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Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


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20 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

I already did. If he plays 16 his floor is in the 300-320 range, ceiling up at 400+-. 

 

Most RBs don’t however, so by ppg 20-24 is most likely. Making him RB 1-5. 

 

Last year PPg(0.5ppr);

Gurley 24.3

Barkley 21.3

Kamara 20.9

CMC 20.9

Gordon 20.9

Hunt 19.7

Conner 19.4

Zeke 19.4

Mixon 15.9

White 14.6

Mack 14.1

DJ 13.9

Lindsay 13.7

Carson 13.7

 

 

 

 

Yea I get that your giving me his points per game. I'm asking for some football stats. I feel like that would help me visualize this better if he gets his 20-24 ppg and plays 16 games this year how man rushing yards will he end with. How many receptions and recieving yards. Tds. Those kinda stats. 

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It's ironic that after months of discussing, debating McCoy, Dam. Williams, Dar. Williams, and Thompson that the most valuable Chiefs RB turned out to be Hyde.

If McCoy comes to chiefs and pushes Williams out, I am not drafting next year until about 20 minutes before the season begins 

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10 minutes ago, BMcP said:

Williams has the prototypical size/build of a three-down back and no concerning injury history.  Where are these great arguments that he’s likely to get hurt coming from?  What are they?  Like, does he have some sort of undisclosed injury at the moment?

 

Then why has he not been used that way in 7 YEARS????

 

My entire argument is not only based on the very slim chance he gets 300 touches, its also based on that I think he is a complete JAG.  But, if you truly don't understand that you are more susceptible to injury with a higher workload than you've had in all 5 of your NFL seasons COMBINED, I don't know what else to say to you.  

It's like predicting Usain Bolt to come in top 5 in the Boston Marathon, after never having run a marathon.

It's like predicting 200 innings, 20 wins, and 300 strikeouts for Aroldis Chapman the first year he were moved into the rotation after never throwing more than 70 innings.

 

These may not be great analogies, but I'm trying to speak some type of language that sinks in.  If Williams does what you all project, it will be the first time in NFL history that I'm aware of.  He wasn't a 5 star high school recruit and been in a coma the last 7 years, he's been a JAG the entire decade, save a month when the Chiefs depth chart was ravaged.

 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Yea I get that your giving me his points per game. I'm asking for some football stats. I feel like that would help me visualize this better if he gets his 20-24 ppg and plays 16 games this year how man rushing yards will he end with. How many receptions and recieving yards. Tds. Those kinda stats. 

Well it doesn’t really matter for fantasy, but extrapolated from 6 to 16 games, you would have roughly:

 

220 carries, 1100 yards, 16 TDs

85 receptions, 670 yards, 10.6 TDs

=

Something like 370 points 0.5ppr.

 

Some of these are low and some high, but a safe, conservative projection next year for him would be:

 

220 for 1000 and 10

70 for 800 and 8

=

323 points 0.5 ppr.

 

Things would have to change significantly at this point in KC or with injury for him to not hit at or near these numbers, and then he has historic upside from there.

 

One thing to remember is he was remarkably consistent in scoring last year.

in 4 games fully started, 1 game started playing just the 1st half, and 1 game took over the backfield part way through(that is in 4 full games and 2 partial ones, he had the following TD totals:

3

2

2

1

1

1

 

 

And here is the kicker. If you draft him as the RB5(remember, that is where I have him, and is WELL above where most of you do and where you’ll need to buy him), and he only puts out the following numbers, you’d still be a big winner, with him scoring almost 80  points and almost 300 more points than two top 5 picks last year, DJ and Bell respectively, AND more points than Zeke scores in total last year:

 

200 for 1000 and 9

60 for 600 and 7

= 296 points.

 

2018 Bell = 0

2018 DJ = 221

2018 Zeke = 290

 

Thats all it would take to be light years ahead of Bell last year(obvious and cheap point, I know), waaaaay ahead of DJ last year, and even ahead of Zeke last year.

