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Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


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1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

 

Corey Grant 2017:

0 starts

31 carries, 250 yards, 2 TDs

6 receptions, 100 yards, 0 TDs

(minus one broken play of a 56 yard run, his stats look REALLY BAD, 30/194/1, 6/100/0)

 

D Williams 2018:

5 starts

85 carries, 415 yards, 6 TDs

33 receptions, 251 yards, 4 TDs

 

 

Just stop

In all but his one game with 25 carries and 129 yards, Williams' stats were inflated by some big runs as well.  What's your point?  Just wait until after the third preseason game for the Chiefs and then we'll revisit this thread.

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It's ironic that after months of discussing, debating McCoy, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, and Thompson that the most valuable Chiefs RB turned out to be Hyde.

If McCoy comes to chiefs and pushes Williams out, I am not drafting next year until about 20 minutes before the season begins 

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6 minutes ago, BMcP said:

I don’t understand why you keep referencing Grant.  He just isn’t an example of someone who busted after becoming “the main guy for a full season.”

EDIT: @elroypedro - are you my brother from another mother?!

Haha yeah. I think we’re just using the most basic common sense to come to similar conclusions.

 

For example, Damien Scored 50% more TDs in the AFC championship game alone than Grant did in 2017, or in any season in his 4 year career. Damien scored 150% more TDs in a 6 game span last year than Grant has scored in his entire career combined.

 

Why we are even talking about him is a stupid joke that isn’t even funny

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4 hours ago, sjm76 said:

I was pretty high on Williams for PPR leagues when I thought that Tyreek Hill would be suspended but since he won't be suspended at all and with the threat of Carlos Hyde, I'm very hesitant to draft him or at least spend a high pick on him.  He has been going in the 3rd round and sometimes even the late 2nd in the mock drafts that I've been doing and I would rather have more of a sure thing like Derrick Henry or Marlon Mack as my rb2 in that area.

 

Dang, I love Derrick Henry, obviously. Even I would draft Williams before Henry in any money leagues.

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2 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

In all but his one game with 25 carries and 129 yards, Williams' stats were inflated by some big runs as well.  What's your point?  Just wait until after the third preseason game for the Chiefs and then we'll revisit this thread.

 

YOU. ARE. A. LIAR.

 

D Williams longest run last year was 25 yards. 

 

Seriously, can mods ban this guy for consistently lying over and over and over here???

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1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

 

YOU. ARE. A. LIAR.

 

D Williams longest run last year was 25 yards. 

 

Seriously, can mods ban this guy for consistently lying over and over and over here???

Yeah, you go on thinking that Williams is the next Jim Brown.  LOL.

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the only thing that matters is what Reid thinks of Williams and Reid is a pretty loyal guy.  Williams doesn't have to be "all world"  he just has to be good enough to be worth a round 2 price tag.  Williams role is the text book definition of what people want as a starting RB.  good offense, bell cow role, track record, patient coach

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36 minutes ago, sjm76 said:

You say that you want the RB1 in the Chiefs offense badly and I don't blame you, but drafting Williams in the late 1st or early 2nd sounds like overpaying to me unless the Chiefs show that they'll use him in the red zone in the upcoming preseason games.  Will you still draft Williams that high if they use Carlos Hyde in the red zone in the preseason?  

 

Jah.  Don't care one single bit.   

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16 minutes ago, owenmills said:

I can tell he's either someone in this thread's keeper or relative

People can disagree, there's nothing wrong with that.  Other than him calling me a liar which doesn't bother me especially since I know that I'm not, there hasn't been any name-calling.  I try to not get too worked up about anything fantasy football-related anymore.

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9 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

I'm curious to know what @elroypedrothinks William's stats will be.

We know your belief on the 1.24 fantasy points per touch and that you believe he will get 300 to 320 touches in the season. Well what will his end of year stats be that make him a top 3 back?

Year end is hard because guys miss games. But if he plays 16, he’ll average over 20 points (0.5ppr) per game and be over 320 fantasy points on the season. This is overwhelmingly likely. 

 

I would say he has just a small but not insignificantly greater chance of injury or replacement than the other top 4 RBs, who are the other guys in the overwhelmingly likely 20+ ppg tier. Which is why I would take him as RB#5.

 

Only way to be lower on him is to think he will be injured or replaced, period. And nobody can make a good argument that that is likely at all. At best for the argument against him he is as injury prone as any other RB and has a marginally greater chance to be replaced, although it would almost have to be by trade at this point as Hyde, Darrel Williams, and D Thompson are no realistic threat to replace him.

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Just now, Stonej14 said:

 

He was just being facetious dude, relax.

