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Kerryon Johnson 2019 Outlook


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I don't think the question for Kerryon is if he's talented enough. His 16 game pace numbers last year would have made him RB12 in .5 PPR and that was with him losing touches to Blout, Riddick, and Zen

People acting victorious after someone gets a multi-week injury. Lmao He had 100 yards or a Touchdown in each of his last three games and was already on pace for 100 yards in the last game.

This is the week Kerryon becomes a superstar

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Just now, dms80790 said:

Fantasy rule #9: Never pay attention to preseason

I try not to put too much stock into preseason... but Ty Johnson as a receiver out of the backfield, plus CJ is making me feel like this will be a RBBC with Kerryon obviously getting the most touches. But a RBBC in a not so great offense is something I want no part of.

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2 minutes ago, joebaker23 said:

I try not to put too much stock into preseason... but Ty Johnson as a receiver out of the backfield, plus CJ is making me feel like this will be a RBBC with Kerryon obviously getting the most touches. But a RBBC in a not so great offense is something I want no part of.

I still think Kerryon ends up with around 60% of the share. He's just too talented. What coaches do in the preseason (even the week 3 'dress rehearsal') seldom represents what happens come week 1. Don't psych yourself out on any player based on what you see when the games don't count

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I draft Kerryon with Confidence. That won't change because of CJ Anderson... Every Lead Back needs a backup and breather. Kerryon is way too talented to not get at least 65-70% of the touches. I personally thank the Detroit Coaching Staff for realizing they need to keep their Star RB fresh throughout the season... and APPLAUD THEM for grabbing CJA.

We're going to witness beautiful growth and exciting runs from Kerryon this year, I feel.

*knocks on wood*

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Yeah....I'm still not buying this KJ hype...and I am firmly in the "prove it to me" phase.

Saw him go 18th overall in a PPR league, and to me, that's WAY TOO HIGH.

 

- Injuries are a concern (some will argue this but w/e)

- He's stated that he doesn't want to be a 3-down back and all signs are pointing to him not being a true "bellcow"

- CJ Anderson will be stealing at least 6-10 touches from him a game...and wouldn't be surprised to see Zenner steal 1-2 as well.

 

And for those reasons alone, I will not be drafting him unless he falls to me in the Pick 30+ range.

For me, he's like Dalvin Cook. Prove it to me first.

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2 minutes ago, CORTEz said:

Yeah....I'm still not buying this KJ hype...and I am firmly in the "prove it to me" phase.

Saw him go 18th overall in a PPR league, and to me, that's WAY TOO HIGH.

 

- Injuries are a concern (some will argue this but w/e)

- He's stated that he doesn't want to be a 3-down back and all signs are pointing to him not being a true "bellcow"

- CJ Anderson will be stealing at least 6-10 touches from him a game...and wouldn't be surprised to see Zenner steal 1-2 as well.

 

And for those reasons alone, I will not be drafting him unless he falls to me in the Pick 30+ range.

For me, he's like Dalvin Cook. Prove it to me first.

I agree. 18? Who does he think he is, David Montgomery?

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I really like him a lot, but from some of the posts I am reading here I am certainly not going to reach as high as #18 overall to get him. If he slips to the 3rd round then I will give it a go with him.

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This is hopefully going to create value for Kerryon.

The only thing affecting his value right now (both positively and negatively) is narrative. CJ’s playing a lot in the preseason, let’s read into that. Ty Johnson catches passes, let’s read into that. O-lineman gets hurt, let’s read into that. In reality, very little has changed.

Irrespective of an injury to one of his o-lineman, his floor was always low. When his price skyrocketed I missed him everywhere, it was based on a false narrative, hollered by pundits. That low floor is being hammered of late, no reason to go into it, except to say that it has always been there and was being glossed over by the hype.

