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Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


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Just now, SenatorSpaceman said:

I know, right?! How dare anybody use past performance as any indication of how a player might perform in the future. Just such a crazy method. 

Lmao. You Williams apologists are seriously all over the place. This will 100% be my favorite thread to revisit over the course of the season. 

 

I mean you of course factor past performance in any evaluation but current situations/scenarios hold heavier weight in any sort of evaluation/observation. This thread will be dead during the season just like the 2017 Gurley one, as one side (whomever is wrong) will go quietly in the night, much like most quality posters on RW. 

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It's ironic that after months of discussing, debating McCoy, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, and Thompson that the most valuable Chiefs RB turned out to be Hyde.

If McCoy comes to chiefs and pushes Williams out, I am not drafting next year until about 20 minutes before the season begins 

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He has PATRICK MAHOMES AS HIS QB, it's the reason he was having crazy production late last season. You think defenses are stacking up the box to stop d will lmao

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Man, I got a lot of notifications since I last visited.

Here's the bottom line: Everyone who is pro-Williams is projecting him as the unquestioned, #1 bellcow in KC, and they are not taking into account the actual chances of him being that for a whole season - which are not great, and nowhere near as good as the players you have to pass on to select him in the mid-2nd.

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7 hours ago, Olliemets said:

Michael Turner is the only example that comes to mind

That's a pretty good example, I forgot about him.

But he was somewhat relevant. True Story: In my one keeper league, you can't keep anyone picked in rounds 1-4, making 5.01 a special pick. One year a guy trades his 2nd round pick the following season to move up a few spots to 5.01. He took Turner who was still in his last year in San Diego at the time.

At our drafts we reminisce about what a shrewd move that was.

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1 hour ago, CABLE87 said:

He has PATRICK MAHOMES AS HIS QB, it's the reason he was having crazy production late last season. You think defenses are stacking up the box to stop d will lmao

 

Just having an awesome qb is only part of it. Rodgers is unanimously top 5 and so is luck but they rarely have stud RBS and no one stacks the box on luck and Rodgers.

The other part is can you name the last time Andy reid had an RB that wasn't good? No matter who the qb was mcnabb. kolb. Vick. Smith. Mahomes. Hes always had a studly rb however there is an exception to every rule

 

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6 hours ago, cjw99 said:

You can obsess about his past lack of production all you want but the bottom line is he is an elite athlete in a prolific offense with 3 down skills. Only threat would be competition, but carlos is washed up and darwin is a small back from a small school

If Darwin is a small back from a school with no shot at the job then why did Reid draft him?  Reid loves that type of rb.  Foolish comment.  

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12 hours ago, andypro77 said:

As a matter of fact, I'll issue a challenge - has there ever been a player that was not fantasy relevant for 5 years who all of a sudden was being drafted with a high draft pick who actually lived up to that draft pick? There might be an example, but I can't think of one.

I've seen this argument a couple times in the thread, in various wordings, and I was curious. Therefore I looked on Pro Football reference for RBs who:

- were underwhelming in the first 4 years of their career (under 500 yards)
- after that suddenly had a 1000 yard season.

That's setting the bar fairly low, but I wanted to have some results I could look at. If I take the period since 2000 (modern era), I find the following names:

Player                        From    To       Tm            1000+ year     
Reuben Droughns    2001    2003    DET/DEN   2005    1601
- Barely topped 100 yards in his first three seasons, then exploded in 2004/2005 after Clinton Portis was shipped to Washington, and had 1400 and 1600 yards seasons.


Ladell Betts              2002    2005    WAS           2006    1599
- 4 seasons of 400 yards, and then 1599 the year after (here is is again) Clinton Portis got injured. After that, had one season of 509 and then it was back to the barely nothings.


Justin Fargas           2003    2005    OAK            2007    1197
- 3 seasons of nothing, then 750 yards behind Lamont Jordan, and then had a 1200 and a 900 season - and then again faded.


That's the most convincing examples I could find. So yes, sometimes nobodies go from turdness to relative greatness. It's not common, but it has happened.

Edited by Boudewijn
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4 minutes ago, Boudewijn said:

I've seen this argument a couple times in the thread, in various wordings, and I was curious. Therefore I looked on Pro Football reference for RBs who:

- were underwhelming in the first 4 years of their career (under 500 yards)
- after that suddenly had a 1000 yard season.

That's setting the bar fairly low, but I wanted to have some results I could look at. If I take the period since 2000 (modern era), I find the following names:

Player                        From    To       Tm            1000+ year     
Reuben Droughns    2001    2003    DET/DEN   2005    1601
- Barely topped 100 yards in his first three seasons, then exploded in 2004/2005 after Clinton Portis was shipped to Washington, and had 1400 and 1600 yards seasons.


