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Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


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Williams is going to be the main guy barring an injury. Chiefs have fully endorsed him as that. I’m not sure if you have watched all of the games after Hunt was gone but he way over exceeded expectations. In every aspect. 

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It's ironic that after months of discussing, debating McCoy, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, and Thompson that the most valuable Chiefs RB turned out to be Hyde.

If McCoy comes to chiefs and pushes Williams out, I am not drafting next year until about 20 minutes before the season begins 

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On 7/22/2019 at 8:40 AM, JoeJoe88 said:

Hmmm, I guess the Chiefs disagree with your in-depth analysis since they let both of those guys walk. I think I’ll trust Andy Reid’s opinion over yours, no offense of course. 

 

Andy Reid's opinion, up until December when his hand was forced by injury and suspension, was that Williams was 4th on the Depth Chart.

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17 hours ago, Bronco Billy said:

 

So can we assume you’re pimping CJ Anderson as a top RB also?  He outrushed Williams by 96 yards over each guy’s last 5 games.

Awwww, what an adorable straw man argument. But I'll play your reindeer game.....If CJ Anderson were named the starting rb of the LA Rams with no competition behind him (as is the case with Williams).....you better believe I would be "pimping him" hard. 

Next question

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41 minutes ago, Bronco Billy said:

just like CJA’s success at the end of last year did nothing for his job security going into this season.

Again, you're comparing two radically different situations.

 

Williams wasn't stepping in for a consensus Top 5  running back last year like Anderson was.  It didn't matter what CJA did, he was no threat to Gurley long-term.  Damien didn't have to worry about that.  He was asked to step up, and did so admirably.  He exceeded everyone's expectations, including I'm sure Reids, and in turn was rewarded with an extension.  He's been showered with praise from the staff all off-season.  If you believe the JUCO kid with one year of D1 experience under his belt or Plodfather Hyde are real threats to his job this year, then by all means grab them.  

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53 minutes ago, Dsr2389 said:

Williams is going to be the main guy barring an injury. Chiefs have fully endorsed him as that. I’m not sure if you have watched all of the games after Hunt was gone but he way over exceeded expectations. In every aspect. 

 

Some believe that despite those numbers the chiefs lost 3of their last 4 regular season games because of williams

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16 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Some believe that despite those numbers the chiefs lost 3of their last 4 regular season games because of williams

 

How?

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And to be fair, he played for the crappy dolphins, for a crappy coach.....

I trust Andy Reid to make him into a stud this season

 

Edited by CABLE87
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33 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

Some believe that despite those numbers the chiefs lost 3of their last 4 regular season games because of williams

Yikes what?

 

He was clearly one of their best players at the end of the season, and was surprisingly better overall for the team than Hunt. Apart from being better at creating yards and scoring(1.67 yards created per carry vs 1.57, and 2.0 TD/G vs 0.9 TD/G), he was a vastly better pass blocker than Hunt last year(Williams was one of the top pass blockers in the league last year, allowing 0 pressures in 20+ opportunities over 5 games started) and was also much better when the box was stacked against him than Hunt(6.6 v 2.3 YPC). Other metrics all point to Williams being the better RB than Hunt in KC. In 3 games D Williams had a DYAR of 79(26.3 per game) compared to Hunts only 131 over 11 games(11.9 per game). D Williams DVOA was a whopping and super elite 26.5%, while Hunts was a pedestrian 8.7%.

 

Basically Hunt was putting up replacement level numbers with KC, and D Williams came in and super-charged the output at the position for KC, and was without question an upgrade over Hunt.

 

And in the playoffs, Williams put the KC team on his back and his alone and almost beat New England despite the major falter of the rest of the offense and coaching staff. If Mahomes hadn’t overthrown him badly while wide open in the end zone he would have had 4 TDs in that game and single handedly willed KC to the SB.

 

But I guess “some believe” Williams is a lizard person as well, so that’s how seriously we should take those kinds of statements.

Edited by elroypedro
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Further, D Williams seems to be THE sole bright spot of the KC Chiefs in the playoffs, THE leader of the offense, and THE only reason that the team was competitive in the playoffs.

