JuJu Smith-Schuster 2019 Outlook

[bhawks489 3,678]

4 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Yeah, that's silly, I agree.  I'm guessing it winds up something like this:

(Hopkins, Adams, Tyreek), (Thomas, Julio), (Beckham, Juju, AB, Evans)

That's pretty much what I'm seeing now in best balls. 

[dmb3684 4,644]

On 2/26/2019 at 8:53 AM, Lord_Varys said:

 

Yeah, that's silly, I agree.  I'm guessing it winds up something like this:

(Hopkins, Adams, Tyreek), (Thomas, Julio), (Beckham, Juju, AB, Evans)

 

So you think his ADP will go down? I disagree 

[Lord_Varys 4,626]

7 hours ago, dmb3684 said:

 

So you think his ADP will go down? I disagree 

 

Yeah I'm guessing it falls behind Julio and Thomas. Idk where you're seeing its so much higher than that but I wouldn't trust that source. 

[bhawks489 3,678]

1 hour ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Yeah I'm guessing it falls behind Julio and Thomas. Idk where you're seeing its so much higher than that but I wouldn't trust that source. 

I'm up to about 10 best balls so far and it's  mostly been Hopkins, Adams, Thomas, Julio, Hill, ODB/Juju/Brown

[Lord_Varys 4,626]

10 hours ago, bhawks489 said:

I'm up to about 10 best balls so far and it's  mostly been Hopkins, Adams, Thomas, Julio, Hill, ODB/Juju/Brown

 

Same.  

[dmb3684 4,644]

12 hours ago, Lord_Varys said:

 

Yeah I'm guessing it falls behind Julio and Thomas. Idk where you're seeing its so much higher than that but I wouldn't trust that source. 

 

FFC? Only source I use for ADP. It is most accurate.

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

Edited February 28, 2019 by dmb3684

[bhawks489 3,678]

49 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

FFC? Only source I use for ADP. It is most accurate.

 

https://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp

Not quite

 

they have Kelce listed somewhere in the 3rd and I've never seen him fall that far

 

there were a few other weird placements that i can't remember

[dmb3684 4,644]

34 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Not quite

 

they have Kelce listed somewhere in the 3rd and I've never seen him fall that far

 

there were a few other weird placements that i can't remember

 

Ok. Been using it for a decade. Not going to argue its validity. JuJu will be going somewhere around where he is listed there (2.05). I'll check back in August to see that I'm right.

[Lord_Varys 4,626]

56 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Ok. Been using it for a decade. Not going to argue its validity. JuJu will be going somewhere around where he is listed there (2.05). I'll check back in August to see that I'm right.

 

You must be great at parties.

 

[dashoe 6,462]

1 hour ago, bhawks489 said:

Not quite

 

they have Kelce listed somewhere in the 3rd and I've never seen him fall that far

 

there were a few other weird placements that i can't remember

 

 

I stopped using that site when i saw what morons were doing in the mocks and how it skews the results like taking QB's in the first round  or quitting the mocks after their first pick.  I have also noticed a correlation between players being promoted heavily in the fantasy blog cycle and how their ADP's would move up based on the mocks. It's all a self fulfilling echo chamber to some extent.  The best use of ADP I have found is using it as a roadmap to figure out how the guys in my draft will value players which allows me to grab fallen angels at a discount. My team profited well from people pushing down Mixon-Adams-edelman last year

[bhawks489 3,678]

1 hour ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Ok. Been using it for a decade. Not going to argue its validity. JuJu will be going somewhere around where he is listed there (2.05). I'll check back in August to see that I'm right.

You said FFc was accurate. It's not at the moment.

 

Do you know how FFC gets its rankings?

[dmb3684 4,644]

15 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

You said FFc was accurate. It's not at the moment.

 

Do you know how FFC gets its rankings?

 

The draft hasn't even happened. Nothing is accurate at the moment. 

[dashoe 6,462]

10 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

You said FFc was accurate. It's not at the moment.

 

Do you know how FFC gets its rankings?

 

 

I'll give the answer for the guy you are replying to. I find it's always best to review a sites methodology for their data so you can then determine how useful it can be to you.

Per FFC site:

ADP: Average Draft Position (ADP) is a list of NFL players ordered by their average position taken in fantasy football drafts. The average value of their draft position is taken over a range of many drafts. Computer selections are filtered out, and only human selections are considered. Useful for fantasy draft preparation.

 

So if you think about the milions of mocks that people do on that site and assume a healthy number of them quit after the 3rd rd, u can determine that the top 24 players  are the true consensus or herd value whereas the later rounds are heavily skewed by the few  who actually go the distance; which is where you can find the real value vs your opponents on draft day. 

[dashoe 6,462]

10 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

 

I'll give the answer for the guy you are replying to. I find it's always best to review a sites methodology for their data so you can then determine how useful it can be to you.

Per FFC site:

ADP: Average Draft Position (ADP) is a list of NFL players ordered by their average position taken in fantasy football drafts. The average value of their draft position is taken over a range of many drafts. Computer selections are filtered out, and only human selections are considered. Useful for fantasy draft preparation.