He has lied over and over and over and over again in this thread alone. That is not being facetious, it is fabricating stats and putting words in others mouths.l to try to manipulate anyone simple enough to think he is just being facetious 

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3 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Year end is hard because guys miss games. But if he plays 16, he’ll average over 20 points (0.5ppr) per game and be over 320 fantasy points on the season. This is overwhelmingly likely. 

 

I would say he has just a small but not insignificantly greater chance of injury or replacement than the other top 4 RBs, who are the other guys in the overwhelmingly likely 20+ ppg tier. Which is why I would take him as RB#5.

 

Only way to be lower on him is to think he will be injured or replaced, period. And nobody can make a good argument that that is likely at all. At best for the argument against him he is as injury prone as any other RB and has a marginally greater chance to be replaced, although it would almost have to be by trade at this point as Hyde, Darrel Williams, and D Thompson are no realistic threat to replace him.

 

Well can you atleast attempt to give me his end of year stats if he plays 16 games. Cuss man I just cant wrap my head around him getting 1.240 FPPT for 300 touches (370 points half ppr) or 1.10 FPPT for 300 touches (330 pts)

I mean that's like leading the league in rushing and all rbs in recieving yard and catches and TDs. 

 

4 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

He has lied over and over and over and over again in this thread alone. That is not being facetious, it is fabricating stats and putting words in others mouths.l to try to manipulate anyone simple enough to think he is just being facetious 

 

I dont think he tried to lie he just probably doesnt know damien William's stats as good as you it coulda been an honest mistake. Just chill this is nothing to get worked up over and start calling ppl names. Now pretty please can you take a stab at damien's end of season stats

 

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4 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Year end is hard because guys miss games. But if he plays 16, he’ll average over 20 points (0.5ppr) per game and be over 320 fantasy points on the season. This is overwhelmingly likely. 

 

I would say he has just a small but not insignificantly greater chance of injury or replacement than the other top 4 RBs, who are the other guys in the overwhelmingly likely 20+ ppg tier. Which is why I would take him as RB#5.

 

Only way to be lower on him is to think he will be injured or replaced, period. And nobody can make a good argument that that is likely at all. At best for the argument against him he is as injury prone as any other RB and has a marginally greater chance to be replaced, although it would almost have to be by trade at this point as Hyde, Darrel Williams, and D Thompson are no realistic threat to replace him.

 

That's craziness, and takes like that will end up ruining peoples Fantasy season if they take the bait.  Zeke basically had like 60 touches less last year alone, than Williams has had in 2 years of college and 5 NFL seasons COMBINED.  To suggest Williams is no more or less capable of handling a full workhorse type of load or getting injured than Elliot is just pure madness.

 

There have been numerous GREAT arguments against the idea that Williams will be a bellcow and last a full season.  I'd also argue they are backed by more evidence than the take above.

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14 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

That's craziness, and takes like that will end up ruining peoples Fantasy season if they take the bait.  Zeke basically had like 60 touches less last year alone, than Williams has had in 2 years of college and 5 NFL seasons COMBINED.  To suggest Williams is no more or less capable of handling a full workhorse type of load or getting injured than Elliot is just pure madness.

 

There have been numerous GREAT arguments against the idea that Williams will be a bellcow and last a full season.  I'd also argue they are backed by more evidence than the take above.

 

No, you are just making that up. It is in your head. It isn’t reality.

 

How did he handle 6 games of full starter workload including the divisional playoffs and afc championship game, almost singlehandedly dragging the struggling KC offense to the SB against NE?

 

Answer: he got an A+, handled it with all-time greatness. 

 

 

 

THERE IS ZERO CHANCE that D Williams has any significantly higher chance of injury than the average top RB. Yes, some are extremely durable like Zeke and CMC, and some are injury prone or just haven’t produced in years like Cook, Fournette, Bell, DJ. But D Williams has no higher chance of injury than any normal bellcow RB. 

 

Starting RBs miss 3-4 games on average per year. There is no reason to project more than that for D Williams. And even if not hurt, a player like Zeke is a mess off the field and has only played 15, 10, 15 games in his three years. 13.3 games per year. That is roughly in line with expectations for D Williams(and most other RBs) games played this year.

 

He may, and this is arguable because there isn’t even close to a competent replacement near his level on the roster, he may be slightly more replaceable than most bellcows. Even if that is so, it is a marginal difference at worst. 

 

Really what we are looking at is that he isn’t replaceable or more injury prone at any significant level compared to other RBs. And if he plays a fair projection PPG is definitely top 3-4 RBs in the game. 

