Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook

[CABLE87 1,749]

I regret taking him right now.....

[Brownsfan74 889]

Where is he going now?  It's similar to Zeke in that you can take him and then get Ekeler early and be sort of ok, even if he doesn't play this year.

[herschel 1,995]

I don’t get the “get Ekeler and all will be Ok” theory.  I owned Gordon last year and not Ekeler so I remember watching the games Ekeler started when Gordon was hurt (to punish myself) and actually not being that upset because he didn’t do that much.  I’m going strictly from memory, so my mind could be playing tricks on me, but from what I recall, this was far from a Le’Veon/Conner scenario.

Edited August 26, 2019 by herschel

[Asapjoshy 240]

Just now, herschel said:

I don’t get the “get Ekeler and all will be Ok” theory.  I owned Gordon last year and not Ekeler so I remember watching the games Ekeler started when Gordon was hurt (to punish myself) and actually not being that upset because he didn’t do that much.  I’m going strictly from memory, so my mind could be playing tricks on me, but from what I recall, this was far from a Le’Veon/Conner scenario.

Its not even close to Conner / Leveon

chargers will run a committee with ekeler / Justin Jackson ... ekeler for ppr will be solid and at the price Justin Jackson in standard could be a solid bench guy / last flex 

[WEIL3R 250]

1 minute ago, Brownsfan74 said:

Where is he going now?  It's similar to Zeke in that you can take him and then get Ekeler early and be sort of ok, even if he doesn't play this year.

It's important to note that both Gordon and Zeke are still under contract (unlike when Bell held out), so they have to play this year (or retire).  If they don't play, they will still have the same amount of years on their respective contracts in 2020 as they did to start 2019.  And they will be a year older and made no money in 2019. 

 

Bell was in a unique situation where the franchise tag language was ambiguous regarding situations where the player didn't play the entire season.  Bell would have had to be kept at a much higher franchise tag pay rate in 2019 (based on average top QB pay rates) than his tag price in 2018 (based on average top RB pay rates).  Steelers were never going to pay that. Completely different situations.

[Chardo 507]

The difference is that Gordon is a guy you expect to carry your team, and Ekeler is a guy you desperately plug in your lineup because you have no better depth and you just hope he produces.  The idea that you can draft Gordon and just get Ekeler too and everything will be fine is foolish.  It's extremely rare for a handcuff to be a legit RB1 when they step in. 

[Chardo 507]

I'm still waiting for a team to sue a holdout for breach of contract. 

[CABLE87 1,749]

So right now he's paying $30,000 dollars a day plus $300,000+ for each game he misses.... So he misses one more that's in the 1mil department.

[SharkSwimmer 4,956]

Keep up with the wishful thinking.  Melvin Gordon does not care about a bunch of fines.

[WEIL3R 250]

52 minutes ago, SharkSwimmer said:

Keep up with the wishful thinking.  Melvin Gordon does not care about a bunch of fines.

I agree with that.  The fines are typically an illusion anyway and are waived once the player shows up.  However, I think everyone has a bit of recency bias in our minds from Bell and this is a very different situation (ie. Gordon has less leverage).  It's still unusual for a holdout to drag out very far into the regular season.  I don't begrudge Gordon from trying to get paid while he's still a very productive RB, but it sounds like the offer is pretty fair ($10-$11 million per year).  Worst case scenario is he shows up week 9 or 10 (depending on the Chargers bye week this season).  Well, the technical worst case scenario is that the Chargers further punish Gordon at that point and put him on the roster exemption list for a couple games, but that would be harming them as team.  But they have done it before with Vincent Jackson so who knows.

[SharkSwimmer 4,956]

People bought Melvin Gordon for cheap, hoping he would end his holdout and then they would cash in.  I think they rolled the dice and lost.

[Impreza178 6,046]

13 hours ago, Chardo said:

I'm still waiting for a team to sue a holdout for breach of contract. 

 

Never gonna happen.   Penalties for failing to meet contract terms are defined and collectively bargained in the CBA.   