 

Honestly, if healthy(like DJ and Zeke last year) I think that the above 296 stats are at or near Williams’ floor.

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11 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Then why has he not been used that way in 7 YEARS????

 

My entire argument is not only based on the very slim chance he gets 300 touches, its also based on that I think he is a complete JAG.  But, if you truly don't understand that you are more susceptible to injury with a higher workload than you've had in all 5 of your NFL seasons COMBINED, I don't know what else to say to you.  

It's like predicting Usain Bolt to come in top 5 in the Boston Marathon, after never having run a marathon.

It's like predicting 200 innings, 20 wins, and 300 strikeouts for Aroldis Chapman the first year he were moved into the rotation after never throwing more than 70 innings.

 

These may not be great analogies, but I'm trying to speak some type of language that sinks in.  If Williams does what you all project, it will be the first time in NFL history that I'm aware of.  He wasn't a 5 star high school recruit and been in a coma the last 7 years, he's been a JAG the entire decade, save a month when the Chiefs depth chart was ravaged.

 

 

 

 

 

010916-dolphins-gase005-2.jpg.cf.jpg

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14 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

Then why has he not been used that way in 7 YEARS????

 

My entire argument is not only based on the very slim chance he gets 300 touches, its also based on that I think he is a complete JAG.  But, if you truly don't understand that you are more susceptible to injury with a higher workload than you've had in all 5 of your NFL seasons COMBINED, I don't know what else to say to you.  

It's like predicting Usain Bolt to come in top 5 in the Boston Marathon, after never having run a marathon.

It's like predicting 200 innings, 20 wins, and 300 strikeouts for Aroldis Chapman the first year he were moved into the rotation after never throwing more than 70 innings.

 

These may not be great analogies, but I'm trying to speak some type of language that sinks in.  If Williams does what you all project, it will be the first time in NFL history that I'm aware of.  He wasn't a 5 star high school recruit and been in a coma the last 7 years, he's been a JAG the entire decade, save a month when the Chiefs depth chart was ravaged.

 

 

 

You’d have to ask Gase that question.

I think you may have veered off of answering my question.  Why is he inherently more likely to be injured than any other RB?  Are you suggesting it’s because he’s a “JAG”?  Why would that even be relevant?

FWIW, from what I’ve seen of him, he reminds me of McCoy in terms of his ability to absorb blows from defenders in a  way that reduces his risk of serious injury.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

You’d have to ask Gase that question.

I think you may have veered off of answering my question.  Why is he inherently more likely to be injured than any other RB?  Are you suggesting it’s because he’s a “JAG”?  Why would that even be relevant?

FWIW, from what I’ve seen of him, he reminds me of McCoy in terms of his ability to absorb blows from defenders in a  way that reduces his risk of serious injury.

 

The Gase stuff is crap.  I get it, you guys don't like him because he burned you for some reason.  I know you're all averse to historical fact, but here are a few more:

 

2016 - Miami Dolphins ranked 9th in the NFL in yards per carry at 4.5.  Damien Williams had 3.3 Yards per carry in his limited role.

2017 - Miami Dolphins ranked 24th in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.9.  Damien Williams had 3.9 Yards per carry in his limited role.  Kenyan Drake had 4.8.

 

The narrative that Gase held Williams back is complete rubbish.  If anything, you could argue for Drake this year.

 

In regards to the question about being more likely to get injured than another RB, based on a full workload that you all project, which he's never done in his life, I think I state my case pretty clearly in the prior reply, and other in the last 5 pages of this thread.

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2 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

The Gase stuff is crap.  I get it, you guys don't like him because he burned you for some reason.  I know you're all averse to historical fact, but here are a few more:

 

2016 - Miami Dolphins ranked 9th in the NFL in yards per carry at 4.5.  Damien Williams had 3.3 Yards per carry in his limited role.

