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Kerryon Johnson 2019 Outlook


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30 minutes ago, Brownsfan74 said:

 

CJ Anderson went ballistic at the end of last year when Gurley went down.  Not saying he is as good as he looked (small sample size), but he clearly has something left.  I wouldn't dismiss him playing a significant role so easily.

 

Rams fan here ... He was a really good BACKUP. Had some hard runs when we needed them... Like a backup should be able to do... Theoretically.

 

His runs were also due to huge holes at different levels of the field created by the Rams Offensive Line and missed blocks due to many options needing to be covered. Watch the film.

 

I'm not saying CJA is bad... But to say both can't coexist together while Kerryon still produces Top 10 numbers (a very real possibility)... Is absolutely absurd.

 

KJ owners should be happy they're trying to keep their star RB fresh.

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I don't think the question for Kerryon is if he's talented enough. His 16 game pace numbers last year would have made him RB12 in .5 PPR and that was with him losing touches to Blout, Riddick, and Zen

People acting victorious after someone gets a multi-week injury. Lmao He had 100 yards or a Touchdown in each of his last three games and was already on pace for 100 yards in the last game.

This is the week Kerryon becomes a superstar

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20 hours ago, dudewithabadcat said:

I'm honestly more intrigued by CJ or Ty right now.  Ty seems to have everything Kerryon has (including the last name) - he might be even more explosive.  There is something about Kerryon and the way he takes the ball and you can physically see his posture change when he kicks it into gear.  It is strange to me and it tells me that he might not be as strong of a runner everyone talks him up to be.  

Ty is faster than Kerryon, but he is not more explosive. At the combine his explosion metrics tested as elite; his vert of 40-inches was tied for second-best amongst RBs and his broad jump was 3rd. And that explosion informs his patient running style, where he follows his blockers looking for a hole, then blasts through it when he sees it. I think he’s one of the most talented guys at actually being a running back in the whole league.

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Also wound up with this guy in my 14 teamer...wasn't really happy about it but was about the best I could do after getting Zeke and Thomas in the first 2 rounds.

He's easily the most talented RB they have...the only chance that offense has to improve IMO is if Johnson plays well 

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Everyone acts like the lions are forced to be a RBBC team because they have drafted and signed some awful running backs over the past 10ish years and never found one that worked. Kerryon was a rookie last year and is set to take this offense over. Giving serious snaps to CJ "I got cut by a bad team twice" Anderson over Kerryon would be silly and unexplainable unless Kerryon starts dealing with Injury. 

Most elite running backs have other backs just like these two behind them. Kerryon can be had for a good value if people in your league think this is going to be a "classic Lions timeshare". 

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I don't think the question for Kerryon is if he's talented enough. His 16 game pace numbers last year would have made him RB12 in .5 PPR and that was with him losing touches to Blout, Riddick, and Zenner. The only questions I have for him is if he can stay healthy and if the Lions will give him enough touches to return RB1 value. 

I can't predict health but I feel good about the touches being there even with CJ being there. Let's look at what Darrell Bevell, their new OC, has done in the past.

He's been an OC for 11 years and 9 out of those 11 years he's given 3 different RBs at least 300 touches, including:

2006 - Chester Taylor : 303 rushes / 42 receptions
2007 - Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor : 394 rushes / 38 receptions
2008 - Adrian Peterson : 363 rushes / 21 receptions
2009 - Adrian Peterson 314 rushes / 43 receptions
2010 - Adrian Peterson : 283 rushes / 36 receptions
2011 - Marshawn Lynch : 285 rushes / 28 receptions
2012 - Marshawn Lynch : 315 rushes / 23 receptions
2013 - Marshawn Lynch : 301 rushes / 36 receptions

2014 - Marshawn Lynch : 280 rushes / 37 receptions

In 2015, he had 3 different RBs start but the Seahawks were still 3rd in rush attempts and yards.

Derrell Bevell teams have been top 10 in rushing attempts 8 out of the 11 years he's been an OC and the Patriots, Patricia old team, have been in the top 10 in rushing attempts 5 out of the last 7 years.

In contrast Jim Bob Cooter's lions offenses have finished 30, 31, 31, and 18 (during Patricia's first year) in rush attempts.

