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Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


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It's ironic that after months of discussing, debating McCoy, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, and Thompson that the most valuable Chiefs RB turned out to be Hyde.

If McCoy comes to chiefs and pushes Williams out, I am not drafting next year until about 20 minutes before the season begins 

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7 hours ago, Mkrak23 said:

Ahh, so the offense is guaranteed now to score over 20 rushing tds?  Sure...

 

All I said was that any KC feature back has the chance to score 15 total TDs. Anything else is your imagination.

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2 hours ago, P@ckersFan said:

 

All I said was that any KC feature back has the chance to score 15 total TDs. Anything else is your imagination.

Ahh,  you have seen the light.  Kc offense isn’t guaranteed anything and quite frankly historical odds are totally against them of repeating that season. 

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8 hours ago, Mkrak23 said:

Ahh,  you have seen the light.  Kc offense isn’t guaranteed anything and quite frankly historical odds are totally against them of repeating that season. 

So instead of 5000 yards and 50 tds, you’re telling me he may only throw for 4200 and 40 tds? You’re right, I don’t want any part of that offense...

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I was pretty high on Williams for PPR leagues when I thought that Tyreek Hill would be suspended but since he won't be suspended at all and with the threat of Carlos Hyde, I'm very hesitant to draft him or at least spend a high pick on him.  He has been going in the 3rd round and sometimes even the late 2nd in the mock drafts that I've been doing and I would rather have more of a sure thing like Derrick Henry or Marlon Mack as my rb2 in that area.

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43 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I was pretty high on Williams for PPR leagues when I thought that Tyreek Hill would be suspended but since he won't be suspended at all and with the threat of Carlos Hyde, I'm very hesitant to draft him or at least spend a high pick on him.  He has been going in the 3rd round and sometimes even the late 2nd in the mock drafts that I've been doing and I would rather have more of a sure thing like Derrick Henry or Marlon Mack as my rb2 in that area.

How are Henry and Mack more of a sure thing?

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3 minutes ago, devaster said:

How are Henry and Mack more of a sure thing?

Maybe not Henry as I just read that the left tackle Lewan is suspended for the first 4 games but Marlon Mack is more of a sure thing because he doesn't have another rb to steal 1st and 2nd down carries like Williams does.  And you know that Mack will be in there for the Colts in the red zone.  I will be watching KC's first team offense in the preseason and if I see Williams used in the red zone without Hyde mixed in then I would take him.  But otherwise, he is being drafted too high in my opinion.

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9 hours ago, Mkrak23 said:

Ahh,  you have seen the light.  Kc offense isn’t guaranteed anything and quite frankly historical odds are totally against them of repeating that season. 

 

I've been saying the same thing all along with regards to Williams and the KC offense. 

The KC offense is generational and without injuries will have another monster season. 

The KC feature back will have a chance to score 15 total TDs. 

Edited by P@ckersFan
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16 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Maybe not Henry as I just read that the left tackle Lewan is suspended for the first 4 games but Marlon Mack is more of a sure thing because he doesn't have another rb to steal 1st and 2nd down carries like Williams does.  And you know that Mack will be in there for the Colts in the red zone.  I will be watching KC's first team offense in the preseason and if I see Williams used in the red zone without Hyde mixed in then I would take him.  But otherwise, he is being drafted too high in my opinion.

But...Hyde is a pretty terrible RB.

https://mobile.twitter.com/sharpfootball/status/1153658522652966912

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I think that Williams' critics agree that he hasn't been the main rb for a full season and was previously viewed as strictly a 3rd down back prior to last season for a reason.  He is the definition of a high risk/high reward pick.  The biggest question is:  "Can he be the main guy or even a three down back?"  He only had 2 games with over 100 yards rushing, both at the end of the season and only 1 where he had over 15 carries, so he hasn't even done it for half a season.  Heck, he hasn't even done it for a quarter of a season (4 games).  He has the size at 5'11" 224 lbs to be a bellcow and he looked explosive with a lot of the carries that he had, but again he has a very small sample size.  For me, he is just too much of a gamble in the 3rd round especially if I paid $100 or more to enter a league.

KC will likely give him a chance to establish himself as the clear cut main guy early in the season but if he doesn't show well, it will likely turn into a committee with Hyde and Hyde could even take the job outright relegating Williams back to 3rd down back status.  A good comp for Williams to me is Kenyan Drake.

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

But...Hyde is a pretty terrible RB.

Hyde looked good when he was with Cleveland last year early in the season as their main rb and only looked bad after he was traded to Jacksonville mostly because he wasn't used right.

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5 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Hyde looked good when he was with Cleveland last year early in the season as their main rb and only looked bad after he was traded to Jacksonville mostly because he wasn't used right.

Hyde was the least successful rusher (receiving regular carries) on each of his teams over the past two seasons.

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Hyde had 5 td's in his first 4 games last season before the coaching staff decided that they wanted a younger rb in Nick Chubb to take over to go along with their youth movement.  That's why Hyde was traded.  Do I view Hyde as a star?  Definitely not, but he is an above-average NFL rb and he has shown he can do well when given 20+ carries.