Now we’re starting to 180 and his ceiling is being overlooked by the fade brigade. Because all the reasons everyone liked him before are still there, preseason be damned. The one thing we haven’t seen in the preseason is Kerryon knifing through a defense over and over again. If we had it would likely temper the fade brigade. And I expect us to see it again starting week one. As for his usage, I don’t know. That has always been the question lowering his floor and his ceiling. But it’s possible Ty Johnson sees less than 5 snaps/game as thousands of preseason darlings have before, and it’s possible Kerryon catches 70 passes, and it’s possible he scores 10+ TDs. All of these things are still possible and in fact just as likely as they were 3 weeks ago, regardless of the narrative shifts over the preseason.

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2 minutes ago, Fierylady said:

This is hopefully going to create value for Kerryon.

The only thing affecting his value right now (both positively and negatively) is narrative. CJ’s playing a lot in the preseason, let’s read into that. Ty Johnson catches passes, let’s read into that. O-lineman gets hurt, let’s read into that. In reality, very little has changed.

Irrespective of an injury to one of his o-lineman, his floor was always low. When his price skyrocketed I missed him everywhere, it was based on a false narrative, hollered by pundits. That low floor is being hammered of late, no reason to go into it, except to say that it has always been there and was being glossed over by the hype.

Now we’re starting to 180 and his ceiling is being overlooked by the fade brigade. Because all the reasons everyone liked him before are still there, preseason be damned. The one thing we haven’t seen in the preseason is Kerryon knifing through a defense over and over again. If we had it would likely temper the fade brigade. And I expect us to see it again starting week one. As for his usage, I don’t know. That has always been the question lowering his floor and his ceiling. But it’s possible Ty Johnson sees less than 5 snaps/game as thousands of preseason darlings have before, and it’s possible Kerryon catches 70 passes, and it’s possible he scores 10+ TDs. All of these things are still possible and in fact just as likely as they were 3 weeks ago, regardless of the narrative shifts over the preseason.

 

But the narrative has some underlying truth to it. Let's face it - the guy is a stud at the running and catching side of football.  His pass pro is less than stellar.  Take the narrative now into the equation...they have CJ who can block...they just loss one of their top OL.  This might cause a bit more strain on Stafford which is going to force Patricia to look at utilizing CJ more than everyone would actually like to see.  I haven't seen enough of Ty Johnson to understand his pass pro but, if it is better than Kerryon, then...it's not looking good for Kerryon.  You can't be a RB in this league and not be good at blocking...one of the best ways to identify who is going to get the most carries is by who is the best at pass pro. 

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3 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Unfortunately for the Lions - they haven't had a trust worthy RB for years.  I think it continues.  I don't see Kerryon at the current ADP value right now.  Rather get my RB fill earlier in the draft. 

Since....the last time JBC wasn’t the OC.

 

I implore everyone to look at RB history with these coaches. Specifically the history of DET RBs, the history of JBC, and the history of Bevell specifically with what he did for Marshawn Lynch’s career. The numbers pre- and post-Bevell for Lynch are staggaring.

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11 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

 

But the narrative has some underlying truth to it. Let's face it - the guy is a stud at the running and catching side of football.  His pass pro is less than stellar.  Take the narrative now into the equation...they have CJ who can block...they just loss one of their top OL.  This might cause a bit more strain on Stafford which is going to force Patricia to look at utilizing CJ more than everyone would actually like to see.  I haven't seen enough of Ty Johnson to understand his pass pro but, if it is better than Kerryon, then...it's not looking good for Kerryon.  You can't be a RB in this league and not be good at blocking...one of the best ways to identify who is going to get the most carries is by who is the best at pass pro. 

But see, that’s just it... this is more narrative. Not only is Kerryon not a bad pass-blocking back, from weeks 6-10 last year, PFF gave him a pass-blocking score of 91.1, which was the best in the league (he got hurt week 11). Sure, PFF, grain of salt, but whether he was actually the best in the league or not hardly matters, what matters is that he was very, very good. I will admit that he started slowly - as most rookies do - before improving dramatically, and the Lions beat writers tend to point out when he misses a block in training camp (as they did last year), but then it churns through the NFL media machine and a missed assignment suddenly becomes ‘struggles’, and then CJ Anderson’s in because of these struggles, and then, well, you get the idea. I’ll take the actual game performances myself. 

