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Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


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Just now, sjm76 said:

In my opinion, the odds shouldn't be so strongly for him because as I mentioned, he only had 2 games last year where he had over 100 yards rushing and more than 14 carries.  That's a very small sample size.  I'm not saying that Williams doesn't have talent because he does as he showed toward the end of last season but there is a reason why he was only previously viewed as a third down back.

 

He was not only previously viewed as a third down back. That is a straight up lie. He started in JC, he won the starting job at OU, he won the starting job eventually in Miami in 2017 before going to KC in 2018 where he again climbed the depth chart to win the starting job. He is 5’11” 220 and runs a 4.45 40. He is a bellcow size, speed, athleticism. He is an elite pass blocker. He is an elite pass catcher. He is close to elite in elusiveness and yards created. He is average as a pure runner, which is more than good enough given his other skill set.

 

2 games of over 100 yards tells as close to ZERO of the story as possible to the point it is dishonest to even bring up. He averaged 5.1 YPC and did a TON of his work through the air. He had a massive TD rate that just kept increasing even given more volume.

 

So what are these odds against him? He is the clear starter, as publicly strongly backed by the GM, OC, HC. There’s is no threat on the depth chart behind him. Does he have injury risk above other RBs? Even if so, only marginally as most all RBs have that injury risk and miss on average 3-4 games per year. The offense is historic and the TD rate for Hunt last year was 20+ over 16 games, and 26+ for D Williams.

 

So what is making D Williams any more risky than other RBs? I grant it feels right to say that, but every single metric, stat, and circumstance is showing the opposite, that D Williams position as the starter is rock solid and that his potential to perform as a high end RB1 is very high.

 

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It's ironic that after months of discussing, debating McCoy, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, and Thompson that the most valuable Chiefs RB turned out to be Hyde.

If McCoy comes to chiefs and pushes Williams out, I am not drafting next year until about 20 minutes before the season begins 

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Chiefs signed RB Damien Williams, formerly of the Dolphins.

Williams, 26, spent his first four NFL seasons in Miami after going undrafted out of Oklahoma, managing 3.6 career yards per carry but showing passing-down chops with 85 receptions. In Kansas City, Williams figures to battle Charcandrick West for one roster spot behind Kareem Hunt and Spencer Ware.

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Mar 22, 2018, 2:17 PM ET
 
This rotoworld blurb and others before it from 2018 prove that he was previously viewed as strictly a 3rd down/passing down back.  That's proof that I wasn't lying.
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Well you're obviously someone who is a lot higher on Williams than many others are and you're entitled to your opinion but you need a reality check.  If the Chiefs were 100% as confident in Williams as you seem to be, they wouldn't have signed Hyde.  Being a starter in college is one thing but being a starter in the NFL is another.  A ton of rb's who were even 4 year starters in college don't end up being more than 3rd down/situational backs in the NFL.

Also, Williams was an undrafted free agent so that should also be taken into consideration.  If he was so good and was viewed as highly as you seem to view him then why wasn't he drafted?

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1 minute ago, sjm76 said:

Well you're obviously someone who is a lot higher on Williams than many others are and you're entitled to your opinion but you need a reality check.  If the Chiefs were 100% as confident in Williams as you seem to be, they wouldn't have signed Hyde.  Being a starter in college is one thing but being a starter in the NFL is another.  A ton of rb's who were even 4 year starters in college don't end up being more than 3rd down/situational backs in the NFL.

Also, Williams was an undrafted free agent so that should also be taken into consideration.  If he was so good and was viewed as highly as you seem to view him then why wasn't he drafted?

 

You just double down on your ignorance and negative amount of knowledge. Damien Williams got kicked off the team at OU his senior year and instead of being a day 2(likely round 2 at the time) draft pick he fell to become a UDFA. His climb back to become a starter in Miami putting up elite efficiency numbers there was a solid accomplishment because of that, and his climb to becoming the KC starter and putting ALL TIME historical elite efficiency and production numbers to close the year is almost unprecedented as an accomplishment for any RB in his situation. 

 

And you think signing Hyde was a bad thing for Williams? Are you insane? It was the best possible outcome for this off season. The Chiefs signed Williams as their 100% starter, signed a low level backup veteran, and drafted a sixth round actual 3rd down back. This is all FANTASTIC for D Williams. Nobody could have imagined a better scenario for him depth chart wise a few months ago.

