cohen that applies to any pass catching back. Yet all of these guys are PPR RB2s. If you're strategy is to avoid any RBs in this mold, that's your prerogative, but I'll continue to argue that it's a bad strategy. The data shows that these RBs are MORE reliable than the Derrick Henrys and Jordan Howards of the world, even though those guys get higher volume.  

Well there’s your problem...Drake, Ekeler, Breida, Coleman are bye-week plays.

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12 minutes ago, psygolf said:

Well there’s your problem...Drake, Ekeler, Breida, Coleman are bye-week plays.

 

I pretty much ignored that part of his argument it wasnt worth  responding to in depth.

Now if he had presented James White as Exhibit A  who was the other "most consistent" rb last year who outperformed Tarik  fantasy wise with similar touch counts 

and a cheaper ADP then there would have been some meat on the bones of his point but he didnt and I didnt want to keep him going. . .🤣

Maybe if I state I dont like Tariks  situation he may just leave it alone. . 🤪

 

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2 hours ago, psygolf said:

Well there’s your problem...Drake, Ekeler, Breida, Coleman are bye-week plays.

 

2 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

I pretty much ignored that part of his argument it wasnt worth  responding to in depth.

Now if he had presented James White as Exhibit A  who was the other "most consistent" rb last year who outperformed Tarik  fantasy wise with similar touch counts 

and a cheaper ADP then there would have been some meat on the bones of his point but he didnt and I didnt want to keep him going. . .🤣

Maybe if I state I dont like Tariks  situation he may just leave it alone. . 🤪

 

I feel like I'm being expert-level trolled. James White was a solid RB1 last year. I never said Cohen was an RB1, I said RB2. All of those guys were RB2s in PPR last year. 

Unless you guys are playing in 6 team leagues, top 20 RBs are not "bye week plays". Drake, Coleman, Yeldon, Brieda, etc. were all every week starts in 12 Team PPR leagues. 

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Agree on White/Cohen. Brenda was ok, Drake meh, but Yeldon was after week 8 definitely not an every week start, when his usage dried up.

 

I think the discussion shows an interesting difference in philosophy and strategy. Do you build your team for floor, or for ceiling? I prefer my high round picks to have a high floor (safety first) and my lower round picks to have a high ceiling.

If my RB2 is say a third rounder, then I definitely want a high floor, and I side with shoe. If my RB2 ends up say a 6th rounder (through whatever strategy), most likely he will be more volatile, and I agree with you.

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12 hours ago, psygolf said:

Well, unfortunately my leagues do not score last year’s pts or consistency rankings.

Cohen owners/fans (myself included in the group) need to be honest with themselves and acknowledge that the bears added 2 rbs that are great between the tackles and have the ability to catch the football.

Cohen is great, but there’s no chance he can maintain the touches he received in ‘18 without an injury to the others.

 

This is me as well.   I was shouting from rooftops in praise of Cohen earlier in this thread, but this development can't be ignored.  Cohen can still be impactful, but his outlook is clearly worse.   Montgomery looks good enough that he could absolutely take a primary role, if the staff so chooses.   I'm not saying I expect that, I'm just saying its feasible and has to be in the back of your mind when you consider Cohen's value.   He could get Duke Johnson'd here 

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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

 

I feel like I'm being expert-level trolled. James White was a solid RB1 last year. I never said Cohen was an RB1, I said RB2. All of those guys were RB2s in PPR last year. 

Unless you guys are playing in 6 team leagues, top 20 RBs are not "bye week plays". Drake, Coleman, Yeldon, Brieda, etc. were all every week starts in 12 Team PPR leagues. 

They rbs you listed were rb2’s because they benefited from injury to the actual starter.

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1 minute ago, BrianM said:

 

This is me as well.   I was shouting from rooftops in praise of Cohen earlier in this thread, but this development can't be ignored.  Cohen can still be impactful, but his outlook is clearly worse.   Montgomery looks good enough that he could absolutely take a primary role, if the staff so chooses.   I'm not saying I expect that, I'm just saying its feasible and has to be in the back of your mind when you consider Cohen's value.   He could get Duke Johnson'd here 

Nobody moves up in the draft to secure a 3rd string rb.  

