Jump to content
NBC Sports Edge Forums

Adam Thielen 2019 Outlook


Recommended Posts

3 hours ago, joshua18 said:

WRs better than Theilen each of the past 2 seasons: 

 

AB, Hopkins, MT, Hill. 

 

Very short list. Potential doesn't win fantasy titles.

 

Julio as well (at least at the various sites I've checked). 

Link to post
Share on other sites
  • Replies 492
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Top Posters In This Topic

Top Posters In This Topic

Popular Posts

Im a Vikings fan and can't say I am fanatical with verifying all of what Im typing or doing deep dives into what is wrong, so take this for what its worth....   Last year I believe AT's drop

nice sell high now

I’m starting.  Not a great matchup but cousins doesn’t look to throw to anyone but Thielen.  Granted he doesn’t throw a lot, Thielen should still get his (hopefully).

Posted Images

4 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Green and Allen aren't better than him. Neither are Hilton, Cooper, or Juju.

No point in going back and forth with a discussion that will change neither of our minds, but I will say this, I think most would agree that virtually everyone I mentioned will be drafted before Thielen.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, BGDDYKWL said:

No point in going back and forth with a discussion that will change neither of our minds, but I will say this, I think most would agree that virtually everyone I mentioned will be drafted before Thielen.

 

I'd agree. Doesn't mean they're better. Theilen in the 3rd rd again is a steal

Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, Leopard said:

Didn't theilen slow down the last 5/6 games of the season ? 

I'm glad you mention that, because so far, nobody said so, posted stats about it or gave a justification for it. In fact, this entire thread so far Is not about that fact at all.

giphy.webp

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I'm glad you mention that, because so far, nobody said so, posted stats about it or gave a justification for it. In fact, this entire thread so far Is not about that fact at all.

giphy.webp

 

I read somewhere that he may have been dealing with an injury. But hot damn that start would have extrapolated to one nasty season. Gotta figure every player wont have a great game EVERY game

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, joshua18 said:

WRs better than Theilen each of the past 2 seasons: 

 

AB, Hopkins, MT, Hill. 

 

Very short list. Potential doesn't win fantasy titles.

 

 

 

 

Yea, ask Larry Fitz owners how that works out. Couple of years ago he had a couple of great seasons but what we need to do is project. Not give a history lesson and assume nothing ever changes. Not calling for as precipitous fall for the Vikings offense but also don't see Thielen being the focus of offense or the passing game as he has been the last two years. Do you think he will get 143 or 153 targets again next season ? I'd peg him in the 125 or so range, 85-90 catches , just over 1,000 yards, 7-8 TD's . Somewhere around 230-240 in full PPR . That would put you in the mid teens over the last 3 years. Definitely not top 5 !

Link to post
Share on other sites
17 hours ago, howlin' 2 said:

Yea, ask Larry Fitz owners how that works out. Couple of years ago he had a couple of great seasons but what we need to do is project. Not give a history lesson and assume nothing ever changes. Not calling for as precipitous fall for the Vikings offense but also don't see Thielen being the focus of offense or the passing game as he has been the last two years. Do you think he will get 143 or 153 targets again next season ? I'd peg him in the 125 or so range, 85-90 catches , just over 1,000 yards, 7-8 TD's . Somewhere around 230-240 in full PPR . That would put you in the mid teens over the last 3 years. Definitely not top 5 !

 

Fitz is 8 years older than Theilen. If you're really comparing 2019 Theilen to 2018 Fitz you've got issues.

Link to post
Share on other sites

I think the single biggest issue is that Cousins was exposed as an overpaid scrub, and he’s not going anywhere next year.  He could regress further. Also, Dalvin Cook finally getting healthy seemed to give Cousins a more preferred safety valve. Cook looked great down the stretch and will be almost two full years removed from the ACL injury in Week 1.

 

I can see Thielen putting together a season that splits the difference between his 2018 halves, but this kind of inconsistency is troubling. It’s really difficult to time the market on a guy who’s leading the league one minute and putting up 2-23-0 lines the next.

Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, joshua18 said:

 

Fitz is 8 years older than Theilen. If you're really comparing 2019 Theilen to 2018 Fitz you've got issues.

Once again you grossly miss the point:wacko:,

 

Things change , not their age was the point. Fits had 2-3 bad years then got moved almost exclusively to a slot receiver under Arians with Palmer. It was like Larry found the fountain of youth :o No, his surroundings changed to his benefit.

 

Like Larry when Stefanski took over (and under Zimmer's edict I'm guessing) they went in a different direction. Thielen got less targets on the outside and they were longer throws as he wasn't running majority of the slot routes. Cousins isn't a strong armed sidelines kinda guy. Likes the easier throws in middle where he is more confident. 

If Adam stays mostly on the outside I'm not expecting top ten finish in '19. I could be wrong

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 5 months later...

Team managers who look at Thielen's season-ending numbers and then pay top dollar to acquire him are doing it wrong imo.

Diggs is a far superior overall talent, and will permanently leave Thielen in the dust in 2019.  

Link to post
Share on other sites
On 1/10/2019 at 10:52 AM, howlin' 2 said:

Easily Eight

After week 10 Thielin was #26 in our 1.0 PPR format. Several aren't better but i'd put AT @ about #15 talent wise. A few like Golladay, Sutton, Landry, Woods arguably may pass him as thiey hone their craft which puts him around 20. Not so sure he is a lock @ a WR1

 

                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                           
                         

Ewwwww. Only guy there I would take over him MAYBE is woods. Those other guys are flat out reaches. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Team managers who look at Thielen's season-ending numbers and then pay top dollar to acquire him are doing it wrong imo.

Diggs is a far superior overall talent, and will permanently leave Thielen in the dust in 2019.  

They’ve been saying this for two years haven’t they? You’ve taken diggs ahead of him two straight years? How’d that work out for you? I’m assuming not well. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

They’ve been saying this for two years haven’t they? You’ve taken diggs ahead of him two straight years? How’d that work out for you? I’m assuming not well. 

In 2018, I paid less for Diggs and went further than the team manager who paid more for Thielen.  So, yes, it worked out well.  But it will work out even better in 2019.

Link to post
Share on other sites
56 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Team managers who look at Thielen's season-ending numbers and then pay top dollar to acquire him are doing it wrong imo.

Diggs is a far superior overall talent, and will permanently leave Thielen in the dust in 2019.  

 

i love diggs' talent---and i agree that we have yet to see diggs play at the top-end of his talent---but you really need to watch thielen play ball: he's not your average WR---thielen does possess exceptional ability to track, to separate, and to secure.

the reason why thielen started off hot last season (i.e. WR1 over Julio, over OBJ, over Nuk, over Adams, over AB) is because he was outplaying Diggs and as a result receiving a ton of targets. in the first 7 weeks, thielen saw double-digit targets every sunday and put up 100+ yards every game. in week 8 he caught 7-of-7 and put up 103 yards (and 1 TD).

but in the back-half of the season, we saw dalvin cook return to form, finally getting more than 10 rushing attempts per game. here, thielen's targets went into single digits, including a season low vs miami: 2-of-2, 19 yards. but why (or how) throw to thielen when dalvin cook sees a season-high rushing attempt stat vs miami: 19 ru attempts, 136 yards, 2 TDs. in a 41-17 blowout, simply no reason to throw the ball (even cook just saw 2 targets, a season low for him).

in 2019, the vikings say they're running the ball, and while i believe in their intentions, this is dependent on cook's health (mattison will not command the field if cooks goes down). seems like thielen is a high-producer but game-script dependent: certainly in november when cook was on the field against green bay and not producing (and aaron rodgers threatening), thielen's 8-of-8 receptions for 125 yards and 1 TD was key (vikings won by 7).

