Jump to content
NBC Sports EDGE Forums

Damien Williams 2019 Outlook


Joe Odam
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 minutes ago, devaster said:

Not many reasonable people would since it has been done so few times in a career over the length of a full season. Extrapolation is fine, but it should also be modeled to after predictable trends for those stats.

 

Not true. 55 HRs is not particularly unique, nor would 300-320+ fantasy points be. 3 RBs easily eclipsed that number last year. 

 

AND, this isn’t just extrapolation, it IS factoring in HEAVY REGRESSION and is very conservative as a projection.

Edited by elroypedro
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

Now, if a player came in for 60 games and hit 27 HRs as a part time starter, would you feel comfortable projecting him to hit 55 HRs over 162?

 

Any “reasonable” person would.

 

But why the hell are you speaking in riddles and weird narrative stories and bad analogies rather then dealing with reality?

 

NO, I would not feel comfortable projecting 55 HR for him because its been done by 12 human beings in the 150 year history of Major League baseball and once in the last 13 years.

 

That is the difference between me and you.  You take small sample extrapolated times a full season.  I look at a much broader range of data.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

Now, if a player came in for 60 games and hit 27 HRs as a part time starter, would you feel comfortable projecting him to hit 55 HRs over 162?

 

Any “reasonable” person would.

 

But why the hell are you speaking in riddles and weird narrative stories and bad analogies rather then dealing with reality?

 

No. Most reasonable people wouldnt. Chris Davis hit 37 Homer's before the all star break. Finished the 2nd half of the season with only 16 more. Sometimes your red hot then ya taper off. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

 

NO, I would not feel comfortable projecting 55 HR for him because its been done by 12 human beings in the 150 year history of Major League baseball and once in the last 13 years.

 

That is the difference between me and you.  You take small sample extrapolated times a full season.  I look at a much broader range of data.

 

Well this shows how ridiculously poor your judgement and thought process is. 

 

If a player hit 27 HRs in 60 games, and you wouldn’t project him to hit 55 HR in 162 games you would be mocked by every player, manager, gambler in the world. EVERY SINGLE ONE.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

All of this bickering could be condensed into one irrefutable fact: if he indeed remains the starter for the Chiefs all season, he will give you RB1 numbers.

If you believe he is doomed for injury (e.g., because of his skill level or failure to hit 300 touches), just steer clear of him.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Stonej14 said:

 

No. Most reasonable people wouldnt. Chris Davis hit 37 Homer's before the all star break. Finished the 2nd half of the season with only 16 more. Sometimes your red hot then ya taper off. 

 

Perfect example to prove my point!

 

So in about 90 games, he has 37 HRs, and in about 70 he has 16. He did fall off from 0.4 HRs per game to 0.25 HRs per game.

 

in my example, the player would be going from 0.45 HRs per game to 0.33 HRs per game the next year.

 

So Davis regresses 0.15 HRs per game in your one example of a player really really falling off hard, and in my example the player regresses 0.12 HRs per game. 

 

Incredibly reasonable and on the VERY low end of projection. Clear as day.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, elroypedro said:

 

Well this shows how ridiculously poor your judgement and thought process is. 

 

If a player hit 27 HRs in 60 games, and you wouldn’t project him to hit 55 HR in 162 games you would be mocked by every player, manager, gambler in the world. EVERY SINGLE ONE.

 

Again, statistics and history are your friends.  I suggest you look them up.  To again prove your premise asinine with historical fact, Albert Bell holds the American League record for Home Runs in both the month of July (16) and the month of September (17).  He has never hit more than 50 HR.  Small sample extrapolation NEVER works out.

 

Belle had 30 HR in August and September of 1995, in 58 games, ended the season with 50 HR.  Had 48 HR the following year.  It's like wrong is your oxygen.

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Sack Exchange said:

 

 

if ever there was a candidate for the @Axe Elf incognito return, you'd be it pedro---and i'm almost fully convinced your'e him---though instead of touting the ryan tannehill + devante parker stack, you're stuck on dwilly.

6/6 dynasty leagues must really value your insight and enjoy your humility

 

 

 

He is exciteable but most of what he is saying is true 

 

Unless you think Williams will get injured he is a sure fire RB1

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

Heres the thing. Those are below BASEMENT level touches and TDs for Williams. 

 

Hunt averaged 20 touches starting in KC. Ware averaged 19. Williams averaged 18.6 last year despite sitting half of one of his few games, and taken that into account he averaged 20. A fair touch projection is 19-20 for Williams.

 

He also averaged 1.7  TDs per game, again not starting all those games and resting one half of one of them for the playoffs. He scored 10 TDs in 4 full games and 2 partial ones.

 

 

You have to realize 14-16 touches and 12 TDs is basically impossibly low for him. And even so, on those numbers well below his floor, he is still an RB1.

I don't think KC needs to give him more than 14-16 touches for him to be potent and remain effective.  That's what they did in most games he started last season.  It's good that he showed that he can tote it more if necessary in the playoffs.  His carries hung around 10 and his receptions hung around 5.  I don't think that's a bad thing.  He stays fresh.  If they get a big lead you'll probably see more of Hyde and the rookie (as long as he can pass block).  Williams will probably get the majority of touches in the first half and get spelled more in the second.  Why not keep him fresh?