2017 - Miami Dolphins ranked 24th in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.9.  Damien Williams had 3.9 Yards per carry in his limited role.  Kenyan Drake had 4.8.

 

The narrative that Gase held Williams back is complete rubbish.  If anything, you could argue for Drake this year.

 

In regards to the question about being more likely to get injured than another RB, based on a full workload that you all project, which he's never done in his life, I think I state my case pretty clearly in the prior reply, and other in the last 5 pages of this thread.

So, if I’m understanding you correctly, the leading reasons he will likely sustain injury are: 1) he’s unlikely to receive 300 touches; and 2) he’s a JAG.

The first reason is a real head-scratcher as receiving fewer touches would only limit his risk exposure to injury.  And the second is also puzzling, as I don’t imagine there is any meaningful correlation between how good of a player you are and how likely you are to be injured at some point.

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15 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

The Gase stuff is crap.  I get it, you guys don't like him because he burned you for some reason.  I know you're all averse to historical fact, but here are a few more:

 

2016 - Miami Dolphins ranked 9th in the NFL in yards per carry at 4.5.  Damien Williams had 3.3 Yards per carry in his limited role.

2017 - Miami Dolphins ranked 24th in the NFL in yards per carry at 3.9.  Damien Williams had 3.9 Yards per carry in his limited role.  Kenyan Drake had 4.8.

 

The narrative that Gase held Williams back is complete rubbish.  If anything, you could argue for Drake this year.

 

In regards to the question about being more likely to get injured than another RB, based on a full workload that you all project, which he's never done in his life, I think I state my case pretty clearly in the prior reply, and other in the last 5 pages of this thread.

 

 

yeah I mean I rly like Drake this year. I wished he was on the Chiefs lol. 

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18 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Well it doesn’t really matter for fantasy, but extrapolated from 6 to 16 games, you would have roughly:

 

220 carries, 1100 yards, 16 TDs

85 receptions, 670 yards, 10.6 TDs

=

Something like 370 points 0.5ppr.

 

 

Ok well I think we would both agree that this one is highly unlikely to happen because as you said earlier in that 6 game stretch damien was at all time historic level of dominance and all time historic levels are hard to repeat so it's fair to assume he'd do a little worse than this. Also 26 tds by an rb has only been done 4 times in the history of the nfl.

18 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

220 for 1000 and 10

70 for 800 and 8

=

323 points 0.5 ppr.

 

I dont think the recieving stats are possible here either. Running backs hardly ever average over 10 yards per catch. Damien didnt do it last year in his beast mode 6 games and no rb did it last year that had any significant amount of catches 30+ (Saquon 91 for 700) ( CMC 107 for 890) damien's career average is 8.5 yp catch. So it would be something like 70 for 600 yards

23 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

200 for 1000 and 9

60 for 600 and 7

= 296 points.

 

That math is wrong I believe its actually 286 points. But maybe I did it wrong.

This is closer to more likely 200 for 1000 would mean he averaged 5ypc which is doable (CMC and saquon did it last year) but the recieving yards is still probably a little high cuss RBS dont average 10 yards per catch.

Probably more like 60 for 510 yards.

Making 277 points his floor. Which is still like rb4 but in order for all these to happen he will have to score 16 or more TDs which isnt a low number. I know last year he was on pace for 26 but that was historically awesome and mahomes will likely come down to earth a little bringing everyone's stats down a little. An RB has scored 16 or more touchdowns ten times since 2010 so its possible just unlikely. 

The chiefs defense is also better so maybe every game wont be a 45 point shootout thus bring total TDs down a little. 

In the end everything you said is doable but its also possible he flamed out. I mean more RBS flame out than score 16 tds lol.

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1 minute ago, BMcP said:

So, if I’m understanding you correctly, the leading reasons he will likely sustain injury are: 1) he’s unlikely to receive 300 touches; and 2) he’s a JAG.