vs green bay, thielen outplayed diggs (even though diggs had more targets), but the two weeks before (at chicago and vs the saints), diggs outplayed thielen. i'm saying "outplayed" but generally it comes down to targets (diggs saw 29 targets in these two games). simply put, i see the vikings as having two outstanding WRs, both extremely talented, and both subject to being undermined by game-script in what projects to be a run-heavy 2019.

i wouldn't begrudge anyone for taking thielen over diggs or diggs over thielen, but i see these two as pretty much "equal" on draft day. if i'm picking in the mid-third and both are there, i'd most likely go thielen because he's been the more reliable of the two regarding points per game. some might say it's separation, though i lean QB chemistry... either way, for two players of equalish talent points are points.

HarshFlimsyHalcyon-size_restricted.gif

34 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

They’ve been saying this for two years haven’t they? You’ve taken diggs ahead of him two straight years? How’d that work out for you? I’m assuming not well. 

 

PerkyGivingAsianwaterbuffalo-size_restri

  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Team managers who look at Thielen's season-ending numbers and then pay top dollar to acquire him are doing it wrong imo.

Diggs is a far superior overall talent, and will permanently leave Thielen in the dust in 2019.  

 

Unless he keeps getting nicked up and missing 2 or 3 games a year. That's like my only problem with diggs. Never played a full 16

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
  • 1 month later...
On ‎6‎/‎18‎/‎2019 at 10:46 AM, Sack Exchange said:

i wouldn't begrudge anyone for taking thielen over diggs or diggs over thielen, but i see these two as pretty much "equal" on draft day. if i'm picking in the mid-third and both are there, i'd most likely go thielen because he's been the more reliable of the two regarding points per game. some might say it's separation, though i lean QB chemistry... either way, for two players of equalish talent points are points.

 

 

 

Yeah, don't know what to do with this guy.  In mocks, he and Diggs are the best available WR routinely at the top of the 3rd for me.  I feel like it's a coin flip.  Yeah, if you can get Diggs one round later, then go Diggs.  But if you're at the top of the third, Diggs isn't coming back to you at the 4th.  So basically it's a 'who do trust more' decision.  I feel like Diggs is more talented, but as pointed out, he gets injured a little.  But Thielen's disappearance at the end of last year scares me for a third round pick.  I may punt the Minn WRs and look elsewhere.

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Every time I hear about Thielen & fantasy this year, I hear how he had over 100 yards receiving in each of his first 8 games and then he dropped off in the second half when the Vikings changed coordinators (his production only dipped in December). Therefore, he's being overrated and won't be as big of a part of the Viking offense with a greater focus on the run. It just seems absurd to discredit a guy for closing in on 1,000 yards receiving by week 8 and being on pace for 1,600 yards. The Vikings offense in general wasn't very good and they didn't show much cohesion. I'll gladly risk Kirk Cousins' second year chemistry with Thielen. As much as the Vikings want to run the ball more, Thielen's productivity is just as important for a balanced attack. He's incredibly talented.

 

 

Thielen's touchdown last night.

Edited by PhilaFanBoy
  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/8/2019 at 12:12 PM, CooL said:

Yeah, don't know what to do with this guy.  In mocks, he and Diggs are the best available WR routinely at the top of the 3rd for me.  I feel like it's a coin flip.  Yeah, if you can get Diggs one round later, then go Diggs.  But if you're at the top of the third, Diggs isn't coming back to you at the 4th.  So basically it's a 'who do trust more' decision.  I feel like Diggs is more talented, but as pointed out, he gets injured a little.  But Thielen's disappearance at the end of last year scares me for a third round pick.  I may punt the Minn WRs and look elsewhere.

Just draft Both,they're both startable, 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, The Jet said:

Debating between him, Keenan, and TY with my early 3rd round pick. Leaning towards Keenan and TY as of now based on their QB play. Really don't know how to feel about the drastic difference in AT's splits. 

 

You just like losing in fantasy don't you, TY? Really? The guy that can't stay healthy plus his qb can't stay healthy either

  • Like 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.


×
×
  • Create New...