 

So if you think about the milions of mocks that people do on that site and assume a healthy number of them quit after the 3rd rd, u can determine that the top 24 players  are the true consensus or herd value whereas the later rounds are heavily skewed by the few  who actually go the distance; which is where you can find the real value vs your opponents on draft day. 

 

So the results in see in FFC today are based on

👇

Data from 1213 fantasy football mock drafts between February 20, 2019 and February 28, 2019

[dmb3684 4,644]

17 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

So the results in see in FFC today are based on

👇

Data from 1213 fantasy football mock drafts between February 20, 2019 and February 28, 2019

 

That is the time period we are in. Not sure I follow.

[dashoe 6,462]

4 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

That is the time period we are in. Not sure I follow.

 

The question asked was how does FFC get it's  rankings.  that was part of the answer 👀

[bhawks489 3,678]

On 2/28/2019 at 11:17 AM, dashoe said:

 

The question asked was how does FFC get it's  rankings.  that was part of the answer 👀

Those are also mocks. It's better to use the rankings at draft.com as that uses the results from paid leagues. 

[P@ckersFan 354]

If AB leaves town Juju has WR#1 potential. 

Edited March 1, 2019 by P@ckersFan

[dmb3684 4,644]

58 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

Those are also mocks. It's better to use the rankings at draft.com as that uses the results from paid leagues. 

 

Nah. It's better in your opinion. Agree to disagree. I look at all of them and find FFC to most resemble my drafts. I look at all of them anyhow.

[bhawks489 3,678]

14 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

Nah. It's better in your opinion. Agree to disagree. I look at all of them and find FFC to most resemble my drafts. I look at all of them anyhow.

I mean, id rather take the adp where people have to pay to have a say but it is what it is.

 

FFC gets more accurate the closer you get to the season. I bet by July or so most FF folks will be jumping into drafts and negate all the trolls selecting kickers first.

[dmb3684 4,644]

13 minutes ago, bhawks489 said:

I mean, id rather take the adp where people have to pay to have a say but it is what it is.

 

FFC gets more accurate the closer you get to the season. I bet by July or so most FF folks will be jumping into drafts and negate all the trolls selecting kickers first.

 

I actually am not looking too hard at ADP this time of year, and going by the paid sites is making sense to me when put that way at this point in the season.

 

Still using FFC come draft time, however.

[psygolf 2,791]

On 2/28/2019 at 10:22 AM, dashoe said:

 

 

I stopped using that site when i saw what morons were doing in the mocks and how it skews the results like taking QB's in the first round  or quitting the mocks after their first pick.  I have also noticed a correlation between players being promoted heavily in the fantasy blog cycle and how their ADP's would move up based on the mocks. It's all a self fulfilling echo chamber to some extent.  The best use of ADP I have found is using it as a roadmap to figure out how the guys in my draft will value players which allows me to grab fallen angels at a discount. My team profited well from people pushing down Mixon-Adams-edelman last year

Edelman’s suspension being upheld pushed his adp down...but didn’t adp’s for Mixon & Adams get higher as the season approached-?

[dashoe 6,462]

1 hour ago, psygolf said:

Edelman’s suspension being upheld pushed his adp down...but didn’t adp’s for Mixon & Adams get higher as the season approached-?

 

I don't think there was massive movement in Mixon/adams  ADP from TC-season start given their situations were pretty much set in stone.  Any DP movement was more than likely in a  +/- 4 margin vs players in the same skills position ; it wasn't like either one of th moved up 10 spots on the draft board.

They were however cheap in auctions compared to AB-obj-hopkins-zeke-barkley etc. in some cases  up to 40% haircuts to the tier1 players. Say zeke/cmc traded for $65 in a 12 man $200 auction format , you could have acquired Mixon for $35-40. Auctions are always irrational and mispriced when live compared to ADP rankings

[psygolf 2,791]

8 minutes ago, dashoe said:

 

I don't think there was massive movement in Mixon/adams  ADP from TC-season start given their situations were pretty much set in stone.  Any DP movement was more than likely in a  +/- 4 margin vs players in the same skills position ; it wasn't like either one of th moved up 10 spots on the draft board.

They were however cheap in auctions compared to AB-obj-hopkins-zeke-barkley etc. in some cases  up to 40% haircuts to the tier1 players. Say zeke/cmc traded for $65 in a 12 man $200 auction format , you could have acquired Mixon for $35-40. Auctions are always irrational and mispriced when live compared to ADP rankings

You didn’t state they were good values/alternatives...you said you benefited from others driving their adp down.

I haven’t come across anything to back that claim of falling prices/draft positions before last season.

[dashoe 6,462]

6 minutes ago, psygolf said:

You didn’t state they were good values/alternatives...you said you benefited from others driving their adp down.

I haven’t come across anything to back that claim of falling prices/draft positions before last season.

 

yeah are looking for a debate that isnt there mate. So i'll sum it up for you, let's take Adams as an example. Adams was not priced as a top 5 wr according to the consensus ADP because there was fear/uncertainty. I had him ranked as a top5 early on in this forum where i stated i would take adams+allen  to finish in the top5 ahead of obj+hopkins. The consensus held true to form on draft day those around me paid up for AB-OBJ-Hopkins and Adams fell to me for a very nice discount.

Aaron rodgers wr1 being priced as the #10-12 wr off the board is a fallen angel in my book. 😚