 

The excuses for him not being a top 5 drafted RB are wearing very, VERY thin

 

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23 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Well can you atleast attempt to give me his end of year stats if he plays 16 games. Cuss man I just cant wrap my head around him getting 1.240 FPPT for 300 touches (370 points half ppr) or 1.10 FPPT for 300 touches (330 pts)

I mean that's like leading the league in rushing and all rbs in recieving yard and catches and TDs. 

 

 

I dont think he tried to lie he just probably doesnt know damien William's stats as good as you it coulda been an honest mistake. Just chill this is nothing to get worked up over and start calling ppl names. Now pretty please can you take a stab at damien's end of season stats

 

 

I already did. If he plays 16 his floor is in the 300-320 range, ceiling up at 400+-. 

 

Most RBs don’t however, so by ppg 20-24 is most likely. Making him RB 1-5. 

 

Last year PPg(0.5ppr);

Gurley 24.3

Barkley 21.3

Kamara 20.9

CMC 20.9

Gordon 20.9

Hunt 19.7

Conner 19.4

Zeke 19.4

Mixon 15.9

White 14.6

Mack 14.1

DJ 13.9

Lindsay 13.7

Carson 13.7

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

No, you are just making that up. It is in your head. It isn’t reality.

 

How did he handle 6 games of full starter workload including the divisional playoffs and afc championship game, almost singlehandedly dragging the struggling KC offense to the SB against NE?

 

Answer: he got an A+, handled it with all-time greatness. 

 

 

 

THERE IS ZERO CHANCE that D Williams has any significantly higher chance of injury than the average top RB. Yes, some are extremely durable like Zeke and CMC, and some are injury prone or just haven’t produced in years like Cook, Fournette, Bell, DJ. But D Williams has no higher chance of injury than any normal bellcow RB. 

 

Starting RBs miss 3-4 games on average per year. There is no reason to project more than that for D Williams. And even if not hurt, a player like Zeke is a mess off the field and has only played 15, 10, 15 games in his three years. 13.3 games per year. That is roughly in line with expectations for D Williams(and most other RBs) games played this year.

 

He may, and this is arguable because there isn’t even close to a competent replacement near his level on the roster, he may be slightly more replaceable than most bellcows. Even if that is so, it is a marginal difference at worst. 

 

Really what we are looking at is that he isn’t replaceable or more injury prone at any significant level compared to other RBs. And if he plays a fair projection PPG is definitely top 3-4 RBs in the game. 

 

The excuses for him not being a top 5 drafted RB are wearing very, VERY thin

 

 

Give me a single similar profiled player example in NFL History to support what you are projecting Damien Williams to do this year.  There is none.  Which means risk is extremely high with him.  You are projecting something that has never happened before (unless proven otherwise) in the History of the NFL to justify your ADP.  That is not good business.

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Remember, he averaged over 22 ppg in 6 games last year, where he only started 5 of them and only played the first half in another.

 

This could be a low end estimate, although I am more comfortable staying conservative on his projection in the 20-24 ppg area.

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Williams has the prototypical size/build of a three-down back and no concerning injury history.  Where are these great arguments that he’s likely to get hurt coming from?  What are they?  Like, does he have some sort of undisclosed injury at the moment?

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2 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Give me a single similar profiled player example in NFL History to support what you are projecting Damien Williams to do this year.  There is none.  Which means risk is extremely high with him.  You are projecting something that has never happened before (unless proven otherwise) in the History of the NFL to justify your ADP.  That is not good business.

Why don’t you come up with a reason other than some poor useless narrative you are making up to be low on Damien? All metrics, stats, anything objective and measurable back my point of view. All you can come up with now are weak stories to tell yourself. 

 

And heres the kicker: every weak made up narrative against Damien this year and off season has been proven wrong along the way, and the goalposts have shifted. 

 

I guarantee once he balls out this while year there will be trolls slithering in here saying: “well, there is no evidence he can do it for 2 years. We’ve never seen this before from a breakout RB his age.”

 

It gets old, it is stupid, and counterproductive here to do this over and over and over and over and over and over and over with each new s---y anti-Williams argument. 

 

 

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5 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Williams has the prototypical size/build of a three-down back and no concerning injury history.  Where are these great arguments that he’s likely to get hurt coming from?  What are they?  Like, does he have some sort of undisclosed injury at the moment?

We’ve nailed the haters and trolls to the cross at this point. All they have left are drive by narrative argument s that don’t hold any water and morph and shift by the day. 

 

Did he produce when given the chance? Did he get replaced in FA? Did he get replaced in the draft? Did he get the starter nod? Etc etc this will never end with these guys. Some of them even come in here and just start straight up lying about easy stats to look up and then jump straight back to their bad narrative arguments when they get called out. 

 

“Just being facetious man!” F off

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