 

In the two playoff games, here are D Williams’ stats:

35 carries, 169 yards, 2 TDs

10 receptions, 91 yards, 2 TDs

 

And the ENTIRE rest of the team stats combined, including Mahomes, Tyreek, Watkins, Kelce, Ware, Darrel Williams, etc:

10 carries, 52 yards, 3 TDs

33 receptions, 411 yards, 1 TD

 

Oh and Kareem Hunt’s only playoff game, a loss to the lowly Titans:

11 carries, 42 yards, 1 TD

3 receptions, 5 yards, 0 TD

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2 hours ago, Dsr2389 said:

Williams is going to be the main guy barring an injury. Chiefs have fully endorsed him as that. I’m not sure if you have watched all of the games after Hunt was gone but he way over exceeded expectations. In every aspect. 

Gotta be careful with players that have a small sample size + a lot of success. Seems to burn people that select the player high the next year

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21 minutes ago, Ryansm11 said:

Is this guy any good? 

 

I picked him and.or had him on watch list most years he played in Miami. He had many flashes there but was injured one time and other times he never really got a shot.  Here is a good article explaining his time in Miami plus what happened last season and what his projection likely is:

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/can-damien-williams-thrive-in-a-featured-role-2019-fantasy-football/

 

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

As we come down the home stretch of the NFL (and fantasy football) offseason, the arguments about the league’s top RBs are heating up. The RB position is the most highly-coveted in fantasy football, because landing a stud back can win you a championship. Conversely, whiffing on a back early can cost you dearly. One back drawing some strong differing opinions among fantasy owners is the Chiefs’ Damien Williams. Momentum (and ADP) is picking up for Williams, but what can we expect from him in 2019?

Practice fast mock drafts with our fantasy football software >>

HOW DID HE GET HERE?
Williams was drafted by the Dolphins in 2015 after two promising seasons with Oklahoma. He spent the first four years of his career as a change-of-pace back where he did most of his work in the receiving game. He racked up 1,210 scrimmage yards on 218 total touches in his Miami tenure, scoring nine total TDs in the process. Though his output was small, Williams was very efficient with his limited workload, compiling a very healthy 5.6 yards per touch and shining as a receiver out of the backfield.

Williams took on an extended role with the Dolphins during the 2017 season after Jay Ajayi’s trade to Philadelphia ahead of Week 9 and split work with Kenyan Drake from Weeks 9-12. Williams looked to be the more productive back during that time, though a shoulder injury  derailed what could have been a promising finish to the season. He missed the final five games of 2017 and left Miami for Kansas City in 2018.

Williams played backup to Kareem Hunt, taking on little work before Hunt was cut from the Chiefs for a domestic violence incident late in the year. Williams started the last three games of the regular season, where he totaled generous stat lines of 34/203/3 rushing and 14/119/1 receiving.

His production increased even more in the playoffs, where he racked up lines of 35/159/2 rushing and 10/91/2 receiving in two games. Williams enjoyed a magical finish to the season, totaling a ridiculous 69/362/5 rushing line and a 24/210/3 receiving line over the final five games of the year, including the playoffs. That works out to an average of 114 scrimmage yards, 4.8 receptions, and 1.6 TDs per contest. Those are solid RB1 numbers. Though it’s still a small sample size, the talent is there for Williams to carry his end-of-season momentum into 2018 and continue to produce at a high level.

TOP OF THE DEPTH CHART?
Possibly the biggest fantasy concern for Williams is his usage. He’s joined by Carlos Hyde, Darrell Williams, and rookie Darwin Thompson in the backfield. Despite offseason speculation that Hyde will share some backfield duties, Williams looks like the favorite to handle a majority of the work in Kansas City’s high-octane offense. Over the last month and a half, Williams has received high praise from offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and most recently, head coach Andy Reid. Said Reid of Williams, “We’re asking him to be the full-time starter for the year,” and “He’s earned the right to be that guy.”

Darrell Williams is a complimentary back at best who is coming off a hamstring injury suffered in last year’s playoffs. Hyde is a quality backup, but he’s playing on his fourth team in the last two years and isn’t a likely threat to steal significant touches from Damien Williams. It’s impossible to say with complete certainty that Williams will handle the majority of the backfield work, but all signs point to that being the case.