 

13 hours ago, Chardo said:

The difference is that Gordon is a guy you expect to carry your team, and Ekeler is a guy you desperately plug in your lineup because you have no better depth and you just hope he produces.  The idea that you can draft Gordon and just get Ekeler too and everything will be fine is foolish.  It's extremely rare for a handcuff to be a legit RB1 when they step in. 

 

One does not draft a cuff to replicate the starters numbers.   Merely an insurance policy for 70-80%- hopefully.  

Last season the Chargers produced a top 10 and a top 24 PPR back.    They use their backs a lot and that’s not changing while old man Rivers is there.   Can’t tell you which will end up more valuable...but for the price and where this MG3 situation sits I’ll gladly take a shot on the Chargers backups.    

Edited August 27, 2019 by Impreza178

[Savatage79 2,427]

Landed him at 6.1, how could I pass? And even better he's a keeper for me next year with that pick. so uh, lets go Melvin? 😛

[pastorofmuppets2 10,634]

15 hours ago, Chardo said:

The difference is that Gordon is a guy you expect to carry your team, and Ekeler is a guy you desperately plug in your lineup because you have no better depth and you just hope he produces.  The idea that you can draft Gordon and just get Ekeler too and everything will be fine is foolish.  It's extremely rare for a handcuff to be a legit RB1 when they step in. 

 

unless they're James Conner. 

or CJA.

or Lindsey. 

or Damien Williams. 

 

( ... and that's just from last season).

[PhilaFanBoy 313]

11 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

People bought Melvin Gordon for cheap, hoping he would end his holdout and then they would cash in.  I think they rolled the dice and lost.

 

It isn't even Week 1 yet. Let's say that when it's week 3 and there's still no news about Gordon. A deal could be struck any day. We have no idea what's going on behind the scenes. Gordon's agent/the Chargers could have a date circled on their calendar for when they'd make a compromise. Could be September 1st (a week before opening day) or the Tuesday after week 1.

 

16 hours ago, Chardo said:

The difference is that Gordon is a guy you expect to carry your team, and Ekeler is a guy you desperately plug in your lineup because you have no better depth and you just hope he produces.  The idea that you can draft Gordon and just get Ekeler too and everything will be fine is foolish.  It's extremely rare for a handcuff to be a legit RB1 when they step in. 

 

I agree. Better to take someone like Duke Johnson (if you can get him late) than take Ekeler early. There isn't a workhorse handcuff like James Conner this year. I personally drafted Matt Breida instead of handcuffing Melvin Gordon with Ekeler/Justin Jackson.

[Chardo 507]

What is the history of holdouts reporting just in time, or early in the season?  Did they play up to expectation?  Any injuries?

[Brownsfan74 889]

47 minutes ago, PhilaFanBoy said:

Better to take someone like Duke Johnson (if you can get him late) than take Ekeler early.

 

As things stand at this moment in time, Duke Johnson should be going ahead of Ekeler in every draft.  Not way ahead, but ahead.  He's the most obvious candidate to get Lamar Miller's work, unless you are a believer in Damarea Crockett.

Of course, I expect the Texans to pick someone up or make a trade or something before week 1.

[y2jbones 257]

12 hours ago, SharkSwimmer said:

People bought Melvin Gordon for cheap, hoping he would end his holdout and then they would cash in.  I think they rolled the dice and lost.

It’s way too early to call it a loss. Even if he doesn’t come back until week 4, he’s still a great value in the 5th round or later. He would be a first round pick if we knew he was playing 16 games. 

[SharkSwimmer 4,956]

14 minutes ago, y2jbones said:

It’s way too early to call it a loss. Even if he doesn’t come back until week 4, he’s still a great value in the 5th round or later. He would be a first round pick if we knew he was playing 16 games. 

Calling things early is kind of my schtick.  Doesn't always pan out, of course.

[pastorofmuppets2 10,634]

57 minutes ago, Chardo said:

What is the history of holdouts reporting just in time, or early in the season?  Did they play up to expectation?  Any injuries?

 

last significant rb talent was Bell two seasons ago - started slow, but then biz as usual ... would expect same here if MGIII shows up prior to week one ... vet QB, surrounded by tons of talent, total familiarity with the gig. 