It is up to Nagy now to show it was worth the expense.

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7 hours ago, ajs723 said:

 

I feel like I'm being expert-level trolled. James White was a solid RB1 last year. I never said Cohen was an RB1, I said RB2. All of those guys were RB2s in PPR last year. 

Unless you guys are playing in 6 team leagues, top 20 RBs are not "bye week plays". Drake, Coleman, Yeldon, Brieda, etc. were all every week starts in 12 Team PPR leagues. 

 

You are not being trolled, you're just not being taken very seriously because you are all over the map in trying to prove a point that is flawed by the way you process. The guys you pulled for your comps you provided no context to aside they finished as rb2's. .  great analysis  .  ..🤣

i like to provide a basis for your comps based on ADP

Here is a generic ADP before labor day 2018

Drake #17  rb2 
Coleman #29 rb3
Cohen #34   rb3
white #42  rb4 
Brieda #53 rb5 
ekeler #58 rb5 
yeldon #60 rb6 
hines #63  rb6 

Cohen was pretty much drafted as a back end rb2 or a high rb3 depending on your draft, drake was viewed as a solid rb2 and everyone else on your list was basically a cuff or a lottery ticket.

white-coleman-brieda-yeldon-hines all benefited from injuries in their backfield.Drake finished in line despite sharing a backfield, Brieda was a daily walking injury report who was unreliable week to week. 

Cohen didnt  benefit from injuries in his backfield and he still performed above his draft ADP and pretty much in line with expectations for those who drafted him if you viewed him as a high end rb2.  So what you are actually doing is comparing Cohen to a bunch of cuffs and lottery tickets who severely outperformed expectations relative to their ADP.  

So exactly what is your point? 😂

Do you really think that Nagy the misdirection, mismatch keep the defense guessing HC revamped his backfield this year in order to not put the ball in the hands of other rbs? Sorry I am not willing to make that bet to draft Cohen as a rb2 and I am fine drafting him as a rb3/flex.

You can keep pounding the board about how consistent Cohen was last year as a producer, which I never disputed and I maintain Cohens touches are unpredictable week to week. As i said you are arguing with yourself for some reason. 😂

 

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14 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

You are not being trolled, you're just not being taken very seriously because you are all over the map in trying to prove a point that is flawed by the way you process. The guys you pulled for your comps you provided no context to aside they finished as rb2's. .  great analysis  .  ..🤣

i like to provide a basis for your comps based on ADP

Here is a generic ADP before labor day 2018

Drake #17  rb2 
Coleman #29 rb3
Cohen #34   rb3
white #42  rb4 
Brieda #53 rb5 
ekeler #58 rb5 
yeldon #60 rb6 
hines #63  rb6 

Cohen was pretty much drafted as a back end rb2 or a high rb3 depending on your draft, drake was viewed as a solid rb2 and everyone else on your list was basically a cuff or a lottery ticket.

white-coleman-brieda-yeldon-hines all benefited from injuries in their backfield.Drake finished in line despite sharing a backfield, Brieda was a daily walking injury report who was unreliable week to week. 

Cohen didnt  benefit from injuries in his backfield and he still performed above his draft ADP and pretty much in line with expectations for those who drafted him if you viewed him as a high end rb2.  So what you are actually doing is comparing Cohen to a bunch of cuffs and lottery tickets who severely outperformed expectations relative to their ADP.  

So exactly what is your point? 😂

Do you really think that Nagy the misdirection, mismatch keep the defense guessing HC revamped his backfield this year in order to not put the ball in the hands of other rbs? Sorry I am not willing to make that bet to draft Cohen as a rb2 and I am fine drafting him as a rb3/flex.

You can keep pounding the board about how consistent Cohen was last year as a producer, which I never disputed and I maintain Cohens touches are unpredictable week to week. As i said you are arguing with yourself for some reason. 😂

 

You're using preseason ADP. I'm done here. 

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