Check out all of our fantasy football player profiles >>

A HISTORY OF ANDY REID RBs
How will Williams fare in his first season as the lead back in an offense? If history repeats itself, Williams is in good shape. Take a look at Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt in their first year with Andy Reid:

Player    Year    Rush Att    Rush Yds    Rush TD    Rec    Rec Yds    Rec TD    Scrimmage Yards    Total TDs
Jamaal Charles    2013    259    1,287    12    70    693    7    1,980    19
Kareem Hunt    2017    272    1,327    8    53    455    3    1,782    11
 
Both Charles and Hunt had the best statistical seasons of their respective careers in their first year with Andy Reid. Charles led the league in scrimmage yards, rushing TDs and total TDs, and Hunt was the rushing champ. Could Williams be in for a similar run in his first full year as a starter in Andy Reid’s offense? Let’s hope so. Williams has all the tools necessary to succeed in a featured role, including pass-catching ability. This allows him to be a three-down back and rack up the touches. Hunt and Charles averaged 327 total touches between the two seasons listed above, and if Williams sees a similar workload, his production will be off-the-charts good. Using that touch total multiplying it by Williams’ career 5.6 yards per touch average, the numbers work out to 1,831 scrimmage yards. Obviously, his total usage has been a small sample size, so some regression is expected, but it won’t fall off tremendously.

Expect Williams to explode for a breakout season and reward fantasy owners who dare to draft him in the back of the second Round. Currently being drafted at RB13, I like him more than the four guys going right before him in Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, and Joe Mixon. Williams might be a first-time lead back, but his injury concerns are minimal, and his offense may be the best in the league. The upside is tremendous for a breakout campaign. Williams will be a league-winner this year at his current price. Go get him!

2019 Projections: 240 rush attempts, 1,125 rushing yards, 63 receptions, 525 receiving yards, 12 total TDs, RB8

 

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7 minutes ago, nine9s said:

 

I picked him and.or had him on watch list most years he played in Miami. He had many flashes there but was injured one time and other times he never really got a shot.  Here is a good article explaining his time in Miami plus what happened last season and what his projection likely is:

 

https://www.fantasypros.com/2019/07/can-damien-williams-thrive-in-a-featured-role-2019-fantasy-football/

 

Beyond our fantasy football content, be sure to check out our award-winning slate of Fantasy Football Tools as you prepare for your draft this season. From our free mock Draft Simulator – which allows you to mock draft against realistic opponents – to our Draft Assistant – which optimizes your picks with expert advice – we’ve got you covered this fantasy football draft season.

As we come down the home stretch of the NFL (and fantasy football) offseason, the arguments about the league’s top RBs are heating up. The RB position is the most highly-coveted in fantasy football, because landing a stud back can win you a championship. Conversely, whiffing on a back early can cost you dearly. One back drawing some strong differing opinions among fantasy owners is the Chiefs’ Damien Williams. Momentum (and ADP) is picking up for Williams, but what can we expect from him in 2019?

Practice fast mock drafts with our fantasy football software >>

HOW DID HE GET HERE?
Williams was drafted by the Dolphins in 2015 after two promising seasons with Oklahoma. He spent the first four years of his career as a change-of-pace back where he did most of his work in the receiving game. He racked up 1,210 scrimmage yards on 218 total touches in his Miami tenure, scoring nine total TDs in the process. Though his output was small, Williams was very efficient with his limited workload, compiling a very healthy 5.6 yards per touch and shining as a receiver out of the backfield.

Williams took on an extended role with the Dolphins during the 2017 season after Jay Ajayi’s trade to Philadelphia ahead of Week 9 and split work with Kenyan Drake from Weeks 9-12. Williams looked to be the more productive back during that time, though a shoulder injury  derailed what could have been a promising finish to the season. He missed the final five games of 2017 and left Miami for Kansas City in 2018.

Williams played backup to Kareem Hunt, taking on little work before Hunt was cut from the Chiefs for a domestic violence incident late in the year. Williams started the last three games of the regular season, where he totaled generous stat lines of 34/203/3 rushing and 14/119/1 receiving.

