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Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook


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Stud year even with the slow down in the 2nd half.  Grey from Razzball has him at 12 overall!!!  Here is his logic...

 

" However, Chief Wahoo isn’t the only thing problematic, Jose Ramirez’s 2nd half is too.  He hit 10 HRs and .218 in the 2nd half.  Could the league have finally figured him out?  His strikeouts were identical in the 2nd half, and his walks actually went up.  His SLG, OBP, hard contact  and line drives went way down.  His BABIP bottomed out, but I can’t write off everything on luck.  Looks like he was biting on opposite field strikes (and balls) a lot more.  Okay, so bad 2nd half, can we just write it off?  Let’s take a step further back to the full season.  His infield fly balls were terrible.  That says bad contact.  It’s not everything, but he was 26th worst in the league, and no one worst than him is above him in the rankings.  His fly ball rate was 45.9%, easily a career high.  He was 8th in the league for fly balls.  Above him, you see home run hitters and guys who regularly hit .250 or lower.  He had a 18.8 degree launch angle, that’s 7th highest in the league (sorted by 300 batted ball events).  In conclusion, he hits a lot of balls in the air.  Fine for a home run hitter, but is he?  His home run distance on average was 388, easily the worst for a guy who hit 39 homers last year.  He’s either going to continue to hit fly balls at a 46% rate and hit under .250 or he’s going to curb his fly balls and hit 27 or fewer home runs.  He cannot do both.  Right now, the nearest comp I can think of is Ian Kinsler in his prime, that was 30/30/.255, but I’m not convinced Ramirez’s 2nd half was just a blip.  I was all about Jose Ramirez last year, I had him ranked higher than anyone else, but this year, he seems to be going way before this, and I won’t be in again.  2019 Projections:  104/25/82/.288/24 in 582 ABs"

 

 

anyone buying this?!?!??

 

@taobball - please say you dont agree that our 2016 sleeper extraordinaire is outside the top 5!

Edited by jfazz23
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Drafted him 4th overall, arrgghhh... According to statcast, teams have steadily been throwing more breaking balls to him since 2014 and this season he is seeing them at a career high rate (31.6%)

ZiPS ROS projections- .271/57/15 HR/51/18 SB I actually asked the creator of the projections, Dan Szymborski, about the rest of season model for clarification. I wasn’t sure if this was stil

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I think pitchers adjusted and he was pressing, combined with the fact that the Indians had a huge lead in the division and maybe lost a bit of motivation. Speculating for sure here, but I'm still in on him as top 5-8 player. Dude is a player and a half.

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P.S. I made the mistake of trading FOR him right before his 2nd half slump, OUCH. So I watched him a lot. I think he's fine. Was letting some pitchers off the hook (pressing), so he just needs to take his walk or wait for his pitches to hit. 

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1 hour ago, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

Thats what I’m thinking too but I am worried about JRam’s dip in performance in the second half. Seems like some risk for a top 3 pick

 

ya thats why i started the thread.  his babip was low, but taobball has me thinking his infield popups are a concern ( up to 13% from about 10%). everything else is similar, slight increase in FlyBall% and HR/FB but i think thats just natural maturation./getting bigger stronger

 

im wondering if he was just fatigued or maybe had nagging injuries.  his overall numbers is Roto tho are awesome, and i think if his babip comes back to the norm he can be a close to 300 hitter.

 

edit: so i said the infield popups concern me....but grey also points to his home run avg.  unless they  move the fences out this doesnt concern me too much.  maybe he doesnt hit 39, but i think 30 is legit.

 

his 252 babip last year was a huge drop form 319 and 333 the prior two years.  he also increased his bb% from 8% to 15% which i love. and his Ks stayed basically the same.

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1 minute ago, jfazz23 said:

 

ya thats why i started the thread.  his babip was low, but taobball has me thinking his infield popups are a concern

 

im wondering if he was just fatigued or maybe had nagging injuries.  his overall numbers is Roto tho are awesome, and i think if his babip comes back to the norm he can be a close to 300 hitter.

Agree. People wanting to pass on him are nitpicking. Is there really any difference picking from 4-10?

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1 hour ago, jfazz23 said:

 

ya thats why i started the thread.  his babip was low, but taobball has me thinking his infield popups are a concern ( up to 13% from about 10%). everything else is similar, slight increase in FlyBall% and HR/FB but i think thats just natural maturation./getting bigger stronger

 

im wondering if he was just fatigued or maybe had nagging injuries.  his overall numbers is Roto tho are awesome, and i think if his babip comes back to the norm he can be a close to 300 hitter.

