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Adam Thielen 2019 Outlook


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17 minutes ago, The Jet said:

Debating between him, Keenan, and TY with my early 3rd round pick. Leaning towards Keenan and TY as of now based on their QB play. Really don't know how to feel about the drastic difference in AT's splits. 

Totally fair to be worried. I passed on Thielen. I’d go Keenan, TY (assuming Luck healthy), then Thielen in PPR.

 

36 minutes ago, klownkollege said:

Just draft Both,they're both startable, 

This is just bad advice. To spend two picks in rounds 2,3, and 4 and then to stack them both in your lineup knowing that the team will run a significant amount? No thanks. I’d consider with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in an Ariana offense but not with the Vikes.

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Im a Vikings fan and can't say I am fanatical with verifying all of what Im typing or doing deep dives into what is wrong, so take this for what its worth....   Last year I believe AT's drop

nice sell high now

I’m starting.  Not a great matchup but cousins doesn’t look to throw to anyone but Thielen.  Granted he doesn’t throw a lot, Thielen should still get his (hopefully).

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10 minutes ago, CooL said:

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This is just bad advice. To spend two picks in rounds 2,3, and 4 and then to stack them both in your lineup knowing that the team will run a significant amount? No thanks. I’d consider with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in an Ariana offense but not with the Vikes.

Wait, so you're saying they're so good it takes 3 of your picks to draft two players?

 

and how do you know they will be run first?  Both had more than 100 receptions last season.  The chemistry is only going to get better with cousins

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1 minute ago, nyda88 said:

they said to fade thielen last year, he went out and balled. They say to fade thielen this year, I'm not fading him this time around 

A dip from 11 to 4 targets/game under new OC Stefanski along with Chad Beebe likely taking over slot duties?  Hired run-centric Gary Kubiak, drafted a center in the first round and a 221-pound RB in the third?  Repeatedly stated they are committed to rushing?  I think it’s totally safe to fade him.

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8 minutes ago, BMcP said:

A dip from 11 to 4 targets/game under new OC Stefanski along with Chad Beebe likely taking over slot duties?  Hired run-centric Gary Kubiak, drafted a center in the first round and a 221-pound RB in the third?  Repeatedly stated they are committed to rushing?  I think it’s totally safe to fade him.

 

Yes, I agree with everything you just said. However...what's the best way to open up the passing game? Establish a solid run game. 

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1 minute ago, The G Man said:

 

Yes, I agree with everything you just said. However...what's the best way to open up the passing game? Establish a solid run game. 

Thanks - but there are two main concerns: 1) the Vikings figure to be passing less (and rushing more) in general as compared to (most of) last season; and 2) targets will be siphoned by Beebe in the slot and by Rudolph and Smith in what figures to be more 2-TE sets.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Thanks - but there are two main concerns: 1) the Vikings figure to be passing less (and rushing more) in general as compared to (most of) last season; and 2) targets will be siphoned by Beebe in the slot and by Rudolph and Smith in what figures to be more 2-TE sets.

You may be right BMcP, but at the end of the day I believe in the talent and the chemistry he has with Cousins. He may not put up 8 consecutive 100+ yard receiving games like he did at the beginning of last season, but I also don't think he's gonna be posting 20-40 receiving lines on a regular basis either. He's a back end WR1 in my book and I think will once again be a top 10-12 WR at the end of the season. 

JMHO...

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10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Thanks - but there are two main concerns: 1) the Vikings figure to be passing less (and rushing more) in general as compared to (most of) last season; and 2) targets will be siphoned by Beebe in the slot and by Rudolph and Smith in what figures to be more 2-TE sets.

 

I think a decent running game will lead to more big plays. The defense last year knew the Vikings could not run. So they were able to key on Diggs and Thielen. They still were able to generate good fantasy stats when teams knew that it was the only way for the Vikings to generate offense. 

If a defense has to worry about the run, it opens up more big plays for both Diggs and Thielen. So they might not have as many targets, but maybe more yards and touchdowns if the offensive line can open some holes for Cooks.

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50 minutes ago, rabaak said:

 

I think a decent running game will lead to more big plays. The defense last year knew the Vikings could not run. So they were able to key on Diggs and Thielen. They still were able to generate good fantasy stats when teams knew that it was the only way for the Vikings to generate offense. 

If a defense has to worry about the run, it opens up more big plays for both Diggs and Thielen. So they might not have as many targets, but maybe more yards and touchdowns if the offensive line can open some holes for Cooks.

 

 

But yes I agree, look at the saints for example who have one of the top rushing offenses in the league and can support a top WR.