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, DerrickHenrysCleats said:

 

He is exciteable but most of what he is saying is true 

 

Unless you think Williams will get injured he is a sure fire RB1

 

I think most ppl think he can be. I do for sure. But 330 point seasons are pretty tough to come by. 286 point seasons are tough and that's apparently William's floor

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

I don't think KC needs to give him more than 14-16 touches for him to be potent and remain effective.  That's what they did in most games he started last season.  It's good that he showed that he can tote it more if necessary in the playoffs.  His carries hung around 10 and his receptions hung around 5.  I don't think that's a bad thing.  He stays fresh.  If they get a big lead you'll probably see more of Hyde and the rookie (as long as he can pass block).  Williams will probably get the majority of touches in the first half and get spelled more in the second.  Why not keep him fresh?

 

That is a nice story, but most evidence points strongly to that being a very low projection. A very conservative, but more fair projection could be as low as 18 touches per game. 

 

For example, here are his touches last year:

12(didn’t start game)

16

20

12(sat 2nd half resting for playoffs)

35

15

 

So in the full games he started, he had touches of 15, 16, 20, 35.

 

I think it is MUCH more fair to say 14-16 touches is below his floor for average touches, and is more his floor for total touches in an individual game.

 

Clearly, his ceiling for touches is in the 30s, but that was mostly game script having him run the ball a ton.

 

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, in case you haven’t followed D Williams throughout his career and didn’t actually watch him play and dominate last year, here are a few examples of his massive talent, that he has had flashed when given the chance many times, since I first watched him at OU:

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-game-highlights/0ap3000000999517/Damien-Williams-TRUCK-of-Derwin-James-is-negated-by-illegal-shift

Absolutely ****** up Derwin James

 

https://www.chiefs.com/video/damien-williams-wicked-moves-gets-chiefs-first-touchdown

Elite vision, patience, cut, and burst. Just phenomenal talent to pull this off.

 

 

There are many more, especially of him as a receiver. He is just fun to watch and it isn’t just situation. He’s legitimately very talented, and in no way a JAG. Anyone who says so is just completely clueless

Edited by elroypedro
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Should be a good bet to finish as a bottom-end RB1. Extrapolating numbers to project an all-time-great RB seasons is nuts. Calling him a flat-out JAG is also nuts. He’s probably an above-average talent playing in quite possibly the #1 offense and we’ve seen many a JAG put up RB1 numbers on high-powered O’s.

Edited by smeeze
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

That is a nice story, but most evidence points strongly to that being a very low projection. A very conservative, but more fair projection could be as low as 18 touches per game. 

 

For example, here are his touches last year:

12(didn’t start game)

16

20

12(sat 2nd half resting for playoffs)

35

15

 

So in the full games he started, he had touches of 15, 16, 20, 35.

 

I think it is MUCH more fair to say 14-16 touches is below his floor for average touches, and is more his floor for total touches in an individual game.

 

Clearly, his ceiling for touches is in the 30s, but that was mostly game script having him run the ball a ton.

 

 

 

 

I'm glad you like my story. Thankfully many good ones are grounded in the truth.  Keep in mind I did say I think he would finish top 8 at RB.

 

The Chiefs didn't have good RB's to spell Williams at the end of 2018.  Hunt got cut and Ware was hurt weeks 15, 16, 17 and into the playoffs.  So that 20 touch game and 35 touch game for Williams came when they were thin at RB.  With competent and trusted RB's behind him, I could see Williams sitting closer to 15 touches per game (the number he was at or close to before and after Ware missed those games).

 

Also, I didn't address your TD comments from my last post.  His TD rate is unsustainable.  The KC offense is due for some regression, even though I still expect it to remain elite. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, WEIL3R said:

Also, I didn't address your TD comments from my last post.  His TD rate is unsustainable.  The KC offense is due for some regression, even though I still expect it to remain elite. 

 

Yea in order for him to be a top 4 or 5 back i think hes gonna need 15 or more TDs and that's just extremely hard to do. I think he'll finish around rb 6 or 7 instead... which is still awesome but through out reids tenure as a head coach his starting RB averaged around 10.8 tds a season sometimes they're as high as 20 sometimes ita 5. Last year was clearly an up year. 

Edited by Stonej14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again, Hunt had 14 in 11 full games and D Williams 10 in 6 games, 2 of them partial.

15 is not high.

 

And all this regression you guys are talking about I have factored in HEAVILY from last year. 

 

There still hasnt been even one sound point point made here against him. Not even one

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

Again, Hunt had 14 in 11 full games and D Williams 10 in 6 games, 2 of them partial.

15 is not high.

 

And all this regression you guys are talking about I have factored in HEAVILY from last year. 

 

There still hasnt been even one sound point point made here against him. Not even one

 

Well like I said before theres only been 10 backs in the last 9 years get 16 or more total TDs so it kinda is high and in the past 15 years reids starting back averages 10.8 tds a season

 

Your drawing your information from one historic season and I'm drawing it from over a decade of info.