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I'm honestly more intrigued by CJ or Ty right now.  Ty seems to have everything Kerryon has (including the last name) - he might be even more explosive.  There is something about Kerryon and the way he takes the ball and you can physically see his posture change when he kicks it into gear.  It is strange to me and it tells me that he might not be as strong of a runner everyone talks him up to be.  

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34 minutes ago, crizza0309 said:

he fell to me in round 4 last night in a 10 man draft. ended up taking him as my RB2 behind freeman. I think getting him at pick 35 he was a steal no?

 

You did well.  I was excited with Blount and Riddick gone but it seems like it’s the same crap all over again with CJ.

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Not worried about CJA... But I love the people who are overthinking it. Allows me to make KJ a great 2nd RB.

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Not getting 3rd down work in pre-season on a team that will likely be playing from behind a good bit, is a bit concerning. If he ends up being a 1/2 down and goaline back, he's gonna have value off the bat, but fading him a little bit in PPR leagues now.

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4 minutes ago, ponza88 said:

Not worried about CJA..

You should be. Ty Johnson as well. Patricia will use CJ like he did Blount. He may not get as many touches but will be used much more than Kerryon owners want. 

Ty's been getting some run with the ones. 

Patricia will channel his inner Belichick. Many RBs being utilized.

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Just now, this guy right here said:

You should be. Ty Johnson as well. Patricia will use CJ like he did Blount. He may not get as many touches but will be used much more than Kerryon owners want. 

Ty's been getting some run with the ones. 

Patricia will channel his inner Belichick. Many RBs being utilized.

 

Like I said... I'm not worries about CJA.

 

And no I shouldn't be... KJ is an elite talent both Running and Catching the ball. He's also a very very good pass blocker. 

 

No team plays their star RB 100% of the time... And KJ isn't the type of player that NEEDS 20 touches a game.

 

Also, due to people thinking and fearing CJA... It has brought his ADP down to RB2 level (depending on how you draft)... I'll happily buy that value.

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I don't get the hate here at all. not one bit. People act like this is the same lions team with the same mediocore running backs they had 3 years ago. Like this is still a Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdulah situation. The Lions are trying to figure out which one of their trash RBs will be the starter, they know. They have a young elite RB. His name is Kerryon Johnson. The Lions will be laughing themselves to a 5 win season if they think CJ Anderson, the man cut by two teams last year, is the better RB option than Kerryon.

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54 minutes ago, CitizenJ said:

I don't get the hate here at all. not one bit. People act like this is the same lions team with the same mediocore running backs they had 3 years ago. Like this is still a Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdulah situation. The Lions are trying to figure out which one of their trash RBs will be the starter, they know. They have a young elite RB. His name is Kerryon Johnson. The Lions will be laughing themselves to a 5 win season if they think CJ Anderson, the man cut by two teams last year, is the better RB option than Kerryon.

 

Here, let me introduce you to Matt Patricia. 

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1 hour ago, CitizenJ said:

I don't get the hate here at all. not one bit. People act like this is the same lions team with the same mediocore running backs they had 3 years ago. Like this is still a Theo Riddick, Ameer Abdulah situation. The Lions are trying to figure out which one of their trash RBs will be the starter, they know. They have a young elite RB. His name is Kerryon Johnson. The Lions will be laughing themselves to a 5 win season if they think CJ Anderson, the man cut by two teams last year, is the better RB option than Kerryon.

 

CJ Anderson went ballistic at the end of last year when Gurley went down.  Not saying he is as good as he looked (small sample size), but he clearly has something left.  I wouldn't dismiss him playing a significant role so easily.

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