His production increased even more in the playoffs, where he racked up lines of 35/159/2 rushing and 10/91/2 receiving in two games. Williams enjoyed a magical finish to the season, totaling a ridiculous 69/362/5 rushing line and a 24/210/3 receiving line over the final five games of the year, including the playoffs. That works out to an average of 114 scrimmage yards, 4.8 receptions, and 1.6 TDs per contest. Those are solid RB1 numbers. Though it’s still a small sample size, the talent is there for Williams to carry his end-of-season momentum into 2018 and continue to produce at a high level.

TOP OF THE DEPTH CHART?
Possibly the biggest fantasy concern for Williams is his usage. He’s joined by Carlos Hyde, Darrell Williams, and rookie Darwin Thompson in the backfield. Despite offseason speculation that Hyde will share some backfield duties, Williams looks like the favorite to handle a majority of the work in Kansas City’s high-octane offense. Over the last month and a half, Williams has received high praise from offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy and most recently, head coach Andy Reid. Said Reid of Williams, “We’re asking him to be the full-time starter for the year,” and “He’s earned the right to be that guy.”

Darrell Williams is a complimentary back at best who is coming off a hamstring injury suffered in last year’s playoffs. Hyde is a quality backup, but he’s playing on his fourth team in the last two years and isn’t a likely threat to steal significant touches from Damien Williams. It’s impossible to say with complete certainty that Williams will handle the majority of the backfield work, but all signs point to that being the case.

Check out all of our fantasy football player profiles >>

A HISTORY OF ANDY REID RBs
How will Williams fare in his first season as the lead back in an offense? If history repeats itself, Williams is in good shape. Take a look at Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt in their first year with Andy Reid:

Player    Year    Rush Att    Rush Yds    Rush TD    Rec    Rec Yds    Rec TD    Scrimmage Yards    Total TDs
Jamaal Charles    2013    259    1,287    12    70    693    7    1,980    19
Kareem Hunt    2017    272    1,327    8    53    455    3    1,782    11
 
Both Charles and Hunt had the best statistical seasons of their respective careers in their first year with Andy Reid. Charles led the league in scrimmage yards, rushing TDs and total TDs, and Hunt was the rushing champ. Could Williams be in for a similar run in his first full year as a starter in Andy Reid’s offense? Let’s hope so. Williams has all the tools necessary to succeed in a featured role, including pass-catching ability. This allows him to be a three-down back and rack up the touches. Hunt and Charles averaged 327 total touches between the two seasons listed above, and if Williams sees a similar workload, his production will be off-the-charts good. Using that touch total multiplying it by Williams’ career 5.6 yards per touch average, the numbers work out to 1,831 scrimmage yards. Obviously, his total usage has been a small sample size, so some regression is expected, but it won’t fall off tremendously.

Expect Williams to explode for a breakout season and reward fantasy owners who dare to draft him in the back of the second Round. Currently being drafted at RB13, I like him more than the four guys going right before him in Nick Chubb, Dalvin Cook, Todd Gurley, and Joe Mixon. Williams might be a first-time lead back, but his injury concerns are minimal, and his offense may be the best in the league. The upside is tremendous for a breakout campaign. Williams will be a league-winner this year at his current price. Go get him!

2019 Projections: 240 rush attempts, 1,125 rushing yards, 63 receptions, 525 receiving yards, 12 total TDs, RB8

 

 

I agree with some of this.

 

* on a personal note, I also have followed or owned D Williams in all 6/6 of my dynasty leagues since he was in Miami. He would have been a day 2 draft selection out of OU if he hadn’t been booted from the team his senior year. I picked him up in any leagues I didn’t already own him in when he signed in KC after NE showed interest but contract talks fell through. 

 

The thing I don’t agree with above is the projection. It is ridiculously low per touch. 

 

The above projection shows him with 303 touches, yet only 268.5 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR. Hmmmmm. If he gets 300 touches he WILL score 350+ points and be FANTASY RB1-3, without question. 

 

268.5/303 = 0.88 fantasy points per touch

 

D Williams avg points per touch in Miami = 1.19

avg career points per touch = 1.24

avg points per touch in KC = 1.35

 

303 x 1.19 = 360

303 x 1.24 = 375

303 x 1.35 = 409

 

Yeaaaaaah. Even if he regresses Allllllllll the way down to say 1.10, on 303 touches we would expect 333 points, aka RB 3 overall in 2018, just ahead of CMC.