Essentially, Patricia comes in last year and makes his OC, who historically never ran the ball, run the ball more than he ever has and then still fires him and hires a guy who runs the ball even more. 


 Kerryon averaged 15 touches a game (and was putting up low end RB1 numbers) last year and with an even more run heavy offense I don't see any reason he can't get to 18-20.

 

 

 

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1 hour ago, CitizenJ said:

Everyone acts like the lions are forced to be a RBBC team because they have drafted and signed some awful running backs over the past 10ish years and never found one that worked. Kerryon was a rookie last year and is set to take this offense over. Giving serious snaps to CJ "I got cut by a bad team twice" Anderson over Kerryon would be silly and unexplainable unless Kerryon starts dealing with Injury. 

Most elite running backs have other backs just like these two behind them. Kerryon can be had for a good value if people in your league think this is going to be a "classic Lions timeshare". 

 

Worst thing for me is....name the last good fantasy Lions RB...Its tough to do.

If Kerryon were on the Chiefs, he'd be a top 10 RB.

The Lions have the potential to be a good offense....but it's the Lions.  They always seem to find a way to stink and Patricia doesn't help as he's not offensive minded at all.

I have Kerryon and rooting for him...but him in the third round was easily my least favorite pick.  I probably should've just went WR and went with Michel or Ingram later.  Although I did still get some decent WRs later so idk.

We'll see i guess.  Kerryon is good enough in all phases to be a 3 down RB IMO but not sure the Lions will be smart enough to figure it out.  And their offense might not be good enough to have any viable fantasy RBs....wouldn't be the first time.

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Kerryon is undervalued because of the team he's on.  The new regime they have now cannot compare to your typical Lions squads we've been accustomed to.  He should be a mid 2nd round pick.  CJ is a great backup, but that's all he is, he is not a threat to Kerryon at all.  Hop on board the Kerryon train and enjoy the ride, it's going to be a fun one.

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Welp, wasn't super excited to grab him, but I pulled the trigger in the mid 3rd round.

Saw the Vikes just picked up JD to eat up some receptions, which isn't exciting, but it is what it is. 

Guys that look like they'll get the bulk of the carries are valuable commodities.

That said, now that he's on my roster, I'm Team Kerryon, let's go!!

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15 hours ago, tts42572 said:

 

Worst thing for me is....name the last good fantasy Lions RB...Its tough to do.

If Kerryon were on the Chiefs, he'd be a top 10 RB.

The Lions have the potential to be a good offense....but it's the Lions.  They always seem to find a way to stink and Patricia doesn't help as he's not offensive minded at all.

I have Kerryon and rooting for him...but him in the third round was easily my least favorite pick.  I probably should've just went WR and went with Michel or Ingram later.  Although I did still get some decent WRs later so idk.

We'll see i guess.  Kerryon is good enough in all phases to be a 3 down RB IMO but not sure the Lions will be smart enough to figure it out.  And their offense might not be good enough to have any viable fantasy RBs....wouldn't be the first time.

 

Prior to 2017 season:

Yah David Johnson looked good as a rookie but name me the last fantasy relevant Cardinals running back.

 

 

Not saying Kerryon will be David Johnson because he won’t be. More pointing as to why that’s a flawed argument. I mean people used the Penn State running back argument against Saquon last year and you saw how that worked out.

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I went KJ over Carson and immediately regretted it!

 

I did have KJ higher in my rankings as did a few other places. But it seems like Carson was ranked higher more consistently. Yikes!

 

He average 5.4 ypc last season so that’s promising. Just hoping the volume will be there.

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2 minutes ago, tpat30 said:

I went KJ over Carson and immediately regretted it!

 

I did have KJ higher in my rankings as did a few other places. But it seems like Carson was ranked higher more consistently. Yikes!

 

He average 5.4 ypc last season so that’s promising. Just hoping the volume will be there.

 

Kerryon has much higher upside. People trust Seattle more than the Lions and for good reason but Kerryon is the better player. I’d usually just pick the better player and hope the Lions don’t screw the situation up.

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9 hours ago, TommyKramer said:

Kerryon is undervalued because of the team he's on.  The new regime they have now cannot compare to your typical Lions squads we've been accustomed to.  He should be a mid 2nd round pick.  CJ is a great backup, but that's all he is, he is not a threat to Kerryon at all.  Hop on board the Kerryon train and enjoy the ride, it's going to be a fun one.