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4 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

You just double down on your ignorance and negative amount of knowledge. Damien Williams got kicked off the team at OU his senior year and instead of being a day 2(likely round 2 at the time) draft pick he fell to become a UDFA. His climb back to become a starter in Miami putting up elite efficiency numbers there was a solid accomplishment because of that, and his climb to becoming the KC starter and putting ALL TIME historical elite efficiency and production numbers to close the year is almost unprecedented as an accomplishment for any RB in his situation. 

 

And you think signing Hyde was a bad thing for Williams? Are you insane? It was the best possible outcome for this off season. The Chiefs signed Williams as their 100% starter, signed a low level backup veteran, and drafted a sixth round actual 3rd down back. This is all FANTASTIC for D Williams. Nobody could have imagined a better scenario for him depth chart wise a few months ago.

I looked at Williams' stats from 2017 when he was a starter for Miami before getting injured and they were hardly "elite."  Come on, now.  As stated, I want to see Williams succeed, too, but you make him out to be the second coming of Jim Brown.

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1 minute ago, sjm76 said:

I looked at Williams' stats from 2017 when he was a starter for Miami before getting injured and they were hardly "elite."  Come on, now.  As stated, I want to see Williams succeed, too, but you make him out to be the second coming of Jim Brown.

His stats are unquestionably elite when analyzed correctly. You seem like a box score watcher, citing 100 yard games and other no sense. Even throughout his time in Miami, D Williams had ELITE production per touch efficiency. It has only gone up on higher volume. That shows he is the real deal without question, and not a gimmick player or scat back.

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2 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

His stats are unquestionably elite when analyzed correctly. You seem like a box score watcher, citing 100 yard games and other no sense. Even throughout his time in Miami, D Williams had ELITE production per touch efficiency. It has only gone up on higher volume. That shows he is the real deal without question, and not a gimmick player or scat back.

That's not true.  I analyze other factors and not just stats.  All I can say is: we'll see.  There have been other rb's who also had an elite yards per carry average etc per touch on limited touches but they flopped when teams attempted to make them into full-time starters. 

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9 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

I looked at Williams' stats from 2017 when he was a starter for Miami before getting injured and they were hardly "elite."  Come on, now.  As stated, I want to see Williams succeed, too, but you make him out to be the second coming of Jim Brown.

B-b-but his points per touch on hardly any touches in Miami was amazing

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Just now, sjm76 said:

That's not true.  I analyze other factors and not just stats.  All I can say is: we'll see.  There have been other rb's who also had an elite yards per carry average etc per touch on limited touches but they flopped when teams attempted to make them into full-time starters. 

Damien williams did not however. He not only put up insanely better numbers(some of the best in NFL history) right out of the gate when given the starting job and increased volume in KC, but he got better and better over weeks and into the playoffs.

 

So how does is your above post relevant at all?

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Just now, bhawks489 said:

B-b-but his points per touch on hardly any touches in Miami was amazing

It was. And on even more in KC it was even better, to the point of being all time elite IN NFL HISTORY.

 

And guess what situation he is in now to start this season? The high volume starter in Kc

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1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

Damien williams did not however. He not only put up insanely better numbers(some of the best in NFL history) right out of the gate when given the starting job and increased volume in KC, but he got better and better over weeks and into the playoffs.

 

So how does is your above post relevant at all?

 All I can say is that we'll see who is right and who is wrong about Williams but you'd better believe that if/when you're wrong, I'll be back here to say "I told you so."

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2 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

 All I can say is that we'll see who is right and who is wrong about Williams but you'd better believe that if/when you're wrong, I'll be back here to say "I told you so."

Can we count on you for the same?

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I don't feel like getting all worked up about fantasy football a month before the season has even started but a good example of a rb with a smaller sample size similar to what Williams had last year is Corey Grant who just signed with the Packers today and used to be with the Jaguars.  Like Williams, he was highly efficient in 2016-17 averaging 6.6 ypc with limited touches and he also looked good as a receiver but he ended up flaming out last year before suffering a Lisfranc injury which ended his season.  Will Williams end up being similar to Marshall Faulk or Le'Veon Bell or will he be another Corey Grant?  We'll find out.