The first reason is a real head-scratcher as receiving fewer touches would only limit his risk exposure to injury.  And the second is also puzzling, as I don’t imagine there is any meaningful correlation between how good of a player you are and how likely you are to be injured at some point.

 

Sweet jesus.  He's a JAG, yes, you've understood that correctly.  That is my stance on Damien Williams.  I believe he is unlikely to receive 300 touches because of the following reasons, all combined:

1) Never done it.  If a player has never done it, on any level of any sport, I do not bet on him to do it with my currency.

2) Played an every down role in a limited sample due to necessity, not design.  He was the only eligible back on the roster that knew the playbook.  With any other healthy backs that knew the offense, he likely would have lost touches in my opinion.  So the lazy approach of 6 game extrapolation is extremely poor because it does not mirror the same conditions.

3) There will be at least 2 other backs in Hyde (rushing) and Thompson (receiving) who could reasonably earn a role in the Chiefs offense and I think a reasonable argument can be made that they each possess skills, that I assume will be utilized, otherwise they wouldn't have been signed/drafted.

4) The same way there are flags/concerns on any RB as they near 30 years old, with all the mileage they've accrued, I believe increasing a players workload exponentially in year 6 with no historical precedence for it with that player raises similar durability flags.  Now I don't know if that's just a feel thing, or there is scientific evidence to support my hypothesis any more than there is probably no scientific evidence to support a muscle/ligament is any less durable from age 27 to age 30.

 

The two guys that come to mind when thinking Damien Williams, are Chicago Bears Adrian Peterson and Oakland Raiders Lamont Jordan.  Both were great in limited roles, both flamed and burned in their opportunity as the lead guy, and were out of the league not too long after their audition.  Even then, that comparison is not fair to Jordan nor Peterson, because they had excellent collegiate careers and carried the ball over 800 times.  The Chiefs offense is great, and will allow Williams every opportunity to prove me wrong because he'll never see an 8 man box between the 20's, but I'll stick with historical precedent every time.  I would have a great success rate with that formula.

 

As Mike Felger on Boston Radio likes to say, "you are circumsizing the mosquito" when trying to reduce an argument to scientific probability of injury in two different ligaments or muscles.  I'm looking at a much broader array of information to come to my conclusion.

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7 minutes ago, JSA2422 said:

 

 

yeah I mean I rly like Drake this year. I wished he was on the Chiefs lol. 

The guy you are responding to is completely full of it though. D Williams was ELITE per touch in Miami, even under Gase. Better than the also well above average Drake and LIGHTYEARS better than the awful Gore.

D Williams FPPT in Miami 1.19 = elite tier in NFL

Drake = 1.09 = well above average 

Gore = 0.73 = bottom 3 starter in NFL level(around Carlos Hyde level)

Ajayi = 0.60 = one of the all-time worst in league history

 

*And that is Williams solely in Miami*

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Ok, I think I have all the info I need now. Thank you for answering my question and confirming my understanding of your answer.

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5 minutes ago, devaster said:

FPPT will decrease as touches increase. That is common sense. Gore has still been relatively good in his old age.

Damien’s has increased heavily when given volume. He was 1.19 in Miami and 1.35 over by far the highest stretch of volume he’s ever gotten in KC. His CAREER average is 1.24. 

 

Even on Scat back volume he is a low end RB1 in KC even if he regresses to below his career average this year. 

(170 touches, same as Tarik Cohen last year, would have him at 200+ points and have him at about RB12 overall last year).

 

And, on starter volume, which he is in line for, even with heavy regression down to below his average in KC, below his career average, below his average in Miami, would put him at high end RB1.

(300 touches at even HUGE regression down to 1.10 is 330 points, aka RB4 overall, even with just MASSIvE regression)

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3 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

The guy you are responding to is completely full of it though. D Williams was ELITE per touch in Miami, even under Gase. Better than the also well above average Drake and LIGHTYEARS better than the awful Gore.