 

This is what I'm thinking is the case.  Or am I just wishful thinking / hoping cause I got Kerryon in all my leagues?  The talent is evident if you were drafting on talent alone he could be a top 5 pick.  But he has some questions marks.  System, usage within that system, as well as injury concerns and because of these question marks Kerryon could end up being a very good value this year.

 

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10 hours ago, TommyKramer said:

Kerryon is undervalued because of the team he's on.  The new regime they have now cannot compare to your typical Lions squads we've been accustomed to.  He should be a mid 2nd round pick.  CJ is a great backup, but that's all he is, he is not a threat to Kerryon at all.  Hop on board the Kerryon train and enjoy the ride, it's going to be a fun one.

Just to bump a previous comment I had, everyone should take a look at Bevell’s hiring in Seattle and what it did for Marshawn’s career when he went from Buffalo to Seattle. Not saying it’s fully attributable to Bevell, but Marshawn went from average NFL RB after his first 3.5 years to bellcow, featured, top-5 RB under Bevell.

Bevell was also the OC in Seattle from ‘11 to ‘18 where they averaged 10th in the NFL in rushing including five top-5 finishes in rushing in those eight years.

Kerryon is arguably more talented than Lynch was seen as when Bevell first had him in Seattle going into his 4th season.

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1 hour ago, jsch08 said:

 

Prior to 2017 season:

Yah David Johnson looked good as a rookie but name me the last fantasy relevant Cardinals running back.

 

 

Not saying Kerryon will be David Johnson because he won’t be. More pointing as to why that’s a flawed argument. I mean people used the Penn State running back argument against Saquon last year and you saw how that worked out.

 

Andre Ellington was a top-15 PPR RB in 2013 (despite missing weeks 14-17).  So ARI had fantasy relevant RBs before DJ. 

 

The biggest issue in DET is Patricia, who has turned a playoff-level team handed to him by Jim Caldwell into a laughingstock.  Not surprising for a coach whose defense gave up 500+ yards to Nick Foles in the Super Bowl, but its the reality of the situation. This is what happens when you fire good HCs and replace them with coaches who don't have any accountability for their team's record (Patricia is being given a long leash for last year's disaster because the DET GM forced Caldwell out against the owner's wishes and now has to hope that Patricia isn't as horrible a coach as he has shown so far). 

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16 minutes ago, Ruut6 said:

Just to bump a previous comment I had, everyone should take a look at Bevell’s hiring in Seattle and what it did for Marshawn’s career when he went from Buffalo to Seattle. Not saying it’s fully attributable to Bevell, but Marshawn went from average NFL RB after his first 3.5 years to bellcow, featured, top-5 RB under Bevell.

Bevell was also the OC in Seattle from ‘11 to ‘18 where they averaged 10th in the NFL in rushing including five top-5 finishes in rushing in those eight years.

Kerryon is arguably more talented than Lynch was seen as when Bevell first had him in Seattle going into his 4th season.

 

Woah I like Kerryon and he’s my RB2, but I don’t think there’s any argument that Lynch was a more talented runner.

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1 hour ago, tpat30 said:

I went KJ over Carson and immediately regretted it!

 

I did have KJ higher in my rankings as did a few other places. But it seems like Carson was ranked higher more consistently. Yikes!

 

He average 5.4 ypc last season so that’s promising. Just hoping the volume will be there.

 

No need to regret as Rashaad Penny is going to make that a RBBC in Seattle. 

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18 hours ago, RunCMC said:

Lions claimed J.D McKissic off waivers. Nothing major but he excels in catching passes, ala Theo Riddick . Certainly lowers KJ’s ceiling a bit . 


Totally lowers it. Don't draft him :)

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17 hours ago, tts42572 said:

 

Worst thing for me is....name the last good fantasy Lions RB...Its tough to do.

If Kerryon were on the Chiefs, he'd be a top 10 RB.

The Lions have the potential to be a good offense....but it's the Lions.  They always seem to find a way to stink and Patricia doesn't help as he's not offensive minded at all.

