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Tyler Lockett 2019 Outlook


urban2014
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targets vs. Wade Phillips' Rams D since 2017:   3,4   6,4   4   He's scored a touchdown against them his last three games.    He's averaged about 5 targets a game over 40+ games in that span.  His three big target games this season came against the Saints, Steelers, Bucs, ranked 3,4,5 vs. the run this season.  Saints and Bucs have been bad vs. the pass, and he had his huge games against them.  Steelers; he was contained for 79 yards on 12 targets against a decent pass defense.   Also, 2 of those big target games came in the first 3 weeks of the season when there weren't as many options in the passing game.

Rams rank 11th vs run this year, 15th vs. pass  (ppr per game points against rankings).   Carson has gone over 100 in the two games he's faced Rams this year and last:  Seahawks will probably establish the run.

Hard to expect more than 6 targets for Lockett this week.  Historically, he has been efficient.  Interestingly, LAR have had their worst games against the pass this year all at home:  WK 4 (tampa) WK 8 (cin)  WK 12 (bal).     In the context of all this, prediction is probably along the lines of 3-4 catches, 40-60 yards, decent chance of a score =  13 ppr points.    lots of risk when you can't expect huge volume.

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3 hours ago, dashoe said:

 

How am I writing off the last 3 games when I am clearly stating that the last 3 games with 10% market share are relevant because they indicate a new trend emerging?

I ignore the standard deviation? I love it when guys just throw terms around but it is clear they don't understand them. Tell me what the "standard deviation" is in terms of his target distribution? Did you calculate it or did you think it was just something clever to say because, well it just sounds clever? The standard deviation in the way u are attempting to apply it would simply tell me how near or far the individual targets are to the average of the targets. The standard deviation will change the fact that lockett had a signifciant target share before his injury and a lower target share post injury. You are really trying to complicate this topic when it really is very simple.  In fantasy we look at trends and what is trending based on the data we get every week to help us make lineup decisions. 

Lockets target volume maybe inconsistent but his target share pre-injury was not inconsistent.  His lower target share for the last 3 games is also consistent thus far

I don't know if you're trolling or not.

His game by game target share ranges from 10% to 42% if you exclude the last three games.  He's rarely even close to the 25% target share you quoted.  And more often than not, well below it. 

The point being that on a game by game basis, he's inconsistent.   Who knows why that is.    Maybe it's matchup driven. 

But to look at the average target share you quoted of 25% (by the way, it's closer to 23%)  and expect that Lockett will get around that is unsound.  

So if he gets 30% of the targets this week, are you going to say the trend is over?   Or are you going to go with your narrative and say, "whelp...guess he's healthy".

 

 

 

 

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How amazing is it that 3 weeks ago the guy goes down in the SF game.  We all had a heart attack because we needed him.  And as it turns out I would have made the playoffs if he actually sat out.  I lost the last 2 games by single digit points and my backup wr would have gotten those points.  Incredible.  Fantasy football is pure evil.

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19 minutes ago, atdharris said:

I am considering Anderson, Pascal or even Doyle over Lockett. For all we know he could go catchless or 1 catch again this week.I'm just too skidish right now


I'm in the same boat. I'm strongly considering Anthony Miller or Zach Pascal over him. No confidence whatsoever. None of us can afford one of these dud games again.

Edited by jagsfan05
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32 minutes ago, timexsocialclub said:

It was either Beasley or Mostert in a 10 team league. We'll see how it plays out. More than anything it relieves me of the anxiety of debating whether or not to start him.

 

And also opens up the possibility of him going off for someone else's team. You should have just kept him on your bench.

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8 minutes ago, Dr. Whom said:

Jalen Ramsey should shut him down easily if he’s healthy...different excuses every week with this loser

 

I am not sure Ramsey will shadow him. Lockett plays out of the slot. Does Ramsey cover that position? I assumed he'd play someone like Metcalf. 

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8 minutes ago, dmb3684 said:

 

And also opens up the possibility of him going off for someone else's team. You should have just kept him on your bench.

100%.   It's likely that he has another blowup game this season.  Someone is going to pick him up and start him.

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10 minutes ago, K197040 said:

100%.   It's likely that he has another blowup game this season.  Someone is going to pick him up and start him.

I have a feeling that he'll break out of his slump this week.  I think that Ramsey will be on D.K. Metcalf or Josh Gordon.

Edited by sjm76
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Just now, FitzMagic said:

Said every OBJ owner this season. 🤣

Lockett has had 2 games over 40 points in my PPR league this season, though.  Can't say the same about OBJ.  I think they will focus on getting Lockett the ball again this week.  Just a feeling, but if he doesn't do anything again and you happen to advance, bench him for the rest of the season.

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3 minutes ago, K197040 said:

How are you going to make that call before game time?

If I find out for sure that Ramsey will be shadowing Lockett before the game then Lockett will be on my bench.  But if nothing is known before kickoff, I'm not sure what I'll do.  Maybe I'll flip a coin with him and my other option.

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4 hours ago, panthersfan75 said:

Fake News...Dissly made Wilson look great and then Hollister for a while until he turned back into Hollister. Now there is nobody to throw to since Lockett is easily covered by most competent corners

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