It's fine we can disagree but I think that's a pretty good piece of information. I mean one year lesean McCoy had 20 tds for reid the next year he had 5tds. It happens.

 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Stonej14 said:

 

Well like I said before theres only been 10 backs in the last 9 years get 16 or more total TDs so it kinda is high and in the past 15 years reids starting back averages 10.8 tds a season

 

Your drawing your information from one historic season and I'm drawing it from over a decade of info.

It's fine we can disagree but I think that's a pretty good piece of information. I mean one year lesean McCoy had 20 tds for reid the next year he had 5tds. It happens.

 

 

Youre just confused, and still you aren’t understanding why. I’ve laid it out very clearly, but again, slower:

 

The given projections are based on 16 games played, which is why end of season totals don’t seem that high historically, because on average startable fantasy RBs and above miss 3-4 games per season. 

Really think about this before responding with the same wrong argument again.

 

So for a 15 TD season you aren’t counting, for example, last year, when either Hunt(14 in  11 games) or Damien Williams(10 in 6 games) would both have easily hit that mark and would like have had 20+- over a 16 game span.

 

 

On that note, the even worse arguments being made that ANYBODY is expecting impossible, rare, historic numbers from Williams also need to stop because:

 

16 game total of 320 points is equal to 20 Ppg.

16 game total of 352 points = 22 Ppg.

16 game tots of 384 points = 24 ppg.

 

9 players in just the last 3 years alone averaged above 20 ppg. 5 of those happened last year, and the trend, because of the pass catching bellcow, is for more and more to be happening going into the future.

4 players in the last 3 years averaged 22 ppg.

4 players in the last 3 years averaged 23 ppg.

1 player in the last 3 years averaged 24 ppg, and it was last year.

 

 

These projections aren’t rare at all. Hope you can see that more clearly now.

Edited by elroypedro
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, elroypedro said:

 

Youre just confused, and still you aren’t understanding why. I’ve laid it out VERY clearly, but again, slower:

 

The given projections are based on 16 games played, which is why end of season totals don’t seem that high historically, because on average startable fantasy RBs and above miss on average 3-4 games per season. 

Really think about this before responding withthe same wrong argument again.

 

So for a 15 TD season you aren’t counting, for example, last year, when either Hunt(14 in  11 games) or Damien Williams(10 in 6 games) would both have easily hit that mark and would like have had 20+- over a 16 game span.

 

 

On that note, the even worse argument that ANYBODY is expecting impossible, rare, historic numbers from Williams also need to stop because:

 

16 game total of 320 points is equal to 20 Ppg.

16 game total of 363 points = 22 Ppg.

 

9 players in just the last 3 years alone averaged above 20 ppg. 5 of those happened last year, and the trend, because of the pass catching bellcow, is for more and more to be happening going into the future.

4 players in the last 3 years averaged 22 ppg.

4 players in the last 3 years averaged 23 ppg.

1 player in the last 3 years averaged 24 ppg, and it was last year.

 

 

These projections aren’t rare at all. Hope you can see that more clearly now.

 

I'm not confused. I get it. Ya dont need to be so condescending because I'm trying really hard to extend an olive branch and understand this line of thinking even tho it seems bat s--- crazy

 

I said he would need 15 TDs to be a top 4 or 5 back. If he misses 3 or 4 games he wont be a top 3 or 4 back and he wont get 15 tds.

James Conner was a top 5 back for nearly the entire season and averaged over 20 points per game. He missed 3 games ended the RB 6. The only way for William's to miss 3 or 4 games and be a top 5 guy is to score a boat load of TDs in that span like gurely which I dont believe will happen.

All that being said I dont believe he will score 16 tds if he plays all 16 games because it is hard I just pointed out that Andy reids backs average 10.8tds over 15 years of data. But it is possible I just dont think it will happen and you do.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Root Admin

The rhetoric and vitriol in this thread needs to come way down.  JFC, it's July.  Some of you guys aren't going to last to week one at this pace.  Let's have everyone slow their roll.  We're here to exchange opinions, not to try to win biggest jerkoff of the season.  Please get back to some respectful debates and exchange of ideas.  Thanks.

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've enjoyed the thread.  Not sure I see what all the warnings are about unless some posts have been deleted.  For the most part people are offering statistically supported defense of their stances, and/or colorful comps to support their beliefs.  It's July, not sure what everyone is supposed to be doing on these threads, talking about how they looked in shorts?  Isn't the whole purpose of this thing to provide your thoughts, projections, analysis, etc., particularly before the drafts?

If there were a guy I was on the fence about, the arguments laid out in these threads are hugely helpful in determining which side to lean on for draft day.  I'd argue there is more information about Damien Williams situation on this thread than any draft book or website out there.  Wherever he finishes this season, I suspect some will point to this thread as support in there decision to draft or not draft him.

You hold some boy's draft future in your hands, committee. It's a valuable future. Believe me. Don't destroy it! Protect it. Embrace it. It's gonna make ya proud one day -- I promise you.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...