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Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


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1 minute ago, andypro77 said:

You must be really high on Penny then. The scheme and the volume for RB is Seattle assures that some RB gets some decent points.

 

See I feel like some people said that same exact thing about balitmore and Collins last year but I could  have some selective memory.

But yes I am big on penny. And Carson is a little injury prone who gets little recieving chances and penny was a first round draft pick who is apparently not 20 lbs heavier than his combine weight like last season. 

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It's ironic that after months of discussing, debating McCoy, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, and Thompson that the most valuable Chiefs RB turned out to be Hyde.

If McCoy comes to chiefs and pushes Williams out, I am not drafting next year until about 20 minutes before the season begins 

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1 minute ago, CABLE87 said:

So im just curious, why are people so afraid of williams

So, so, SO many reasons. He's been in the league for 5 years and never even had 50 carries or 25 receptions IN A SEASON. The hype is all  based on a very small sample size in an absolutely perfect situation. He had 5 games at the end of the season where he ran the ball. One of those games he had 13 carries for 103 yards. In the other 4 he went a very non-elite 5-38, 8-14, 10-49, 11-51. That hardly screams 'bellcow', which is what he needs to be if he's going in the mid-2nd.

And there's this: Can you think of anyone you know who plays fantasy football, or anyone fantasy football writer or web site that at any time in the past 5 years, until December of last year, who suggested that Damien Williams was a better RB than Carlos Hyde? Andy Reid signed Hyde literally the day after he was released by the Jags.

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11 minutes ago, CABLE87 said:

So im just curious, why are people so afraid of williams

Afraid is not the right word. But I do see some red flags, and in the first 2 rounds I prefer not to draw into red flags, to maximise my profits.

If he drops a round (or 2), suddenly he is one of my candidates, but around pick 24, I generally see better bargains.

 

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1 minute ago, Boudewijn said:

Afraid is not the right word. But I do see some red flags, and in the first 2 rounds I prefer not to draw into red flags, to maximise my profits.

If he drops a round (or 2), suddenly he is one of my candidates, but around pick 24, I generally see better bargains.

 

In the league I'm currently drafting in, Damien went #20. WAY too rich.

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7 hours ago, andypro77 said:

I don't get the same vibe with Carson. He's going in the mid 5th, which is a much better place to take a risk - all RBs at that point have some warts. I think Damien Williams is about the single worst pick in fantasy this year, if his ADP stays mid-2nd. I wouldn't be nearly as down on him if he was going mid-5th.

The funny thing is, Carson has been in the league 2 years and Williams has been in the league 5 years, and Carson had  more yards rushing last season than Williams has had in his entire career.

 

What does Williams past (career numbers in Miami) have to do with his potential as the starting RB for KC in 2019? What does what Williams did in 3/4 the season last year as a backup compared to Carson being a starting RB for the whole season have anything to do with it?

The whole implication that "Carson has more career rushing yds than Williams in the past so he must be a better fantasy option in 2019" makes literally no sense. Could Carson be a better option in 2019? Maybe. But it's absolutely not because "he had more rushing yds last season than Williams has had in his career." LOL

 

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1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

 

What does Williams past (career numbers in Miami) have to do with his potential as the starting RB for KC in 2019? What does what Williams did in 3/4 the season last year as a backup compared to Carson being a starting RB for the whole season have anything to do with it?

The whole implication that "Carson has more career rushing yds than Williams in the past so he must be a better fantasy option in 2019" makes literally no sense. Could Carson be a better option in 2019? Maybe. But it's absolutely not because "he had more rushing yds last season than Williams has had in his career." LOL

 

I mean....are you just going to ignore that Williams has been a turd for 96% of his career? Or are you simply using that myopic excuse of “Gase was his coach, so it doesn’t count”?  

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1 hour ago, ThreadKiller said:

What does Williams past (career numbers in Miami) have to do with his potential as the starting RB for KC in 2019?

Because he's been in the league for 5 seasons, and he's never been fantasy relevant. Players who are in the league for that long while not being fantasy relevant sometimes pop up for a brief period of time to become fantasy relevant, but generally they don't sustain it over the course of a full season.

As a matter of fact, I'll issue a challenge - has there ever been a player that was not fantasy relevant for 5 years who all of a sudden was being drafted with a high draft pick who actually lived up to that draft pick? There might be an example, but I can't think of one.

And once again, I'm not arguing against his potential to put up big points if he's the starting RB, unquestioned bellcow for KC this season. I'm arguing that it's very unlikely that he turns out to be that bellcow for the entire season.

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2 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

“Gase was his coach, so it doesn’t count”?  

I love that excuse. Until you realize that Gase got some decent fantasy seasons out of Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Jay Ajayi, and Kenyon Drake. Those guys put up some decent points in Gase's system, while Williams was on the same team and did nothing.