Steelers have supported two wrs and a RB

I mean we can keep going, some offenses can support a lot of fantasy assets ....people are sleeping I'd honestly take thielen in the 2nd or 3rd depending where I land or who's left

I just don't think it's out the realm of possibilities for diggs thielen and cooks to have great fantasy seasons, could go down but it won't be much

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I'm more concerned (I think) about his 2d half fade last year than any supposed focus on the run. Did teams realize they needed to focus more on Thielen, opening it up for Diggs?   Sure they want to run more, all teams hope to establish a balance. That doesn't mean they will be "run oriented." And that relies on Cook staying healthy, which is a risky prospect.

arg - add this to my "guys I'm unsure of" list lol

 

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Big plays might be there - I’m just saying the volume will almost certainly diminish (in the passing game).  I don’t think it’s even debatable that the 2019 Vikings will be run-oriented - everything they have said and done, dating back to the tail-end of last season, confirms that.

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Thielen is a volume and scheme dependent WR whose volume and scheme were sent to the scrap heap in the second half of the season.  But take that in the third round if you wish.  Please.

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20 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Thielen is a volume and scheme dependent WR whose volume and scheme were sent to the scrap heap in the second half of the season.  But take that in the third round if you wish.  Please.

Isn't every WR volume dependent?

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1 hour ago, SharkSwimmer said:

No, some WRs are good enough to have huge games with only 5-6 targets.  Thielen is not really one of them.

In games with 7 targets or less Thielen had 6 games. 4 of 6 were still at least double digit points in full point PPR format. Thielen had 153 targets and and caught 113 of those, so he does get volume, but even when that volume is slightly low, he still performed. 3rd round is a safe place for him to be drafted.

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17 minutes ago, dontclapGonorrhea said:

In games with 7 targets or less Thielen had 6 games. 4 of 6 were still at least double digit points in full point PPR format. Thielen had 153 targets and and caught 113 of those, so he does get volume, but even when that volume is slightly low, he still performed. 3rd round is a safe place for him to be drafted.

Again, after DeFilippo was fired, Thielen saw a total of 12 targets ROS over the course of three games.  Draft in the third at your peril.

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BMcP--

Don't disturb the Thielen Truthers with logic.  They want to extrapolate his first half numbers or career average or fantasy points per route run or whatever the stat du jour is, and dream of that excellent value they are going to hook in the third round.  They have it all planned out.

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31 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Again, after DeFilippo was fired, Thielen saw a total of 12 targets ROS over the course of three games.  Draft in the third at your peril.

And the Shanny zone scheme was brought in this offseason. Not the scheme that was run after DeFilippo was fired. It is a great scheme for offensive production at both the RB and WR positions.

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18 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Again, after DeFilippo was fired, Thielen saw a total of 12 targets ROS over the course of three games.  Draft in the third at your peril.

Was it Defilippo, or the league realizing that the Vikings had no run game?? Thus allowing the defense to have extra defenders cover Thielen.  

 

If you watched the Vikings, later in the year they had to go to a quick throwing scheme or Cousins would have been killed. The offensive line was almost as bad pass blocking as run blocking. So it was three steps and throw for Cousin or get sacked. If your defense knows that, shutting Thielen down isn't hard during that time frame.

Hopefully with another year, Brian O'Neill and the rookie Bradbury will give the Vikings a functional offensive line. And the offensive tactic of pass quickly because that is all we can do will be history.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, devaster said:

And the Shanny zone scheme was brought in this offseason. Not the scheme that was run after DeFilippo was fired. It is a great scheme for offensive production at both the RB and WR positions.

Really more the “X” - not sure how much Thielen will play at split end.

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2 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Really more the “X” - not sure how much Thielen will play at split end.

Should still be plenty of targets to go around. And a more effective run game will open things up.

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6 minutes ago, rabaak said:

Was it Defilippo, or the league realizing that the Vikings had no run game??

 

 

DeFilippo.  Zimmer eventually became exasperated with the lack of emphasis on the run and predictably won the power struggle.  That marked a radical shift in offensive philosophy which is sure to continue this season.

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1 minute ago, devaster said:

Should still be plenty of targets to go around. And a more effective run game will open things up.

Perhaps - based off of what happened after Stefanski took over, I’m not willing to gamble a third on that outcome.

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Just now, BMcP said:

Perhaps - based off of what happened after Stefanski took over, I’m not willing to gamble a third on that outcome.

They were running the zone scheme in the 1st preseason game with Kubiak up in the booth. Stefanski is a puppet at this point. Learning to implement Kubiak's scheme.

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