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Buying this guy in the early 2nd.  He is highly capable - we know that.  More to the point, I want the RB1 for an Andy Reid / Patrick Mahomes led offense.  I want it badly but I will not overpay.  Depending on injuries and how this Melvin Gordon situation plays out - I am going with Williams in the late 1st or early 2nd.  No doubt about it. 

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1 hour ago, devaster said:

Can we count on you for the same?

Of course not. All the idiots saying D Williams wouldn’t last through Free agency or the Draft have scattered back to their rat holes. I literally had them PMing me calling me names and trolling incessantly here and then BAM, nothing when they are proven wrong.

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Honestly it’s just D Williams believers winning over and over and over again the last 6 months and then the goalposts shifting and then d Williams believers winning more and the goalposts shifting more. 

 

We are at the point where outside of a top 3 overall RB season for D Williams is a win for his haters. Cmon now

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30 minutes ago, dudewithabadcat said:

Buying this guy in the early 2nd.  He is highly capable - we know that.  More to the point, I want the RB1 for an Andy Reid / Patrick Mahomes led offense.  I want it badly but I will not overpay.  Depending on injuries and how this Melvin Gordon situation plays out - I am going with Williams in the late 1st or early 2nd.  No doubt about it. 

You say that you want the RB1 in the Chiefs offense badly and I don't blame you, but drafting Williams in the late 1st or early 2nd sounds like overpaying to me unless the Chiefs show that they'll use him in the red zone in the upcoming preseason games.  Will you still draft Williams that high if they use Carlos Hyde in the red zone in the preseason?  

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7 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Honestly it’s just D Williams believers winning over and over and over again the last 6 months and then the goalposts shifting and then d Williams believers winning more and the goalposts shifting more. 

 

We are at the point where outside of a top 3 overall RB season for D Williams is a win for his haters. Cmon now

Let me be clear, I don't "hate" Williams as hate is a very strong word.  I'm just not nearly as high on him as other people because I've seen several other rb's who have posted similar numbers with a small sample size end up being busts for one reason or another after they become the main guy for a full season.

Williams could end up being another league winner, Priest Holmes-type but he could also end up being another Corey Grant.

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2 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Let me be clear, I don't "hate" Williams as hate is a very strong word.  I'm just not nearly as high on him as other people because I've seen several other rb's who have posted similar numbers with a small sample size end up being busts for one reason or another after they become the main guy.

What about Michael Turner from the Chargers? The NFL will always have more stories of failures than successes because that is the nature of the league, but there are plenty of successful stories as well.

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2 minutes ago, devaster said:

What about Michael Turner from the Chargers? The NFL will always have more stories of failures than successes because that is the nature of the league, but there are plenty of successful stories as well.

Yes, Turner is an example of a success story after he joined the Falcons but as you stated, there are many more examples of failures.

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1 hour ago, sjm76 said:

I don't feel like getting all worked up about fantasy football a month before the season has even started but a good example of a rb with a smaller sample size similar to what Williams had last year is Corey Grant who just signed with the Packers today and used to be with the Jaguars.  Like Williams, he was highly efficient in 2016-17 averaging 6.6 ypc with limited touches and he also looked good as a receiver but he ended up flaming out last year before suffering a Lisfranc injury which ended his season.  Will Williams end up being similar to Marshall Faulk or Le'Veon Bell or will he be another Corey Grant?  We'll find out.

 

Corey Grant 2017:

0 starts

31 carries, 250 yards, 2 TDs

6 receptions, 100 yards, 0 TDs

(minus one broken play of a 56 yard run, his stats look REALLY BAD, 30/194/1, 6/100/0)

 

D Williams 2018:

5 starts

85 carries, 415 yards, 6 TDs

33 receptions, 251 yards, 4 TDs

 

 

Just stop

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13 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

Let me be clear, I don't "hate" Williams as hate is a very strong word.  I'm just not nearly as high on him as other people because I've seen several other rb's who have posted similar numbers with a small sample size end up being busts for one reason or another after they become the main guy for a full season.

Williams could end up being another league winner, Priest Holmes-type but he could also end up being another Corey Grant.

I don’t understand why you keep referencing Grant.  He just isn’t an example of someone who busted after becoming “the main guy for a full season.”

EDIT: @elroypedro - are you my brother from another mother?!

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