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7 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

Because he's been in the league for 5 seasons, and he's never been fantasy relevant. Players who are in the league for that long while not being fantasy relevant sometimes pop up for a brief period of time to become fantasy relevant, but generally they don't sustain it over the course of a full season.

As a matter of fact, I'll issue a challenge - has there ever been a player that was not fantasy relevant for 5 years who all of a sudden was being drafted with a high draft pick who actually lived up to that draft pick? There might be an example, but I can't think of one.

And once again, I'm not arguing against his potential to put up big points if he's the starting RB, unquestioned bellcow for KC this season. I'm arguing that it's very unlikely that he turns out to be that bellcow for the entire season.

 

Fair points, but your reasoning is confusing. "Chris Carson has more career yardage in the past than Damien Williams so by default he will have more yardage than Damien Williams in 2019." That just doesn't make sense. Carson very well could outperform Williams, but it will have literally nothing to do with how many yds Williams had as a backup to Kareem Hunt while Carson had yds as a starter for SEA."

It would be like saying "so and so will have more hr in 2019 because he has more career hrs" While the main point could end up being true, that absolutely isn't the reason.

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9 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

Because he's been in the league for 5 seasons, and he's never been fantasy relevant. Players who are in the league for that long while not being fantasy relevant sometimes pop up for a brief period of time to become fantasy relevant, but generally they don't sustain it over the course of a full season.

As a matter of fact, I'll issue a challenge - has there ever been a player that was not fantasy relevant for 5 years who all of a sudden was being drafted with a high draft pick who actually lived up to that draft pick? There might be an example, but I can't think of one.

And once again, I'm not arguing against his potential to put up big points if he's the starting RB, unquestioned bellcow for KC this season. I'm arguing that it's very unlikely that he turns out to be that bellcow for the entire season.

Michael Turner is the only example that comes to mind, though he only had 4 years in San Diego before going to Atlanta. Then he became the bellcow running back for a team with a good offense and put up 1700 rushing yards and 17 TDs (albeit on 376 carries. 376!).

I'm not a rousing supporter of Williams' but as the season creeps closer I'm beginning to get more and more intrigued, at least in the late 2nd.

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26 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

I love that excuse. Until you realize that Gase got some decent fantasy seasons out of Lamar Miller, Frank Gore, Jay Ajayi, and Kenyon Drake. Those guys put up some decent points in Gase's system, while Williams was on the same team and did nothing.

And if you count anyone who played under case as an OC, that opens up the door for a handful of outright elite fantasy seasons. DW apologists are really grasping at straws and leaning on that Gase excuse lol. 

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9 hours ago, andypro77 said:

So, so, SO many reasons. He's been in the league for 5 years and never even had 50 carries or 25 receptions IN A SEASON. The hype is all  based on a very small sample size in an absolutely perfect situation. He had 5 games at the end of the season where he ran the ball. One of those games he had 13 carries for 103 yards. In the other 4 he went a very non-elite 5-38, 8-14, 10-49, 11-51. That hardly screams 'bellcow', which is what he needs to be if he's going in the mid-2nd.

And there's this: Can you think of anyone you know who plays fantasy football, or anyone fantasy football writer or web site that at any time in the past 5 years, until December of last year, who suggested that Damien Williams was a better RB than Carlos Hyde? Andy Reid signed Hyde literally the day after he was released by the Jags.

I did. I owned D Williams in 6/6 dynasty leagues to start 2018. He is a better all around RB than Hyde and has been since I saw him play at OU. He struggled due to getting kicked off the team his St year and went from a day 2 draft pick to UDFA, and then was mismanaged despite elite production per opportunity in Miami.

 

Youre just playing this s--- narrative based analysis game and it isn’t right. There is plenty of statistical and film evidence showing just how good D Williams has been, is, and will be this year. He is one of the easier players in all of fantasy to project this year because of it. 

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53 minutes ago, andypro77 said:

As a matter of fact, I'll issue a challenge - has there ever been a player that was not fantasy relevant for 5 years who all of a sudden was being drafted with a high draft pick who actually lived up to that draft pick? There might be an example, but I can't think of one.


Yes. Justin Forsett.

 

41 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

Michael Turner is the only example that comes to mind, though he only had 4 years in San Diego before going to Atlanta. Then he became the bellcow running back for a team with a good offense and put up 1700 rushing yards and 17 TDs (albeit on 376 carries. 376!).


Not a good comparison. Everyone knew Turner was going to be a RB1 as soon as he got a full time opportunity. Turner even had standalone value as a backup behind LT and was the top handcuff/dynasty stash for several years before he signed with Atlanta. 
 

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1 hour ago, andypro77 said:

Because he's been in the league for 5 seasons, and he's never been fantasy relevant. Players who are in the league for that long while not being fantasy relevant sometimes pop up for a brief period of time to become fantasy relevant, but generally they don't sustain it over the course of a full season.