Ladell Betts              2002    2005    WAS           2006    1599
- 4 seasons of 400 yards, and then 1599 the year after (here is is again) Clinton Portis got injured. After that, had one season of 509 and then it was back to the barely nothings.


Justin Fargas           2003    2005    OAK            2007    1197
- 3 seasons of nothing, then 750 yards behind Lamont Jordan, and then had a 1200 and a 900 season - and then again faded.


That's the most convincing examples I could find. So yes, sometimes nobodies go from turdness to relative greatness. It's not common, but it has happened.

 

Wow good finds man. Ladell Betts is a great example of this situation 

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Just now, Stonej14 said:

Yea but Thomas Jones was a 1st round draft pick from Virginia wasnt he? 

Yeah, didn’t know that was part of the debate.

 

End or the day, Williams plays for a top 3 offense, a Head Coach that’s famous for being a 1 back guy & he looked phenomenal on tape and statistically with the Chiefs last year.

I’d much rather have him than someone like Fournette or Mack.

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12 minutes ago, Folarin said:

Yeah, didn’t know that was part of the debate.

 

End or the day, Williams plays for a top 3 offense, a Head Coach that’s famous for being a 1 back guy & he looked phenomenal on tape and statistically with the Chiefs last year.

I’d much rather have him than someone like Fournette or Mack.

Mack?  Dude might be a rb1 this year.  Why the hate?  Colts might be no 1 offense in the nfl...they have a better qb than mahomes...luck.  Yes, Luck might be the best QB in the nfl right now.  Yes mahomes can be argued as the no 1, but dude played one season.  I need two at the minimum before I even consider calling him the greatest QB in the nfl.   

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3 minutes ago, Mkrak23 said:

Mack?  Dude might be a rb1 this year.  Why the hate?  Colts might be no 1 offense in the nfl...they have a better qb than mahomes...luck.  Yes, Luck might be the best QB in the nfl right now.  Yes mahomes can be argued as the no 1, but dude played one season.  I need two at the minimum before I even consider calling him the greatest QB in the nfl.   

 

I dont think it was so much hate on mack as much as it was love for Williams. Fournette could be an rb1 as well if it all plays out right. 

NFL is coming out with 2019s top 100 they'll let us know beyond the shadow of a doubt who is the best qb is dont worry. Personally I still pick Rodgers. 

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What a lot of people miss with mahomes...he had a lot of fortunate passes go his way.  They could have easily been intercepted.  What happens when he has a game with multiple interceptions (he did it regularly in college)?  What impact will this have on a runner like Williams with a qb losing his confidence, and everything going wrong for him as opposed to last year where everything went right?   We will find out, but it’s a lot to expect kc to repeat as best offense in nfl...

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11 minutes ago, Mkrak23 said:

What a lot of people miss with mahomes...he had a lot of fortunate passes go his way.  They could have easily been intercepted.  What happens when he has a game with multiple interceptions (he did it regularly in college)?  What impact will this have on a runner like Williams with a qb losing his confidence, and everything going wrong for him as opposed to last year where everything went right?   We will find out, but it’s a lot to expect kc to repeat as best offense in nfl...

 

Some argue the other way. Some analysts have said that he actually played it safe on too many throws and left a lot of yards and touchdowns out on the field... but analysts say alot of crazy stuff. He did have several multiple interception games tho. Had one game with 3 ints I believe.

Rodgers was off last year. He was playing a grade 2 MCL sprain with a bunch of rookie wrs. He'll bounce back this year. 

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45 minutes ago, Mkrak23 said:

What a lot of people miss with mahomes...he had a lot of fortunate passes go his way.  They could have easily been intercepted.  What happens when he has a game with multiple interceptions (he did it regularly in college)?  What impact will this have on a runner like Williams with a qb losing his confidence, and everything going wrong for him as opposed to last year where everything went right?   We will find out, but it’s a lot to expect kc to repeat as best offense in nfl...

 

In games where Mahomes threw multiple interceptions last year the team scored 38, 45, 30, 37, and 51 points. That's 40.2 points per game. This KC offense was a top 5 offense with the very restrictive Alex Smith at quarterback. With Mahomes + Hill + Kelce + Reid they are generational.

RBs scored 24 touchdowns rushing and receiving for the Chiefs in the regular season last year. Any feature back of theirs has the opportunity to score 15 touchdowns, even if they concede work to other backs on certain drives and situations along the way. 