D Williams FPPT in Miami 1.19 = elite tier in NFL

Drake = 1.09 = well above average 

Gore = 0.73 = bottom 3 starter in NFL level(around Carlos Hyde level)

Ajayi = 0.60 = one of the all-time worst in league history

 

*And that is Williams solely in Miami*

 

Fantasy points per touch, is that what that means?  HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

Are you the same dude who tried to argue Williams TD per Reception rate was elite like 20 pages ago?  I'm not even going to ask what that garbage statistic entails, Williams never averaged even 4.0 yards per carry in 4 seasons with Miami.  And never had more than 23 receptions.  I'm assuming Theo Riddick is similarly "Elite" by this bizarre standard.

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9 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

The guy you are responding to is completely full of it though. D Williams was ELITE per touch in Miami, even under Gase. Better than the also well above average Drake and LIGHTYEARS better than the awful Gore.

D Williams FPPT in Miami 1.19 = elite tier in NFL

Drake = 1.09 = well above average 

Gore = 0.73 = bottom 3 starter in NFL level(around Carlos Hyde level)

Ajayi = 0.60 = one of the all-time worst in league history

 

*And that is Williams solely in Miami*

 

funny you should mention "1.19" as "elite tier" because it's where kenyan drake finished in 2018.

damien williams didn't make the NFL's list of points-per-touch because he failed to meet their 80-touch minimum

1. James White, New England Patriots (1.53): White finished the season on a low note, but he did rank seventh among backs in PPR formats. He ranked just 26th at the position in touches, however, so he wasn't a true featured back. White's best success came as a receiver, averaging 2.35 points per catch.

2. Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns (1.52): Johnson barely met our criteria with just 87 touches, but he did produce when allowed the chance. In fact, he averaged 2.3 points per reception. His 2019 value is up in the air after the Browns added Kareem Hunt, but an offseason trade might make him very relevant.

3. Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears (1.38): Cohen was a draft bargain in his first season under Matt Nagy, rankings 11th among backs. Most of his statistical success came as a pass catcher, of course, with 73.3 percent of his points coming from that role. His PPR point per rush attempt average was just 0.59.

4. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (1.29): Kamara was 2018's point-per-touch leader at 1.59, and he was back in the top four among running backs as an NFL sophomore. And how's this for being versatile: 50.4 percent of his points as a runner, and 49.6 percent of his points came as a receiver.

5. Jalen Richard, Oakland Raiders (1.27): Richard's top-five rank proves that he's a playmaker with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, he had just 123 touches last season. His point-per-catch rate (1.89) was right behind Kamara, but Richard will find it hard to make an impact in Oakland's committee.

6. Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers (1.22): Gordon went from T-23rd in points per touch (0.84) last season to sixth in 2019. Part of that increase was that he had 117 fewer touches because he missed four games due to injuries. Still, Gordon remains an elite fantasy runner heading into 2019.

7. Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins (1.19): It still boggles the mind how Drake was held back in terms of touches when he was so productive with the football. His teammate, Frank Gore, had just five fewer touches, but the Alabama product averaged 0.58 more points per touch. It's an enigma, friends.

T-8. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (1.18) McCaffrey ranked second in PPR points behind only Saquon Barkley, and he did it despite seeing just 26 fewer touches. While CMC did more of his point scoring as a receiving threat, he did produce 40.4 percent of his total PPR points as a true runner.

T-8. Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams (1.18): Gurley's production per touch actually improved slightly compared to his 2017 average (1.12), but he also saw 28 fewer touches. A total of 61 percent of his points came as a runner, but Gurley did average a solid 1.72 PPR points per receptions as well.

10. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (1.16): Ekeler finished 25th among PPR running backs, but he was a top-10 performer based on point-per-touch totals. He was ultra-impressive as a pass catcher, averaging 2.45 PPR points per reception. He'll remain a popular handcuff for Gordon owners in 2019.

11. Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions (1.15): Riddick was actually better on a point-per-touch basis this past season than in 2017, but he also saw 36 fewer touches. He's now just a late-round PPR flier.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000001018646/article/fantasy-points-per-touch-2018-rb-leaders

 

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16 minutes ago, devaster said:

FPPT will decrease as touches increase. That is common sense. 

A reasonable individual should assume that this is common sense, but I somehow have ended up here with 56 pages of evidence that prove otherwise. 

If a baseball player filled in for somebody at the end of the season and hit two HRs in a game, would y’all project him to hit 324 HRs over a full season? This thread is giving me Polio. 

Edited by SenatorSpaceman
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3 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

funny you should mention "1.19" as "elite tier" because it's where kenyan drake finished in 2018.

damien williams didn't make the NFL's list of points-per-touch because he failed to meet their 80-touch minimum

1. James White, New England Patriots (1.53): White finished the season on a low note, but he did rank seventh among backs in PPR formats. He ranked just 26th at the position in touches, however, so he wasn't a true featured back. White's best success came as a receiver, averaging 2.35 points per catch.

2. Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns (1.52): Johnson barely met our criteria with just 87 touches, but he did produce when allowed the chance. In fact, he averaged 2.3 points per reception. His 2019 value is up in the air after the Browns added Kareem Hunt, but an offseason trade might make him very relevant.

3. Tarik Cohen, Chicago Bears (1.38): Cohen was a draft bargain in his first season under Matt Nagy, rankings 11th among backs. Most of his statistical success came as a pass catcher, of course, with 73.3 percent of his points coming from that role. His PPR point per rush attempt average was just 0.59.

4. Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints (1.29): Kamara was 2018's point-per-touch leader at 1.59, and he was back in the top four among running backs as an NFL sophomore. And how's this for being versatile: 50.4 percent of his points as a runner, and 49.6 percent of his points came as a receiver.

5. Jalen Richard, Oakland Raiders (1.27): Richard's top-five rank proves that he's a playmaker with the ball in his hands. Unfortunately, he had just 123 touches last season. His point-per-catch rate (1.89) was right behind Kamara, but Richard will find it hard to make an impact in Oakland's committee.

6. Melvin Gordon, Los Angeles Chargers (1.22): Gordon went from T-23rd in points per touch (0.84) last season to sixth in 2019. Part of that increase was that he had 117 fewer touches because he missed four games due to injuries. Still, Gordon remains an elite fantasy runner heading into 2019.

7. Kenyan Drake, Miami Dolphins (1.19): It still boggles the mind how Drake was held back in terms of touches when he was so productive with the football. His teammate, Frank Gore, had just five fewer touches, but the Alabama product averaged 0.58 more points per touch. It's an enigma, friends.

T-8. Christian McCaffrey, Carolina Panthers (1.18) McCaffrey ranked second in PPR points behind only Saquon Barkley, and he did it despite seeing just 26 fewer touches. While CMC did more of his point scoring as a receiving threat, he did produce 40.4 percent of his total PPR points as a true runner.

T-8. Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams (1.18): Gurley's production per touch actually improved slightly compared to his 2017 average (1.12), but he also saw 28 fewer touches. A total of 61 percent of his points came as a runner, but Gurley did average a solid 1.72 PPR points per receptions as well.

10. Austin Ekeler, Los Angeles Chargers (1.16): Ekeler finished 25th among PPR running backs, but he was a top-10 performer based on point-per-touch totals. He was ultra-impressive as a pass catcher, averaging 2.45 PPR points per reception. He'll remain a popular handcuff for Gordon owners in 2019.