Before deciding whether a rb is good or isn't good, I look at how they are used by the coaching staff and whether they are put in positions to succeed or positions to fail.

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16 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Hyde looked good when he was with Cleveland last year early in the season as their main rb and only looked bad after he was traded to Jacksonville mostly because he wasn't used right.

He was pretty bad in Cleveland, too. He was just fine for fantasy because he was scoring tds. 

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1 minute ago, sjm76 said:

Hyde had 5 td's in his first 4 games last season before the coaching staff decided that they wanted a younger rb in Nick Chubb to take over to go along with their youth movement.  That's why Hyde was traded.  Do I view Hyde as a star?  Definitely not, but he is an above-average NFL rb and he has shown he can do well when given 20+ carries.

 

Cmon now. Hyde is well, well below average for a starting RB in the NFL at this point. He is somewhere on the borderline of being a backup or a third string RB in the league.

 

He had an abysmal season in 2017 for the 49ers, relying solely on volume, while putting up poor efficiency compared to UDFA Breida as a rookie, the worst rated pass blocking in the league for an RB, and the worst receiving performance on any meaningful volume for an RB in NFL history.

He was let go at the end of the season to the Browns as Shanahan wanted no partner of Hyde going forward. On the Browns he was devastatingly our performer by Chubb when he was given the chance and but Duke as well, and was traded for pennies after half a season to Jax, where he was also outperformed by Yeldon and Fournette. Throughout 2018 he continued to be one of the worst pass blockers and pass catching RBs in the entire league. 

 

We can go on and on about how scarily bad and inefficient Hyde has been for 2 years now(he still had some good running ability as of 3 years ago)but suffice to say he is a borderline 2nd stringer in this league at this point, and I have ZERO confidence that he could even manage to hold down this backfield on his own and produce even mediocre results if given the chance due to injury - he is just too awful of a pass catcher and blocker to play much in this system.

Word out of KC is that the underwhelming Darrel Williams would actually get the start if Damien got injured because of his more diverse skill set, and Hyde would come in situationally in short yardage and D Thompson would be a scat back.

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8 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Hyde had 5 td's in his first 4 games last season before the coaching staff decided that they wanted a younger rb in Nick Chubb to take over to go along with their youth movement.  That's why Hyde was traded.  Do I view Hyde as a star?  Definitely not, but he is an above-average NFL rb and he has shown he can do well when given 20+ carries.

“Above-average”?  Are we talking about the same player here? The one who hasn’t averaged above 3.9 ypc for the past two years (3.3 last season) while running behind excellent blocking (mostly) who also led the league in 2017 in both QB pressures allowed AND dropped passes?

 

There must be another Carlos Hyde I’m unaware of.

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Well, all I can say is that we'll see how Williams is used when the first team offense is in there in the preseason.  Don't get me wrong, I want to see Williams become a bellcow and if he can he has the potential to put up big stats in that offense but the odds are against him.

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18 minutes ago, JoeJoe88 said:

He was pretty bad in Cleveland, too. He was just fine for fantasy because he was scoring tds. 

 

He was historically bad in Cleveland as well, scoring at a rate of only 0.76 fantasy points per touch(0.5ppr). Basically what that means is that in order to be the RB1 overall, Hyde would need about 500 touches. This has been his MO his entire career.

 

He is like a high volume chucker in basketball. A Melo, but never as talented as Melo was

Edited by elroypedro
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5 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Well, all I can say is that we'll see how Williams is used when the first team offense is in there in the preseason.  Don't get me wrong, I want to see Williams become a bellcow and if he can he has the potential to put up big stats in that offense but the odds are against him.

No need to wait that long.  And the odds are most certainly not “against” him - they’re quite with him:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-can-the-divisive-damien-williams-prove-worth-the-cost/amp/

Note particularly the comparison between Hyde and Williams.

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7 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Well, all I can say is that we'll see how Williams is used when the first team offense is in there in the preseason.  Don't get me wrong, I want to see Williams become a bellcow and if he can he has the potential to put up big stats in that offense but the odds are against him.

 

The odds are actually VERY strongly for him. Not sure the reason you would come here and make that bit up? Care to clear up why you’d do that?

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3 minutes ago, BMcP said:

No need to wait that long.  And the odds are most certainly not “against” him - they’re quite with him:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.cbssports.com/fantasy/football/news/2019-fantasy-football-can-the-divisive-damien-williams-prove-worth-the-cost/amp/

Note particularly the comparison between Hyde and Williams.

 

Lmao BMcP and I are not the same person I swear, we just shopped for brains at the same store I guess

Edited by elroypedro
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10 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

The odds are actually VERY strongly for him. Not sure the reason you would come here and make that bit up? Care to clear up why you’d do that?

In my opinion, the odds shouldn't be so strongly for him because as I mentioned, he only had 2 games last year where he had over 100 yards rushing and more than 14 carries.  That's a very small sample size.  I'm not saying that Williams doesn't have talent because he does as he showed toward the end of last season but there is a reason why he was only previously viewed as a third down back.

Go ahead and draft him in the 3rd round where he's going if you want but I would rather have more of a sure thing rb.  As stated, we'll see what happens and how he is used in the preseason.

Edited by sjm76
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