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Melvin Gordon 2019 Outlook


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My map of Southern California.

It's important to note that both Gordon and Zeke are still under contract (unlike when Bell held out), so they have to play this year (or retire).  If they don't play, they will still have the same am

Melvin had a few good runs here or there but Austin Ek would have done the same if not MORE on those same runs. Austin only got 8 touches and still managed to find the end zone. austin + targets

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2 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

I enjoyed the part where you broke it down.

 

Because change of pace backs almost always have a higher YPC than the starting running backs. Limited touches + fresh legs = more efficient yardage . Ekeler started a few games last year and his number were nothing special. 

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11 minutes ago, RunCMC said:

 

Because change of pace backs almost always have a higher YPC than the starting running backs. Limited touches + fresh legs = more efficient yardage . Ekeler started a few games last year and his number were nothing special. 

 

Sure, but Ekeler is still an unknown due to his limited usage thus far. And Gordon has shown to actually be not all that great. He certainly isn't a stud. 

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28 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Ekeler has posted a higher ypa and ypr in each of his two seasons of limited action than Gordon has ever posted in his four years of extensive work. Perhaps Gordon isn't as good as you seem to think.

He had a 3.2 YPC in the 3 games he started with 40 carries in the same year Gordon had a 5.1 YPC.

Gordon has averaged over 18 Carries a game for the last 3 years with a 4.2 YPC.  Ekeler as not been asked to carry the ball 18 times even once yet. Ekeler has some skills. Could very well improve with more time to flourish as the lead back. 

Highlighting the YPC of a guy used as a COP to a bellcow is still very mis-leading.

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48 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

I enjoyed the part where you broke it down.

 

I started typing out an enormous post, but i'll just leave the game logs here.

Ekeler:

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/E/EkelAu00/gamelog/2018/

Gordon: 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/G/GordMe00/gamelog/2018/

 

Ekeler's best week was 11-77 in week 2, one which he split with Gordon.  His worst was 13-21, the game where he took over for Gordon.  Gordon has never performed that bad with over 10 carries.  He followed that with another 15-66 performance, his biggest load to date, in which he was hurt and sat the next 2 games.  That mirrored Gordon's worst game with around 15 carries, at 64.  2 other games he took it over 100.  Ekeler isn't built to carry as big of a load, and certainly excels more when he's CoP.  He's very talented, but I would not expect him to get the load like Gordon.  

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26 minutes ago, disasterisk said:

 

Sure, but Ekeler is still an unknown due to his limited usage thus far. And Gordon has shown to actually be not all that great. He certainly isn't a stud. 

 

Sure, he's not a stud, but is a perennial top 10 fantasy back.

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1 minute ago, Slatykamora said:

He had a 3.2 YPC in the 3 games he started with 40 carries in the same year Gordon had a 5.1 YPC.

Gordon has averaged over 18 Carries a game for the last 3 years with a 4.2 YPC.  Ekeler as not been asked to carry the ball 18 times even once yet. Ekeler has some skills. Could very well improve with more time to flourish as the lead back. 

Highlighting the YPC of a guy used as a COP to a bellcow is still very mis-leading.

 

This is facts. Just because the Chargers won’t pay Gordon at 13 million doesn’t mean he’s not an elite talent. And just because Ekeler is taking over for Gordon doesn’t mean he’ll be a fantasy stud. The NFL doesn’t like to overvalue the running back position. All you have to do is watch game film between both backs to notice the substantial difference in talent. 

 

Do you know what I think is going to happen to this offense if Gordon doesn’t play? Rivers is going to throw the ball down the field more, and they’ll win with Ekeler going for 6 carries 18 rushing, 7 catches, 60 receiving & Jackson carries the rock 16 times for 70 yards, 1 or 2 catches. Both RBs will be more Flex than RB2 while you’ll see breakout seasons from Mike Williams & Hunter Henry.

It’s far more likely that the Chargers are confident in Mike Williams’ growth and the return of Hunter Henry than they are confident Jackson/Ekeler will be equivalent to Gordon.

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25 minutes ago, Bowman said:

 

Pure speculation, but I could maybe see them sending Howard to LA in a package deal. Interesting. I wouldn’t have thought about Philly as a possible landing spot, but I guess I can see it. 

This is real life, not a video game or fantasy league. Jordan Howard is a real person. His family presumably just moved to Philly after he was traded from Chicago. He just spent months getting to know his new teammates and coaches, and learning the Eagles system.

I really doubt they'd now ship him to LA a couple days before the season starts. 

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Ekeler faltered when he got his shot at starting last year. He was definitely better as a cop option. Hopefully nobody expects a connor type season out of him.

 

Meanwhile gordon better figure out this trade thing fast

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1 minute ago, Guwop said:

Ekeler faltered when he got his shot at starting last year. He was definitely better as a cop option. Hopefully nobody expects a connor type season out of him.

 

Meanwhile gordon better figure out this trade thing fast

 

I think Jackson has a better shot at a Conner type season than Ekeler.  I thought Jackson was pretty good down the stretch last year.  He showed the ability to catch passes pretty well and run pretty well...and I think he's better short yardage/goaline than Ekeler.  I owned them both down the stretch last year and I was playing Jackson over Ekeler when Gordon was out.

Granted, I'm not saying I think he has a Conner season.  I'm just saying I think his odds of having that kind of season are better than Ekeler.  I think Ekeler has shown what he is....That's a COP back....10 carries or so....Good receiving RB.  I just don't think he can be much more than that.

I'd be very surprised if Gordon is back now.  It sounds like lines are being drawn.  I'd bet on Gordon being traded....Still think the Bucs make a lot of sense.  He should've taken that 10 mil/yr offer though.

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1 minute ago, tts42572 said:

I think Jackson has a better shot at a Conner type season than Ekeler.  I thought Jackson was pretty good down the stretch last year.  He showed the ability to catch passes pretty well and run pretty well...and I think he's better short yardage/goaline than Ekeler.  I owned them both down the stretch last year and I was playing Jackson over Ekeler when Gordon was out.

See? I'm (firmly) in the Ekeler camp and have seen a bunch of garbage chest-beating from Jackson owners. This? This is a completely reasonable take. And kind of the only reasonable take. I think that Ekeler was by and large the better back last year, but if someone simply thinks Jackson is going to become the better back in his second season? Draft him. Totally possible.

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