 

Basically, there is a tiny chance he isn’t a top 5 RB, and there is realistically a very good chance he is RB1-3 overall if given 300 touches.

 

K Hunt had 325 touches in 2017 and was on pace for 301 last year.

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8 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

I agree with some of this.

 

* on a personal note, I also have followed or owned D Williams in all 6/6 of my dynasty leagues since he was in Miami. He would have been a day 2 draft selection out of OU if he hadn’t been booted from the team his senior year. I picked him up in any leagues I didn’t already own him in when he signed in KC after NE showed interest but contract talks fell through. 

 

The thing I don’t agree with above is the projection. It is ridiculously low per touch. 

 

The above projection shows him with 303 touches, yet only 268.5 fantasy points in 0.5 PPR. Hmmmmm. If he gets 300 touches he WILL score 350+ points and be FANTASY RB1-3, without question. 

 

268.5/303 = 0.88 fantasy points per touch

 

D Williams avg points per touch in Miami = 1.19

avg career points per touch = 1.24

avg points per touch in KC = 1.35

 

303 x 1.19 = 360

303 x 1.24 = 375

303 x 1.35 = 409

 

Yeaaaaaah. Even if he regresses Allllllllll the way down to say 1.10, on 303 touches we would expect 333 points, aka RB 3 overall in 2018, just ahead of CMC.

 

Basically, there is a tiny chance he isn’t a top 5 RB, and there is realistically a very good chance he is RB1-3 overall if given 300 touches.

 

K Hunt had 325 touches in 2017 and was on pace for 301 last year.

He’ll hit those point per touch numbers if he’s relegated to cop back and mostly catches passes in your PPR league.

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This is just so dumb.

This stupid math equation s--- that  @elroypedro comes up with just doesn't make sense. To get 375 points off 303 touches he would need to have one of the greatest seasons in the history of football. Like LT and Shaun Alexander level great.

250 Carries and 53 catches for 1200 and 600 yards means William's would have to get over 28 tds. To get to 375 fantasy point with 1.24 points per touch

Even to get to 333 ppints he would need 21 tds. With 1.10 points per touch

Not gonna happen.

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3 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

And 1.19 in 4 years in miami, and 1.24 over 5 years total in the NFL. So....

We went over this before. Players are more likely to have a higher points per touch ratio if they are mainly in limited roles/more pass catching than rushing. 

So..............

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18 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

This is just so dumb.

This stupid math equation s--- that  @elroypedro comes up with just doesn't make sense. To get 375 points off 303 touches he would need to have one of the greatest seasons in the history of football. Like LT and Shaun Alexander level great.

250 Carries and 53 catches for 1200 and 600 yards means William's would have to get over 28 tds. To get to 375 fantasy point with 1.24 points per touch

Even to get to 333 ppints he would need 21 tds. With 1.10 points per touch

Not gonna happen.

It’s ignorance or trolling to think that lol 

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14 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

This is just so dumb.

This stupid math equation s--- that  @elroypedro comes up with just doesn't make sense. To get 375 points off 303 touches he would need to have one of the greatest seasons in the history of football. Like LT and Shaun Alexander level great.

250 Carries and 53 catches for 1200 and 600 yards means William's would have to get over 28 tds. To get to 375 fantasy point with 1.24 points per touch

Even to get to 333 ppints he would need 21 tds. With 1.10 points per touch

Not gonna happen.

So if he gets 300 touches, as is the exact projection(Hunt had 325 in 2017, on pace for 301 in 2018, D Williams on pace for 297 in 2018 despite playing in only half of one of his 5 games started), then what do you expect his final fantasy total to be, in 0.5ppr?

 

My point is that even if he SEVERELY regresses in a major way, WAY below his average in KC, WAY below his career average, WAY below his average in Miami, WAY below Reid’s average starting RB(Hunt was WAY WAY WAY below Reid’s average starting RB himself), and was allllllllll the way down to under 1.0 FPPT next year, on 300 touches he would be bumping up to 300 fantasy points, aka RB4 overall, ahead of Zeke and just behind Kamara.

 

That is clearly somewhere in the very BOTTOM end for his projected outcome given 300 touches.

 

Again, how many fantasy points do you think he gets in 0.5ppr given 300 touches?

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