As a matter of fact, I'll issue a challenge - has there ever been a player that was not fantasy relevant for 5 years who all of a sudden was being drafted with a high draft pick who actually lived up to that draft pick? There might be an example, but I can't think of one.

And once again, I'm not arguing against his potential to put up big points if he's the starting RB, unquestioned bellcow for KC this season. I'm arguing that it's very unlikely that he turns out to be that bellcow for the entire season.

 

Justin Forsett...

Oh wait he busted also after taking the league by storm at the end of the year and then was drafted late 1st, early 2nd.

Also Michael Turner got paid after 4 years because he flashed the only reason the Chargers didn't keep him is they had a guy by the name of Ladanian Tomlinson.

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2 hours ago, andypro77 said:

Because he's been in the league for 5 seasons, and he's never been fantasy relevant. Players who are in the league for that long while not being fantasy relevant sometimes pop up for a brief period of time to become fantasy relevant, but generally they don't sustain it over the course of a full season.

As a matter of fact, I'll issue a challenge - has there ever been a player that was not fantasy relevant for 5 years who all of a sudden was being drafted with a high draft pick who actually lived up to that draft pick? There might be an example, but I can't think of one.

And once again, I'm not arguing against his potential to put up big points if he's the starting RB, unquestioned bellcow for KC this season. I'm arguing that it's very unlikely that he turns out to be that bellcow for the entire season.

Michael turner

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10 hours ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

Because he’s been a total trashcan for 71 of the 74 games he’s played in his career. 

 

Crazy that it happened in Miami and not KC

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1 hour ago, elroypedro said:

 He briefly won the starting job at Mia before Gase bungled the depth chart. He won the starting job in KC. 

 

Win the starting job in Miami? Didnt they trade ajayi away so he got a couple starts did very poorly then got injured then drake came in and dominated the rest of the season 

And win the starting job in KC? Didnt hunt get suspended and ware get injured so William's was chosen by default?

Now your just lying about stuff man. 

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You can obsess about his past lack of production all you want but the bottom line is he is an elite athlete in a prolific offense with 3 down skills. Only threat would be competition, but carlos is washed up and darwin is a small back from a small school

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1 minute ago, Ryansm11 said:

I’m so confused, am I drafting this guy 11th pick or not drafting him at all? You guys are all over the place. 

I’m his biggest supporter and I’ll go down in flames if he doesn’t bring a 2nd round return but there are very valid arguments for taking him high and not taking him at all. Otherwise there really is no grey area. The arguments that he’s a strong value in the 4th and 5th are completely and totally irrelevant. He will never be available there. If you want him you’ll have to pay. If you don’t...pass and grab someone you believe in

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If you think he will be bust this year it's because you think he will get injured.  That's all there is to it, because if he is healthy for sixteen there's no way he doesn't at least flirt with rb1 numbers in this offense.  

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26 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Win the starting job in Miami? Didnt they trade ajayi away so he got a couple starts did very poorly then got injured then drake came in and dominated the rest of the season 

And win the starting job in KC? Didnt hunt get suspended and ware get injured so William's was chosen by default?

Now your just lying about stuff man. 

 

He never had the chance in Miami that he has now in KC. I'm still not sure how the results in weeks 9-12 in 2017 (the only weeks he played after Ajayi was traded following week 7) have anything to do with how he might do in 2019 with an entirely different team and system?

 

Not that it matters, but while he shared time with Drake in those games, he ended that (4) game stretch with 34 carries for 149 yds and 12 catches for 105 yds. Skewed by a 69 yd run but lots of RBs numbers get skewed by one run.

Bottom line, what Williams did in 2017 with a different team in a timeshare with a coach who is a moron has NOTHING to do with his potential on a different team with a system that plays to his ability a bit more.

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1 minute ago, Lord_Varys said:

If you think he will be bust this year it's because you think he will get injured.  That's all there is to it, because if he is healthy for sixteen there's no way he doesn't at least flirt with rb1 numbers in this offense.  

100% true. There is very little threat on the depth chart behind him, and injury is the worry, as it is with every RB. And you say flirt with RB1 numbers, I believe if healthy there is very little chance he doesn’t flirt with RB1 overall numbers. It really is all(20+ fantasy points per game) or nothing(due to injury). I’ve been waiting for SOMEBODY to get to this point after all the stats.

 

Yours is the bottom line point. The only realistic fear for him is injury.

 

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3 minutes ago, ThreadKiller said:

I'm still not sure how the results in weeks 9-12 in 2017 (the only weeks he played after Ajayi was traded following week 7) have anything to do with how he might do in 2019 

I know, right?! How dare anybody use past performance as any indication of how a player might perform in the future. Just such a crazy method. 

Lmao. You Williams apologists are seriously all over the place. This will 100% be my favorite thread to revisit over the course of the season. 

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