I have Kerryon and rooting for him...but him in the third round was easily my least favorite pick.  I probably should've just went WR and went with Michel or Ingram later.  Although I did still get some decent WRs later so idk.

We'll see i guess.  Kerryon is good enough in all phases to be a 3 down RB IMO but not sure the Lions will be smart enough to figure it out.  And their offense might not be good enough to have any viable fantasy RBs....wouldn't be the first time.


Bush / Bell.

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7 minutes ago, jsch08 said:

 

Woah I like Kerryon and he’s my RB2, but I don’t think there’s any argument that Lynch was a more talented runner.

That’s what I said “before he went to Seattle.”  He got a better crack as a rookie than Kerryon did because of Patricia/JBC but I’d say they were both fringe top 20 talents at those respective points in time. Kerryon has everything you need to be a workhorse besides maybe the durability Marshawn had. But that’s TBD.

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18 hours ago, AJ92 said:

I don't think the question for Kerryon is if he's talented enough. His 16 game pace numbers last year would have made him RB12 in .5 PPR and that was with him losing touches to Blout, Riddick, and Zenner. The only questions I have for him is if he can stay healthy and if the Lions will give him enough touches to return RB1 value. 

I can't predict health but I feel good about the touches being there even with CJ being there. Let's look at what Darrell Bevell, their new OC, has done in the past.

He's been an OC for 11 years and 9 out of those 11 years he's given 3 different RBs at least 300 touches, including:

2006 - Chester Taylor : 303 rushes / 42 receptions
2007 - Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor : 394 rushes / 38 receptions
2008 - Adrian Peterson : 363 rushes / 21 receptions
2009 - Adrian Peterson 314 rushes / 43 receptions
2010 - Adrian Peterson : 283 rushes / 36 receptions
2011 - Marshawn Lynch : 285 rushes / 28 receptions
2012 - Marshawn Lynch : 315 rushes / 23 receptions
2013 - Marshawn Lynch : 301 rushes / 36 receptions

2014 - Marshawn Lynch : 280 rushes / 37 receptions

In 2015, he had 3 different RBs start but the Seahawks were still 3rd in rush attempts and yards.

Derrell Bevell teams have been top 10 in rushing attempts 8 out of the 11 years he's been an OC and the Patriots, Patricia old team, have been in the top 10 in rushing attempts 5 out of the last 7 years.

In contrast Jim Bob Cooter's lions offenses have finished 30, 31, 31, and 18 (during Patricia's first year) in rush attempts.

Essentially, Patricia comes in last year and makes his OC, who historically never ran the ball, run the ball more than he ever has and then still fires him and hires a guy who runs the ball even more. 

Kerryon averaged 15 touches a game (and was putting up low end RB1 numbers) last year and with an even more run heavy offense I don't see any reason he can't get to 18-20.

I agree. And just to add to the analysis of Bevell's RB's, here were their ranks in 1 point PPR...

2006 - Chester Taylor : 303 rushes / 42 receptions.........................................#13 RB
2007 - Adrian Peterson/Chester Taylor : 394 rushes / 38 receptions............#5 RB (AP) and #19 RB (Taylor)
2008 - Adrian Peterson : 363 rushes / 21 receptions......................................#9 RB
2009 - Adrian Peterson 314 rushes / 43 receptions......................................#2 RB
2010 - Adrian Peterson : 283 rushes / 36 receptions......................................#5 RB
2011 - Marshawn Lynch : 285 rushes / 28 receptions.....................................#6 RB
2012 - Marshawn Lynch : 315 rushes / 23 receptions.....................................#5 RB
2013 - Marshawn Lynch : 301 rushes / 36 receptions.....................................#5 RB
2014 - Marshawn Lynch : 280 rushes / 37 receptions.....................................#4 RB
2015 - Thomas Rawls.......................#35 RB in just 7 games started: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/RawlTh00/gamelog/2015/
2016 - he helped make Christine Michael relevant for 7 games: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/M/MichCh00/gamelog/2016/
2017 - nothing to see here, yuck

Now I suppose one could say the top RB production has gotten worse more recently. But the "top RB" over the past 3 years while he was in Seattle was underwhelming to say the least. I believe Bevell and Patricia want to run the ball and with them having a talent who can do that quite well, he'll get pretty good volume (especially in today's day and age).

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