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Jose Ramirez 2019 Outlook


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On 6/5/2019 at 3:03 AM, bradwatson said:

I moved on from him a while back so I really don't care if he comes around or not, but the bolded part is why I don't see much changing. He's NOT hitting the ball hard. In fact his average exit velocity is right at league average, and his hard hit rate is well below league average. There is literally nothing in his profile that suggests a monster power streak is coming.

With that said, his underlying metrics for 2018 weren't great either, which again (feel like I've asked this multiple times in this thread) begs the question of what type of player he really is. He doesn't profile as a 35+ homer guy, he profiles more like a 15-25 homer guy.

But he's NEVER hit the ball hard. The Exit velo's have been consistent since 2017. From back when he was a 300 hitter with 29 HRs. He's always been a HR by volume guy due to high contact rate/approach. Not a HR/FB rate, raw power guy. There is nothing spectacular about a 14.1 HR/FB rate and that is all it took to get to 29 HRs.

The difference for pitchers has been focusing on throwing more fastballs up, where last year they were more about throwing fastballs away.  He's seeing less 4 seamers in the strike zone, and a lot more up in the zone. He is swinging a more high fastballs and doing absolutely nothing with them. So here we are right now.

 

Even in 2018, the BA and ISO of any fastball in the upper half that wasn't dead center was below 300. Its been a weakness to the approach he started taking that lead to all those HRs in the first half.

Its a bit of mystery because he didn't have high fastball problems in 2017...  Has his bat speed lost a tick that can no longer turn on high fastballs like when he was 24 or is it unwillingness to change his approach back to prevent him being exploited consistently?

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Drafted him 4th overall, arrgghhh... According to statcast, teams have steadily been throwing more breaking balls to him since 2014 and this season he is seeing them at a career high rate (31.6%)

ZiPS ROS projections- .271/57/15 HR/51/18 SB I actually asked the creator of the projections, Dan Szymborski, about the rest of season model for clarification. I wasn’t sure if this was stil

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11 minutes ago, Slatykamora said:

But he's NEVER hit the ball hard. The Exit velo's have been consistent since 2017. From back when he was a 300 hitter with 29 HRs. He's always been a HR by volume guy due to high contact rate/approach. Not a HR/FB rate, raw power guy. There is nothing spectacular about a 14.1 HR/FB rate and that is all it took to get to 29 HRs.

The difference for pitchers has been focusing on throwing more fastballs up, where last year they were more about throwing fastballs away.  He's seeing less 4 seamers in the strike zone, and a lot more up in the zone. He is swinging a more high fastballs and doing absolutely nothing with them. So here we are right now.

 

Even in 2018, the BA and ISO of any fastball in the upper half that wasn't dead center was below 300. Its been a weakness to the approach he started taking that lead to all those HRs in the first half.

Its a bit of mystery because he didn't have high fastball problems in 2017...  Has his bat speed lost a tick that can no longer turn on high fastballs like when he was 24 or is it unwillingness to change his approach back to prevent him being exploited consistently?

I'm with you, which is why I moved on from him. Sure a guy can have a high homer season - he proved it, but why should we expect it? If you hit the ball hard - good things happen. If you don't - you are leaving a lot up to chance.

Just look at the homerun leader boards - it's filled with guy who mash the ball, with very few exceptions. I don't like banking on exceptions.

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Just saw this in an SI article. This just can't be reality. 

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Only 25 players who have been retired for at least five years posted an OPS+ of 145 or better at ages 24 and 25. Twenty of them are Hall of Famers. The other five are borderline Hall of Famers: Fred McGriff, Will Clark, Don Mattingly, Dick Allen and Charlie Keller.

 

Jose's OPS+ the last 2 seasons were 145 and 150. As an owner in Dynasty and one redraft, this just makes me profoundly sad and confused.

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12 minutes ago, BleedRedsRed said:

Jose's OPS+ the last 2 seasons were 145 and 150. As an owner in Dynasty and one redraft, this just makes me profoundly sad and confused. 

 

For me it's more anger than sadness at this point.

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I was able to cut bait on JRam and land an elite 1B/OF option in the process, but it also cost me a very high profile minor leaguer to be thrown into the deal to make it happen.  At this point I'm just happy to be free of him.  I had envisioned him as my 3B of the future with potential 30/30 capability and he just didn't deliver. [...]

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On 6/9/2019 at 7:57 PM, Backdoor Slider said:

ZiPS ROS projections-

.271/57/15 HR/51/18 SB

I actually asked the creator of the projections, Dan Szymborski, about the rest of season model for clarification. I wasn’t sure if this was still based on who he was heading into the season or if it updates to include this year’s data.

He explained that it’s updated each day. His reply:

“A new projection for each player is generated every morning, with the new data forming the basis for a new projection. It's a simpler model than the regular ZiPS model, for practical reasons. So ZiPS saw a 142 wRC+ as Ramirez's expected midpoint going into 2019 and at this point, with the new data included, that projection going forward is only 119 for the rest of 2019.”

As a fellow frustrated owner, I was contemplating a trade and was looking at some things. This had me a little bit hopeful at the rest of season outlook (as hard as that is to do). 

And if I wasn’t an owner, and needed a “lotto ticket” to potentially win a league, I might attempt to buy low from a frustrated owner.