11. Theo Riddick, Detroit Lions (1.15): Riddick was actually better on a point-per-touch basis this past season than in 2017, but he also saw 36 fewer touches. He's now just a late-round PPR flier.

http://www.nfl.com/fantasyfootball/story/0ap3000001018646/article/fantasy-points-per-touch-2018-rb-leaders

 

 

I was talking 0.5ppr.

 

Full PPR in 2018 D Williams was 1.59.

 

And get this: because he used to be a scat back, in PPR, his CAREER FPPT is 1.61.

 

yeah dude. Yeah.

 

You might not like it, but over nearly 300 career touches D Williams is at or close to being the MOST PRODUCTIVE RB IN NFL HISTORY PER TOUCH. Whether it be in Miami or KC. He has consistently been this.

 

Now, is he going to get touches? If so, he is in line for one of the best RB fantasy seasons of all time. 

 

Again, you might not like it, but that is reality.

 

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3 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

A reasonable individual should assume that this is common sense, but I somehow have ended up here with 56 pages of evidence that prove otherwise. 

If a baseball player filled in for somebody at the end of the season and hit two HRs in a game, would y’all project him to hit 324 HRs over a full season? This thread is goving me Polio. 

 

ElroyPedro drafted Stephen Pearce in the 2nd Round of his fantasy baseball league this year.

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6 minutes ago, devaster said:

FPPT will decrease as touches increase. That is common sense. Gore has still been relatively good in his old age.

Not necessarily.  It will decrease as the ratio of rushes to receptions swings more in the favor of rushes.  I think KC will use Williams in a similar manner as they did last year.  Why wouldn't they?  He was successful in that role.  He may only get 14-16 touches per game but 1/3 of them will be receptions.  I still don't think his total TD's will more than 12, but he should get the majority of touches at RB.  I think he finishes as a top 8 RB and will obviously be even more of a weapon in PPR.

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3 minutes ago, SenatorSpaceman said:

A reasonable individual should assume that this is common sense, but I somehow have ended up here with 56 pages of evidence that prove otherwise. 

If a baseball player filled in for somebody at the end of the season and hit two HRs in a game, would y’all project him to hit 324 HRs over a full season? This thread is goving me Polio. 

 

Now, if a player came in for 60 games and hit 27 HRs as a part time starter, would you feel comfortable projecting him to hit 55 HRs over 162?

 

Any “reasonable” person would.

 

But why the hell are you speaking in riddles and weird narrative stories and bad analogies rather then dealing with reality?

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1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

 

Now, if a player came in for 60 games and hit 27 HRs as a part time starter, would you feel comfortable projecting him to hit 55 HRs over 162?

 

Any “reasonable” person would.

 

But why the hell are you speaking in riddles and weird narrative stories and bad analogies rather then dealing with reality?

Not many reasonable people would since it has been done so few times in a career over the length of a full season. Extrapolation is fine, but it should also be modeled to after predictable trends for those stats.

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1 minute ago, WEIL3R said:

Not necessarily.  It will decrease as the ratio of rushes to receptions swings more in the favor of rushes.  I think KC will use Williams in a similar manner as they did last year.  Why wouldn't they?  He was successful in that role.  He may only get 14-16 touches per game but 1/3 of them will be receptions.  I still don't think his total TD's will more than 12, but he should get the majority of touches at RB.  I think he finishes as a top 8 RB and will obviously be even more of a weapon in PPR.

 

Heres the thing. Those are below BASEMENT level touches and TDs for Williams. 

 

Hunt averaged 20 touches starting in KC. Ware averaged 19. Williams averaged 18.6 last year despite sitting half of one of his few games, and taken that into account he averaged 20. A fair touch projection is 19-20 for Williams.

 

He also averaged 1.7  TDs per game, again not starting all those games and resting one half of one of them for the playoffs. He scored 10 TDs in 4 full games and 2 partial ones.

 

 

You have to realize 14-16 touches and 12 TDs is basically impossibly low for him. And even so, on those numbers well below his floor, he is still an RB1.

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