[DarinB300 2,429]

I drafted him in the 6th rd & Ekeler in the 10th rd. If MG3 sits out most / all of the season, I do not expect Ekeler to be a top 6 RB! However, Rivers likes to throw to his RB, so in a ppr league, imo, he brings great value as a RB2/Flex type RB. Especially in the 10th Rd. People will have their own opinions, but if you like a guy, go get him. If not, stay away. Pretty simple.

[The_Truth_Returns 447]

Can someone explain to me why Melvin Gordon is going in the 5th Round when Zeke's ADP has remain unchanged at #4 overall when as far I know they have the identical situation?

 

Are people just assuming Jerry will cave and give Zeke the big money?  Of the two, Gordon is just the better human being, and in my opinion more likely to take less than top market to not let his teammates down.  All things considered, I think Gordon is a value.  But maybe there is something I'm unaware of?

 

[FantasyGuru24 272]

22 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Can someone explain to me why Melvin Gordon is going in the 5th Round when Zeke's ADP has remain unchanged at #4 overall when as far I know they have the identical situation?

 

Are people just assuming Jerry will cave and give Zeke the big money?  Of the two, Gordon is just the better human being, and in my opinion more likely to take less than top market to not let his teammates down.  All things considered, I think Gordon is a value.  But maybe there is something I'm unaware of?

 

 

Yep. And the fact that the Chargers can win without Gordon with two capable backs in Eker and Jackson. The cowboys offense runs through Zeke. Jerry will cave if the cowboys start off 0-2. Gordon’s coming back in week 10

[m_cox22 241]

7 minutes ago, FantasyGuru24 said:

 

Yep. And the fact that the Chargers can win without Gordon with two capable backs in Eker and Jackson. The cowboys offense runs through Zeke. Jerry will cave if the cowboys start off 0-2. Gordon’s coming back in week 10

They play the Giants, Redskins, and Dolphins. I don't think there will be any freaking out, atleast not early in the season.

I just don't understand how you draft Zeke in the first round until he signs. Is there really that big of difference between Zeke and the next guy you would risk your entire season?

[nonstopfan 4,593]

39 minutes ago, The_Truth_Returns said:

Can someone explain to me why Melvin Gordon is going in the 5th Round when Zeke's ADP has remain unchanged at #4 overall when as far I know they have the identical situation?

 

Are people just assuming Jerry will cave and give Zeke the big money?  Of the two, Gordon is just the better human being, and in my opinion more likely to take less than top market to not let his teammates down.  All things considered, I think Gordon is a value.  But maybe there is something I'm unaware of?

 

 

I had no plans of touching Gordon any in any league, but I was faced with my worst case scenario in my 12 teamer keeper and Gordon was sitting there in the 3rd round (equivalent to a 4th round pick). It made me look at the situation again and I felt kind of like you felt. Why should I let a potential top 5 back slip anymore so I snagged him.. If he comes back soon, saavy owners easily got the steal of the draft. Also, there is now the "possibility" of a trade to a team like the Texans. Again, there should be no reason for him to fall that far. If the worse case scenario happens, I'll deal with it. I lost McKinnon (3rd round pick) last year and still made the finals. The risk in Melvin is an even greater reward.

In regards to Zeke

The Cowboys and Zeke seem to be in the same ball park at least. It looks like the 'Boys just offered him another contract today, reportedly close to Gurley's deal but not what Gurley got guaranteed. https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/nfl/report-cowboys-offer-ezekiel-elliott-new-contract-near-todd-gurleys-annual-average/ar-AAGpirn?ocid=spartanntp. Also with Zeke, whether JJ wants to admit it or not, Zeke is the fuel that drives that train. The Cowboys don't make the playoffs without Zeke. Being in the market that they are in plus JJ's ego, I don't think people see him accepting losing. Also, he played hardball with Emmit for a little while before caving in. So there is a track record.

However, there could be a case where both sides get frustrated and did their feet in. I would no longer take Zeke as a top 5 back at this point. Just too risky. Owners can recover from a 3rd round blunder. Not so much an early first round one.

Edited August 27, 2019 by nonstopfan