Do with this what you will. Just wanted to share.

 

 

If you want to buy Ramirez, do it based off what you believe, not of a computer simulator because this decline is so off the charts that I'm sure the models are doing things they've never done. He's historically in a players prime years (arrow up) 3 year averages arw great (arrow up) fall of a cliff at an unprecedented rate (so bad as to be confusing). 

 

This isn't an argument for or against buying, but realize the computers are making the smoothest fall possible. They don't like outliers. That's why rookies rarely get good projections, most rookies struggle. Most players don't go from MVP level to below replacement level at 26, so the computers aren't going to do anything except use decades of data points where people didn't fall apart at 26 to smooth Jose Ramirez's outlier of a decline. 

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I want to buy low bc I simply can't believe a young hitter can have a reverse Giolito-like turnaround year over year, but I'm not even sure what he's worth at this point. Who do you give up that you won't miss if he can't turn it around? it's not like he's being dropped (in my leagues, anyway). If you drafted him top 10 you're holding onto his stiff body and sobbing, hoping he wakes up. But you aren't letting go quite yet. Can't remember a legit stud falling off this hard in his mid twenties without injuries being the culprit. 

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Manny had a .265 babip in 2017 which killed his BA. He was top 5% in MLB in EV and his xWOBA was in line with his career average. Other than that bit of bad luck his counting stats ended up just fine. This year might be more of a case for Manny significantly not meeting expectations, but acclimating to a new team and league is one of those things, like injuries, that can dampen performance. So he has a bit of an excuse.

JoRam is just on another level of bad right now. 

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On 6/10/2019 at 7:37 AM, bradwatson said:

I'm with you, which is why I moved on from him. Sure a guy can have a high homer season - he proved it, but why should we expect it? If you hit the ball hard - good things happen. If you don't - you are leaving a lot up to chance.

Just look at the homerun leader boards - it's filled with guy who mash the ball, with very few exceptions. I don't like banking on exceptions.

His numbers are pretty similar to Alex Bregman, just a shade under in fact. There is just this huge difference in HR/FB rate. Though he's been expanding his chase zone more this year. Which may be in part putting pressure on himself because he's been struggling for so long.

You need to realize hard hit rate is per balls in play. NOT per PA. So higher contact rate guys don't NEED to put elite hard hit rates. Just respectable, by volume they are hitting just as many well struck balls as their peers to whiff way more but have higher hard hit rates.

It's just math really. He has the exact same hard hit balls (Stat cast 95+) as Hunter Renfore this year.

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[...] I'd like to hope he gets it going.  More likely just a product of being at Texas.  And he did still go 1-5... :mellow:

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Never know.. he’s got a modest 5 game hit streak going. Absolute BOMB tonight! 

Also FWIW, his BABIP after tonight is .222. At least maybe some BA correction will come his way. His career BABIP is .286

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Last 6 games,1 HR, 6 RBI, 3 BBs and 0 Ks. Not much, but it's something.

Anyone who has been holding him out of their lineup, maybe this is a good time to put him back in - Cleveland still has 2 games @TEX, then finish the month vs DET, KC, and @BAL.

 

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8 minutes ago, Backdoor Slider said:

Nice article. I’ve looked for something all year that explains JRams poor season but nothing can be found. Still elite contact skills and players discipline, fb% similar to last couple years. Just a weird thing. Maybe this article explains it and is on to something. I think his LA being increased is just a little fluky/random, it doesn’t seem drastic enough to me that it would change the outcome of his season by that wide of a margin.

Also one thing to keep in mind reading that article. It states 

 “Now don’t get me wrong, he still owns elite skills, they’re just merely less elite, or the least elite he’s displayed over his career. Not shown in the table is also a SwStk% sitting at a career high.”

That Swstr%? It’s at a measley 6.6% per FanGraphs. Still 14th best among qualified hitters. Nothing to worry about there.

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24 minutes ago, Csiebert5 said:

Nice article. I’ve looked for something all year that explains JRams poor season but nothing can be found. Still elite contact skills and players discipline, fb% similar to last couple years. Just a weird thing. Maybe this article explains it and is on to something. I think his LA being increased is just a little fluky/random, it doesn’t seem drastic enough to me that it would change the outcome of his season by that wide of a margin.

Also one thing to keep in mind reading that article. It states 

 “Now don’t get me wrong, he still owns elite skills, they’re just merely less elite, or the least elite he’s displayed over his career. Not shown in the table is also a SwStk% sitting at a career high.”

That Swstr%? It’s at a measley 6.6% per FanGraphs. Still 14th best among qualified hitters. Nothing to worry about there.

Same. And with such a drastic season from a top 5 pick, I can’t believe we’ve had to wait this long for a write up.

I was going to put in a small post with the article, but wasn’t really sure any one thing summed it up. Author seems as perplexed as many of us. Skills, for the most part, seem to still be in place though.

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1 hour ago, mlb2019 said:

even pitchers hit HRs. sell now with that recent HR.

Disagree completely. I don’t have any shares but I’ve watched several of his at bats over the past week and he looks like the JRam of 2017 and the 1st half of 2018. He’s been having really good at bats. I’m going to try to buy low. I think his buy low window will be closing soon.

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