 

edit: so i said the infield popups concern me....but grey also points to his home run avg.  unless they  move the fences out this doesnt concern me too much.  maybe he doesnt hit 39, but i think 30 is legit.

 

his 252 babip last year was a huge drop form 319 and 333 the prior two years.  he also increased his bb% from 8% to 15% which i love. and his Ks stayed basically the same.

 

Mookie Betts pop-ups were up in 2017 too. We saw how that worked this year. 

 

Correlation is not causation. Yes, babip was down because pop ups were up. But what approach changes happens to bring the IF pop ups down? The dude is a legit pro bat, he has access to this data too, and I'm sure work will go into "fixing" this. 

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3 hours ago, PurpleHaze479 said:

Looks like espn removed 2B eligibility :(

 

I thought he got the number of started required last year when Donaldson came on board...

For ESPN its 20 games for next season, 10 games for in-season. He played 16 games at 2b last year. 3B only for 2019 on ESPN.

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On 1/15/2019 at 11:54 AM, TrueToTheBlue said:

 

Thats what I’m thinking too but I am worried about JRam’s dip in performance in the second half. Seems like some risk for a top 3 pick

He hit the most cumulative FBs in the Majors last year. He doesn't need a very high HR/FB rate to repeat 30.  He hit 29 the year before.

 

So this 2nd half is more important than 1.5 years previous to it towards projecting him this year? A hitter of his caliber is not capable to making adjustments to his game.  He stole 30 Bags last year and only got caught 6 times. So drafting him any lower than the top 4 is just overthinking it.

 

Sure someone like JDM is a better, safer hitter across HR/R/RBI/BA than JoRam..but he doesn't steal.

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13 hours ago, Ecofolux said:

Anyone else worried about his counting stats? Indians lineup lost E5 and Brantley. Lindor and JoRam look like the only capable hitters in that lineup

 

RosterResource has JoRam hitting 3rd behind Lindor and Kipnis.  Lindor will obviously be on base a lot and while Kipnis seems old, he's only 31, hits a good amount of doubles, and walks at a decent clip.  There is some serious speed on the back end of that lineup too, so when the 8/9 spots get on there will be a lot RBI opps.

 

Behind JoRam are Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers, not small bats.  We know what we're getting from Santana, dude is like clockwork, but Bauers is a wildcard.  If he can hit like his minor pedigree says (.270+) then its gold.  If he stumbles again then JoRam may hurt a wee bit in the R department, but all told I don't see a legit hitter like JoRam suffering that much.  He should get 100 RBIs and 90 Rs pretty easily.

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On 1/16/2019 at 10:48 PM, Fuzzy_Slippers said:

Ramirez is even better in points leagues. His K% is fantastic.

 

It's insane.  I was looking up some stats for the above post and he walked 106 times in 2018 to.... 80 strikeouts.  Ridiculous.  For comparison, Trout walked 122 times to 124 Ks. 

 

Weird stat though, JoRam has been to the playoffs in 3 separate seasons, accumulating 87 ABs.  In the postseason he's hit .195/.247 with 6 BBs to 18 Ks.  Area for improvement found.

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On 1/30/2019 at 1:56 AM, En Votto Veritas said:

RosterResource has JoRam hitting 3rd behind Lindor and Kipnis.  Lindor will obviously be on base a lot and while Kipnis seems old, he's only 31, hits a good amount of doubles, and walks at a decent clip.  There is some serious speed on the back end of that lineup too, so when the 8/9 spots get on there will be a lot RBI opps.

 

Behind JoRam are Carlos Santana and Jake Bauers, not small bats.  We know what we're getting from Santana, dude is like clockwork, but Bauers is a wildcard.  If he can hit like his minor pedigree says (.270+) then its gold.  If he stumbles again then JoRam may hurt a wee bit in the R department, but all told I don't see a legit hitter like JoRam suffering that much.  He should get 100 RBIs and 90 Rs pretty easily.

Kipnis is a garbage hitter compared to Brantley. Granted Santana isn't a slouch but....E5>Carlos Santana

 

Jake Bauers? The same Jake Bauers who hit .201 through nearly 400 ABs? Obviously JoRam is an elite bat but I'm nervous he'll be like 90/90 instead of 100+/100+

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  • 2 weeks later...

Let's just ignore the fact that over a full 2 years he basically put up a home run or stolen base every other game. He put up a career high in popups, not uncommon with a high launch angle and lack of strikeouts. I laugh at your joram hitting 250 claim. Guy had 82 k's to 78 HR/SB. Those boppers your talking about that hit 40 home runs strike out twice as much.

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