Edited by P@ckersFan
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13 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

 

In games where Mahomes threw multiple interceptions last year the team scored 38, 45, 30, 37, and 51 points. That's 40.2 points per game. This KC offense was a top 5 offense with the very restrictive Alex Smith at quarterback. With Mahomes + Hill + Kelce + Reid they are generational.

RBs scored 24 touchdowns rushing and receiving for the Chiefs in the regular season last year. Any feature back of theirs has the opportunity to score 15 touchdowns, even if they concede work to other backs on certain drives and situations along the way. 

 

I do have to correct something important here. Only 3 multi-int games last year. In those games they scored 30, 40, 51 points (40.33 ppg average). The rest of the post still applies. 

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14 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

 

In games where Mahomes threw multiple interceptions last year the team scored 38, 45, 30, 37, and 51 points. That's 40.2 points per game. This KC offense was a top 5 offense with the very restrictive Alex Smith at quarterback. With Mahomes + Hill + Kelce + Reid they are generational.

RBs scored 24 touchdowns rushing and receiving for the Chiefs in the regular season last year. Any feature back of theirs has the opportunity to score 15 touchdowns, even if they concede work to other backs on certain drives and situations along the way. 

This is true and actually conservative. 15 TDs for the starter? Last year Hunt had 14 TDs in 11 games started and Williams had 20 TDs in 5 games started(one only played a half) and 1 not started.

 

That is season long rate for Hunt of 20.3 TDs over 16 games, and for Williams it is 26.6+ TDs for Williams.

 

18-20 is a good mid range of projections, with 15 being around the floor for the full time starter and 25 being near the ceiling. 

 

Yeah. Seems crazy but it isnt

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1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

This is true and actually conservative. 15 TDs for the starter? Last year Hunt had 14 TDs in 11 games started and Williams had 20 TDs in 5 games started(one only played a half) and 1 not started.

 

That is season long rate for Hunt of 20.3 TDs over 16 games, and for Williams it is 26.6+ TDs for Williams.

 

18-20 is a good mid range of projections, with 15 being around the floor for the full time starter and 25 being near the ceiling. 

 

Yeah. Seems crazy but it isnt

So his ceiling is historic LT/Shaun Alexander level good?? His floor is 15 TDs?? Are you gonna take this guy #1 overall?

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3 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

So his ceiling is historic LT/Shaun Alexander level good?? His floor is 15 TDs?? Are you gonna take this guy #1 overall?

It doesn’t matter what other players have done. This situation is LIGHTYEARS better. 

 

Kareem Hunt LITERALLY scored 14 TDs in 11 games and D Williams 10 TDs in less than 6 games.

 

How can you argue with this reality???

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12 minutes ago, Olliemets said:

So his ceiling is historic LT/Shaun Alexander level good?? His floor is 15 TDs?? Are you gonna take this guy #1 overall?

 

I have him loosely ranked as the No 5 RB in fantasy behind Barkley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara. He's not firmly entrenched at 5, but I have him on the same level as DJ and Bell right now. 

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Answer the man, are you going to take him no1?  You are talking some crazy ish that demands you take him no1.  

 

Fyi, if you think kc is going to be that good offensively again, I have bridge to nowhere for sale? Interested?  Any given Sunday.  The league adjust quick.  Trust me, they are all focused on how to stop this offense.  It will be figured out this season.  They will still be good, but not anywhere close to the points scored last year.  Those stats don’t carry over, it’s a new season.  People that understand this do well in fantasy.  People that fall in love with last year’s stats...not so much.  

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3 minutes ago, P@ckersFan said:

 

I have him loosely ranked as the No 5 RB in fantasy behind Barkley, CMC, Zeke, Kamara. He's not firmly entrenched at 5, but I have him on the same level as DJ and Bell right now. 

Based on the stats you are projecting for Williams, he isn’t even your no 1 rb? You mean there are going to be 5 rbs breaking records this year?  And Williams isn’t even the best of them?  Getting drunk off your kool aid...

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2 minutes ago, Mkrak23 said:

Answer the man, are you going to take him no1?  You are talking some crazy ish that demands you take him no1.  

 

Fyi, if you think kc is going to be that good offensively again, I have bridge to nowhere for sale? Interested?  Any given Sunday.  The league adjust quick.  Trust me, they are all focused on how to stop this offense.  It will be figured out this season.  They will still be good, but not anywhere close to the points scored last year.  Those stats don’t carry over, it’s a new season.  People that understand this do well in fantasy.  People that fall in love with last year’s stats...not so much.  

And the good teams adapt and evolve on offense. Reid has been at this for decades. It isn't much of a concern.

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