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Adam Thielen 2019 Outlook


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Im a Vikings fan and can't say I am fanatical with verifying all of what Im typing or doing deep dives into what is wrong, so take this for what its worth....   Last year I believe AT's drop

nice sell high now

I’m starting.  Not a great matchup but cousins doesn’t look to throw to anyone but Thielen.  Granted he doesn’t throw a lot, Thielen should still get his (hopefully).

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Ok, so here are Thielen's numbers in the last 9 games.  One is a postseason game. I also prorated the numbers to see what his production would be in a 16 game season using those last 9:

Date Score Type Rec Tgt Yds Y/R Long TD
29-Sep L 6-16 Reg 2 6 6 3 6 0
22-Sep W 14-34 Reg 3 5 55 18.3 35 1
15-Sep L 16-21 Reg 5 8 75 15 30 0
8-Sep W 12-28 Reg 3 3 43 14.3 23 1
27-Jan L 26-7 Post 2 3 18 9 10 0
30-Dec L 24-10 Reg 3 4 38 12.7 18 0
23-Dec W 27-9 Reg 5 6 80 16 40 0
16-Dec W 17-41 Reg 2 2 19 9.5 14 0
10-Dec L 7-21 Reg 5 7 70 14 35 0
Total     30 44 404 111.8 211 2
16 game prorated     53.33333 78.22222 718.2222    

3.555556

 

So if he keeps this up, we can expect him to be the WR50 last season in non-PPR: 92.8 points.  That is equivalent to Jordy Nelson last year who scored 93.7 points.

 

Being that this has now been going on for 9 games straight, I really don't see things turning around.  If they do, this is a massive buy low opportunity, but I wouldn't pay much for Thielen at this point.

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50 minutes ago, Smoketheclay said:

Ok, so here are Thielen's numbers in the last 9 games.  One is a postseason game. I also prorated the numbers to see what his production would be in a 16 game season using those last 9:

Date Score Type Rec Tgt Yds Y/R Long TD
29-Sep L 6-16 Reg 2 6 6 3 6 0
22-Sep W 14-34 Reg 3 5 55 18.3 35 1
15-Sep L 16-21 Reg 5 8 75 15 30 0
8-Sep W 12-28 Reg 3 3 43 14.3 23 1
27-Jan L 26-7 Post 2 3 18 9 10 0
30-Dec L 24-10 Reg 3 4 38 12.7 18 0
23-Dec W 27-9 Reg 5 6 80 16 40 0
16-Dec W 17-41 Reg 2 2 19 9.5 14 0
10-Dec L 7-21 Reg 5 7 70 14 35 0
Total     30 44 404 111.8 211 2
16 game prorated     53.33333 78.22222 718.2222    

3.555556

 

So if he keeps this up, we can expect him to be the WR50 last season in non-PPR: 92.8 points.  That is equivalent to Jordy Nelson last year who scored 93.7 points.

 

Being that this has now been going on for 9 games straight, I really don't see things turning around.  If they do, this is a massive buy low opportunity, but I wouldn't pay much for Thielen at this point.

Yeah but if you extrapolate the last 4 games of this season to a 16 game regular season he scores 12 touchdowns.

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1 hour ago, Smoketheclay said:

 

Re-check your math.

 

its 716 yards and 8 TDs, which is still really bad

Math was spot on. Adam Thielen has 3 touchdowns in 4 games. That’s 12 touchdowns in 16 games if we want to extrapolate.

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16 hours ago, dsrich said:

Math was spot on. Adam Thielen has 3 touchdowns in 4 games. That’s 12 touchdowns in 16 games if we want to extrapolate.

 

In the last 2 seasons there have been three WR that scored 2 TD rushing.  0 had more.

Cordarrelle Patterson 

Isaiah McKenzie

Curtis Samuel 

 

Extrapolating a WR's RB stats makes zero sense

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35 minutes ago, Smoketheclay said:

 

In the last 2 seasons there have been three WR that scored 2 TD rushing.  0 had more.

Cordarrelle Patterson 

Isaiah McKenzie

Curtis Samuel 

 

Extrapolating a WR's RB stats makes zero sense

 

Nothing I said was incorrect though.

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On 10/1/2019 at 9:47 AM, goincommando said:

I'm personally looking to buy.  The offensive scheme doesn't inspire much confidence, but it's hard to believe his value will ever be any lower.

 

I agree.  I bought what I feel like was pretty low on him this week by giving Tyler Boyd for him.

It's just hard to believe Thielen doesn't improve.  I mean, his stat lines last year were out of this world in that first half of the season.  I know the OC changed and the focus has changed....But can you really just keep ignoring a weapon like that?  

It's amazing the Vikes have went from throwing to much under the old OC and now they run too much lol.  Is it that hard to be balanced?  Maybe they should get their old OC back and have him call half the game....And have the new guy call the other half lol.

I just think some big games are bound to come.....Thielen is too good of a player.

 

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He really trailed off the second half last year so I don't think we'll ever see a run like he had to start last year. Certainly could get the squeaky wheel treatment but Diggs is squeaking too. Realistically Thielen is a middle of the pack WR2. 

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Good post with the game logs. I think you have to look at the scores to see why there might be a sense of uncertainty/optimism, though.

Other than the Packers game, these are all very one sided. If the Vikings can run all over their opponent, they are very successful. If they're facing a good team, they hit a brick wall.

This approach isn't going to satisfy the team's expectations, especially in the NFC North this year (who also have to deal with the NFC East.) Combined with the clear frustration in the locker room, I think a shift in play calling is in the cards.

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3 minutes ago, Mr White said:

Good post with the game logs. I think you have to look at the scores to see why there might be a sense of uncertainty/optimism, though.

Other than the Packers game, these are all very one sided. If the Vikings can run all over their opponent, they are very successful. If they're facing a good team, they hit a brick wall.

This approach isn't going to satisfy the team's expectations, especially in the NFC North this year (who also have to deal with the NFC East.) Combined with the clear frustration in the locker room, I think a shift in play calling is in the cards.

I think a more balanced play calling is beneficial to the whole offense. I have shares of Diggs, Thielen, and a lot of Cook.. But I'd like to see these receivers more involved to keep Defenses honest. They're both absolute studs too, crazy how they have hardly been involved to this point. I hope I am wrong, but the "Squeaky Wheel" narrative probably won't happen on a Zimmer lead team. 

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